Keegan Zinn
P
Hill City Howlers
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%10.1%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 37.80 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 13 | 7 | 33 | 160 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 19.1% | 19.5% | 4.5% | 9.82 | 6.43 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 21 | 7 | 52 | 252 | 54 | 42 | 2 | 14.9% | 20.5% | 0.7% | 7.10 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Hill City Howlers | 3 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CLE | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 21.8% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 51 | 218 | 51 | 28 | 6 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 52 | 20 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 16 | 92 | 450 | 78 | 94 | 10 | 17.3% | 20.9% | 2.2% | 8.64 | 5.49 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 35 | 200 | 982 | 170 | 205 | 22 | 17.3% | 20.9% | 2.2% | 8.64 | 5.49 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Zinn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.8% | 11.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.26 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 149 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 91 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 90 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 90 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 89 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 88 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 88 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 87 |
| Hunter Dula R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 87 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.52 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.77 | 3.24 | 288 | 87 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 87 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 87 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 87 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 87 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||