Kolton Curtis — OGILVIE

Kolton Curtis P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%18.9%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	21.6%	8.1%	2.7%	16.20	4.81	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	21.6%	8.1%	2.7%	16.20	4.81	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	6	0	7	37	11	8	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	21.6%	8.1%	2.7%	16.20	5.35	—
2024	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	2.6%	2.85	4.91	—
2024	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	2.6%	2.85	4.91	—
2024	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	23	15	82	345	80	42	7	65%	3.6	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.0%	2.85	3.80	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	19.9%	17.4%	2.5%	1.4%	5.18	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	19.9%	17.4%	2.5%	1.4%	5.18	4.41	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	19	16	66	290	75	44	4	84%	3.5	25.9%	15.2%	10.7%	1.4%	5.18	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	TEX	1	1	4	17	3	3	0	100%	4.0	18.9%	17.8%	1.0%	2.7%	5.62	5.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	77	323	65	50	9	100%	5.5	20.0%	15.4%	4.6%	2.7%	5.32	5.20	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	78	331	69	46	9	100%	5.6	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	2.7%	5.06	4.93	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	80	336	72	43	9	100%	5.7	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.7%	4.87	4.76	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	80	336	72	43	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.73	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	78	331	71	42	9	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	2.7%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	321	69	41	9	100%	5.8	21.4%	12.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	73	307	65	40	9	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.2%	8.1%	3.0%	4.92	4.99	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	68	288	60	39	9	100%	6.2	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.16	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	38	160	32	25	5	100%	5.4	20.0%	15.4%	4.6%	2.9%	5.43	5.31	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	55	232	48	32	7	100%	5.5	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	2.9%	5.17	5.04	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	59	35	8	100%	5.9	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.9%	4.98	4.87	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	69	291	63	37	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.89	4.84	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	71	300	65	38	9	100%	5.9	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	70	296	63	38	9	100%	5.8	21.4%	12.9%	8.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.97	+0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	68	287	61	38	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	13.2%	8.1%	3.2%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	64	270	56	36	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	13.5%	7.4%	3.4%	5.20	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	499	2106	446	279	63	100%	5.9	21.2%	13.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.04	4.64	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	112	25	100%	5.9	21.2%	13.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.04	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	31	155	672	128	108	14	65%	3.2	19.0%	16.1%	2.9%	2.1%	4.42	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	40	200	869	165	140	18	65%	3.2	19.0%	16.1%	2.9%	2.1%	4.42	4.69	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kolton Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	18.9%	17.8%	2.7%	—	4.96	20.7%	6.7%	235	-0.66	—	—	—
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	86
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	85
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	82
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	81
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	80
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	80
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	79
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	79
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	79
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	74	20.9%	13.7%	1.07	5.00
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58