Ismael Agreda
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 150 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
K%22.1%
BB%15.3%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 74 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 11.0% | 35.5% | -24.4% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 6.66 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 74 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.2% | 28.4% | -12.2% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 6.03 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 4 | 32 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 36% | 2.9 | 17.6% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.12 | 5.86 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 4 | 32 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 36% | 2.9 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 6.12 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 24 | 118 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 9% | 2.2 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 6.08 | 3.35 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 1 | 24 | 118 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 9% | 2.2 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 6.08 | 2.25 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 5 | 25 | 115 | 29 | 17 | 2 | 71% | 3.6 | 17.1% | 18.5% | -1.3% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 5.23 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 5 | 25 | 115 | 29 | 17 | 2 | 71% | 3.6 | 25.2% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 3.55 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 85 | 350 | 97 | 45 | 4 | 79% | 3.6 | 20.9% | 15.4% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 85 | 350 | 97 | 45 | 4 | 79% | 3.6 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 1.1% | 2.64 | 3.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 15 | 12 | 62 | 286 | 86 | 45 | 9 | 80% | 4.1 | 23.2% | 18.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.66 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.1% | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.05 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 129 | 569 | 149 | 88 | 17 | — | — | 26.1% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 91 | 53 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.72 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 95 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 97 | 409 | 98 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 98 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 95 | 403 | 97 | 46 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 67 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 80 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 86 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 87 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 62 | 363 | 1532 | 365 | 182 | 42 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.08 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 100 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 41 | 242 | 1094 | 213 | 189 | 26 | 49% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 4.94 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 34 | 200 | 904 | 176 | 157 | 21 | 49% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ismael Agreda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 22.1% | 15.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 286 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 90 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.07 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 1.8% | .302 | 6.16 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 73 | +2.09 | 4.07 | 172 | 87 |
| Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.7% | .317 | 4.30 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.34 | 3.68 | 444 | 87 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 85 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2027 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 84 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 84 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 84 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 84 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 83 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.52 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .315 | 5.65 | 21.2% | 13.4% | 39 | +1.13 | 3.83 | 358 | 83 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 83 |
| Ben Casparius R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 83 |
| Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 83 |
| Brandon Decker R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 82 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2028 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 82 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 82 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 82 |
| Tyler Brown R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .332 | 5.25 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 114 | -0.41 | 4.19 | 205 | 81 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 81 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.70 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .252 | 4.78 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 272 | +0.08 | 4.52 | 366 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 95 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 1.05 | 4.63 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |