Michael Perez

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKMIA	16	1	21	3.80	3.66	26.9%	12.9%	—	K 18.3% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.44
2025	22	AMIA	21	5	64	5.32	3.29	27.7%	14.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.38
2026	23	MIX3 levels	46	1	74	3.87	3.62	34.0%	11.8%	—	K 26.2% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.36	5.36	23.5%	17.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIA	21	0	22	5.14	5.06	23.9%	15.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIA	29	0	30	5.02	4.98	24.1%	14.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control25Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Craig Schlitter (age 24) · Brandon Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%23.5%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	6	0	12	47	9	3	1	0%	1.9	19.1%	6.4%	12.8%	2.1%	3.09	3.46	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	6	0	12	47	9	3	1	0%	1.9	19.1%	6.4%	12.8%	2.1%	3.09	3.44	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	3	0	4	16	0	2	0	0%	1.3	0.0%	12.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	4.50	4.68	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	3	0	4	16	0	2	0	0%	1.3	0.0%	12.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	4.50	4.60	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	1	21	93	25	12	2	6%	1.3	18.3%	16.1%	2.2%	3.4%	3.80	5.44	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	1	21	93	25	12	2	6%	1.3	18.3%	16.1%	2.2%	3.4%	3.80	5.44	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	16	1	21	93	25	12	2	6%	1.3	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	2.2%	3.80	3.66	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	21	5	64	300	83	42	4	24%	3.1	20.5%	16.5%	4.0%	1.7%	5.32	4.38	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	21	5	64	300	83	42	4	24%	3.1	20.5%	16.5%	4.0%	1.7%	5.32	4.38	—
2025	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	21	5	64	300	83	42	4	24%	3.1	27.7%	14.0%	13.7%	1.3%	5.32	3.29	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	1	74	321	109	38	11	2%	1.6	26.2%	15.0%	11.2%	3.9%	3.87	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	1	74	321	109	38	11	2%	1.6	26.2%	15.0%	11.2%	3.9%	3.87	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	1	74	321	109	38	11	2%	1.6	34.0%	11.8%	22.1%	3.4%	3.87	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	17.1%	6.4%	3.1%	5.36	5.36	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	51	217	52	33	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.06	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	193	47	28	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.1%	5.02	4.98	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	182	44	26	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	14.4%	9.6%	3.1%	4.98	4.98	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	40	171	41	25	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	14.4%	9.5%	3.2%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	22	14	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.06	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	29	0	30	127	30	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	3.1%	5.02	4.98	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	33	20	4	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.4%	9.6%	3.1%	4.98	4.98	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	32	0	34	144	34	21	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	14.4%	9.5%	3.2%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	0	120	506	121	74	16	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.6%	9.4%	3.1%	5.03	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	124	27	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.6%	9.4%	3.1%	5.03	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		92	7	176	777	172	118	22	8%	1.9	22.1%	15.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.67	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	8	200	885	195	134	25	8%	1.9	22.1%	15.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.67	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 50 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.54 (+1.39)K% 32.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.13%	—	×0.770	24.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.03%	—	×1.150	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.62%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 17 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.94 (+1.37)K% 41.7% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.740	30.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.180	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 7 IPFIP 4.61 → 5.85 (+1.24)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	7.14%	÷1.000	×1.200	8.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.61 → 5.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 64 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.38 (+1.11)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.67%	—	×0.740	20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.180	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.035	×1.300	1.67%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 21 IPFIP 3.64 → 5.44 (+1.80)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.88%	—	×0.680	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.250	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷0.898	×1.400	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Marlins · 12 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.62 (+1.16)K% 19.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.15%	—	×0.680	13.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.250	7.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.016	×1.400	2.93%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	23.5%	17.1%	3.1%	—	5.01	24.0%	9.3%	140	-0.35	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	87
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	85
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	84
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	83
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	83
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	82
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	50	23.9%	15.3%	1.20	5.13
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*