Will Varmette

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	36	2	54	6.63	3.69	29.9%	17.3%	—	K 22.8% · BB 19.3% · FIP 5.06
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	15	79	6.61	4.34	20.4%	11.8%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.7% · FIP 5.44
2026	23	MIX2 levels	45	0	58	7.14	4.00	21.9%	11.5%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.69
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.86	5.86	15.4%	16.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	21	0	22	5.60	5.53	16.9%	14.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	28	0	29	5.45	5.41	17.7%	14.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrett Lockwood (age 24) · Jeff Soptic (age 24) · Cody Scroggins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%15.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%-0.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	1	8	40	15	5	1	11%	0.9	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	2.5%	10.57	2.89	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	1	8	40	15	5	1	11%	0.9	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	2.5%	10.57	2.84	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	54	254	76	44	4	6%	1.5	22.8%	19.3%	3.5%	2.6%	6.63	5.06	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	54	254	76	44	4	6%	1.5	22.8%	19.3%	3.5%	2.6%	6.63	5.06	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	54	254	76	44	4	6%	1.5	29.9%	17.3%	12.6%	1.6%	6.63	3.69	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	79	348	71	41	9	65%	3.4	15.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.5%	6.61	5.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	79	348	71	41	9	65%	3.4	15.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.5%	6.61	5.44	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	79	348	71	41	9	65%	3.4	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.6%	6.61	4.34	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	278	61	32	6	0%	1.3	17.0%	13.8%	3.2%	2.3%	7.14	4.69	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	278	61	32	6	0%	1.3	17.0%	13.8%	3.2%	2.3%	7.14	4.69	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	58	278	61	32	6	0%	1.3	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	2.2%	7.14	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.4%	16.2%	-0.8%	3.0%	5.86	5.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	48	0	51	214	36	31	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	14.7%	2.2%	3.0%	5.60	5.53	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	42	0	44	185	33	26	5	0%	1.0	17.7%	14.2%	3.5%	3.0%	5.45	5.41	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	39	0	41	173	31	24	5	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.1%	3.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.39	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	37	0	39	163	29	23	5	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.42	5.45	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	34	0	36	152	27	22	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	3.3%	5.52	5.58	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	32	0	33	141	24	21	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%	3.5%	5.66	5.76	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	21	0	22	93	16	14	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	14.7%	2.2%	3.0%	5.60	5.53	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	28	0	29	122	22	17	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	14.2%	3.5%	3.0%	5.45	5.41	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	24	19	4	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.1%	3.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.39	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	31	0	33	139	25	20	4	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.42	5.45	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	24	19	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	3.3%	5.52	5.58	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	29	0	30	127	22	19	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%	3.5%	5.66	5.76	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	177	746	132	107	23	0%	1.1	17.7%	14.3%	3.4%	3.1%	5.50	5.14	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	121	26	0%	1.1	17.7%	14.3%	3.4%	3.1%	5.50	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		113	18	199	920	174	140	26	16%	1.8	18.9%	15.2%	3.7%	2.9%	6.92	5.00	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	18	200	925	175	141	26	16%	1.8	18.9%	15.2%	3.7%	2.9%	6.92	5.00	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 56 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.69 (+0.91)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.10%	—	×0.770	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.99%	—	×1.150	13.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 43 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.45 (+0.95)K% 20.1% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.11%	—	×0.740	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.73%	—	×1.180	13.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.936	×1.300	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 36 IPFIP 5.12 → 6.50 (+1.37)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.770	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.150	13.61%
HR / BF /BF	4.14%	÷0.941	×1.250	5.50%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 47 IPFIP 3.63 → 5.06 (+1.43)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.740	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.35%	—	×1.180	19.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.953	×1.300	2.62%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 7 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.57 (+0.92)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.770	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×1.150	25.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.916	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 6 IPFIP 3.57 → 5.13 (+1.56)K% 40.7% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.740	30.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.180	17.48%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.121	×1.300	4.30%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Varmette (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	15.4%	16.2%	3.0%	—	5.45	17.5%	3.1%	135	-0.41	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	84
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	83
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	83
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	83
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	82
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	82
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	82
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	82
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	82
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	81
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	44	17.1%	14.8%	1.19	5.58
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*