Eriq Swan — OGILVIE

Eriq Swan P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%20.8%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL3035

CMD3035

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	19.7%	17.3%	2.4%	2.2%	5.72	4.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	19.7%	17.3%	2.4%	2.2%	5.72	4.85	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	28	133	34	17	4	69%	2.2	25.6%	12.8%	12.8%	3.0%	5.72	4.34	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	19.7%	18.2%	1.5%	2.3%	4.42	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	19.7%	18.2%	1.5%	2.3%	4.42	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	92	398	102	63	7	90%	4.4	25.6%	15.8%	9.8%	1.8%	4.42	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	18	7	29	129	37	22	3	39%	1.6	19.5%	21.8%	-2.3%	4.7%	4.91	6.83	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	18	7	29	129	37	22	3	39%	1.6	19.5%	21.8%	-2.3%	4.7%	4.91	6.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	WSH	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	10	4	17	79	20	15	3	40%	1.7	25.3%	19.0%	6.3%	3.8%	5.71	5.45	—
2026	24	AA RAW	WSH	7	2	11	46	15	7	0	29%	1.6	32.6%	15.2%	17.4%	0.0%	4.09	2.27	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	7	0	7	30	6	6	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	19.2%	1.6%	2.8%	5.70	5.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	36	159	43	28	4	—	—	27.2%	17.5%	9.8%	2.4%	5.06	6.61	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	109	461	101	76	13	100%	5.7	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	5.27	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	121	511	115	81	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	15.9%	6.6%	2.8%	5.20	5.14	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	504	113	78	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	15.5%	6.9%	2.9%	5.14	5.13	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	116	489	109	76	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	15.5%	6.8%	3.0%	5.16	5.19	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	467	103	73	15	100%	6.1	22.1%	15.7%	6.4%	3.1%	5.26	5.32	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	104	439	95	70	15	100%	6.1	21.7%	16.0%	5.7%	3.3%	5.40	5.50	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	47	198	43	33	6	100%	5.9	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	5.27	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	80	338	76	54	10	100%	6.2	22.5%	15.9%	6.6%	2.8%	5.20	5.14	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	92	388	87	60	11	100%	6.1	22.5%	15.5%	6.9%	2.9%	5.14	5.13	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	91	63	12	100%	6.1	22.3%	15.5%	6.8%	3.0%	5.16	5.19	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	90	64	13	100%	6.1	22.1%	15.7%	6.4%	3.1%	5.26	5.32	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	85	63	13	100%	5.8	21.7%	16.0%	5.7%	3.3%	5.40	5.50	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	475	338	65	100%	6.0	22.2%	15.8%	6.4%	3.0%	5.25	4.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	187	133	26	100%	6.0	22.2%	15.8%	6.4%	3.0%	5.25	4.88	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		52	35	149	660	130	124	18	67%	2.9	19.7%	18.7%	0.9%	2.7%	4.76	5.32	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	47	200	884	174	166	24	67%	2.9	19.7%	18.7%	0.9%	2.7%	4.76	5.32	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eriq Swan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	20.8%	19.2%	2.8%	—	5.18	22.3%	6.3%	350	-0.52	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	77
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	75
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	75
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	75
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	74
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	74
Andrew Lee R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	21.4%	22.6%	1.6%	.232	4.44	19.1%	7.3%	169	-0.58	2.43	364	74
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	74
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	74
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	74
Deylen Miley R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP-	4.59	21.7%	18.4%	1.8%	.320	5.34	22.3%	4.8%	88	+0.75	2.07	185	73
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	71
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	71
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	71
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	71
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	71
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	71
Keith Weisenberg R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	15.5%	19.0%	1.0%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	162	71
Jason Bilous R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	21.5%	17.1%	2.9%	.327	5.57	18.9%	-0.1%	49	+0.54	3.71	375	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	22.0%	16.2%	1.15	5.30
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77