Spencer Horwitz

1B Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 204 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 2.884S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAATOR259.335/.456/.51443131—.301/.390/.447
202426MLBTOR381.265/.361/.4331201220.7
202527AAA/AAPIT51.255/.300/.3831053—.229/.261/.355
202527MLBPIT411.272/.354/.4341101240.9
202628MLBPIT451.244/.348/.3641011070.6
2027PROJ29MLBPIT392.248/.343/.3901011111.0
2028PROJ92% MLB30MLBPIT347.244/.339/.380801070.5
2029PROJ92% MLB31MLBPIT330.239/.333/.368801020.3
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.884First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Ext$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA64
Barrel%43
Avg EV28
Bat Spd15
Speed10
Form.233/.328/.344 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .249/.342/.395
CompsRobert Fick (age 29) · Doug Mientkiewicz (age 29) · Ike Davis (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 90111vR 119
AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .343 / .390
PA392
HR10
K%17
BB%11
BABIP281
ISO144
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +5.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+5BATRUN: -1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +3.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+3FLDPOS: -7.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-7POSREP: +8.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +1.00+1.0WAR
0.00.51.01.00.50.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
380.242
POWER50
Barrel%
437.2
Avg EV
2887.4
Bat Spd
1567.6
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED35
Sprint
1024.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%20%▼▼22% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 17%
BB%11%·11% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 11%
ISO.111▼▼.029 over 69 AB (60d) · proj .146
HR/BB2.6%▼0.0% over 53 BBE (60d) · proj 3.8%
BABIP.279·.264 over 53 BIP (60d) · proj .280
SLASH.233/.328/.344▼▼proj .249/.342/.395
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 860 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
132
728
—
wRC+
59
133
▶▶R
wOBA
256
365
▶▶R
ISO
070
180
▶▶R
BABIP
239
318
▶▶R
K%
20.5%
17.3%
▶▶R
BB%
10.6%
10.9%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2023
Service   2.884 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.0$8M+$6M
2028Arb-2$2M+0.5$2M+$0.5M
2029Arb-3$2M+0.3$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $11M +$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 1616 6202 020 00 3753758751.250 500333 120 534 172 — — — — — —
202123 A+Vancouver Canadians — 469389 11328110 70665 45 290405445850 154324 1415 379 107 — — — — — —
202123 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 7464 24401 9111 40 375459484944 109442 1512 425 174 — — — — — —
202224 AAABuffalo Bisons — 202171 421402 30411 41 246361363724 117312 2015 333 82 — — — — — —
202224 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 281232 6919110 43544 31 297416517933 220347 1915 409 122 — — — — — —
202325 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 4439 10201 4121 00 256341385726 128346 279 330 109 +0 +0 +1 -9 +1 -0.8
202325 AAABuffalo Bisons — 484392 13230110 78728 92 337456495951 158386 1516 421 126 — — — — — —
202426 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 381328 8719012 42707 00 265361433794 168300 1811 353 122 +10 +0 -0 -11 +8 0.7
202426 AAABuffalo Bisons — 259212 712224 44413 33 335456514970 179401 1617 431 131 — — — — — —
202527 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 411364 9926011 44732 01 272354434788 162313 1811 352 124 +12 -0 -3 -8 +9 0.9
202527 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 3331 10201 170 00 323344484828 161375 213 354 88 — — — — — —
202527 AAAltoona Curve — 1816 2100 220 00 125222188410 62143 1111 199 -11 — — — — — —
202628 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 451385 9414110 54737 10 244348364711 119274 1612 323 107 +4 +0 +0 -8 +10 0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 12871116 29061134 14422817 11 260353408761 148296 1811 341 117 +26 -0 -2 -37 +28 1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 1616 6202 020 00 3753758751.250 500287 120 423 172 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 469407 1052519 52905 45 258349391740 133302 1911 326 107 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 202180 431302 21481 41 239322344666 106311 2410 289 82 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 281243 651618 32654 31 267362440802 173327 2311 349 122 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 4439 10201 4121 00 256341385726 128346 279 329 109 +0 +0 +1 -9 +1 -0.8
202325 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 484416 1212518 54898 92 291383413796 123340 1811 354 126 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 381330 8719012 40707 00 264355430786 167300 1810 349 122 +10 +0 -0 -11 +8 0.7
202426 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 259226 682023 30493 33 301390447837 146370 1912 362 131 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 411365 9925012 43732 01 271351438790 167313 1810 352 124 +12 -0 -3 -8 +9 0.9
202527 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 3331 9201 190 00 290312452764 161332 273 298 88 — — — — — —
202527 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 1817 2100 130 00 118167176343 59123 176 152 -11 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 451385 9413111 54737 10 244348369716 125274 1612 326 107 +4 +0 +0 -8 +10 0.6
202123 A+ MLE3 teams — 559488 12731112 601076 85 260348402750 141307 1911 329 109 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW3 teams — 559469 14334113 79796 85 305412465876 160340 1414 390 109 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 483423 1072919 531135 72 253343390733 137323 2311 324 105 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAW2 teams — 483403 11133112 73955 72 275393452845 176332 2015 378 105 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 528455 1312719 581019 92 288379411790 123348 1911 352 124 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 528431 14232111 82849 92 329446485931 155383 1616 413 124 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLE2 teams — 640556 15439215 7011910 33 277368435803 158326 1911 354 126 +20 -1 -0 -11 +14 2.2
202426 MLB RAW2 teams — 640540 15841216 8611110 33 293399465864 172341 1713 385 126 +20 -1 -0 -11 +14 2.2
202527 MLB MLE3 teams — 462413 11027013 45842 01 266341426767 160305 1810 340 116 +9 -0 -3 -8 +10 0.7
202527 MLB RAW3 teams — 462411 11129012 47822 01 270348428776 158310 1810 346 116 +9 -0 -3 -8 +10 0.7
202628 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 451385 9413111 54737 10 244348369716 125271 1612 326 107 +4 +0 +0 -8 +10 0.6
202628 MLB RAWPittsburgh Pirates — 451385 9414110 54737 10 244348364711 119274 1612 323 107 +4 +0 +0 -8 +10 0.6
202123 A+ MLE3 teams — 559488 12731112 601076 85 260348402750 141302 1911 329 109 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 483422 1072919 531135 72 254343391734 137320 2311 324 105 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 528456 1312719 581019 92 287379410789 123341 1911 352 124 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLE2 teams — 640555 15439215 7011910 33 277368436804 159328 1911 354 126 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLE3 teams — 462412 11027013 45842 01 267341427768 160307 1810 340 116 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 451387 9413111 54737 10 243348367714 124274 1612 326 107 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLE2 teams — 640555 15439215 7011910 33 277368436804 159328 1911 354 126 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLE3 teams — 462412 11027013 45842 01 267341427768 160307 1810 340 116 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 451387 9413111 54737 10 243348367714 124274 1612 326 107 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEPIT 100% 477414 10320113 54826 21 249344396740 146280 1711 332 111 +6 +0 +4 -9 +10 1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXPIT 100% 392340 8517110 44675 11 248343390733 141281 1711 330 111 +5 -0 +3 -7 +8 1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEPIT 92% 377327 8015110 42665 00 245340386726 140277 1811 327 107 +3 +0 +1 -7 +8 0.6
202931 MLB MLEPIT 92% 359312 741409 40644 00 240334373707 134273 1811 320 102 +1 +0 +0 -6 +8 0.3
202830 MLB CTXPIT 92% 347301 741518 39614 00 244339380719 136278 1811 325 107 +3 +0 +1 -6 +8 0.5
202931 MLB CTXPIT 92% 330286 691408 37594 00 239333368701 129274 1811 317 102 +1 +0 +0 -6 +7 0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19641703 43390250 22034825 11 254348398746 143290 1811 334 113 +30 -0 -1 -49 +43 2.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650564 14430117 731158 00 255349402752 147291 1811 334 113 +10 -0 -0 -16 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 42513699 961211898 46679453 2914 260351401752 141304 1911 335 113 +36 -0 +2 -57 +52 3.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650566 14632115 711218 42 258349398746 140301 1911 335 113 +10 -0 +1 -15 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 33 PAwOBA .354 → .298 (−57)K% 21.2% → 26.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.21%÷0.965×1.200——26.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.03%÷1.112×0.690—×0.9921.87%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9920.00%
Singles /BIP29.17%÷1.008×0.930—×0.99226.71%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.995×0.830—×0.9926.89%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷0.915×0.700—×0.9923.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .354 → .298; ISO .161 → .125; BABIP .375 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 18 PAwOBA .195 → .152 (−43)K% 11.1% → 14.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.11%÷0.947×1.220——14.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.033×0.700—×0.9687.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9680.00%
Singles /BIP7.14%÷1.024×0.970—×0.9686.55%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.036×0.860—×0.9685.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950—×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.891×0.780—×0.9680.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .195 → .152; ISO .062 → .051; BABIP .143 → .123. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 259 PAwOBA .421 → .362 (−59)K% 15.8% → 18.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.83%÷1.004×1.200——18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.99%÷1.028×0.690—×1.00311.44%
HBP% /PA1.16%—×0.940—×1.0031.09%
Singles /BIP25.15%÷0.988×0.930×1.012×1.00324.04%
Doubles /BIP12.87%÷0.959×0.830×1.012×1.00311.31%
Triples /BIP1.17%÷1.150×0.970×1.012×1.0031.00%
Home runs /BIP2.34%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0031.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .421 → .362; ISO .179 → .153; BABIP .401 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 484 PAwOBA .414 → .354 (−60)K% 14.9% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.88%÷0.973×1.200——18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.50%÷0.984×0.690—×1.01811.06%
HBP% /PA1.65%—×0.940—×1.0181.58%
Singles /BIP28.44%÷1.018×0.930×0.983×1.01826.01%
Doubles /BIP9.38%÷1.033×0.830×0.983×1.0187.54%
Triples /BIP0.31%÷1.150×0.970×0.983×1.0180.26%
Home runs /BIP3.12%÷0.916×0.700—×1.0182.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .414 → .354; ISO .158 → .131; BABIP .386 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 281 PAwOBA .401 → .349 (−52)K% 19.2% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.22%÷1.012×1.220——23.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.95%÷0.911×0.700—×0.99811.47%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.850—×0.9981.21%
Singles /BIP21.91%÷0.991×0.970×1.035×0.99822.17%
Doubles /BIP10.67%÷1.067×0.860×1.035×0.9988.89%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷0.900×0.950×1.035×0.9980.61%
Home runs /BIP5.62%÷1.027×0.780—×0.9984.26%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 102, BB 82 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .401 → .349; ISO .220 → .178; BABIP .347 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 202 PAwOBA .325 → .289 (−36)K% 20.3% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.30%÷1.018×1.200——23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.85%÷1.032×0.690—×1.03310.25%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×1.0330.48%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.960×0.930×1.044×1.03320.90%
Doubles /BIP10.77%÷0.984×0.830×1.044×1.0339.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.149×0.970×1.044×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP1.54%÷0.951×0.700—×1.0331.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .325 → .289; ISO .117 → .103; BABIP .312 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 469 PAwOBA .374 → .326 (−47)K% 14.1% → 19.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.07%÷0.991×1.350——19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.93%÷0.944×0.710—×0.98811.10%
HBP% /PA1.07%—×0.810—×0.9880.85%
Singles /BIP22.91%÷0.974×0.910×1.030×0.98821.79%
Doubles /BIP8.67%÷0.938×0.830×1.030×0.9887.81%
Triples /BIP0.31%÷1.049×0.820×1.030×0.9880.25%
Home runs /BIP3.10%÷0.909×0.830—×0.9882.79%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 110, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .374 → .326; ISO .154 → .139; BABIP .324 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 16 PAwOBA .516 → .423 (−93)K% 12.5% → 15.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷0.990×1.220——15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.966×0.690—×1.0120.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷1.022×0.940—×1.01213.30%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷1.039×0.870—×1.01212.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.920—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP14.29%÷0.973×0.780—×1.01211.58%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .516 → .423; ISO .500 → .396; BABIP .333 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .