Kolton Curtis

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ADown East Woo…	23	15	82	2.85	3.80	23.2%	12.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.91
2025	21	A+TEX	19	16	66	5.18	3.62	25.9%	15.2%	—	K 19.9% · BB 17.4% · FIP 4.41
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.61	5.61	19.3%	17.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTEX	5	5	27	5.34	5.24	20.3%	15.3%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTEX	5	5	29	5.11	5.01	20.9%	13.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control25Command40

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Wills Montgomerie (age 23) · Kyle Larsen (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%19.3%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	21.6%	8.1%	2.7%	16.20	4.81	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	21.6%	8.1%	2.7%	16.20	5.35	—
2024	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	2.6%	2.85	4.91	—
2024	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	2.6%	2.85	4.91	—
2024	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.0%	2.85	3.80	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	19.9%	17.4%	2.5%	1.4%	5.18	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	19.9%	17.4%	2.5%	1.4%	5.18	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	25.9%	15.2%	10.7%	1.4%	5.18	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	17.5%	1.8%	2.8%	5.61	5.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	62	260	53	40	7	100%	5.6	20.3%	15.3%	5.0%	2.8%	5.34	5.24	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	44	186	39	26	5	100%	5.5	20.9%	13.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.11	5.01	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	43	181	38	25	5	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.6%	7.7%	2.8%	5.00	4.95	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	42	175	37	24	5	100%	5.9	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.97	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	27	114	23	17	3	100%	5.4	20.3%	15.3%	5.0%	2.8%	5.34	5.24	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	29	122	26	17	3	100%	5.8	20.9%	13.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.11	5.01	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	34	144	30	19	4	100%	5.7	21.2%	13.6%	7.7%	2.8%	5.00	4.95	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	35	148	31	20	4	100%	5.8	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	125	528	111	74	15	100%	6.0	21.0%	14.0%	7.0%	2.8%	5.09	4.65	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	118	24	100%	5.9	21.0%	14.0%	7.0%	2.8%	5.09	4.65	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		48	31	155	672	128	108	14	65%	3.2	19.0%	16.1%	2.9%	2.1%	4.42	4.69	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	40	200	869	165	140	18	65%	3.2	19.0%	16.1%	2.9%	2.1%	4.42	4.69	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 66 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.41 (+0.81)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.86%	—	×0.770	19.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.17%	—	×1.150	17.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.215	×1.250	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 82 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.91 (+1.11)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.740	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.17%	—	×1.180	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.008	×1.300	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 7 IPFIP 4.81 → 6.66 (+1.85)K% 29.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.680	20.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.62%	—	×1.250	27.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.124	×1.400	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.81 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kolton Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	19.3%	17.5%	2.8%	—	5.09	20.7%	6.4%	148	-0.52	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	90
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	87
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	82
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	81
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	81
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	80
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	80
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	80
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	78
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	50	20.5%	15.0%	1.09	5.25
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*