Peyton Stumbo — OGILVIE

Peyton Stumbo P Altoona Curve

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%15.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.00	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.15	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.92	3.93	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	1.8%	4.30	3.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	18.9%	8.4%	10.5%	3.9%	6.23	4.72	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	24	4	2	1	100%	5.7	15.3%	8.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	127	586	110	49	23	—	—	18.7%	8.4%	10.3%	3.9%	6.17	5.53	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	120	508	85	43	15	100%	5.7	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.76	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	120	508	89	43	15	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.72	4.69	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	118	500	88	42	15	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	485	86	42	15	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.6%	9.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.78	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	110	463	81	41	15	100%	6.1	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	103	435	74	40	15	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.1%	7.9%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	53	224	37	19	6	100%	5.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.7%	4.68	4.64	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	59	28	9	100%	6.2	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.57	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	92	388	69	33	11	100%	6.1	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	97	410	72	35	12	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.61	4.65	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	96	405	71	36	12	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.71	4.78	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	67	36	13	100%	5.8	17.1%	9.1%	7.9%	3.2%	4.85	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	511	2158	375	187	62	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.32	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	73	24	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		94	50	285	1263	206	114	48	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	885	144	80	34	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Stumbo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	15.3%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.72	17.3%	8.8%	359	-0.20	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	82
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	82
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	81
Zach Lewis R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP-	4.14	14.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	266	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	108	17.1%	8.7%	1.19	4.80
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38