Ismael Agreda

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#576ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKTEX	7	5	25	3.55	3.85	25.2%	14.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 18.5% · FIP 5.28
2025	21	MIX2 levels	24	19	85	2.64	3.02	27.7%	12.9%	—	K 20.9% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.11
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	20	98	5.88	4.37	27.0%	12.7%	—	K 21.3% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.30	5.30	22.6%	16.0%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBTEX	5	5	29	5.19	5.10	23.2%	14.0%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBTEX	9	9	50	4.99	4.90	23.5%	12.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsAdrian Chaidez (age 23) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24) · Dean Deetz (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%22.6%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	15	0	13	74	12	21	0	0%	0.9	11.0%	35.5%	-24.4%	0.0%	8.10	6.66	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	15	0	13	74	12	21	0	0%	0.9	16.2%	28.4%	-12.2%	0.0%	8.10	6.03	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	4	32	151	39	17	5	36%	2.9	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	4.6%	6.12	5.90	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	4	32	151	39	17	5	36%	2.9	25.8%	11.3%	14.6%	3.3%	6.12	4.28	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	1	24	118	28	12	0	9%	2.2	16.1%	12.7%	3.4%	0.0%	6.08	3.35	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	1	24	118	28	12	0	9%	2.2	23.7%	10.2%	13.6%	0.0%	6.08	2.25	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	17.1%	18.5%	-1.3%	2.3%	3.55	5.28	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	17.1%	18.5%	-1.3%	2.3%	3.55	5.28	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	7	5	25	115	29	17	2	71%	3.6	25.2%	14.8%	10.4%	1.7%	3.55	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	1.5%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	1.5%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	85	350	97	45	4	79%	3.6	27.7%	12.9%	14.9%	1.1%	2.64	3.02	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	98	448	121	57	15	83%	4.1	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.8%	5.88	5.24	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	98	448	121	57	15	83%	4.1	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.8%	5.88	5.24	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	98	448	121	57	15	83%	4.1	27.0%	12.7%	14.3%	3.3%	5.88	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	16.0%	6.6%	3.1%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	94	395	92	55	12	100%	5.5	23.2%	14.0%	9.2%	3.1%	5.06	4.97	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	98	413	97	53	13	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.78	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	103	434	103	54	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.77	4.73	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	99	420	99	52	13	100%	5.8	23.6%	12.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	95	399	94	50	13	100%	5.9	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.81	4.84	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	88	371	86	48	12	100%	5.9	23.2%	12.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.91	4.97	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	80	337	77	44	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	13.1%	9.8%	3.5%	5.05	5.15	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	29	122	28	17	4	100%	5.8	23.2%	14.0%	9.2%	3.3%	5.19	5.10	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	50	211	50	27	7	100%	5.6	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.99	4.90	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	67	283	67	35	9	100%	6.1	23.7%	12.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.89	4.85	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	73	38	10	100%	6.1	23.6%	12.4%	11.2%	3.3%	4.89	4.89	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	75	317	74	40	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.4%	4.94	4.97	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	72	40	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	12.8%	10.4%	3.6%	5.05	5.11	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	68	287	66	38	11	100%	6.2	22.9%	13.1%	9.8%	3.8%	5.20	5.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	435	1837	430	235	63	100%	6.0	23.4%	12.8%	10.6%	3.4%	5.00	4.63	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	108	29	100%	6.0	23.4%	12.8%	10.6%	3.4%	5.00	4.63	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		92	49	278	1256	242	204	32	53%	3.0	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	2.5%	4.82	4.91	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	904	174	146	23	53%	3.0	19.3%	16.2%	3.1%	2.5%	4.82	4.91	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 95 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.24 (+1.20)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.67%	—	×0.770	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.79%	—	×1.150	14.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 83 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.11 (+1.08)K% 28.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.740	20.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.06%	—	×1.180	15.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.037	×1.300	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 25 IPFIP 3.80 → 5.28 (+1.48)K% 25.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.22%	—	×0.680	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.78%	—	×1.250	18.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.040	×1.400	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 24 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.35 (+0.96)K% 23.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.680	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×1.250	12.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.124	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 32 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.90 (+1.74)K% 25.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.680	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.250	14.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.018	×1.400	4.56%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Rangers 2 · 13 IPFIP 5.33 → 6.66 (+1.34)K% 16.2% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.680	11.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.38%	—	×1.250	35.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.163	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.33 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Agreda (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.82	23.5%	10.4%	294	-0.48	—	—	—
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	86
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	85
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	85
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	85
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	82
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	81
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	81
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	78
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	93	23.3%	13.3%	1.22	4.93
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64