Cam Sanders

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	49	1	54	5.83	4.67	29.6%	17.3%	—	K 24.9% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.83
2025	28	MIX3 levels	47	0	58	2.81	3.50	27.8%	12.7%	0.7	K 25.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.50
2026	29	MIX2 levels	56	1	60	3.90	3.00	34.6%	14.1%	1.1	K 31.9% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	86	0	90	3.84	3.76	33.7%	14.3%	0.9
2028PROJ81% MLB	31	MLBBAL	69	0	72	3.98	4.04	31.8%	14.0%	0.4
2029PROJ85% MLB	32	MLBBAL	55	0	58	4.19	4.31	30.3%	13.9%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

FB Velo71

xwOBA vs60

Form2.95 ERA (proj 3.84) · K 32.1% (proj 33.7%) · BB 12.8% (proj 14.3%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsArmando Rivero (age 28) · Spencer Patton (age 28) · Jake Cousins (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 88

ERA3.84

FIP3.76

K%33.7%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%19.4%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL2020

CMD5050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p9037.0%

p9030.5%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	1	0	1	6	2	3	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	50.0%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	1	0	1	6	2	3	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	50.0%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	10.60	—
2019	22	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	20	101	429	84	53	8	95%	4.8	14.5%	14.6%	-0.1%	2.7%	2.94	5.18	—
2019	22	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	20	101	429	84	53	8	95%	4.8	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	1.9%	2.94	4.04	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	18	18	90	386	107	44	16	100%	5.0	22.5%	12.5%	9.9%	4.7%	5.32	5.39	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	18	18	90	386	107	44	16	100%	5.0	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	4.1%	5.32	4.51	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	98	429	111	60	12	49%	2.8	22.2%	14.8%	7.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.83	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	98	429	111	60	12	49%	2.8	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.26	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	51	0	65	311	97	67	6	0%	1.3	26.8%	19.4%	7.4%	2.2%	5.15	4.50	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	51	0	65	311	97	67	6	0%	1.3	31.2%	21.5%	9.6%	1.9%	5.15	4.41	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	24.9%	16.0%	8.9%	3.3%	5.83	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	24.9%	16.0%	8.9%	3.3%	5.83	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	29.6%	17.3%	12.3%	3.1%	5.83	4.67	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.3%	13.4%	1.8%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.3%	13.4%	1.8%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	27.8%	12.7%	15.2%	2.1%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	31.9%	13.4%	18.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.22	+1.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	31.9%	13.4%	18.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.22	+1.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	34.6%	14.1%	20.5%	1.9%	3.90	3.00	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	0	36	165	44	24	3	0%	1.1	26.7%	14.5%	12.1%	1.8%	5.25	3.74	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	86	0	90	380	128	54	9	0%	1.0	33.7%	14.3%	19.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.76	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	89	375	119	52	10	0%	1.0	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.98	4.04	+0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	65	0	68	286	87	40	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	13.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.31	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	69	0	72	304	97	42	8	0%	1.0	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.98	4.04	+0.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	55	0	58	245	74	34	7	0%	1.1	30.3%	13.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	0	166	712	214	100	18	0%	1.1	30.1%	14.1%	16.0%	2.6%	4.33	3.76	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	860	259	121	22	0%	1.1	30.1%	14.1%	16.0%	2.6%	4.33	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		278	57	526	2321	539	344	68	21%	1.9	23.2%	14.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.63	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	22	200	883	205	131	26	21%	1.9	23.2%	14.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.63	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 31 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.68 (+0.45)K% 38.6% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.64%	—	×0.860	33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 27 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.27 (+0.45)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.04%	—	×0.900	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.915	×1.100	2.23%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 24 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.77 (+0.80)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.37%	—	×0.810	22.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.63%	—	×1.100	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷0.891	×1.200	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 32 IPFIP 5.72 → 5.82 (+0.10)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.860	24.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.41%	—	×0.900	20.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷1.079	×1.100	4.10%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 22 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.82 (+0.85)K% 31.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.40%	—	×0.810	25.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.100	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.854	×1.200	1.63%

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 65 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.50 (+0.24)K% 31.2% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.19%	—	×0.860	26.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.54%	—	×0.900	19.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.20%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 74 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.04 (+0.48)K% 22.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.80%	—	×0.880	20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.050	15.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 24 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.13 (+1.03)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.810	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.100	12.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.010	×1.200	3.56%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cam Sanders (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	33.7%	14.3%	2.4%	—	4.16	31.1%	17.2%	157	+0.40	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SU	2.70	32.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	125	71
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	71
Jake Cousins R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	34.2%	12.3%	3.0%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	1.11	160	67
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	67
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	66
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	65
C.C. Lee R 2017 · 3.14 FIP	30	SU	3.14	28.4%	9.6%	2.2%	.359	3.03	34.7%	25.6%	25	-0.11	2.59	149	64
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	64
Parker Markel R 2021 · 4.23 FIP	30	SU	4.23	31.3%	18.5%	2.6%	.274	4.47	25.5%	10.0%	40	+0.24	3.18	266	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	62
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	62
Jeff Brigham R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	30	SU	4.15	31.2%	11.3%	4.1%	.317	5.20	27.9%	16.5%	101	+1.05	3.48	620	62
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	410	61
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	61
Erik Goeddel R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	29	SU	3.45	28.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	193	61
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	61
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	61
Jim Henderson R 2013 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	30.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.254	4.77	23.5%	13.8%	76	+1.41	1.86	167	61
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	60
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	78	31.6%	14.2%	0.98	4.12
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mark Littell ('73-'82, 7 WAR*)	2.7	66	30.7%*	13.4%*	0.74*	3.75*
Mark Clear ('79-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.0	80	33.4%*	15.2%*	0.78*	3.89*