Brandon Dufault — OGILVIE

Brandon Dufault P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 204 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 165157vR 149

ERA6.94

FIP6.94

K%10.7%

BB%22.8%

K-BB%-12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL2525

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	17	77	24	10	3	0%	1.6	22.1%	15.9%	6.2%	3.8%	4.67	5.32	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	17	77	24	10	3	0%	1.6	31.2%	13.0%	18.2%	3.9%	4.67	4.31	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	34	0	46	210	65	28	5	0%	1.3	23.8%	15.3%	8.5%	3.7%	4.93	5.04	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	34	0	46	210	65	28	5	0%	1.3	31.0%	13.3%	17.6%	2.4%	4.93	3.52	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	16	0	21	105	19	19	0	0%	1.3	14.7%	19.9%	-5.2%	0.0%	5.66	4.38	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	16	0	21	105	19	19	0	0%	1.3	14.7%	19.9%	-5.2%	0.0%	5.66	4.38	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	16	0	21	105	19	19	0	0%	1.3	18.1%	18.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.66	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	14	70	341	57	57	3	64%	3.2	12.2%	20.1%	-7.9%	1.1%	4.89	5.22	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	14	70	341	57	57	3	64%	3.2	12.2%	20.1%	-7.9%	1.1%	4.89	5.22	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	14	70	341	57	57	3	64%	3.2	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.9%	4.89	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	6	1	0%	1.0	10.7%	22.8%	-12.2%	2.7%	6.94	6.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	34	62	8	0%	1.0	11.8%	21.6%	-9.8%	2.8%	6.73	6.77	-1.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	34	57	8	0%	1.0	12.4%	20.9%	-8.5%	3.0%	6.64	6.71	-1.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	12	23	3	0%	1.0	11.8%	21.6%	-9.8%	2.8%	6.73	6.77	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	19	32	5	0%	1.1	12.4%	20.9%	-8.5%	3.0%	6.64	6.71	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	31	54	7	0%	1.1	12.2%	21.2%	-9.0%	2.9%	6.68	6.35	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	103	179	23	0%	1.1	12.2%	21.2%	-9.0%	2.9%	6.68	6.35	-4.2
Career	—	MLE		83	14	154	733	124	134	14	17%	1.9	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	2.0%	4.98	5.06	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	18	200	954	161	174	19	17%	1.9	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	2.0%	4.98	5.06	-5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Dufault (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.94	10.7%	22.8%	2.7%	—	6.74	12.1%	-9.2%	133	-0.20	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	74
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	73
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	71
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	69
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	69
Carlos Frías R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	27	SU	6.07	10.4%	13.0%	4.0%	.299	4.42	16.9%	5.8%	31	-1.65	3.58	204	68
Ryan Olson R 2022 · 6.71 FIP	27	SU	6.71	9.0%	26.2%	1.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	102	67
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	67
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	66
Ted Stuka R 2023 · 7.45 FIP	26	SU	7.45	15.2%	36.8%	1.8%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	5.36	105	66
Ariel Peña R 2016 · 6.26 FIP	27	SW	6.26	16.2%	17.7%	4.2%	.379	4.57	21.8%	6.0%	75	-1.69	3.74	223	65
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	65
Danny Cody R 2022 · 6.32 FIP	25	SU	6.32	11.4%	18.3%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	6.32	106	65
Bret Helton R 2018 · 6.12 FIP	25	SU	6.12	13.2%	15.1%	4.0%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	312	64
Edward Baram R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	25	SU	6.38	11.8%	18.3%	3.6%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	119	64
Thomas St. Clair R 2019 · 6.24 FIP	25	SU	6.24	15.0%	25.9%	2.0%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	116	64
J.C. Flowers R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	15.8%	14.9%	3.8%	.399	5.27	15.6%	-0.9%	87	-0.48	3.59	281	63
Kris Hall R 2016 · 7.01 FIP	25	SU	7.01	12.7%	20.5%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	106	63
Tai Tiedemann R 2022 · 6.93 FIP	26	SU	6.93	8.2%	11.9%	5.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	190	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	11.6%	21.8%	1.09	6.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14