Shane Rademacher

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 249 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ASF	26	7	85	4.89	3.87	27.1%	7.7%	—	K 20.1% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.33
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	21	127	3.69	4.88	16.0%	6.0%	—	K 12.4% · BB 6.7% · FIP 5.73
2026	25	AASF	31	2	63	4.69	5.23	19.4%	8.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 9.7% · FIP 6.13
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	1	0	1	5.60	5.60	13.0%	8.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	30	0	32	5.49	5.50	13.9%	8.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	40	0	42	5.45	5.49	14.4%	8.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control65Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJosh Roeder (age 26) · Jorge Reyes (age 27) · Donovan Hand (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%13.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	2	1	4	15	5	1	0	50%	2.0	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	2.25	1.13	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	2	1	4	15	5	1	0	50%	2.0	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	2.25	1.35	—
2024	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	7	85	376	102	29	14	27%	3.3	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	5.1%	4.89	5.33	—
2024	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	7	85	376	102	29	14	27%	3.3	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	5.1%	4.89	5.33	—
2024	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	26	7	85	376	102	29	14	27%	3.3	27.1%	7.7%	19.4%	3.7%	4.89	3.87	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	127	518	83	31	23	75%	4.5	12.4%	6.7%	5.7%	5.2%	3.69	5.73	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	127	518	83	31	23	75%	4.5	12.4%	6.7%	5.7%	5.2%	3.69	5.73	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	127	518	83	31	23	75%	4.5	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	4.4%	3.69	4.88	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	31	2	63	273	53	24	13	6%	2.0	15.7%	9.7%	6.1%	5.7%	4.69	6.13	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	31	2	63	273	53	24	13	6%	2.0	15.7%	9.7%	6.1%	5.7%	4.69	6.13	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	31	2	63	273	53	24	13	6%	2.0	19.4%	8.8%	10.6%	4.8%	4.69	5.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	13.0%	8.1%	4.9%	4.0%	5.60	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	80	0	84	355	49	29	14	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.1%	5.8%	3.9%	5.49	5.50	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	68	0	71	301	43	25	12	0%	1.0	14.4%	8.2%	6.2%	4.0%	5.45	5.49	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	39	23	11	0%	1.0	14.5%	8.4%	6.1%	4.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	243	35	21	10	0%	1.0	14.3%	8.7%	5.6%	4.3%	5.61	5.70	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	19	11	5	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.1%	5.8%	3.9%	5.49	5.50	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	40	0	42	177	25	15	7	0%	1.1	14.4%	8.2%	6.2%	4.0%	5.45	5.49	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	28	16	8	0%	1.0	14.5%	8.4%	6.1%	4.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	27	17	8	0%	1.0	14.3%	8.7%	5.6%	4.3%	5.61	5.70	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	0	164	694	99	58	28	0%	1.1	14.3%	8.4%	5.9%	4.1%	5.51	5.19	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	121	71	34	0%	1.1	14.3%	8.4%	5.9%	4.1%	5.51	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		87	31	279	1182	188	96	61	36%	3.2	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	5.2%	4.26	5.64	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	22	200	848	135	69	44	36%	3.2	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	5.2%	4.26	5.64	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 63 IPFIP 5.19 → 6.13 (+0.95)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.41%	—	×0.810	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×1.100	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 97 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.84 (+0.94)K% 18.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.49%	—	×0.770	14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.91%	—	×1.150	4.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.980	×1.250	4.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 30 IPFIP 7.95 → 8.31 (+0.36)K% 9.0% → 7.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.96%	—	×0.810	7.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.100	13.13%
HR / BF /BF	7.46%	÷1.183	×1.200	7.57%

Result: FIP 7.95 → 8.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 85 IPFIP 3.83 → 5.33 (+1.50)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.13%	—	×0.740	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.71%	—	×1.180	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.72%	÷0.959	×1.300	5.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Rademacher (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	13.0%	8.1%	4.0%	—	5.51	14.2%	6.0%	219	-0.09	—	—	—
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	87
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	86
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	82
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	80
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	80
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Dominic DeMasi R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	13.0%	6.9%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	275	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	78
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	78
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78
Wilton Lopez R 2009 · 5.62 FIP	26	SW	5.62	9.3%	8.2%	4.1%	.368	2.79	19.5%	16.6%	204	-2.83	2.51	299	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Matt Roney R 2003 · 5.54 FIP	23	SW	5.54	10.5%	9.8%	3.8%	.249	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	101	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	69	14.0%	8.3%	1.56	5.52
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*