Spencer Horwitz — OGILVIE

Spencer Horwitz1B Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 28 L/R 5'10" / 204 lbs MLB Svc 1.884 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION295 act + 211 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 69134vR 160

AVG/OBP/SLG.276 / .373 / .453

PA211

HR7

K%16

BB%12

BABIP305

ISO177

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.6%

xwOBA

720.334

POWER50

Barrel%

508.2

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

1567.6

EYE55

Chase%

9021.0%

SPEED35

Sprint

1024.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 860 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

132

728

—

wRC+

137

▶▶R

wOBA

256

365

▶▶R

ISO

070

180

▶▶R

BABIP

239

318

▶▶R

20.5%

17.3%

▶▶R

BB%

10.6%

10.9%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.7	$27M	+$27M
2028	Arb-1	$6M	+3.3	$23M	+$17M
2029	Arb-2	$10M	+2.9	$18M	+$11M
2030	Arb-3	$12M	+2.3	$14M	+$6M
Totals		$29M		$92M	+$71M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	3 teams	—	559	484	133	33	1	14	64	107	6	8	5	275	366	434	800	159	323	19	11	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	3 teams	—	559	469	143	34	1	13	79	79	6	8	5	305	412	465	876	160	340	14	14	390	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	483	421	105	28	1	10	55	115	5	7	2	249	343	392	735	143	319	24	11	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	483	403	111	33	1	12	73	95	5	7	2	275	393	452	845	176	332	20	15	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	528	456	128	26	1	11	57	103	9	9	2	281	372	414	786	134	336	20	11	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	528	431	142	32	1	11	82	84	9	9	2	329	446	485	931	155	383	16	16	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	2 teams	—	640	555	156	40	1	16	71	119	10	3	3	281	373	443	816	162	330	19	11	355	130	+21	-1	-0	-11	+18	2.8
2024	26	MLB	2 teams	—	640	540	158	41	2	16	86	111	10	3	3	293	399	465	864	172	341	17	13	385	152	+38	-1	-0	-11	+18	4.5
2025	27	MLB	3 teams	—	462	412	111	29	0	12	46	85	2	0	1	269	346	427	773	158	312	18	10	338	117	+9	-0	-3	-8	+13	1.0
2025	27	MLB	3 teams	—	462	411	111	29	0	12	47	82	2	0	1	270	348	428	776	158	310	18	10	346	123	+12	-0	-3	-8	+13	1.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	PIT	—	295	246	69	11	1	10	40	40	5	1	0	280	392	455	847	175	295	14	14	371	142	+14	+0	+0	-5	+8	1.8
YTD	28	MLB	PIT	—	295	246	69	11	1	10	40	40	5	1	0	280	392	455	847	175	295	14	14	375	145	+15	+0	+0	-5	+8	1.9
ROS	28	MLB	PIT	100%	211	181	50	11	0	7	25	34	3	1	0	276	373	453	826	177	307	16	12	365	138	+9	+0	+2	-4	+6	1.3
ROS	28	MLB	PIT	100%	211	181	49	11	0	6	25	34	3	1	0	271	368	431	799	160	306	16	12	354	129	+7	+0	+2	-4	+6	1.1
FULL	28	MLB	PIT	—	506	427	118	22	1	16	65	74	8	2	0	276	382	445	827	169	298	15	13	364	137	+21	+0	+2	-9	+14	2.9
TOT	28	MLB	PIT	—	506	427	119	22	1	17	65	74	8	2	0	279	384	454	838	176	299	15	13	369	140	+23	+0	+2	-9	+14	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	PIT	98%	648	557	154	35	0	20	77	107	9	2	0	276	373	447	820	171	308	17	12	364	137	+27	+0	+4	-12	+18	3.9
2028	30	MLB	PIT	98%	635	546	149	34	0	19	76	107	8	2	0	273	370	440	809	167	306	17	12	361	134	+25	+0	+3	-11	+18	3.5
2029	31	MLB	PIT	98%	622	535	144	33	0	18	74	106	8	2	0	269	366	432	798	163	303	17	12	356	131	+22	+0	+2	-11	+18	3.1
2030	32	MLB	PIT	98%	609	523	138	31	0	17	73	107	8	1	0	264	363	421	783	157	298	18	12	349	125	+17	+0	+1	-11	+17	2.6
2031	33	MLB	PIT	98%	526	452	115	25	0	14	62	95	7	1	0	254	353	403	756	148	291	18	12	340	118	+11	+0	+0	-9	+15	1.7
2032	34	MLB	PIT	94%	444	384	93	19	0	11	52	83	5	1	0	242	340	378	718	135	282	19	12	328	109	+5	+0	-1	-8	+13	0.8
2033	35	MLB	PIT	89%	375	323	76	15	0	9	44	73	5	0	0	235	336	365	701	130	272	19	12	315	99	-0	+0	-3	-7	+11	0.1
2034	36	MLB	PIT	80%	288	250	55	10	0	6	33	58	3	0	0	220	318	332	650	112	262	20	11	302	89	-4	+0	-4	-5	+8	-0.5
2027	29	MLB	PIT	98%	635	545	149	34	0	19	76	105	9	2	0	273	371	440	812	167	306	17	12	353	128	+20	+0	+4	-11	+18	3.2
2028	30	MLB	PIT	98%	622	535	145	33	0	18	74	104	8	2	0	271	368	434	802	163	304	17	12	350	126	+18	+0	+3	-11	+18	2.9
2029	31	MLB	PIT	98%	610	524	141	32	0	18	73	104	8	2	0	269	367	433	800	164	301	17	12	345	122	+15	+0	+2	-11	+17	2.5
2030	32	MLB	PIT	98%	597	513	135	30	0	17	71	104	8	1	0	263	361	421	783	158	296	17	12	338	117	+11	+0	+1	-11	+17	2.0
2031	33	MLB	PIT	98%	515	443	112	24	0	14	61	93	6	1	0	253	351	402	753	149	289	18	12	329	110	+6	+0	+0	-9	+15	1.2
2032	34	MLB	PIT	94%	415	358	87	18	0	10	49	77	5	1	0	243	342	377	719	134	280	19	12	318	101	+1	+0	-1	-7	+12	0.4
2033	35	MLB	PIT	89%	334	288	67	13	0	8	39	65	4	0	0	233	332	361	693	128	271	19	12	305	92	-3	+0	-2	-6	+9	-0.2
2034	36	MLB	PIT	80%	230	198	44	8	0	5	27	46	3	0	0	222	325	338	663	116	261	20	12	292	82	-5	+0	-3	-4	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5005	4316	1125	250	0	139	585	887	64	10	1	261	357	415	773	155	297	18	12	338	117	+96	+2	+3	-104	+142	14.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	146	32	0	18	76	115	8	1	0	260	357	414	770	153	297	18	12	338	117	+12	+0	+0	-13	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	7030	6079	1607	369	4	184	809	1299	88	37	13	264	359	417	776	153	307	18	12	345	122	+176	+2	+2	-126	+199	25.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	148	34	0	17	75	120	8	3	1	263	358	415	773	151	305	18	12	345	122	+16	+0	+0	-12	+18	2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	16	16	6	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	375	375	875	1.250	500	333	12	0	534	267	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	469	389	113	28	1	10	70	66	5	4	5	290	405	445	850	154	324	14	15	379	148	+26	-1	—	—	+13	3.8
2021	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	74	64	24	4	0	1	9	11	1	4	0	375	459	484	944	109	442	15	12	425	183	+7	+1	—	—	+2	1.0
2022	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	202	171	42	14	0	2	30	41	1	4	1	246	361	363	724	117	312	20	15	333	113	+3	+0	—	—	+6	0.9
2022	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	281	232	69	19	1	10	43	54	4	3	1	297	416	517	933	220	347	19	15	409	171	+23	+0	—	—	+8	3.1
