Ismael Agreda
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
+0.6
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 150 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%11.0%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 74 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 11.0% | 35.5% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 6.66 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 4 | 32 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 17.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 6.12 | 5.86 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 24 | 118 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 6.08 | 3.35 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 5 | 25 | 115 | 29 | 17 | 2 | 17.1% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 24 | 19 | 85 | 350 | 97 | 45 | 4 | 20.9% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 4.10 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 2 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 78 | 40 | 10 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 91 | 386 | 91 | 45 | 11 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.12 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 103 | 46 | 12 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 124 | 50 | 14 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 139 | 53 | 16 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 147 | 56 | 17 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 150 | 57 | 17 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.10 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 150 | 57 | 17 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 146 | 56 | 17 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 140 | 592 | 140 | 55 | 17 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 135 | 571 | 134 | 54 | 17 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 127 | 53 | 17 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 120 | 51 | 16 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 112 | 50 | 16 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 104 | 48 | 16 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 31 | 188 | 845 | 159 | 143 | 16 | 18.9% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 4.30 | 4.66 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 33 | 200 | 897 | 169 | 152 | 17 | 18.9% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 4.30 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ismael Agreda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 368 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.57 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.54 | 3.13 | 319 | 93 |
| Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.86 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 4.20 | 20.3% | 6.5% | 33 | +0.34 | 3.86 | 118 | 92 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 91 |
| Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.55 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.63 | 3.55 | 139 | 89 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 89 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.47 | 19.0% | 3.7% | 211 | +0.23 | 4.24 | 311 | 88 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 88 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 88 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 88 |
| Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 88 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 88 |
| Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 88 |
| Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 88 |
| Daniel Eagen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.14 | 25.1% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .263 | 7.80 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 12 | +3.66 | 4.14 | 129 | 88 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 88 |
| Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.34 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.35 | 3.71 | 397 | 88 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 87 |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.7% | .299 | 3.73 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 103 | +0.23 | 3.50 | 196 | 87 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.87 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.68 | 2.16 | 615 | 87 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.17 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .302 | 5.82 | 12.3% | -1.5% | 12 | +1.65 | 4.17 | 110 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.8 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.7 | $17M | +$12M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.5 | $16M | +$9M |
| Totals | $19M | $106M | +$88M | ||