Peyton Stumbo

P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APIT	37	3	68	4.92	3.93	25.7%	8.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.11
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	21	90	4.30	3.21	21.2%	7.1%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.10
2026	24	AAPIT	27	26	121	6.23	4.87	18.9%	8.4%	—	K 15.3% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	1	1	2	5.43	5.43	13.9%	9.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPIT	6	6	37	5.27	5.24	15.5%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPIT	8	8	48	5.20	5.20	16.0%	8.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control60Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsHunter Adkins (age 25) · Bryce Morrow (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%13.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.15	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.92	3.93	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	1.8%	4.30	3.21	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	18.9%	8.4%	10.5%	3.9%	6.23	4.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	13.9%	9.0%	5.0%	3.6%	5.43	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	85	359	56	32	13	100%	6.1	15.5%	8.8%	6.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	75	318	51	28	11	100%	5.8	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.6%	5.20	5.20	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	70	294	48	26	11	100%	5.8	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.24	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	64	271	44	25	10	100%	5.8	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	58	245	39	23	10	100%	5.8	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	37	156	24	14	6	100%	6.2	15.5%	8.8%	6.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.24	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	48	203	32	18	7	100%	6.0	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.6%	5.20	5.20	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	53	224	36	20	8	100%	5.9	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.24	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	52	220	35	20	8	100%	5.8	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	50	211	33	20	8	100%	6.2	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	240	1014	161	91	38	100%	6.0	15.9%	9.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.27	4.93	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	134	76	32	100%	6.0	15.9%	9.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.27	4.93	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		94	50	285	1263	206	114	48	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	885	144	80	34	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 121 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.55 (+0.84)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.86%	—	×0.810	15.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.36%	—	×1.100	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 49 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.76 (+0.99)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.01%	—	×0.740	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.83%	—	×1.180	4.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷0.932	×1.300	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 41 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.52 (+0.78)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.23%	—	×0.770	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.150	12.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.048	×1.250	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 68 IPFIP 3.90 → 5.11 (+1.22)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.68%	—	×0.740	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×1.180	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.046	×1.300	4.20%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 6 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.35 (+0.35)K% 13.0% → 8.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.680	8.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Stumbo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	13.9%	9.0%	3.6%	—	5.23	15.9%	7.0%	230	-0.20	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	81
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	80
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	80
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Ryan Long R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	15.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.239	4.87	18.7%	8.7%	159	-0.42	4.20	433	78
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	15.5%	9.0%	1.42	5.30
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*