Ryan Long

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	14	98	5.34	5.24	19.6%	8.0%	—	K 15.9% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.29
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	16	94	4.01	4.55	15.6%	8.9%	—	K 13.1% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.65
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	0	68	5.16	4.39	31.8%	10.7%	—	K 26.3% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	1	0	1	5.32	5.32	18.8%	11.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBBAL	19	0	20	5.27	5.30	19.2%	11.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBBAL	24	0	25	5.29	5.36	19.2%	11.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJorge Reyes (age 27) · Taylor Grover (age 26) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%18.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	5	4	7	32	7	1	2	80%	1.4	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	6.2%	7.71	5.08	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Orange	5	4	7	32	7	1	2	80%	1.4	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	6.2%	7.71	5.24	—
2022	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	10	73	315	73	31	6	48%	3.5	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	2.2%	3.10	4.33	—
2022	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	10	73	315	73	31	6	48%	3.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	1.9%	3.10	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	108	442	113	35	12	44%	4.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	12	108	442	113	35	12	44%	4.0	25.6%	7.9%	17.6%	2.7%	4.26	3.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	4.3%	5.34	5.29	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	4.3%	5.34	5.29	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	19.6%	8.0%	11.6%	5.0%	5.34	5.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	13.1%	9.6%	3.5%	2.6%	4.01	4.65	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	13.1%	9.6%	3.5%	2.6%	4.01	4.65	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.9%	4.01	4.55	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	299	95	32	14	0%	1.6	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	5.4%	5.16	5.16	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	299	95	32	14	0%	1.6	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	5.4%	5.16	5.16	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	68	299	95	32	14	0%	1.6	31.8%	10.7%	21.1%	4.7%	5.16	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.3%	7.6%	3.6%	5.32	5.32	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	50	0	53	222	43	25	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.27	5.30	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	42	0	44	187	36	21	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.3%	8.0%	3.8%	5.29	5.36	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	19	0	20	84	16	9	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.27	5.30	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	24	0	25	106	20	12	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.3%	8.0%	3.8%	5.29	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	188	36	21	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.28	4.95	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	95	32	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.7%	5.28	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		149	56	447	1928	350	188	68	38%	3.0	18.2%	9.7%	8.4%	3.5%	4.45	4.72	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	25	200	862	157	84	30	38%	3.0	18.2%	9.7%	8.4%	3.5%	4.45	4.72	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 39 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.62 (+1.20)K% 37.6% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.58%	—	×0.810	30.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.28%	—	×1.100	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 29 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.76 (+0.40)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.35%	—	×0.860	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.38%	—	×0.900	12.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.93%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.42%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 91 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.65 (+0.31)K% 16.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.21%	—	×0.810	13.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.73%	—	×1.100	9.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.64%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 93 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.29 (+0.33)K% 19.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.60%	—	×0.810	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.44%	—	×1.100	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	4.47%	÷1.249	×1.200	4.29%

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 5 IPFIP 9.33 → 10.37 (+1.04)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	14.29%	÷0.996	×1.100	15.77%

Result: FIP 9.33 → 10.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 61 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.53 (+1.07)K% 30.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.770	23.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.63%	—	×1.150	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.912	×1.250	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 47 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.97 (+0.42)K% 20.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.39%	—	×0.810	16.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.25%	—	×1.100	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷1.208	×1.200	3.86%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 73 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.33 (+0.89)K% 23.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.17%	—	×0.740	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×1.180	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.128	×1.300	2.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	18.8%	11.3%	3.6%	—	5.33	19.2%	8.0%	97	+0.01	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	86
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	78
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	77
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	77
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	76
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	76
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.0%	11.2%	1.43	5.30
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*