2023	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	44	39	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	346	27	9	330	111	+1	+0	+1	-9	+1	-0.7
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	392	132	30	1	10	78	72	8	9	2	337	456	495	951	158	386	15	16	421	180	+44	+1	—	—	+14	6.0
2024	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	381	328	87	19	0	12	42	70	7	0	0	265	361	433	794	168	300	18	11	353	128	+12	+0	-0	-11	+11	1.2
2024	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	259	212	71	22	2	4	44	41	3	3	3	335	456	514	970	179	401	16	17	431	188	+26	-1	—	—	+7	3.3
2025	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	411	364	99	26	0	11	44	73	2	0	1	272	354	434	788	162	313	18	11	352	127	+13	-0	-3	-8	+12	1.3
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	33	31	10	2	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	323	344	484	828	161	375	21	3	354	129	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	27	AA	Altoona Curve	—	18	16	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	125	222	188	410	62	143	11	11	199	11	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	836	731	196	47	0	24	90	155	10	0	1	268	356	431	787	163	309	19	11	351	127	+25	-0	-3	-29	+24	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,551	157	12	263	355	420	-101	-18	18.6	17.0
	/162	664	19	1	263	355	420	-12.1	-2.2	2.2	pk7: 15
#2Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
#3Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	10	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	13.9	13.3
	/162	664	21	4	260	343	445	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#4Doug Mientkiewiczlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,401 PA	8	3,401	64	12	276	364	414	-47	-13	11.9	12.2
	/162	664	12	2	276	364	414	-9.1	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 13
#5Scott Hatteberglast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,955 PA	9	3,955	83	3	272	361	405	-57	-49	8.8	9.2
	/162	664	14	1	272	361	405	-9.6	-8.3	1.5	pk7: 10
#6Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	6	3,147	84	34	257	336	412	-36	-3	9.0	9.0
#6Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	/162	664	18	7	257	336	412	-7.6	-0.7	1.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Horwitz (OGILVIE)	28	55	50	35	55	279/384/454	176	299	17	2	15%	13%	140	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Garko 2009 · MLB	28	53→57	50→55	40→30	50	269/342/425	156	298	18	2	17%	7%	121	+3.2	236/308/374	138	261	17	3	17%	7%	94	+1.3	223/297/344	122	253	16	0	19%	7%	78	+0.1
●Jason Kubel 2011 · MLB	29	52→57	56→60	41→40	54	267/338/465	198	297	24	2	19%	10%	129	+3.7	254/324/441	187	308	22	2	24%	9%	117	+2.9	247/319/428	182	308	22	1	26%	9%	103	+1.4
★Carlos Santana 2014 · MLB	28	51→56	53→60	41→45	65	257/365/441	185	286	19	4	18%	14%	134	+4.1	244/362/434	190	269	22	6	18%	15%	131	+3.9	253/369/456	203	264	24	3	15%	15%	131	+4.4
●Jesse Winker 2020 · MLB	26	54→62	50→55	37→45	58	269/354/427	158	295	18	3	16%	11%	126	+3.5	266/366/469	203	294	25	3	18%	12%	141	+4.6	256/368/452	195	284	24	1	18%	14%	135	+2.8
●Doug Mientkiewicz 2002 · MLB	28	60→62	48→50	35→40	58	294/374/449	155	328	15	4	15%	10%	139	+4.4	274/367/414	140	301	12	4	12%	12%	127	+3.6	265/363/395	130	289	10	3	11%	12%	114	+2.4
✕Omar Narváez 2020 · MLB	28	54→55	53→50	39→30	56	276/355/442	166	312	22	2	19%	10%	130	+3.8	252/333/399	147	300	17	2	21%	10%	110	+2.4	234/321/355	120	285	12	0	21%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Colin Moran 2021 · MLB	28	53→57	52→55	40→30	48	267/327/436	169	320	19	2	23%	8%	117	+2.9	237/306/379	142	303	17	3	26%	9%	93	+1.3	223/296/345	122	288	15	1	27%	9%	78	+0.1
●Raul Lopez 2007 · AAA	28	61→62	49→50	39→40	54	301/359/455	154	326	16	4	13%	8%	134	+4.1	269/323/412	143	296	16	5	14%	7%	108	+2.3	276/335/428	151	300	18	3	14%	8%	118	+1.6
●Adam LaRoche 2006 · MLB	26	50→55	55→65	37→40	50	261/322/455	194	289	23	2	19%	8%	120	+3.1	271/341/492	221	312	26	2	21%	9%	137	+4.3	272/347/498	226	315	27	1	22%	10%	134	+4.0
●Robert Fick 2002 · MLB	28	51→54	54→55	39→40	55	263/336/447	183	282	22	4	16%	9%	123	+3.3	259/326/419	160	279	17	2	14%	8%	112	+2.6	253/322/402	149	272	15	0	13%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Ike Davis 2015 · MLB	28	44→54	52→60	37→40	60	227/330/394	167	266	20	3	22%	13%	108	+2.3	221/297/355	134	283	14	3	25%	10%	83	+0.6	213/281/332	119	274	12	0	25%	9%	69	-0.2
✕Donovan Walton 2022 · MLB	28	54→59	52→55	40→45	49	273/335/444	171	296	20	6	16%	7%	122	+3.3	237/297/372	135	271	13	8	17%	7%	88	+0.9	254/316/372	119	283	14	5	16%	7%	94	+0.9
●Luke Voit 2019 · MLB	28	51→56	54→60	41→30	47	262/325/446	184	307	22	2	23%	7%	119	+3.1	262/346/478	216	319	29	2	26%	10%	136	+4.2	260/353/485	226	318	32	0	27%	11%	138	+2.5
●Xavier Nady 2007 · MLB	28	53→59	53→60	42→45	47	270/327/443	174	298	20	5	18%	6%	119	+3.1	284/338/475	191	321	23	4	19%	6%	132	+4.0	281/335/455	174	326	21	2	20%	6%	122	+2.6
●Jay Gibbons 2005 · MLB	28	51→54	52→60	39→30	52	258/316/429	171	273	20	2	15%	8%	111	+2.5	265/316/452	187	277	22	2	14%	7%	116	+2.8	264/314/455	191	273	23	0	13%	6%	112	+1.7
●Jeremy Giambi 2002 · MLB	27	54→58	51→55	41→40	60	267/364/433	166	311	18	2	19%	13%	131	+3.9	254/379/453	199	308	23	4	23%	16%	143	+4.7	239/392/459	219	287	27	1	25%	19%	145	+2.2
●Dan Johnson 2008 · MLB	28	48→53	52→60	40→30	62	246/342/415	170	261	19	2	15%	12%	118	+3.0	247/341/444	197	269	26	2	19%	12%	124	+3.4	228/321/432	204	238	29	1	19%	11%	114	+2.5
●Andre Ethier 2010 · MLB	28	55→63	57→60	43→45	56	281/360/494	213	302	23	6	16%	10%	145	+4.9	291/365/481	190	333	21	3	18%	10%	144	+4.8	296/369/473	177	344	20	1	19%	10%	134	+4.0
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→56	52→60	37→30	49	267/318/440	174	298	20	3	18%	7%	115	+2.7	249/303/403	154	273	17	3	16%	7%	98	+1.6	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2
●Ross Gload 2005 · MLB	29	58	50→55	36→40	52	287/347/443	156	317	17	4	15%	8%	127	+3.6	289/330/461	172	315	18	6	14%	6%	124	+3.4	296/331/467	171	319	17	6	13%	4%	124	+1.5