Jeff Brigham

P Reno Aces

Age 35 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	47	0	47	6.17	6.12	23.2%	13.0%	-0.9	K 26.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.40
2024	32	AAAMIN	33	1	43	4.64	4.60	31.9%	14.1%	—	K 27.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.90
2025	33	MIX3 levels	22	1	25	5.40	4.86	32.4%	11.1%	-0.1	K 32.0% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.47
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBARI	13	0	14	4.40	4.45	25.6%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBARI	1	0	1	4.65	4.81	24.6%	10.2%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBARI	—	—	0	4.99	5.21	23.5%	10.9%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%72

FB Velo36

xwOBA vs35

CompsJean Machi (age 35) · Tiago Da Silva (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.45

K%25.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p7226.3%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	109	483	97	47	8	76%	4.3	14.5%	11.3%	3.2%	2.7%	4.39	4.78	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	109	483	97	47	8	76%	4.3	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	1.7%	4.39	3.57	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	23	123	529	112	47	6	85%	4.5	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	1.5%	4.04	3.86	—
2016	24	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	23	123	529	112	47	6	85%	4.5	21.2%	8.9%	12.3%	1.1%	4.04	3.06	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	11	11	59	244	53	20	2	100%	5.4	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	1.1%	2.90	3.48	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	11	11	59	244	53	20	2	100%	5.4	21.7%	8.2%	13.5%	0.8%	2.90	2.76	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	21	112	450	106	35	10	100%	5.3	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	2.6%	2.90	3.90	+2.0
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	21	112	450	106	35	10	100%	5.3	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	2.2%	2.90	3.31	+2.9
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	62	250	69	19	8	0%	1.3	26.2%	7.7%	18.4%	3.4%	3.32	3.72	+0.6
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	62	250	69	19	8	0%	1.3	27.6%	7.6%	20.0%	3.2%	3.32	3.47	+0.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.0
2020	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.0
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	67	284	97	31	11	2%	1.5	31.2%	11.3%	20.0%	4.1%	3.76	4.15	+0.3
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	67	284	97	31	11	2%	1.5	34.2%	10.9%	23.2%	3.9%	3.76	3.73	+0.7
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	47	207	48	27	12	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	5.6%	6.17	5.40	-0.5
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	47	207	48	27	12	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.0%	10.1%	5.8%	6.17	6.12	-0.9
2024	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	33	1	43	185	59	26	8	3%	1.3	27.4%	12.6%	14.8%	4.6%	4.64	4.90	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	33	1	43	185	59	26	8	3%	1.3	27.4%	12.6%	14.8%	4.6%	4.64	4.90	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	33	1	43	185	59	26	8	3%	1.3	31.9%	14.1%	17.8%	4.3%	4.64	4.60	—
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	25	108	35	12	6	5%	1.1	32.0%	9.4%	22.6%	7.1%	5.40	5.47	-0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	25	108	35	12	6	5%	1.1	32.0%	9.4%	22.6%	7.1%	5.40	5.47	-0.3
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	25	108	35	12	6	5%	1.1	32.4%	11.1%	21.3%	5.6%	5.40	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			94	4	121	522	124	54	23	4%	1.3	23.8%	10.3%	13.4%	4.4%	4.85	4.87	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	ARI	13	0	14	59	15	6	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	3.5%	4.40	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	ARI	99	0	104	440	108	45	17	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.81	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	328	77	36	14	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	4.3%	4.99	5.21	-0.6
2028	36	MLB CTX	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.81	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	4.3%	4.99	5.21	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	4	122	526	125	54	23	4%	1.3	23.8%	10.3%	13.4%	4.4%	4.85	4.82	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	7	200	865	205	89	38	4%	1.3	23.8%	10.3%	13.4%	4.4%	4.85	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		282	77	647	2745	582	278	83	27%	2.3	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	3.0%	3.95	4.26	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	24	200	849	180	86	26	27%	2.3	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	3.0%	3.95	4.26	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 21 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.47 (+1.00)K% 37.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.21%	—	×0.860	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×0.900	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	5.81%	÷0.904	×1.100	7.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 43 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.90 (+0.34)K% 31.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.89%	—	×0.860	27.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.05%	—	×0.900	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.32%	÷1.039	×1.100	4.58%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 9 IPFIP 7.95 → 8.20 (+0.25)K% 12.8% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.77%	—	×0.860	10.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.15%	—	×0.900	17.23%
HR / BF /BF	6.38%	÷1.003	×1.100	7.00%

Result: FIP 7.95 → 8.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 43 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.38 (+0.61)K% 37.7% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.70%	—	×0.880	33.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.050	12.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.37%	÷1.032	×1.100	4.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 24 IPFIP 1.25 → 1.64 (+0.39)K% 33.7% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.71%	—	×0.880	29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.050	8.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.100	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.25 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 52 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.30 (+0.54)K% 22.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.880	19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.050	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.952	×1.100	3.74%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 38 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.44 (+0.61)K% 29.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.29%	—	×0.810	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.43%	—	×1.100	7.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.041	×1.200	0.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 59 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.48 (+0.72)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.72%	—	×0.770	16.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.150	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷0.944	×1.250	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Brigham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	25.6%	9.6%	3.5%	—	4.98	24.2%	13.6%	182	+0.53	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	60
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	55
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	53
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	53
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	51
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	50
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	50
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	49
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	49
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	48
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	47
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	46
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	46
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	46
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	45
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	44
Jay Jackson R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	35	SU	4.61	26.5%	5.1%	5.6%	.247	5.31	25.4%	17.5%	26	+0.70	2.36	261	44
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	44
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	43
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	24.5%	10.3%	1.53	4.68
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Dave Beard ('80-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	23.1%*	10.3%*	1.50*	5.13*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51