Ryan Long — OGILVIE

Ryan Long P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%13.0%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	5	4	7	32	7	1	2	80%	1.4	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	6.2%	7.71	5.08	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Orange	5	4	7	32	7	1	2	80%	1.4	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	6.2%	7.71	5.24	—
2022	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	10	73	315	73	31	6	48%	3.5	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	2.2%	3.10	4.33	—
2022	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	10	73	315	73	31	6	48%	3.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	1.9%	3.10	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	108	442	113	35	12	44%	4.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	108	442	113	35	12	44%	4.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	12	108	442	113	35	12	44%	4.0	25.6%	7.9%	17.6%	2.7%	4.26	3.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	4.3%	5.34	5.29	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	4.3%	5.34	5.29	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	98	424	83	34	21	56%	3.9	19.6%	8.0%	11.6%	5.0%	5.34	5.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	13.1%	9.6%	3.5%	2.6%	4.01	4.65	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	13.1%	9.6%	3.5%	2.6%	4.01	4.65	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	16	94	416	65	37	12	57%	3.4	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.9%	4.01	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	41	0	65	287	90	30	14	0%	1.6	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	5.6%	5.40	5.32	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	41	0	65	287	90	30	14	0%	1.6	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	5.6%	5.40	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	BAL	25	0	39	157	59	13	7	0%	1.5	37.6%	8.3%	29.3%	4.5%	4.42	3.42	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BAL	16	0	26	130	31	17	7	0%	1.6	23.8%	13.1%	10.8%	5.4%	6.84	5.70	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	13.0%	10.7%	2.3%	3.1%	5.43	5.43	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	71	312	93	33	15	—	—	29.9%	10.5%	19.4%	4.7%	5.40	5.33	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	82	0	87	366	51	38	11	0%	1.1	13.9%	10.5%	3.4%	3.1%	5.34	5.35	-0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	80	0	84	355	51	37	11	0%	1.1	14.4%	10.4%	4.0%	3.2%	5.31	5.35	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	339	49	36	11	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.5%	4.0%	3.4%	5.36	5.43	-0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	72	0	75	318	52	32	11	0%	1.0	16.4%	9.9%	6.4%	3.5%	5.31	5.31	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	31	0	33	139	19	15	4	0%	1.1	13.9%	10.5%	3.4%	3.1%	5.34	5.35	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	48	0	50	211	30	22	7	0%	1.0	14.4%	10.4%	4.0%	3.2%	5.31	5.35	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	54	0	57	241	35	25	8	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.5%	4.0%	3.4%	5.36	5.43	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	56	0	59	249	41	25	9	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.9%	6.4%	3.5%	5.31	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		189	0	198	838	125	86	28	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	3.3%	5.33	4.98	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	87	28	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	3.3%	5.33	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		147	56	444	1916	345	186	68	38%	3.0	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	3.5%	4.48	4.74	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	25	200	862	155	84	30	38%	3.0	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	3.5%	4.48	4.74	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	13.0%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.38	14.2%	3.8%	251	-0.05	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	89
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	84
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	84
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	83
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	82
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	81
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	79
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	79
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	78
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	78
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	77
Matthew Grimes R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	26	SW	4.65	14.7%	10.9%	2.6%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	451	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	79	14.4%	10.4%	1.26	5.35
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77