Keegan Zinn — OGILVIE

Keegan Zinn P Hill City Howlers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%18.6%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	8.30	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	8.30	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	12.70	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	28.1%	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	9.82	4.62	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.8%	7.10	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CLE	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	30.4%	18.0%	12.5%	3.8%	7.35	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	59	0	62	261	53	41	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	15.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.46	5.30	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	58	37	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.8%	7.6%	2.8%	5.12	4.94	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	66	277	61	34	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.7%	4.86	4.70	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	63	0	66	280	63	32	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	2.7%	4.67	4.55	0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	63	0	66	280	63	32	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.7%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	276	62	32	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	29	0	30	127	26	20	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	15.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.46	5.30	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	42	27	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.8%	7.6%	2.8%	5.12	4.94	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	51	0	54	228	50	28	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.7%	4.86	4.70	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	56	0	59	249	56	29	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	2.7%	4.67	4.55	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	58	0	61	258	58	30	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.7%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	58	0	61	258	58	30	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	0	311	1314	290	164	36	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.33	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	105	23	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		69	16	147	714	134	150	23	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	22	200	974	183	205	32	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Zinn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	18.6%	18.9%	2.8%	—	4.97	21.2%	7.2%	191	-0.89	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	84
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	84
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	83
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	83
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	83
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	82
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	81
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	81
David Landeta R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	20	SU	5.04	14.5%	15.3%	2.2%	.353	3.86	16.8%	-0.4%	64	-1.18	3.64	111	81
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	60	21.6%	13.2%	1.07	4.95
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41