Morgan McSweeney

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	12	0	17	2.60	2.52	19.4%	8.3%	—	K 19.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.51
2025	27	AAAMIA	13	12	61	2.21	3.44	17.1%	8.9%	—	K 14.7% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.70
2026	28	AABOS	6	4	24	5.55	2.48	27.7%	5.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 5.4% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	29	MLBBOS	1	0	1	4.63	4.63	15.9%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBBOS	12	0	13	4.71	4.78	16.3%	8.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBBOS	17	0	18	4.84	4.95	16.4%	9.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAngel Castro (age 32) · Willie Eyre (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%15.9%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	45	199	59	26	6	0%	1.5	21.9%	16.3%	5.5%	3.7%	4.43	5.36	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	45	199	59	26	6	0%	1.5	29.6%	13.1%	16.6%	3.0%	4.43	3.95	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	47	201	43	26	6	0%	1.2	18.0%	13.9%	4.2%	3.3%	4.05	5.16	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	47	201	43	26	6	0%	1.2	21.4%	12.9%	8.5%	3.0%	4.05	4.60	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	42	0	46	207	46	29	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.6%	6.5%	3.7%	5.48	5.13	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	42	0	46	207	46	29	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.4%	5.48	4.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	72	14	6	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	0.0%	2.60	2.51	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	72	14	6	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	0.0%	2.60	2.51	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	17	72	14	6	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	0.0%	2.60	2.52	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	13	12	61	246	42	22	3	92%	4.7	14.7%	8.0%	6.6%	1.5%	2.21	3.70	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	13	12	61	246	42	22	3	92%	4.7	14.7%	8.0%	6.6%	1.5%	2.21	3.70	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	13	12	61	246	42	22	3	92%	4.7	17.1%	8.9%	8.1%	1.2%	2.21	3.44	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	6	4	24	101	28	5	2	67%	4.1	22.5%	5.4%	17.0%	2.4%	5.55	3.20	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	6	4	24	101	28	5	2	67%	4.1	22.5%	5.4%	17.0%	2.4%	5.55	3.20	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	6	4	24	101	28	5	2	67%	4.1	27.7%	5.0%	22.8%	2.0%	5.55	2.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	15.9%	8.2%	7.8%	2.7%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	41	0	43	181	30	16	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	8.6%	7.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.78	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	BOS	33	0	35	148	24	13	5	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.95	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	12	0	13	55	9	5	2	0%	1.1	16.3%	8.6%	7.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.78	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	BOS	17	0	18	76	12	7	2	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	0	31	133	22	12	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	76	25	0%	1.1	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		141	16	240	1026	192	118	28	11%	1.7	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	2.7%	3.97	4.46	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	13	200	855	160	98	23	11%	1.7	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	2.7%	3.97	4.46	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 24 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.20 (+0.72)K% 27.7% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.810	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.95%	—	×1.100	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 61 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.70 (+0.23)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.07%	—	×0.860	14.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×0.900	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 11 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.34 (+0.49)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.249	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 7 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.54 (−0.01)K% 10.7% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.71%	—	×0.860	9.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 46 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.13 (+0.28)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.01%	—	×0.900	12.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷0.995	×1.100	3.74%

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 28 IPFIP 5.56 → 6.12 (+0.55)K% 16.7% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.880	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.970	×1.100	4.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 5.56 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 19 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.75 (+0.65)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.810	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.58%	—	×1.100	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.27%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 35 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.36 (+1.16)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.770	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.20%	—	×1.150	16.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.041	×1.250	3.70%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Morgan McSweeney (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	15.9%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.86	16.4%	7.6%	78	+0.23	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	90
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	85
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	85
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	82
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	82
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	82
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	81
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	81
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	80
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	80
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	80
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	79
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	16.2%	8.5%	1.11	4.71
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*