Eriq Swan

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	13	9	28	5.72	4.34	25.6%	12.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 17.3% · FIP 4.85
2025	23	A+WSH	21	19	92	4.42	3.93	25.6%	15.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 4.99
2026	24	MIX3 levels	18	7	29	4.91	4.16	28.7%	17.1%	—	K 19.5% · BB 21.8% · FIP 6.83
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.87	5.87	20.9%	19.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	5	5	30	5.66	5.63	21.8%	18.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	6	6	38	5.56	5.57	21.8%	17.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDeylen Miley (age 25) · Lucas Erceg (age 26) · Luis Quiñones (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%20.9%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	19.7%	17.3%	2.4%	2.2%	5.72	4.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	19.7%	17.3%	2.4%	2.2%	5.72	4.85	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	25.6%	12.8%	12.8%	3.0%	5.72	4.34	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	19.7%	18.2%	1.5%	2.3%	4.42	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	19.7%	18.2%	1.5%	2.3%	4.42	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	25.6%	15.8%	9.8%	1.8%	4.42	3.93	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	29	129	37	22	3	39%	1.6	19.5%	21.8%	-2.3%	4.7%	4.91	6.83	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	29	129	37	22	3	39%	1.6	19.5%	21.8%	-2.3%	4.7%	4.91	6.83	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	29	129	37	22	3	39%	1.6	28.7%	17.1%	11.6%	2.3%	4.91	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	19.8%	1.1%	3.0%	5.87	5.87	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	294	64	55	9	100%	5.8	21.8%	18.6%	3.2%	3.0%	5.66	5.63	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	61	258	56	46	8	100%	6.1	21.8%	17.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.56	5.57	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	56	238	52	42	7	100%	6.3	21.7%	17.4%	4.2%	3.1%	5.55	5.59	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	52	220	47	38	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	17.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.61	5.68	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	47	200	42	35	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	17.7%	3.3%	3.5%	5.76	5.86	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	30	127	28	23	4	100%	6.0	21.8%	18.6%	3.2%	3.0%	5.66	5.63	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	38	160	35	29	5	100%	6.3	21.8%	17.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.56	5.57	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	42	177	38	31	6	100%	6.0	21.7%	17.4%	4.2%	3.1%	5.55	5.59	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	42	177	38	31	6	100%	6.0	21.4%	17.4%	4.0%	3.3%	5.61	5.68	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	41	173	36	31	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	17.7%	3.3%	3.5%	5.76	5.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	194	819	176	145	26	100%	6.1	21.5%	17.7%	3.8%	3.2%	5.63	5.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	150	27	100%	6.0	21.5%	17.7%	3.8%	3.2%	5.63	5.29	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		52	35	149	660	130	124	18	67%	2.9	19.7%	18.7%	0.9%	2.7%	4.76	5.32	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	47	200	884	174	166	24	67%	2.9	19.7%	18.7%	0.9%	2.7%	4.76	5.32	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 17 IPFIP 5.45 → 6.83 (+1.37)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.32%	—	×0.770	19.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.99%	—	×1.150	21.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.45 → 6.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 11 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.99 (+0.72)K% 32.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.61%	—	×0.810	26.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.22%	—	×1.100	16.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 92 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.99 (+1.08)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.63%	—	×0.770	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.83%	—	×1.150	18.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.967	×1.250	2.27%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 23 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.85 (+1.13)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.61%	—	×0.740	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.68%	—	×1.180	17.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.072	×1.300	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 6 IPFIP 6.44 → 9.36 (+2.92)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.680	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.250	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.942	×1.400	12.39%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 6.44 → 9.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eriq Swan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.60	21.7%	3.8%	187	-0.27	—	—	—
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	77
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	75
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	74
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	73
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	72
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	72
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	598	71
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	70
Patrick Weigel R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP-	5.00	18.7%	12.9%	3.4%	.197	4.88	20.0%	4.0%	105	-0.12	2.64	566	70
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	70
Cam Sanders R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	22.2%	14.8%	3.1%	.232	4.30	25.8%	9.7%	170	-0.53	3.22	519	70
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	70
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	69
Brandon Morrow R 2009 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	20.1%	13.7%	3.2%	.284	3.37	25.5%	16.4%	450	-1.52	2.67	922	69
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	68
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	68
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	68
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	68
Jojanse Torres R 2021 · 6.72 FIP	25	SP-	6.72	21.5%	21.2%	5.0%	.312	7.43	16.7%	-1.0%	39	+0.71	2.67	194	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	21.5%	18.2%	1.21	5.67
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*