Kolton Curtis — OGILVIE

Kolton Curtis P Hub City Spartanburgers

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%8.9%

IP71

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	—	—	—	16.20	—	—
2024	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	2.85	4.91	+0.2
2025	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	19.9%	17.4%	1.4%	5.18	4.38	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	TEX	13	13	71	301	65	38	8	21.5%	12.6%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	TEX	13	13	74	312	70	35	8	22.4%	11.3%	2.7%	4.56	4.48	+0.5
2028	24	MLB	TEX	14	14	76	320	74	33	8	23.0%	10.4%	2.7%	4.41	4.32	+0.7
2029	25	MLB	TEX	14	14	77	324	76	32	9	23.4%	9.9%	2.7%	4.29	4.22	+0.8
2030	26	MLB	TEX	14	14	77	324	76	32	9	23.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.23	4.20	+0.8
2031	27	MLB	TEX	14	14	76	321	76	32	9	23.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.22	4.21	+0.8
2032	28	MLB	TEX	14	14	75	317	75	31	9	23.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.7
2033	29	MLB	TEX	13	13	73	309	73	31	9	23.5%	10.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.28	+0.7
2034	30	MLB	TEX	13	13	71	300	70	30	8	23.3%	10.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.34	+0.6
2035	31	MLB	TEX	12	12	69	290	67	30	8	23.0%	10.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.42	+0.5
2036	32	MLB	TEX	12	12	66	278	63	29	8	22.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.50	+0.4
2037	33	MLB	TEX	11	11	63	266	60	28	8	22.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.60	+0.3
2038	34	MLB	TEX	60	—	60	252	56	27	8	22.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	TEX	56	—	56	238	52	26	8	21.7%	11.0%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	31	155	672	128	108	14	19.0%	16.1%	2.1%	4.42	4.68	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—			62	40	200	869	166	140	18	19.0%	16.1%	2.1%	4.42	4.68	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kolton Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	21.5%	12.6%	2.7%	—	4.34	23.0%	12.4%	226	-0.39	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	94
Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	93
Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	92
Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	90
Matt Keating R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	22	SW	4.37	23.3%	14.8%	2.5%	.346	4.44	22.2%	8.8%	118	+0.07	3.38	184	90
Luis Ramirez R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	90
Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	90
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	90
Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	22	SW	5.27	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.64	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.37	5.27	174	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.77	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.05	4.61	194	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	89
James Proctor R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	23	SW	3.98	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.41	3.98	109	89
William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.50 FIP	22	SW	5.50	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.57	19.5%	8.6%	122	-0.93	4.45	198	89
Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.89 FIP	23	SW	4.89	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.88	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.74	161	89
Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.19 FIP	22	SW	5.19	20.9%	17.7%	2.9%	.274	4.24	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.95	3.54	367	88
Bailey Dees R 2027 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	88
Jarret Whorff R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	88
Ben Hecht R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.09	4.42	155	88
Craig Schlitter R 2028 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$1M
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$13M