Garrett Cooper

1B Gwinnett Stripers
Age 36 R/R 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202332MLBSD457.251/.305/.4191701050.4
202433AAABAL84.310/.402/.52140109—.284/.354/.446
202433MLBBOS116.206/.267/.2991057-0.7
202534AAAATL138.228/.312/.3092132—.186/.239/.233
202635No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB36MLBATL11.258/.315/.39100990.0
2028PROJ37MLBATL80.244/.300/.3632087-0.8
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
xwOBA69
Barrel%65
Bat Spd65
Avg EV47
Speed36
CompsEdgard Clemente (age 36) · Jolbert Cabrera (age 36) · Hunter Pence (age 36)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 10299vR 89
AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .315 / .391
PA11
HR0
K%27
BB%9
BABIP330
ISO158
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -2.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +2.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.82728
Tools · Splits · ContractPOW 57
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT—
xAVG
530.254
POWER57
Barrel%
6510.4
Avg EV
4788.9
Bat Spd
6572.9
EYE42
scouting grade only
SPEED48
Sprint
3626.8
Platoon Splits2024 · 116 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
43
73
—
wRC+
77
49
◀◀L
wOBA
283
240
◀L
ISO
122
076
◀◀L
BABIP
357
256
◀◀L
K%
30.2%
30.1%
—
BB%
4.7%
6.9%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2017
Service   10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.0$0.0M-$1M
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201322 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 133122 35632 10331 00 287346434780 148379 258 347 67 — — — — — —
201322 ROKHelena Brewers — 7062 17404 7181 00 274357532889 258325 2610 389 53 — — — — — —
201423 A+Brevard County Manatees — 188164 391102 18515 10 238332341673 104330 2710 309 49 — — — — — —
201423 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 3230 10301 042 00 333375533908 200360 120 401 97 — — — — — —
201423 ROKAZL Brewers — 1916 6101 330 00 3754746251.099 250417 1616 478 110 — — — — — —
201524 AABiloxi Shuckers — 3629 16210 720 00 5526396901.329 138593 619 579 230 — — — — — —
201524 A+Brevard County Manatees — 470422 1243228 35888 11 294359436795 142352 197 352 82 — — — — — —
201625 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox — 139127 35505 10201 00 276333433766 157291 147 339 70 — — — — — —
201625 AABiloxi Shuckers — 329301 902214 20555 33 299353419771 120351 176 343 89 — — — — — —
201726 MLBNew York Yankees — 4543 14510 1120 00 326341488829 163438 272 355 127 +1 +0 -1 -7 +1 -0.6
201726 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 327286 10229017 33492 00 3574276361.063 280376 1510 452 149 — — — — — —
201726 AATrenton Thunder — 2320 8101 360 00 4004786001.078 200538 2613 473 147 — — — — — —
201827 MLBMiami Marlins — 3833 7100 4121 00 212316242558 30333 3211 269 72 -1 +0 +1 -1 +1 -0.0
201827 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes — 3430 9101 351 00 300382433816 133333 159 368 86 — — — — — —
201827 A+Jupiter Hammerheads — 2018 3000 220 00 167250167417 188 1010 206 -4 — — — — — —
201928 MLBMiami Marlins — 421381 10716115 331105 00 281346446792 165357 268 351 131 +16 +0 -1 -8 +9 1.7
201928 A+Jupiter Hammerheads — 1613 7201 300 00 5386259231.548 385500 019 648 282 — — — — — —
202029 MLBMiami Marlins — 133120 34806 11312 00 283353500853 217337 238 376 150 +8 +0 -3 -2 +3 0.6
202130 MLBMiami Marlins — 250215 611019 30684 11 284382465847 181374 2712 377 149 +14 -0 -5 -3 +5 1.2
202231 MLBMiami Marlins — 469414 1083329 4011910 00 261341415756 155340 259 336 122 +12 +0 -1 -8 +10 1.3
202332 MLBSan Diego Padres — 457422 10618117 311322 00 251305419725 168324 297 321 105 +3 +0 -0 -8 +10 0.4
202433 MLBBoston Red Sox — 116107 22511 7352 00 206267299566 93296 306 259 57 -6 +0 +0 -4 +3 -0.7
202433 AAANorfolk Tides — 8471 22304 9202 00 310402521924 211367 2411 399 109 — — — — — —
202534 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 138123 28402 13332 10 228312309621 81295 249 288 32 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 19291735 45996757 15751926 11 265335427761 162344 278 338 115 +35 -0 -10 -41 +42 2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201322 A MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 133125 28421 7461 00 224271312583 88353 355 267 67 — — — — — —
201322 ROK MLEHelena Brewers — 7065 11203 4261 00 169229338567 169241 376 246 53 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 188169 321002 13775 10 189267284551 95320 417 241 49 — — — — — —
201423 A MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 3230 8201 062 00 267312433746 167307 190 312 97 — — — — — —
201423 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 1917 5101 240 00 294368529898 235312 2111 331 110 — — — — — —
201524 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 3631 15210 530 00 4845566131.168 129537 814 508 230 — — — — — —
201524 A+ MLEBrevard County Manatees — 470431 1043027 261278 11 241297369666 128315 276 289 82 — — — — — —
201625 AAA MLEColorado Springs Sky Sox — 139131 30404 6271 00 229268351619 122255 194 271 70 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 329309 862113 12675 33 278316382698 104338 204 300 89 — — — — — —
201726 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4543 14510 1120 00 326341488829 163438 272 356 127 +1 +0 -1 -7 +1 -0.6
201726 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 327301 9727012 18592 00 322364532896 209352 186 388 149 — — — — — —
201726 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2321 7101 270 00 333391524915 190491 309 386 147 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 3833 7100 4121 00 212316242558 30333 3211 275 72 -1 +0 +1 -1 +1 -0.0
201827 AAA MLENew Orleans Baby Cakes — 3431 8101 261 00 258324387711 129282 186 296 86 — — — — — —
201827 A+ MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 2019 3000 130 00 158200158358 161 155 162 -4 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 421381 11017116 331105 00 289353465818 176357 268 363 131 +16 +0 -1 -8 +9 1.7
201928 A+ MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 1614 7201 200 00 5005628571.420 357439 012 585 282 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 133120 35906 11312 00 292361517878 225337 238 390 150 +8 +0 -3 -2 +3 0.6
202130 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 250215 631119 30684 11 293390479869 186374 2712 388 149 +14 -0 -5 -3 +5 1.2
202231 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 469414 1123629 4011910 00 271349432782 162340 259 349 122 +12 +0 -1 -8 +10 1.3
202332 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 457422 10819117 311322 00 256310427736 171324 297 323 105 +3 +0 -0 -8 +10 0.4
202433 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 116107 21411 7352 00 196259280539 84296 306 253 57 -6 +0 +0 -4 +3 -0.7
202433 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 8474 21303 6222 00 284354446800 162324 267 329 109 — — — — — —
202534 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 138129 24301 7412 10 186239233472 47256 305 215 32 — — — — — —
201322 A MLE2 teams — 203190 40724 11722 00 211261332593 121316 355 260 62 — — — — — —
201322 A RAW2 teams — 203184 521036 17512 00 283350467817 185362 258 361 62 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLE3 teams — 239216 441303 15867 10 204277306583 102320 366 258 61 — — — — — —
201423 A+ RAW3 teams — 239210 551504 21587 10 262349390739 129342 249 335 61 — — — — — —
201524 A+ MLE2 teams — 506462 1203337 311298 11 260317390707 130342 256 305 92 — — — — — —
201524 A+ RAW2 teams — 506451 1403438 42908 11 310379452832 142370 188 368 92 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLE2 teams — 468440 1162517 18946 33 264302373674 109318 204 291 83 — — — — — —
201625 AA RAW2 teams — 468428 1252719 30756 33 292347423770 131333 166 342 83 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLE3 teams — 395365 11833113 21782 00 323363526889 203374 205 384 146 — — — — — —
201726 AAA RAW3 teams — 395349 12435118 37672 00 3554206161.036 261391 179 442 146 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE3 teams — 9282 17201 8212 00 207293268562 61267 239 258 61 -4 +0 +1 -1 +2 -0.2
201827 MLB RAW3 teams — 9281 19201 9192 00 235326296622 62295 2110 292 61 -4 +0 +1 -1 +2 -0.2
201928 MLB MLE2 teams — 437395 11820117 351105 00 299363484847 185374 258 371 137 +19 +0 -1 -8 +9 2.0
201928 MLB RAW2 teams — 437394 11418116 361105 00 289356462818 173363 258 362 137 +19 +0 -1 -8 +9 2.0
202029 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 133120 35906 11312 00 292361517878 225349 238 390 150 +8 +0 -3 -2 +3 0.6
202029 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 133120 34806 11312 00 283353500853 217337 238 376 150 +8 +0 -3 -2 +3 0.6
202130 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 250215 631119 30684 11 293390479869 186388 2712 388 149 +14 -0 -5 -3 +5 1.2
202130 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 250215 611019 30684 11 284382465847 181374 2712 377 149 +14 -0 -5 -3 +5 1.2
202231 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 469414 1123629 4011910 00 271349432782 162354 259 349 122 +12 +0 -1 -8 +10 1.3
202231 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 469414 1083329 4011910 00 261341415756 155340 259 336 122 +12 +0 -1 -8 +10 1.3
202332 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 457422 10819117 311322 00 256310427736 171331 297 323 105 +3 +0 -0 -8 +10 0.4
202332 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 457422 10618117 311322 00 251305419725 168324 297 321 105 +3 +0 -0 -8 +10 0.4
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 200181 41714 13574 00 227293343635 116303 286 285 79 -5 +0 +0 -4 +4 -0.4
202433 MLB RAW2 teams — 200178 44815 16554 00 247323388711 140325 288 318 79 -5 +0 +0 -4 +4 -0.4
202534 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 138129 24301 7412 10 186239233472 47264 305 215 32 — — — — — —
202534 AAA RAWGwinnett Stripers — 138123 28402 13332 10 228312309621 81295 249 288 32 — — — — — —
201322 A MLE2 teams — 203188 40724 11722 00 213261335596 122314 355 260 62 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLE3 teams — 239215 441303 15867 10 205277307584 102318 366 258 61 — — — — — —
201524 A+ MLE2 teams — 506462 1203337 311298 11 260317390707 130331 256 305 92 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLE2 teams — 468441 1162517 18946 33 263302372674 109313 204 291 83 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLE3 teams — 395369 11833113 21782 00 320363520884 201370 205 384 146 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE3 teams — 9282 17201 8212 00 207293268562 61277 239 258 61 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLE2 teams — 437394 11820117 351105 00 299363485848 185360 258 371 137 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 133119 35906 11312 00 294361521882 227337 238 390 150 — — — — — —
202130 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 250214 631119 30684 11 294390481871 187374 2712 388 149 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 469416 1123629 4011910 00 269349430779 161340 259 349 122 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 457421 10819117 311322 00 257310428737 171324 297 323 105 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 200181 41714 13574 00 227293343635 116308 286 285 79 — — — — — —
202534 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 138128 24301 7412 10 188239234474 47256 305 215 32 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 200181 41714 13574 00 227293343635 116308 286 285 79 — — — — — —
202534 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 138128 24301 7412 10 188239234474 47256 305 215 32 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202736 MLB MLEATL 10% 178163 42814 11452 21 258315391706 133330 256 314 99 -0 +0 +1 -3 +4 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202736 MLB CTXATL 10% 1110 2000 130 00 258315391706 133330 279 314 99 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202837 MLB MLEATL 100% 8074 18302 5211 00 244300363662 119316 266 296 87 -1 +0 -6 -1 +2 -0.8
202837 MLB CTXATL 100% 8074 18302 5211 00 244300363662 119316 266 296 87 -1 +0 -6 -1 +2 -0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20091809 47799759 16254027 11 264333424757 160342 278 337 104 +33 -0 -16 -42 +44 1.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 15432219 521759 00 263333422755 159342 278 337 104 +11 -0 -5 -14 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 41773806 100122614103 283108758 85 263324411735 148340 267 323 104 +33 +0 -15 -44 +46 2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650592 15535216 441699 11 262322409731 147337 267 323 104 +10 +0 -5 -14 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 138 PAwOBA .281 → .215 (−66)K% 23.9% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.91%÷0.976×1.200——29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.42%÷1.140×0.690—×0.9405.36%
HBP% /PA1.45%—×0.940—×0.9401.28%
Singles /BIP24.44%÷0.968×0.930×1.006×0.94022.21%
Doubles /BIP4.44%÷1.162×0.830×1.006×0.9403.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.006×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP2.22%÷0.961×0.700—×0.9401.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .281 → .215; ISO .081 → .054; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 84 PAwOBA .398 → .329 (−68)K% 23.8% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.81%÷1.070×1.200——26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.71%÷0.987×0.690—×0.9407.04%
