Spencer Horwitz — OGILVIE

Spencer Horwitz1B Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 28 L/R 5'10" / 204 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 1.884 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION422 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 91112vR 120

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO155

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.0%

xAVG

380.242

POWER50

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

1567.6

EYE55

Chase%

9018.8%

SPEED35

Sprint

1024.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%20%▼▼22% over 87 PA (30d) · proj 18%

BB%9%▼8% over 127 PA (45d) · proj 11%

ISO.094▼▼.009 over 115 AB (60d) · proj .156xISO .123 vs .166 prior — approach backs the move

HR/BB2.2%▼0.0% over 89 BBE (60d) · proj 4.0%barrel% 6.0% vs 8.1% prior — approach backs the move

BABIP.279▼.225 over 89 BIP (60d) · proj .285xBABIP .225 vs .292 prior — approach backs the move

SLASH.230/.309/.324▼▼proj .251/.338/.406

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 860 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

132

728

—

wRC+

133

▶▶R

wOBA

256

365

▶▶R

ISO

070

180

▶▶R

BABIP

239

318

▶▶R

20.5%

17.3%

▶▶R

BB%

10.6%

10.9%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$20M	+$19M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$16M	+$12M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+1.9	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$21M		$57M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	16	16	6	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	375	375	875	1.250	500	333	12	0	534	247	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	469	389	113	28	1	10	70	66	5	4	5	290	405	445	850	154	324	14	15	379	143	+24	-1	—	—	+10	3.4
2021	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	74	64	24	4	0	1	9	11	1	4	0	375	459	484	944	109	442	15	12	425	174	+6	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	202	171	42	14	0	2	30	41	1	4	1	246	361	363	724	117	312	20	15	333	112	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	281	232	69	19	1	10	43	54	4	3	1	297	416	517	933	220	347	19	15	409	163	+21	+0	—	—	+6	2.8
2023	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	44	39	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	346	27	9	330	109	+0	+0	+1	-9	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	392	132	30	1	10	78	72	8	9	2	337	456	495	951	158	386	15	16	421	171	+41	+1	—	—	+10	5.3
2024	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	381	328	87	19	0	12	42	70	7	0	0	265	361	433	794	168	300	18	11	353	125	+11	+0	-0	-11	+8	0.8
2024	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	259	212	71	22	2	4	44	41	3	3	3	335	456	514	970	179	401	16	17	431	178	+24	-1	—	—	+6	3.0
2025	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	411	364	99	26	0	11	44	73	2	0	1	272	354	434	788	162	313	18	11	352	124	+12	-0	-3	-8	+9	0.9
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	33	31	10	2	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	323	344	484	828	161	375	21	3	354	126	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	27	AA	Altoona Curve	—	18	16	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	125	222	188	410	62	143	11	11	199	21	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	836	731	196	47	0	24	90	155	10	0	1	268	356	431	787	163	309	19	11	351	124	+24	-0	-3	-29	+18	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	16	16	6	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	375	375	875	1.250	500	283	12	0	418	169	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2021	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	469	406	106	25	1	9	53	90	5	4	5	261	353	394	748	133	306	19	11	330	109	+5	-1	—	—	+10	1.5
2022	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	202	181	42	13	0	2	20	48	1	4	1	232	312	337	649	105	301	24	10	281	76	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	281	243	64	16	1	8	32	65	4	3	1	263	358	436	795	173	321	23	11	346	120	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	44	39	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	346	27	9	325	106	+0	+0	+1	-9	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	417	120	25	1	8	53	89	8	9	2	288	379	410	789	122	334	18	11	348	122	+12	+1	—	—	+10	2.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	381	328	87	19	0	12	42	70	7	0	0	265	361	433	794	168	300	18	11	345	120	+9	+0	-0	-11	+8	0.6
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	259	226	68	20	2	3	30	49	3	3	3	301	390	447	837	146	368	19	12	360	130	+9	-1	—	—	+6	1.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	411	364	100	26	0	12	44	73	2	0	1	275	356	445	801	170	313	18	11	352	124	+12	-0	-3	-8	+9	0.9
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	33	31	9	2	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	290	312	452	764	161	335	27	3	300	89	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	27	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	18	17	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	118	167	176	343	59	126	17	6	155	-9	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	559	487	128	31	1	12	61	107	6	8	5	263	352	405	757	142	311	19	11	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	559	469	143	34	1	13	79	79	6	8	5	305	412	465	876	160	340	14	14	390	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	483	424	105	29	1	9	52	113	5	7	2	248	337	384	721	137	316	23	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	483	403	111	33	1	12	73	95	5	7	2	275	393	452	845	176	332	20	15	378	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	456	130	27	1	9	57	101	9	9	2	285	375	408	783	123	344	19	11	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	528	431	142	32	1	11	82	84	9	9	2	329	446	485	931	155	383	16	16	413	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	554	154	39	2	15	72	119	10	3	3	278	371	437	808	159	328	19	11	351	124	+18	-1	-0	-11	+14	2.0
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	640	540	158	41	2	16	86	111	10	3	3	293	399	465	864	172	341	17	13	385	124	+18	-1	-0	-11	+14	2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	412	112	29	0	13	46	84	2	0	1	272	348	437	785	165	312	18	10	340	116	+9	-0	-3	-8	+10	0.8
2025	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	462	411	111	29	0	12	47	82	2	0	1	270	348	428	776	158	310	18	10	346	116	+9	-0	-3	-8	+10	0.8
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	559	487	128	31	1	12	61	107	6	8	5	263	352	405	757	142	305	19	11	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	483	423	105	29	1	9	52	113	5	7	2	248	337	385	722	137	313	23	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	457	130	27	1	9	57	101	9	9	2	284	375	407	782	123	335	19	11	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	553	154	39	2	15	72	119	10	3	3	278	371	438	809	159	328	19	11	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	411	112	29	0	13	46	84	2	0	1	273	348	438	786	165	307	18	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	457	130	27	1	9	57	101	9	9	2	284	375	407	782	123	335	19	11	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	553	154	39	2	15	72	119	10	3	3	278	371	438	809	159	328	19	11	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	411	112	29	0	13	46	84	2	0	1	273	348	438	786	165	307	18	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	PIT	—	422	361	90	12	1	11	50	66	7	1	0	249	352	380	731	130	274	16	12	327	108	+4	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.6
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	PIT	—	422	361	89	12	1	10	50	66	7	1	0	247	349	368	718	122	273	16	12	326	108	+4	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.6
YTD	28	MLB RAW	PIT	—	422	361	89	12	1	10	50	66	7	1	0	247	349	368	718	122	273	16	12	326	107	+3	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.5
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		281	22	11	334	112	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		279	22	11	319	112	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	PIT	—	431	369	90	12	1	10	51	68	7	1	0	244	347	363	710	119	271	16	12	326	108	+4	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.6
TOT	28	MLB MLE	PIT	—	431	369	91	12	1	11	51	68	7	1	0	247	349	374	723	127	272	16	12	327	108	+4	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PIT	98%	648	561	151	34	0	17	73	111	9	2	0	269	362	421	783	152	306	17	11	352	124	+19	+0	+5	-12	+14	2.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	PIT	98%	635	549	146	33	0	16	72	110	9	2	0	266	360	413	774	148	305	17	11	348	122	+17	+0	+4	-11	+14	2.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	PIT	98%	622	538	142	32	0	16	70	110	9	1	0	264	358	413	771	149	301	18	11	344	119	+14	+0	+3	-11	+13	2.0
2030	32	MLB MLE	PIT	98%	609	527	136	30	0	15	69	110	8	1	0	258	353	400	753	142	296	18	11	336	114	+10	+0	+2	-11	+13	1.5
2031	33	MLB MLE	PIT	98%	526	455	113	24	0	12	59	97	7	1	0	248	344	380	724	132	290	18	11	327	108	+5	+0	+1	-9	+11	0.8
2032	34	MLB MLE	PIT	94%	444	385	92	19	0	9	50	85	6	0	0	239	336	358	694	119	281	19	11	316	100	-0	+0	-1	-8	+10	0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	PIT	98%	635	549	146	33	0	16	72	108	9	2	0	266	360	413	774	148	304	17	11	336	124	+18	+0	+4	-11	+14	2.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	PIT	98%	622	537	142	32	0	15	71	108	9	2	0	264	360	408	768	143	302	17	11	333	122	+16	+0	+4	-11	+13	2.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	PIT	98%	610	528	137	31	0	14	69	108	8	1	0	259	354	398	751	138	299	18	11	329	119	+14	+0	+3	-11	+13	1.9
2030	32	MLB CTX	PIT	98%	597	517	131	29	0	13	67	108	8	1	0	253	348	385	733	132	294	18	11	322	114	+10	+0	+2	-11	+13	1.5
2031	33	MLB CTX	PIT	98%	515	445	109	23	0	11	58	95	7	1	0	245	341	371	712	126	288	18	11	313	108	+5	+0	+1	-9	+11	0.8
2032	34	MLB CTX	PIT	94%	415	361	84	17	0	8	46	80	5	0	0	233	328	346	674	114	279	19	11	302	100	-0	+0	-1	-7	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4239	3676	946	212	0	101	474	764	56	7	1	257	351	397	748	140	298	18	11	329	115	+86	+1	+10	-90	+92	10.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	145	33	0	15	73	117	9	1	0	257	352	395	747	138	299	18	11	329	115	+13	+0	+2	-14	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6165	5356	1410	327	5	143	682	1149	80	34	13	263	355	406	761	143	309	19	11	339	115	+88	+1	+11	-91	+94	10.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	149	34	1	15	72	121	8	4	1	264	355	407	762	143	309	19	11	339	115	+13	+0	+2	-14	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	8.3	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.4	18.2
/162	664	23	6	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
#2Billy Butlerlast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,686 PA	8.6	5,686	147	5	290	354	441	-102	-46	17.1	16.9
/162	664	17	1	-11.9	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 17
#3Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	8.1	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
/162	664	26	1	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
#4Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	6.1	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	14.0	13.3
/162	664	21	4	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.7	5,139	130	9	260	350	405	-92	-15	13.6	12.8
/162	664	17	1	-11.9	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 12
#5Doug Mientkiewiczlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,401 PA	5.1	3,401	64	12	276	364	414	-47	-13	11.9	12.2
/162	664	12	2	-9.1	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 13
#6Lyle Overbaylast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,790 PA	8.7	5,790	151	19	266	348	429	-103	-102	8.8	10.3
/162	664	17	2	-11.9	-11.7	1.0	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Horwitz (OGILVIE)	28	55	50	35	55	249/344/393	144	281	14	2	17%	11%	112	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Dan Johnson 2007 · MLB	27	50→53	50→55	38→30	60	254/338/415	161	271	18	2	14%	11%	114	+2.4	248/342/423	175	271	21	2	17%	12%	118	+2.6	235/339/423	188	253	25	0	18%	13%	115	+2.1
●Doug Mientkiewicz 2003 · MLB	29	57→62	47→50	35→40	62	276/369/419	143	304	13	3	14%	12%	126	+3.2	265/355/406	141	289	12	4	12%	12%	118	+2.7	260/350/399	139	281	12	3	12%	11%	109	+1.5
✕Ross Gload 2005 · MLB	29	58	50→55	36→40	52	287/347/443	156	317	17	4	15%	8%	124	+3.1	286/328/450	164	314	17	6	14%	6%	118	+2.7	293/328/455	162	318	15	6	13%	4%	117	+1.2
✕Robert Fick 2003 · MLB	29	53→54	52→55	37→40	53	266/332/439	172	287	19	2	15%	8%	117	+2.6	254/324/400	146	273	15	3	13%	9%	105	+1.7	249/326/380	131	266	13	1	12%	9%	96	+0.6
●Raul Lopez 2007 · AAA	28	60→61	47→50	39→40	54	297/357/439	141	325	13	4	13%	8%	126	+3.2	265/321/396	131	295	13	5	14%	8%	103	+1.5	275/335/413	138	303	15	3	14%	8%	112	+1.2
✕Ike Davis 2016 · MLB	29	47→55	47→60	38→40	58	231/324/374	143	274	14	3	21%	12%	99	+1.3	214/279/345	131	291	15	4	30%	8%	76	-0.4	195/262/304	109	267	13	0	31%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Hyun Soo Kim 2017 · MLB	29	57	44→45	39→30	57	278/357/401	122	316	11	5	15%	10%	118	+2.6	247/323/352	105	297	9	5	18%	9%	94	+0.9	226/304/285	59	284	2	0	19%	9%	68	-0.4
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→56	52→60	37→30	49	267/318/440	174	298	20	3	18%	7%	113	+2.3	249/303/403	154	273	17	3	16%	7%	98	+1.2	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	107	+0.9
●Lucas Duda 2014 · MLB	28	47→55	51→65	39→30	54	238/333/396	158	299	19	3	26%	11%	108	+1.9	248/345/459	211	295	26	3	24%	11%	127	+3.3	250/349/478	228	287	29	1	23%	11%	125	+2.3
●Jay Gibbons 2005 · MLB	28	51→54	52→60	39→30	52	258/316/429	171	273	20	2	15%	8%	109	+2.0	265/316/452	187	277	22	2	14%	7%	114	+2.4	264/314/455	191	273	23	0	13%	6%	110	+1.4
✕Alex Verdugo 2023 · MLB	27	56→58	46→50	42→45	51	276/331/409	133	308	12	4	15%	7%	109	+2.0	250/309/381	131	281	12	4	15%	8%	95	+0.9	239/301/363	124	269	11	4	15%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Steve Cox 2002 · MLB	27	52→51	51→50	40	53	264/341/434	169	295	19	4	17%	9%	120	+2.8	253/328/405	152	292	16	6	19%	9%	108	+1.9	251/330/392	141	290	15	5	18%	9%	101	+1.5
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2012 · MLB	28	45→50	50→55	42→30	55	231/319/383	152	280	18	3	24%	11%	100	+1.3	235/313/411	176	281	22	4	24%	10%	104	+1.6	205/289/360	155	236	20	1	22%	10%	83	+0.1
●Luis Valbuena 2014 · MLB	28	46→55	48→60	37→50	56	228/313/371	143	266	15	4	20%	11%	95	+1.0	239/328/428	189	274	22	3	21%	11%	114	+2.3	240/332/440	200	275	24	1	22%	12%	114	+1.8
●Travis Lee 2003 · MLB	28	52→55	48→55	43→45	56	257/335/405	147	292	15	6	17%	10%	110	+2.1	265/334/427	162	297	17	7	16%	9%	115	+2.4	259/333/421	162	288	17	7	16%	10%	108	+1.6
●Jesse Winker 2020 · MLB	26	54→60	50→55	37→45	58	271/356/428	157	298	17	3	16%	11%	124	+3.1	266/366/467	201	295	24	3	18%	12%	136	+3.9	256/368/448	192	285	24	1	18%	14%	129	+2.3
●Justin Smoak 2015 · MLB	28	46→53	50→65	37→30	52	237/314/388	152	281	18	2	22%	10%	99	+1.3	240/319/440	200	287	26	2	25%	10%	114	+2.3	241/349/467	226	270	29	0	23%	14%	126	+3.1
●Andrew Benintendi 2022 · MLB	28	53→63	51→55	42→50	50	265/327/430	165	307	18	10	20%	8%	114	+2.3	269/333/391	122	310	11	10	16%	9%	106	+1.8	261/328/375	115	299	11	9	16%	9%	97	+1.1
✕Ryan Garko 2009 · MLB	28	53→57	50	40→30	50	268/342/422	154	298	18	2	17%	7%	118	+2.6	238/311/374	136	264	17	3	17%	8%	95	+1.0	228/301/347	120	258	16	0	18%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Casey Kotchman 2012 · MLB	29	55→62	44→50	42→40	55	270/339/392	122	290	12	3	12%	8%	109	+2.0	243/302/355	112	258	13	5	11%	7%	86	+0.3	236/292/336	100	251	11	2	11%	6%	76	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps