Keegan Zinn

P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKCLE	13	7	33	9.82	4.62	28.1%	15.6%	—	K 19.1% · BB 19.5% · FIP 6.40
2025	20	MIX2 levels	21	7	52	7.10	3.95	21.4%	16.7%	—	K 14.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.88
2026	21	ACLE	33	0	60	7.35	5.15	30.4%	18.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 21.2% · FIP 6.60
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.93	5.93	21.4%	19.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	19	0	20	5.55	5.41	22.3%	16.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	27	0	28	5.22	5.06	23.0%	14.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsWill Varmette (age 21) · James Acuna (age 23) · José Mesa Jr. (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%21.4%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%1.6%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	8.30	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	12.70	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	28.1%	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	9.82	4.62	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.8%	7.10	3.95	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
2026	21	A RAW	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	30.4%	18.0%	12.5%	3.8%	7.35	5.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	19.8%	1.6%	3.2%	5.93	5.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	39	0	41	172	38	29	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	16.6%	5.8%	3.1%	5.55	5.41	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	39	0	41	172	40	25	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.22	5.06	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	19	0	20	84	19	14	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	16.6%	5.8%	3.1%	5.55	5.41	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	27	17	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.22	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	205	47	31	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.3%	7.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	128	25	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.3%	7.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		69	16	147	714	134	150	23	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	22	200	974	183	205	32	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 60 IPFIP 4.90 → 6.60 (+1.71)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.45%	—	×0.740	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.99%	—	×1.180	21.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 6.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 39 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.94 (+1.12)K% 22.5% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.46%	—	×0.680	15.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.04%	—	×1.250	20.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.388	×1.400	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 178).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 13 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.71 (+0.83)K% 18.5% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.46%	—	×0.740	13.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.46%	—	×1.180	21.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.184	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Guardians · 33 IPFIP 4.42 → 6.40 (+1.98)K% 28.1% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.680	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×1.250	19.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.984	×1.400	4.44%

Result: FIP 4.42 → 6.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Zinn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	21.4%	19.8%	3.2%	—	5.23	22.7%	7.1%	82	-0.70	—	—	—
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	88
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	83
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	81
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	81
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	81
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	81
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	81
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	81
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	81
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	80
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	80
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	40	22.3%	16.9%	1.21	5.56
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*