Kolton Curtis
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.54
FIP5.54
K%18.9%
BB%17.4%
K-BB%1.5%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 16.20 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 16.20 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 80 | 42 | 7 | 65% | 3.6 | 17.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.85 | 4.90 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 80 | 42 | 7 | 65% | 3.6 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 2.85 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 19 | 16 | 66 | 290 | 75 | 44 | 4 | 84% | 3.5 | 19.9% | 17.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 5.18 | 4.29 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 19 | 16 | 66 | 290 | 75 | 44 | 4 | 84% | 3.5 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 1.4% | 5.18 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 42 | 39 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.9% | 17.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 46 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 15.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 5.25 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 13.6% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 51 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 49 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 15.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 13.6% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 262 | 1105 | 235 | 144 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.44 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 110 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 31 | 155 | 672 | 128 | 108 | 13 | 65% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.42 | 4.63 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 40 | 200 | 869 | 165 | 140 | 17 | 65% | 3.2 | 19.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.42 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kolton Curtis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.54 | 18.9% | 17.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.91 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 167 | -0.63 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 87 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 86 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 86 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 85 |
| Marco Jimenez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 2.7% | .372 | 4.06 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 148 | -1.10 | 3.36 | 183 | 85 |
| Alonzo Tredwell R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .336 | 4.15 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 100 | -0.21 | 4.15 | 157 | 85 |
| Blane Abeyta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 343 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 471 | 85 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2028 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 84 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 84 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 83 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 83 |
| Jackson Fristoe R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.78 | 17.0% | 24.2% | 1.9% | .258 | 6.42 | 15.6% | -2.0% | 110 | +0.64 | 4.79 | 138 | 82 |
| Ramsey David R 2028 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 81 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 81 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 80 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 80 |
| Luis Mora R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.78 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.55 | 23.9% | 1.2% | 43 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 119 | 80 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 80 |
| Eriq Swan R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 2.1% | .371 | 5.15 | 19.4% | 1.4% | 106 | +0.37 | 4.78 | 128 | 80 |
| Fernando Baez R 2027 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 1.03 | 4.98 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |