Alejandro Hidalgo

P St. Paul Saints

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	A+MIN	21	8	58	5.28	5.39	20.7%	18.9%	—	K 16.0% · BB 21.7% · FIP 6.05
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	85	6.48	4.69	25.6%	11.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.82
2026	23	MIX2 levels	43	0	66	6.55	6.49	29.4%	11.1%	—	K 24.7% · BB 10.8% · FIP 7.20
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	9	0	9	5.92	5.92	23.4%	13.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBMIN	33	0	35	5.67	5.61	23.9%	12.0%	-0.4
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBMIN	43	0	45	5.51	5.47	24.2%	11.7%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsAustin Bergner (age 24) · Grant Ford (age 23) · Tanner Burns (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%23.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	7	6	27	118	31	9	6	86%	3.9	17.9%	9.5%	8.3%	6.0%	4.67	6.11	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	7	6	27	118	31	9	6	86%	3.9	26.3%	7.6%	18.6%	5.1%	4.67	4.69	—
2022	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	10	10	39	175	58	19	3	100%	3.9	24.5%	12.8%	11.7%	2.5%	4.62	4.03	—
2022	19	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	10	10	39	175	58	19	3	100%	3.9	33.1%	10.9%	22.3%	1.7%	4.62	2.59	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	8	58	275	57	52	7	38%	2.8	16.0%	21.7%	-5.8%	2.8%	5.28	6.05	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	8	58	275	57	52	7	38%	2.8	20.7%	18.9%	1.8%	2.5%	5.28	5.39	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	85	387	99	46	15	100%	3.5	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.9%	6.48	5.82	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	85	387	99	46	15	100%	3.5	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.9%	6.48	5.82	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	85	387	99	46	15	100%	3.5	25.6%	11.9%	13.7%	3.9%	6.48	4.69	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	66	296	87	33	23	0%	1.5	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	8.8%	6.55	7.20	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	66	296	87	33	23	0%	1.5	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	8.8%	6.55	7.20	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	66	296	87	33	23	0%	1.5	29.4%	11.1%	18.2%	7.8%	6.55	6.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	9	0	9	38	9	5	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	5.0%	5.92	5.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	68	0	72	303	72	36	14	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	4.8%	5.67	5.61	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	276	67	32	13	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	4.7%	5.51	5.47	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	59	0	62	261	63	30	12	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	4.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	245	59	28	11	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	4.7%	5.46	5.50	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	54	227	54	27	11	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	4.8%	5.56	5.63	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	50	0	52	220	56	25	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	5.0%	5.55	5.54	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	33	0	35	148	35	18	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	4.8%	5.67	5.61	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	43	0	45	190	46	22	9	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	4.7%	5.51	5.47	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	50	24	10	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	4.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	49	24	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	4.7%	5.46	5.50	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	47	23	10	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	4.8%	5.56	5.63	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	50	22	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	5.0%	5.55	5.54	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		260	0	273	1152	279	134	55	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.6%	12.5%	4.8%	5.52	5.15	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	98	40	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.6%	12.5%	4.8%	5.52	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		105	48	275	1251	258	178	64	46%	2.6	20.6%	14.2%	6.4%	5.1%	5.80	5.97	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	35	200	911	188	129	47	46%	2.6	20.6%	14.2%	6.4%	5.1%	5.80	5.97	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 45 IPFIP 6.59 → 7.20 (+0.60)K% 26.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.11%	—	×0.860	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×0.900	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	7.88%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.59 → 7.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 21 IPFIP 5.64 → 7.21 (+1.56)K% 36.6% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.56%	—	×0.810	29.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.100	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	7.53%	÷1.000	×1.200	9.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.64 → 7.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 63 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.30 (+1.29)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.86%	—	×0.770	21.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.150	13.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷0.962	×1.250	4.18%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 22 IPFIP 6.06 → 7.20 (+1.14)K% 19.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.63%	—	×0.810	15.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×1.100	13.36%
HR / BF /BF	5.61%	÷0.986	×1.200	6.82%

Result: FIP 6.06 → 7.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 58 IPFIP 5.14 → 6.05 (+0.91)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.770	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.91%	—	×1.150	21.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.134	×1.250	2.81%

Result: FIP 5.14 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 39 IPFIP 2.62 → 4.03 (+1.41)K% 33.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.740	24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.86%	—	×1.180	12.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷0.889	×1.300	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Angels · 27 IPFIP 4.64 → 6.11 (+1.47)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.680	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.63%	—	×1.250	9.53%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷1.179	×1.400	6.04%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Hidalgo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	5.0%	—	5.51	24.1%	12.3%	199	-0.41	—	—	—
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	86
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	84
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	80
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	80
Danny Cody R 2021 · 6.32 FIP	24	SW	6.32	20.5%	15.0%	5.6%	.369	6.32	11.4%	-6.9%	37	+0.00	6.32	106	79
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	76
Shane Rademacher R 2024 · 5.33 FIP	23	SW	5.33	20.1%	9.1%	5.1%	.377	5.86	13.5%	5.8%	190	+0.53	5.33	275	75
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	75
Diego Granado R 2021 · 5.62 FIP	24	SW	5.62	17.2%	8.5%	5.3%	.335	4.35	15.5%	1.1%	40	-1.27	4.35	110	74
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	73
Joey Matulovich R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SW	5.38	21.9%	12.5%	4.6%	.295	4.61	18.7%	8.2%	59	-0.77	3.22	201	72
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	72
Peyton Stumbo R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	19.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.326	4.93	15.6%	6.8%	211	-0.18	4.10	279	72
Jack Noble R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	24	SU	6.03	20.3%	12.1%	5.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	125	71
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	71
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	71
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	71
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	70
Adrian De Horta R 2019 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	28.2%	16.0%	5.4%	.280	6.28	20.7%	6.4%	69	+0.56	3.81	232	70
Mike Shawaryn R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	24	SW	5.25	19.7%	13.3%	3.9%	.279	4.69	23.9%	-4.6%	12	-0.56	3.51	406	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	65	24.0%	12.0%	1.86	5.61
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Frank LaCorte ('75-'84, -4 WAR*)	2.5	61	25.0%*	12.0%*	1.43*	5.83*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59