Brandon Dufault
P
Inland Empire 66ers
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 204 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 167158vR 149
ERA6.64
FIP6.64
K%10.7%
BB%20.4%
K-BB%-9.8%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 15.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 5.28 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.2% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 34 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 65 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.93 | 5.63 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 34 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 65 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 13.3% | 17.6% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 16 | 0 | 21 | 105 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 19.9% | -5.2% | 0.0% | 5.66 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 16 | 0 | 21 | 105 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.66 | 4.02 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 70 | 341 | 57 | 57 | 3 | 64% | 3.2 | 12.2% | 20.1% | -7.9% | 1.1% | 4.89 | 5.20 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 70 | 341 | 57 | 57 | 3 | 64% | 3.2 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.89 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 31 | 60 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.7% | 20.4% | -9.8% | 2.7% | 6.64 | 6.64 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 34 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 19.5% | -7.7% | 2.8% | 6.45 | 6.49 | -1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 34 | 52 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.4% | 18.9% | -6.5% | 3.0% | 6.39 | 6.46 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 19.5% | -7.7% | 2.8% | 6.45 | 6.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 19 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.4% | 18.9% | -6.5% | 3.0% | 6.39 | 6.46 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 31 | 49 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.2% | 19.1% | -7.0% | 2.9% | 6.41 | 6.09 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 103 | 163 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.2% | 19.1% | -7.0% | 2.9% | 6.41 | 6.09 | -1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 14 | 154 | 733 | 124 | 134 | 16 | 17% | 1.9 | 16.9% | 18.2% | -1.3% | 2.2% | 4.98 | 5.21 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 18 | 200 | 954 | 161 | 174 | 21 | 17% | 1.9 | 16.9% | 18.2% | -1.3% | 2.2% | 4.98 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Dufault (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.64 | 10.7% | 20.4% | 2.7% | — | 6.48 | 12.1% | -7.1% | 133 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Mike Hepple R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 116 | 78 |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 78 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 75 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 6.11 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.11 | 14.2% | 18.0% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 239 | 75 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 73 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 73 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2024 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 72 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.69 | 10.3% | 13.8% | 4.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 144 | 71 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.81 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 3.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 274 | 71 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.72 | 10.4% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.59 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 31 | -1.13 | 3.64 | 204 | 70 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2025 · 6.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.73 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 106 | 69 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.2% | 18.5% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 68 |
| Jacob Dahlstrand R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 119 | 68 |
| Nolan Santos R 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.49 | 14.5% | 20.5% | 1.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 106 | 67 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.07 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 149 | 67 |
| Roel Garcia III R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.46 | 10.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 252 | 67 |
| Ryan Olson R 2026 · 6.72 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.72 | 9.0% | 26.2% | 1.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 102 | 67 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2025 · 7.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 7.08 | 12.2% | 19.7% | 4.6% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 253 | 67 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 67 |
| Robbie Peto R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 11.6% | 19.6% | 1.09 | 6.50 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |