Colin Fields

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1453ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+DET	26	21	103	3.22	3.24	24.9%	8.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.36
2025	25	MIX3 levels	34	4	71	2.55	2.02	30.7%	6.8%	—	K 24.3% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.87
2026	26	MIX4 levels	30	4	49	3.51	3.20	31.0%	8.5%	—	K 25.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	2	0	2	3.94	3.94	24.8%	7.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	37	0	39	3.95	3.98	24.4%	7.3%	0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBDET	50	0	52	4.05	4.12	24.0%	7.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55Command65

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsPhil Klein (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28) · TJ Shook (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%24.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%17.7%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	48	194	57	16	3	60%	3.2	20.5%	10.3%	10.3%	1.7%	3.17	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	48	194	57	16	3	60%	3.2	29.4%	8.2%	21.1%	1.5%	3.17	2.54	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	21	103	418	104	35	9	81%	4.0	19.2%	9.6%	9.5%	3.0%	3.22	4.36	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	21	103	418	104	35	9	81%	4.0	19.2%	9.6%	9.5%	3.0%	3.22	4.36	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	21	103	418	104	35	9	81%	4.0	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	2.2%	3.22	3.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	4	71	280	86	19	3	12%	2.1	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	1.7%	2.55	2.87	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	4	71	280	86	19	3	12%	2.1	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	1.7%	2.55	2.87	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	4	71	280	86	19	3	12%	2.1	30.7%	6.8%	23.9%	1.1%	2.55	2.02	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	4	49	200	62	17	6	13%	1.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	3.7%	3.51	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	4	49	200	62	17	6	13%	1.6	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	3.7%	3.51	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	4	49	200	62	17	6	13%	1.6	31.0%	8.5%	22.5%	3.0%	3.51	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	3.0%	3.94	3.94	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	100	0	104	441	108	32	14	0%	1.0	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.1%	4.02	4.05	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	88	0	93	392	94	30	13	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.5%	16.4%	3.3%	4.13	4.20	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	79	0	83	350	82	28	12	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.7%	3.4%	4.28	4.38	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	37	0	39	165	40	12	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.0%	3.95	3.98	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	52	220	53	17	7	0%	1.0	24.0%	7.5%	16.4%	3.1%	4.05	4.12	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	53	0	56	236	56	19	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.7%	3.3%	4.20	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	0	147	622	149	47	20	0%	1.1	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.1%	4.08	3.77	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	64	27	0%	1.1	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	3.1%	4.08	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		105	38	271	1092	239	98	28	36%	2.6	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.09	3.82	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	28	200	806	176	73	21	36%	2.6	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.09	3.82	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 39 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.19 (+0.96)K% 31.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.68%	—	×0.810	25.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 66 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.87 (+1.03)K% 31.5% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.50%	—	×0.770	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.150	6.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.850	×1.250	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 103 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.36 (+1.12)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.88%	—	×0.770	19.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.150	9.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷0.889	×1.250	3.03%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 45 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.62 (+0.87)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.740	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.216	×1.300	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Fields (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	24.8%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.20	24.0%	16.5%	280	+0.26	—	—	—
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	74
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	74
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	74
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	27	SW	4.70	19.3%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.74	19.9%	12.2%	176	-0.96	3.48	501	72
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	72
Paxton Schultz R 2024 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	24.4%	9.8%	2.8%	.306	4.15	22.5%	15.1%	135	+0.32	3.83	543	72
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	71
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	69
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	69
Austin Pruitt R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	20.5%	4.8%	2.9%	.324	3.72	19.9%	14.6%	205	+0.16	2.94	819	69
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	69
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	68
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	68
Andrew Triggs R 2016 · 2.74 FIP	27	SU	2.74	23.0%	5.1%	1.7%	.302	4.50	20.0%	12.0%	107	+1.76	1.66	242	68
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	67
Hayden Wesneski R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	26	SW	4.17	23.3%	7.3%	3.8%	.259	3.77	20.7%	14.1%	106	-0.40	3.31	561	67
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	101	24.2%	7.4%	1.23	4.07
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Luis Garcia ('25)	1.8	120	25.3%	7.7%	1.20	3.60
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Pascual Perez ('80-'91, 19 WAR*)	6.2	138	21.3%*	6.7%*	1.24*	3.85*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Dick Hughes ('66-'68, 5 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.1%*	7.1%*	1.51*	3.68*