Alex Vallecillo
P
ACL Brewers
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 150 lbs
ROK
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 9 | 9 | 40 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.80 | 4.47 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 9 | 9 | 40 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 1.80 | 3.25 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 11 | 58 | 254 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 79% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.62 | 4.98 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 11 | 58 | 254 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 79% | 4.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 5.62 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 17 | 11 | 54 | 231 | 58 | 32 | 4 | 65% | 3.2 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 6.17 | 4.68 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 17 | 11 | 54 | 231 | 58 | 32 | 4 | 65% | 3.2 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 1.7% | 6.17 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 20.0% | 108.00 | 19.14 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 20.0% | 108.00 | 60.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 73 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 32 | 152 | 648 | 111 | 85 | 18 | 78% | 3.7 | 17.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 42 | 200 | 853 | 146 | 112 | 24 | 78% | 3.7 | 17.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Vallecillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 38 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 85 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 85 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 84 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 82 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 79 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 78 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 77 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 77 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 76 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 76 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 76 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 76 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 76 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 75 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 1.15 | 4.34 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |