Eriq Swan
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.61
FIP5.61
K%20.8%
BB%18.5%
K-BB%2.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 28 | 133 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 69% | 2.2 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 5.72 | 4.78 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 28 | 133 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 69% | 2.2 | 25.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 5.72 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 19 | 92 | 398 | 102 | 63 | 7 | 90% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 18.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.42 | 5.03 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 19 | 92 | 398 | 102 | 63 | 7 | 90% | 4.4 | 25.6% | 15.8% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 4.42 | 3.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 9 | 7 | 20 | 87 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 78% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 16.4% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 4.95 | 5.91 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.8% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.8% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.61 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 85 | 361 | 80 | 64 | 10 | — | — | 22.1% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.8% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 101 | 74 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.32 | 5.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 115 | 79 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.08 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 113 | 76 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 15.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.08 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.32 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 52 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 87 | 58 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 15.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.08 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 37 | 220 | 929 | 208 | 143 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 4.73 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 130 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 35 | 140 | 618 | 120 | 110 | 16 | 81% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 5.10 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 50 | 200 | 883 | 171 | 157 | 22 | 81% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eriq Swan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 20.8% | 18.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.12 | 22.3% | 6.8% | 350 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 80 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 80 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.54 | 19.6% | 17.3% | 3.5% | .267 | 5.35 | 19.4% | 4.8% | 114 | -0.19 | 4.12 | 263 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 79 |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 78 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 78 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 78 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 78 |
| Ramsey David R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 77 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | .227 | 4.60 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -0.73 | 4.60 | 529 | 77 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.86 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | .252 | 4.50 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 150 | -0.36 | 4.20 | 311 | 76 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 76 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.87 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | .276 | 6.93 | 18.4% | -4.0% | 47 | +1.06 | 4.01 | 412 | 75 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 74 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.83 | 21.7% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .298 | 6.05 | 20.3% | 0.1% | 26 | +0.22 | 5.19 | 196 | 74 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.01 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .347 | 4.69 | 17.8% | 4.1% | 319 | -0.32 | 4.41 | 421 | 74 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 74 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 74 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 73 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 110 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 1.10 | 5.27 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |