Brandon Dufault
P
Inland Empire 66ers
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 204 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%7.5%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF2525
CTRL2525
CMD2020
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 11 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 22.1% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 34 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 65 | 28 | 5 | 23.8% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 16 | 0 | 21 | 105 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14.7% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 5.66 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 22 | 14 | 70 | 341 | 57 | 57 | 3 | 12.2% | 20.1% | 1.1% | 4.89 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 16.9% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 17.8% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 17.8% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 40 | 34 | 7 | 17.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 5.51 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 38 | 33 | 7 | 17.2% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 5.60 | 5.66 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 5.70 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 32 | 31 | 7 | 16.5% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 5.81 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 30 | 29 | 6 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 5.94 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 14 | 154 | 733 | 124 | 134 | 15 | 16.9% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 4.98 | 5.08 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 18 | 200 | 954 | 161 | 174 | 20 | 16.9% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 4.98 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Dufault (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.56 | 16.9% | 16.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.44 | 17.8% | 2.6% | 182 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 90 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 88 |
| Trey Haley R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.98 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.8% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 84 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.69 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.53 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 256 | 84 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 83 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.33 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .310 | 4.55 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.78 | 4.49 | 247 | 83 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.38 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 3.14 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.24 | 3.14 | 197 | 83 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.40 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .256 | 2.93 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.47 | 2.59 | 130 | 83 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.30 | 124 | 81 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 181 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.09 | 17.1% | 19.3% | 1.8% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 81 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.72 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 203 | 80 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.87 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.27 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.27 | 313 | 80 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 80 |
| Matt Lollis R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 80 |
| Mike Hepple R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.76 | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.3% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 116 | 79 |
| Haden Erbe R 2025 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 2.6% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.24 | 116 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.