Alex Vallecillo — OGILVIE

Alex Vallecillo P ACL Brewers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%22.3%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	9	9	40	158	36	13	3	100%	4.4	15.5%	10.3%	5.2%	2.6%	1.80	4.51	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	9	9	40	158	36	13	3	100%	4.4	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	1.9%	1.80	3.25	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	58	254	62	24	7	79%	4.1	17.0%	11.5%	5.5%	3.5%	5.62	5.06	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	58	254	62	24	7	79%	4.1	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.8%	5.62	3.78	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	17	11	54	231	58	32	4	65%	3.2	18.6%	16.3%	2.2%	2.1%	6.17	4.75	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	17	11	54	231	58	32	4	65%	3.2	18.6%	16.3%	2.2%	2.1%	6.17	4.75	—
2023	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	17	11	54	231	58	32	4	65%	3.2	25.1%	13.9%	11.3%	1.7%	6.17	3.69	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	1	1	0	5	0	2	1	100%	0.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	20.0%	108.00	19.14	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	1	1	0	5	0	2	1	100%	0.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	20.0%	108.00	19.14	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	1	1	0	5	0	2	1	100%	0.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	20.0%	108.00	60.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	MIL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	38	162	37	18	5	100%	5.5	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.62	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	3	3	16	68	15	8	2	100%	5.3	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.62	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	16	8	2	100%	5.5	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.24	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	98	24	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		41	32	152	648	111	85	19	78%	3.7	17.1%	13.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.03	4.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	853	146	112	25	78%	3.7	17.1%	13.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.03	4.93	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Vallecillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.3%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.62	22.8%	11.5%	38	-0.19	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	81
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	77
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	77
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	22.5%	11.8%	1.15	4.74
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19