Walbert Urena — OGILVIE

Walbert Urena P Los Angeles Angels

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION146 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%21.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3540

CMD2030

K†4055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

CH+1.9 (34%)

SI (32%)

SL (14%)

FB-2.6 (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.7	$11M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.8	$11M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$52M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	12	10	37	170	45	32	2	83%	3.1	18.0%	23.5%	-5.5%	1.7%	3.86	5.52	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	12	10	37	170	45	32	2	83%	3.1	26.5%	18.8%	7.6%	1.2%	3.86	3.96	—
2023	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	99	446	97	60	5	95%	4.5	16.1%	15.9%	0.2%	1.6%	5.66	4.64	—
2023	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	99	446	97	60	5	95%	4.5	16.1%	15.9%	0.2%	1.6%	5.66	4.64	—
2023	19	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	99	446	97	60	5	95%	4.5	21.7%	13.5%	8.3%	1.1%	5.66	3.62	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	77	346	64	54	3	100%	4.8	14.2%	17.9%	-3.7%	1.2%	4.19	4.82	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	77	346	64	54	3	100%	4.8	14.2%	17.9%	-3.7%	1.2%	4.19	4.82	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	77	346	64	54	3	100%	4.8	18.5%	15.6%	2.9%	0.9%	4.19	4.04	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	604	125	73	8	100%	5.0	16.1%	13.3%	2.8%	1.6%	4.34	4.31	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	604	125	73	8	100%	5.0	16.1%	13.3%	2.8%	1.6%	4.34	4.31	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	604	125	73	8	100%	5.0	20.7%	12.1%	8.6%	1.3%	4.34	3.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	25	137	580	131	65	9	93%	5.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	1.6%	2.88	3.46	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	29	27	146	617	138	69	10	93%	5.0	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	1.5%	3.09	3.45	+2.6
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	29	27	146	617	138	69	10	93%	5.0	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	1.5%	3.09	3.45	+2.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	LAA	2	2	8	37	7	4	1	100%	4.2	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	2.7%	6.48	4.36	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	LAA	27	25	137	580	131	65	9	93%	5.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	1.6%	2.88	3.46	+2.4
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	LAA	27	25	137	580	131	65	9	93%	5.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	1.6%	2.88	3.46	+2.4
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAA	3	3	14	60	13	8	1	100%	4.7	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	2.1%	4.10	4.10	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	14	59	12	8	1	100%	4.7	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	2.2%	4.12	4.12	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	160	677	151	77	11	—	—	22.3%	11.3%	10.9%	1.7%	3.18	3.50	+2.7
FULL	22	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	151	640	151	77	11	—	—	23.5%	12.0%	11.6%	1.8%	3.36	3.60	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	33	33	175	739	159	90	14	100%	5.3	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	1.9%	4.29	4.22	+1.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	32	32	179	757	168	90	14	100%	5.6	22.2%	11.8%	10.3%	1.8%	4.18	4.11	+1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	31	31	180	760	171	89	14	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	1.8%	4.10	4.04	+1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	180	760	173	88	14	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.1%	1.8%	4.05	4.02	+1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	177	749	170	88	14	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	1.9%	4.06	4.06	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	726	164	86	14	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.0%	4.11	4.14	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	164	694	155	84	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	2.1%	4.21	4.27	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	154	652	144	81	15	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.4%	9.7%	2.3%	4.35	4.45	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	144	608	132	77	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.5%	4.53	4.65	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	133	562	119	74	16	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.74	4.88	+0.0
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	122	516	107	70	16	100%	6.1	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.13	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	31	31	166	701	151	86	13	100%	5.4	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	1.9%	4.31	4.24	+1.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	30	30	170	718	159	85	13	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.8%	10.3%	1.9%	4.20	4.13	+1.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	29	29	171	722	163	84	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	1.8%	4.12	4.06	+1.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	171	722	164	84	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.1%	1.8%	4.07	4.04	+1.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	168	709	161	83	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	1.9%	4.08	4.08	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	163	688	156	81	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.0%	4.13	4.16	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	147	80	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	2.1%	4.23	4.29	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	137	77	15	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.7%	2.4%	4.38	4.48	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	137	578	125	74	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.6%	4.56	4.68	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	127	536	114	70	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.91	+0.0
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	116	490	101	66	15	100%	6.1	20.7%	13.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	316	1844	7787	1723	943	165	99%	5.8	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	2.1%	4.21	3.93	+21.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	102	18	99%	5.8	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	2.1%	4.21	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		107	102	500	2183	388	322	33	95%	4.7	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	1.5%	4.18	4.31	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	873	155	129	13	95%	4.7	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	1.5%	4.18	4.31	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walbert Urena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	16.8%	15.2%	2.3%	—	4.12	22.1%	10.2%	534	-1.14	—	—	—
Robert Stephenson R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	22	SP	4.16	20.6%	13.3%	2.0%	.271	4.77	21.4%	9.1%	423	+0.61	2.99	778	81
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	77
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	77
Mike Baumann R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	15.0%	11.5%	1.6%	.262	3.52	21.2%	10.2%	200	-0.62	3.00	559	76
Tony Dibrell R 2018 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	19.4%	11.2%	2.4%	.291	4.94	16.2%	4.6%	157	+0.76	4.18	347	76
Jonathan Hernández R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	21.3%	11.9%	2.4%	.279	3.99	20.5%	10.6%	144	-0.15	2.63	775	76
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	75
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	75
Chris Ellis R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	17.2%	11.6%	3.1%	.290	3.97	18.0%	7.7%	410	-0.86	3.84	780	75
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	75
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	75
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	74
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	74
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	74
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	74
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	74
Tanner Houck R 2018 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.85	2.27	733	74
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	74
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	73
Trevor Bauer R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	22.8%	10.5%	3.1%	.273	3.25	25.8%	17.7%	542	-0.95	2.16	1,111	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.7	162	21.7%	12.4%	0.83	4.37
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32