Ryan Long
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA5.31
FIP5.31
K%13.0%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%2.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | 5 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 80% | 1.4 | 21.9% | 3.1% | 18.8% | 6.2% | 7.71 | 5.08 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | 5 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 80% | 1.4 | 21.9% | 3.1% | 18.8% | 6.2% | 7.71 | 5.24 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 10 | 73 | 315 | 73 | 31 | 6 | 48% | 3.5 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 3.10 | 4.20 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 10 | 73 | 315 | 73 | 31 | 6 | 48% | 3.5 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 3.10 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 108 | 442 | 113 | 35 | 12 | 44% | 4.0 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 108 | 442 | 113 | 35 | 12 | 44% | 4.0 | 25.6% | 7.9% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 98 | 424 | 83 | 34 | 21 | 56% | 3.9 | 15.9% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 4.90 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 98 | 424 | 83 | 34 | 21 | 56% | 3.9 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 5.34 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 16 | 94 | 416 | 65 | 37 | 12 | 57% | 3.4 | 13.1% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.41 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 16 | 94 | 416 | 65 | 37 | 12 | 57% | 3.4 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 0 | 40 | 186 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 5.80 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 38 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 110 | 482 | 95 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 5.49 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 13.0% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 41 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 41 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.6% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 0 | 78 | 330 | 47 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 120 | 90 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 56 | 420 | 1815 | 320 | 180 | 54 | 43% | 3.2 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 27 | 200 | 865 | 152 | 86 | 26 | 43% | 3.2 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 13.0% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.25 | 14.3% | 3.6% | 136 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 90 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 85 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 85 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 82 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 81 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 81 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 81 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 80 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 80 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 80 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 79 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 79 |
| Casey Coleman R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.22 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.3% | .349 | 4.18 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.86 | 306 | 79 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 78 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 78 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 13.9% | 10.7% | 1.14 | 5.25 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |