Jack Noble

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	13	12	66	2.98	3.34	22.9%	10.9%	—	K 16.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.42
2024	24	MIX3 levels	35	1	65	5.29	4.52	26.5%	10.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 6.03
2025	25	MIX3 levels	14	0	17	5.94	5.56	17.6%	6.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.44
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.60	4.60	22.6%	10.6%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBMIN	11	0	12	4.62	4.65	22.5%	10.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	3	1	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.83	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	3	1	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	66	275	63	30	4	92%	5.1	16.5%	13.1%	3.5%	1.9%	2.98	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	66	275	63	30	4	92%	5.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.5%	2.98	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	1	65	291	77	30	12	3%	1.8	20.3%	12.1%	8.1%	5.7%	5.29	6.03	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	1	65	291	77	30	12	3%	1.8	20.3%	12.1%	8.1%	5.7%	5.29	6.03	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	1	65	291	77	30	12	3%	1.8	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	4.1%	5.29	4.52	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	17	74	13	5	4	0%	1.2	17.6%	6.8%	10.8%	5.4%	5.94	5.44	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	17	74	13	5	4	0%	1.2	17.6%	6.8%	10.8%	5.4%	5.94	5.44	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	17	74	13	5	4	0%	1.2	17.6%	6.8%	10.8%	5.4%	5.94	5.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	32	0	33	140	32	15	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	83	33	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		64	13	150	650	120	77	26	20%	2.3	18.5%	11.9%	6.7%	4.0%	4.27	5.22	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	17	200	869	161	103	34	20%	2.3	18.5%	11.9%	6.7%	4.0%	4.27	5.22	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 9 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.57 (+1.10)K% 15.0% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.740	11.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.932	×1.300	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 7 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.94 (+0.97)K% 17.2% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.770	13.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.150	3.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.962	×1.250	4.48%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 58 IPFIP 4.38 → 6.03 (+1.64)K% 27.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.740	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×1.180	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.18%	÷0.962	×1.300	5.65%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 51 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.83 (+1.03)K% 20.2% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.19%	—	×0.740	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.80%	—	×1.180	12.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷0.976	×1.300	2.50%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Twins · 16 IPFIP 1.81 → 3.04 (+1.23)K% 32.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.680	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.250	14.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Noble (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.6%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.65	22.5%	11.9%	33	+0.05	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	81
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	81
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	78
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	77
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	76
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	18.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.255	4.23	15.9%	2.3%	20	+0.20	4.03	254	75
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	22.6%	10.6%	1.20	4.61
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*