Alejandro Hidalgo

Alejandro Hidalgo P Wichita Wind Surge

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2030

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.5%

IP85

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Angels	7	6	27	118	31	9	6	17.9%	9.5%	5.3%	4.67	5.71	-0.2
2022	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	10	10	39	175	58	19	3	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	4.62	4.05	+0.4
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	8	58	275	57	52	7	16.0%	21.7%	2.8%	5.28	6.04	-0.7
2025	22	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	24	24	85	387	99	46	15	19.9%	13.5%	4.9%	6.48	5.83	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	4	0	7	27	15	2	2	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	MIN	15	15	85	358	76	42	13	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	5.14	5.14	+0.0
2026 Total	23	MLB	MIN	—	—	92	385	91	44	15	23.7%	11.5%	3.8%	5.04	4.75	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	MIN	19	19	103	434	95	46	15	21.9%	10.6%	3.5%	4.95	4.89	+0.5
2028	25	MLB	MIN	21	21	116	490	109	49	17	22.3%	9.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.74	+0.7
2029	26	MLB	MIN	22	22	123	520	117	51	18	22.5%	9.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.69	+0.9
2030	27	MLB	MIN	23	23	126	533	120	52	18	22.5%	9.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.69	+0.9
2031	28	MLB	MIN	23	23	126	533	120	52	18	22.4%	9.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	+0.8
2032	29	MLB	MIN	22	22	124	521	116	52	18	22.3%	9.9%	3.5%	4.74	4.76	+0.8
2033	30	MLB	MIN	22	22	120	506	112	51	18	22.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.79	4.83	+0.6
2034	31	MLB	MIN	21	21	116	488	107	49	18	21.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.86	4.90	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	MIN	20	20	111	469	101	48	17	21.6%	10.3%	3.7%	4.94	4.99	+0.4
2036	33	MLB	MIN	19	19	106	448	95	47	17	21.3%	10.4%	3.8%	5.03	5.09	+0.3
2037	34	MLB	MIN	18	18	101	425	89	45	17	20.9%	10.7%	3.9%	5.13	5.20	+0.1
2038	35	MLB	MIN	17	17	95	401	82	44	16	20.5%	10.9%	4.0%	5.24	5.32	-0.1
2039	36	MLB	MIN	16	16	89	375	75	42	15	20.1%	11.1%	4.1%	5.37	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			66	48	216	982	200	148	39	20.4%	15.0%	4.0%	5.51	5.49	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—			61	45	200	911	185	137	36	20.4%	15.0%	4.0%	5.51	5.49	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Hidalgo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	—	4.77	22.2%	12.1%	342	-0.37	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	95
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	95
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	93
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	91
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	90
Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	18.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.17	5.16	116	89
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	89
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	89
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	88
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	88
Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.77 FIP	23	SP-	5.77	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	5.06	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.71	5.06	144	88
Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	23	SP-	5.28	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.7%	10.6%	274	-0.91	3.25	364	88
Bryce Osmond R 2025 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP-	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.47	12.2%	-2.9%	16	+1.91	5.56	113	88
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	88
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	19.7%	11.6%	3.5%	.353	4.80	20.5%	8.2%	305	-0.01	3.98	481	88
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	88
Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	20.7%	10.9%	3.2%	.309	3.67	27.7%	16.5%	64	-0.80	3.67	219	87
Zach Messinger R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.92	18.0%	7.9%	217	-1.35	3.71	397	87
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.5	$3M	+$0.6M
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$13M