HBP% /PA2.38%—×0.940—×0.9402.10%
Singles /BIP29.41%÷0.962×0.930×1.020×0.94027.27%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.006×0.830×1.020×0.9404.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.020×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP7.84%÷0.996×0.700—×0.9405.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .398 → .329; ISO .211 → .153; BABIP .367 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 16 PAwOBA .630 → .585 (−46)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA0.00%÷1.007×1.420——0.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.75%÷0.998×0.750—×0.94013.24%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷1.045×0.920—×0.94025.46%
Doubles /BIP15.38%÷0.931×0.960—×0.94014.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.120×0.810—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷0.803×0.880—×0.9407.92%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .630 → .585; ISO .385 → .413; BABIP .500 → .439. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 34 PAwOBA .359 → .296 (−63)K% 14.7% → 18.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.71%÷1.055×1.290——17.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.82%÷0.990×0.710—×0.9926.27%
HBP% /PA2.94%—×0.980—×0.9922.86%
Singles /BIP28.00%÷1.054×0.900—×0.99223.72%
Doubles /BIP4.00%÷0.906×0.810—×0.9923.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.031×0.810—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷0.952×0.780—×0.9923.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .359 → .296; ISO .133 → .110; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 20 PAwOBA .201 → .162 (−39)K% 10.0% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.00%÷1.009×1.420——14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷0.967×0.750—×0.9487.35%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×0.9480.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.018×0.920—×0.94816.07%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.903×0.960—×0.9480.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.810—×0.9480.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.850×0.880—×0.9480.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .201 → .162; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .188 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 327 PAwOBA .445 → .388 (−57)K% 15.0% → 18.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.98%÷0.995×1.200——18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.87%÷1.105×0.690—×1.0035.56%
HBP% /PA0.61%—×0.940—×1.0030.58%
Singles /BIP23.63%÷0.980×0.930×1.035×1.00323.28%
Doubles /BIP12.24%÷0.951×0.830×1.035×1.00311.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.035×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP7.17%÷1.247×0.840—×1.0034.85%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .445 → .388; ISO .280 → .222; BABIP .376 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATrenton Thunder · 23 PAwOBA .461 → .386 (−75)K% 26.1% → 31.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.09%÷1.007×1.220——31.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.04%÷0.979×0.700—×0.9789.13%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9780.00%
Singles /BIP42.86%÷1.020×0.970—×0.97839.87%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.936×0.860—×0.9786.42%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950—×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷0.960×0.780—×0.9785.68%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .461 → .386; ISO .200 → .160; BABIP .538 → .491. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABiloxi Shuckers · 329 PAwOBA .337 → .300 (−37)K% 16.7% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.72%÷0.999×1.220——20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.08%÷1.152×0.680—×0.9883.54%
HBP% /PA1.52%—×0.840—×0.9881.26%
Singles /BIP25.61%÷0.973×0.920×1.034×0.98824.73%
Doubles /BIP8.94%÷0.955×0.910×1.034×0.9888.71%
Triples /BIP0.41%÷0.922×0.880×1.034×0.9880.40%
Home runs /BIP1.63%÷1.243×0.800—×0.9881.03%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 95, 2B 91, 3B 84, K 100, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .337 → .300; ISO .120 → .103; BABIP .351 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).