Keegan Collett
P Lake Elsinore Storm| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX2 levels | 39 | 0 | 58 | 3.55 | 2.47 | 38.8% | 16.2% | — | K 29.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 3.93 | |
| 2023 | 25 | A+SD | 33 | 2 | 44 | 4.87 | 3.44 | 33.5% | 16.5% | — | K 25.8% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.85 | |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX2 levels | 23 | 0 | 32 | 6.54 | 5.72 | 21.7% | 18.4% | — | K 16.3% · BB 21.6% · FIP 6.91 | |
| 2025 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBSD | — | — | 0 | 4.98 | 4.98 | 22.1% | 13.5% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 30 | MLBSD | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5.02 | 5.09 | 21.9% | 13.4% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 2 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 112 | 36 | 22 | 1 | 20% | 2.4 | 21.9% | 24.6% | -2.7% | 1.2% | 4.56 | 5.05 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres 2 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 112 | 36 | 22 | 1 | 20% | 2.4 | 32.1% | 19.6% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 4.56 | 3.40 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | 23 | 0 | 26 | 124 | 49 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 22.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.92 | 6.35 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | 23 | 0 | 26 | 124 | 49 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 39.5% | 19.4% | 20.2% | 3.2% | 6.92 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 58 | 260 | 101 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.0% | 18.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 3.55 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 58 | 260 | 101 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 38.8% | 16.2% | 22.7% | 1.2% | 3.55 | 2.47 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 33 | 2 | 44 | 212 | 71 | 35 | 4 | 6% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 19.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.85 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 33 | 2 | 44 | 212 | 71 | 35 | 4 | 6% | 1.3 | 33.5% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 1.9% | 4.87 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 32 | 152 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 21.6% | -5.2% | 4.5% | 6.54 | 6.91 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 32 | 152 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 21.6% | -5.2% | 4.5% | 6.54 | 6.91 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 32 | 152 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 18.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.54 | 5.72 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 4.98 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 16 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 4.71 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 122 | 41 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 4.71 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 128 | 4 | 184 | 860 | 216 | 178 | 25 | 3% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 5.18 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 139 | 4 | 200 | 935 | 234 | 194 | 27 | 3% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 5.18 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 19 IPFIP 5.65 → 7.16 (+1.51)K% 19.8% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.79% | — | ×0.740 | 14.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 19.79% | — | ×1.180 | 23.35% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.12% | ÷0.953 | ×1.300 | 4.26% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).
Result: FIP 5.65 → 7.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 13 IPFIP 4.98 → 6.49 (+1.50)K% 25.0% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 25.00% | — | ×0.770 | 19.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.07% | — | ×1.150 | 18.48% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.57% | ÷0.916 | ×1.250 | 4.87% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).
Result: FIP 4.98 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 44 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.85 (+1.46)K% 33.5% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 33.49% | — | ×0.770 | 25.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.51% | — | ×1.150 | 18.99% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.89% | ÷0.848 | ×1.250 | 2.78% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).
Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 45 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.94 (+1.59)K% 41.8% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 41.84% | — | ×0.740 | 30.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 15.31% | — | ×1.180 | 18.06% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.53% | ÷0.938 | ×1.300 | 2.12% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).
Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 13 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.90 (+0.93)K% 29.7% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 29.69% | — | ×0.770 | 22.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.75% | — | ×1.150 | 21.56% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).
Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALake Elsinore Storm · 26 IPFIP 3.99 → 6.35 (+2.36)K% 39.5% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 39.52% | — | ×0.740 | 29.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 19.35% | — | ×1.180 | 22.84% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.23% | ÷0.815 | ×1.300 | 5.15% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).
Result: FIP 3.99 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 24 IPFIP 3.36 → 5.05 (+1.69)K% 32.1% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 32.14% | — | ×0.680 | 21.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 19.64% | — | ×1.250 | 24.55% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.89% | ÷1.000 | ×1.400 | 1.25% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 3.36 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).