Peyton Stumbo
P
Altoona Curve
+0.4
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2029
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.1%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 5 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 37 | 3 | 68 | 296 | 76 | 26 | 10 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 4.92 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 21 | 90 | 382 | 81 | 27 | 7 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.30 | 4.11 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 3 | 2 | 11 | 54 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 7.94 | 5.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 71 | 32 | 10 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 94 | 403 | 77 | 36 | 12 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.96 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 85 | 36 | 12 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 92 | 38 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 95 | 39 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 39 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 93 | 39 | 13 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 89 | 38 | 13 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 85 | 37 | 13 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 81 | 36 | 13 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 76 | 35 | 13 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 71 | 34 | 12 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 30 | 12 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.76 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 66 | 29 | 12 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 60 | 28 | 11 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 26 | 175 | 755 | 125 | 66 | 24 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.57 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 30 | 200 | 861 | 143 | 75 | 27 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.57 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peyton Stumbo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 304 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 97 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 94 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 93 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 93 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 91 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 91 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 90 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 89 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 88 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 88 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.12 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.39 | 3.50 | 472 | 87 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $39M | +$31M | ||