Keegan Zinn
P
Hill City Howlers
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%21.8%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 0.8 | 7.7% | 46.2% | -38.5% | 0.0% | 37.80 | 8.30 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 0.8 | 7.7% | 46.2% | -38.5% | 0.0% | 37.80 | 12.70 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 13 | 7 | 33 | 160 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 54% | 2.5 | 19.1% | 19.5% | -0.4% | 4.5% | 9.82 | 6.44 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 13 | 7 | 33 | 160 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 54% | 2.5 | 28.1% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 9.82 | 4.62 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 52 | 252 | 54 | 42 | 2 | 33% | 2.5 | 14.9% | 20.5% | -5.6% | 0.6% | 7.10 | 4.79 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 52 | 252 | 54 | 42 | 2 | 33% | 2.5 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 7.10 | 3.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Hill City Howlers | 23 | 0 | 41 | 200 | 61 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.6% | 21.8% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 7.46 | 6.81 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 73 | 335 | 90 | 53 | 12 | — | — | 27.0% | 15.8% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 6.24 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CLE | 32 | 0 | 34 | 142 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.03 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 85 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 16 | 128 | 625 | 114 | 133 | 19 | 27% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 21.2% | -2.9% | 3.1% | 8.32 | 5.93 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 25 | 200 | 979 | 179 | 208 | 30 | 27% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 21.2% | -2.9% | 3.1% | 8.32 | 5.93 | -1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Zinn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.8% | 11.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 34 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 87 |
| Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 85 |
| Luis Romero R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 85 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 84 |
| William Kempner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 84 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.66 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .250 | 4.18 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 119 | +0.52 | 3.66 | 166 | 84 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 83 |
| Rolddy Muñoz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.14 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 2.0% | .342 | 3.51 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 149 | -0.63 | 3.27 | 271 | 83 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 83 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 83 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 83 |
| Zac Ryan R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 82 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 82 |
| Reiss Knehr R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .267 | 5.07 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 171 | +0.83 | 3.37 | 395 | 81 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 81 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.44 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.53 | 3.39 | 149 | 81 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.08 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.63 | 3.17 | 337 | 81 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 81 |
| Colby Morris R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 4.59 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |