Antonio Knowles
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.6%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 36 | 0 | 44 | 213 | 63 | 36 | 2 | 22.8% | 19.4% | 1.2% | 4.74 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 47 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 68 | 35 | 7 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 42 | 2 | 55 | 233 | 60 | 32 | 5 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 40 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 56 | 15 | 4 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 43 | 180 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 21.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 2 | 211 | 912 | 209 | 132 | 20 | 23.0% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 4.22 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 2 | 200 | 866 | 198 | 125 | 19 | 23.0% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 4.22 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Antonio Knowles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 122 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 93 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 91 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 91 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 89 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 87 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 87 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 86 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 86 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 86 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 84 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 84 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 84 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 83 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$0.3M | ||