Ryan Long
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.5%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%8.1%
IP94
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | 5 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 10 | 73 | 315 | 73 | 31 | 6 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 3.10 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 12 | 108 | 442 | 113 | 35 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 14 | 98 | 424 | 83 | 34 | 21 | 15.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 5.34 | 5.25 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 28 | 16 | 94 | 416 | 65 | 37 | 12 | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 4 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 62 | 42 | 12 | 15.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 102 | 433 | 71 | 46 | 13 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 5.22 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 67 | 42 | 13 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 69 | 42 | 13 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 68 | 41 | 13 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 65 | 40 | 13 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 62 | 39 | 12 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 5.15 | 5.19 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 85 | 361 | 59 | 38 | 12 | 16.3% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 55 | 37 | 12 | 16.0% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 58 | 33 | 12 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 53 | 32 | 11 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 48 | 30 | 11 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 56 | 387 | 1667 | 281 | 160 | 53 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.63 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 29 | 200 | 861 | 145 | 83 | 27 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.63 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 15.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.08 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 289 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 91 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 88 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 88 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 88 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 88 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 88 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 87 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 86 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 86 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 86 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .356 | 5.73 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.57 | 4.61 | 177 | 86 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .344 | 4.99 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.37 | 4.37 | 412 | 85 |
| Casey Sadler R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .250 | 3.69 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.21 | 2.21 | 385 | 85 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.08 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.40 | 3.83 | 550 | 85 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.