Ismael Agreda — OGILVIE

Ismael Agreda P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%22.1%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	15	0	13	74	12	21	0	0%	0.9	11.0%	35.5%	-24.4%	0.0%	8.10	6.66	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	15	0	13	74	12	21	0	0%	0.9	16.2%	28.4%	-12.2%	0.0%	8.10	6.03	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	4	32	151	39	17	5	36%	2.9	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	4.6%	6.12	5.90	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	4	32	151	39	17	5	36%	2.9	25.8%	11.3%	14.6%	3.3%	6.12	4.28	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	24	118	28	12	0	9%	2.2	16.1%	12.7%	3.4%	0.0%	6.08	3.35	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	24	118	28	12	0	9%	2.2	16.1%	12.7%	3.4%	0.0%	6.08	3.35	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	1	24	118	28	12	0	9%	2.2	23.7%	10.2%	13.6%	0.0%	6.08	2.25	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	17.1%	18.5%	-1.3%	2.3%	3.55	5.28	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	17.1%	18.5%	-1.3%	2.3%	3.55	5.28	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	25.2%	14.8%	10.4%	1.7%	3.55	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	1.5%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	1.5%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	27.7%	12.9%	14.9%	1.1%	2.64	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	24	20	98	448	121	57	15	83%	4.1	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.8%	5.88	5.24	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	24	20	98	448	121	57	15	83%	4.1	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.8%	5.88	5.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	TEX	23	19	95	430	119	55	13	83%	4.1	27.7%	12.8%	14.9%	3.0%	5.40	4.04	—
2026	22	AA RAW	TEX	1	1	3	18	2	2	2	100%	3.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	21.00	9.67	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	7	5	1	100%	7.6	22.1%	16.5%	5.6%	2.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	106	480	128	62	16	—	—	26.7%	13.0%	13.7%	3.3%	5.83	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	134	564	130	81	15	100%	5.3	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.7%	4.94	4.83	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	29	29	163	688	162	89	19	100%	5.6	23.6%	12.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.72	4.61	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	30	30	175	739	177	89	20	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	2.7%	4.56	4.47	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	29	29	175	739	178	88	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	2.7%	4.49	4.44	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	29	29	172	728	175	87	20	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	28	28	167	706	169	85	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.57	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	160	674	160	83	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.70	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	150	634	148	80	20	100%	6.0	23.4%	12.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.87	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	140	591	136	77	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	13.0%	10.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.08	-0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	547	123	73	20	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	3.7%	5.17	5.30	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	66	279	64	40	8	100%	5.5	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	5.05	4.94	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	114	481	114	62	14	100%	5.7	23.6%	12.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.72	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	142	600	143	72	17	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.58	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	153	646	155	77	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.55	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	156	659	158	79	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	154	650	156	79	20	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	25	25	149	629	149	78	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.82	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	141	595	139	75	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	12.6%	10.7%	3.5%	4.91	5.00	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	133	562	129	73	21	100%	6.0	22.9%	13.0%	10.0%	3.7%	5.10	5.22	-0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	123	519	117	70	21	100%	6.2	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	4.0%	5.32	5.45	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	225	1330	5615	1324	703	180	100%	5.9	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.82	4.46	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	106	27	100%	5.9	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.82	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		92	49	278	1256	242	204	32	53%	3.0	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	2.5%	4.82	4.91	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	904	174	146	23	53%	3.0	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	2.5%	4.82	4.91	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Agreda (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	22.1%	16.5%	2.7%	—	4.62	23.6%	10.6%	472	-0.58	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	87
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	87
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	86
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	86
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	85
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	82
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	82
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Tyler Brown R 2021 · 5.91 FIP	22	SP-	5.91	20.2%	15.0%	4.8%	.332	5.42	19.1%	7.4%	114	-0.49	4.42	205	80
Kyle Johnston R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.10	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.42	3.80	395	80
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.3	150	23.5%	12.8%	1.14	4.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88