Logan VanWey
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP4.83
SIERA4.56
K%24.2%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%10.4%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†6060
CT (3%)
SI (8%)
CH-0.6 (13%)
SL-0.9 (24%)
FB-1.3 (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 16 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 40 | 0 | 48 | 216 | 63 | 29 | 6 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 60 | 0 | 73 | 311 | 98 | 39 | 7 | 27.7% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 0 | 34 | 166 | 35 | 28 | 5 | 21.1% | 22.4% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 5.78 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 7 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 24.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 40 | 173 | 43 | 24 | 4 | 24.9% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 34 | 19 | 4 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 23.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 23.7% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 23.4% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 2 | 168 | 749 | 197 | 116 | 20 | 26.3% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.27 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 170 | 2 | 200 | 890 | 234 | 138 | 24 | 26.3% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan VanWey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 24.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.80 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 99 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 81 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 81 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 80 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 79 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 79 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 78 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.24 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .324 | 5.10 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.14 | 3.46 | 183 | 78 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 78 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 26.2% | 12.0% | 3.7% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 191 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 77 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .337 | 5.65 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 64 | +1.71 | 3.94 | 205 | 77 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 77 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 76 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 76 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 25.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .272 | 2.48 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 37 | -1.17 | 2.48 | 138 | 76 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.