Walbert Urena — OGILVIE

Walbert Urena P Salt Lake Bees

+0.4 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2029

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

xFIP3.57

SIERA3.77

K%18.2%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%5.5%

IP119

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2029

K†4550

CH+1.9 (35%)

SI (29%)

SL (14%)

FB-2.6 (51%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	ACL Angels	12	10	37	170	45	32	2	18.0%	23.5%	1.8%	3.86	5.54	-0.2
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	99	446	97	60	5	16.1%	15.9%	1.6%	5.66	4.62	+0.8
2024	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	16	77	346	64	54	3	14.2%	17.9%	1.2%	4.19	4.81	+0.3
2025	21	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	28	28	141	604	125	73	8	16.1%	13.3%	1.6%	4.34	4.31	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	4	2	10	52	9	6	1	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	LAA	21	21	117	496	90	63	11	18.2%	12.7%	2.3%	4.81	4.81	+0.7
2026 Total	22	MLB	LAA	—	—	127	548	99	69	12	18.1%	12.6%	2.3%	4.86	4.43	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	LAA	26	26	144	606	120	68	14	19.7%	11.2%	2.3%	4.60	4.50	+1.3
2028	24	MLB	LAA	30	30	163	689	142	71	16	20.6%	10.3%	2.3%	4.43	4.32	+1.8
2029	25	MLB	LAA	32	32	177	748	158	73	18	21.1%	9.7%	2.4%	4.30	4.22	+2.2
2030	26	MLB	LAA	32	32	177	748	160	72	18	21.4%	9.6%	2.4%	4.24	4.20	+2.2
2031	27	MLB	LAA	32	32	176	743	159	72	18	21.4%	9.7%	2.4%	4.22	4.21	+2.2
2032	28	MLB	LAA	32	32	173	732	156	71	18	21.3%	9.7%	2.4%	4.23	4.23	+2.1
2033	29	MLB	LAA	31	31	169	715	152	70	18	21.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.26	4.28	+2.0
2034	30	MLB	LAA	30	30	164	694	146	69	17	21.0%	9.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.34	+1.8
2035	31	MLB	LAA	29	29	158	669	139	67	17	20.8%	10.0%	2.6%	4.37	4.41	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	643	132	65	17	20.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.50	+1.4
2037	33	MLB	LAA	26	26	145	614	124	63	17	20.2%	10.3%	2.8%	4.54	4.60	+1.2
2038	34	MLB	LAA	25	25	138	583	116	61	17	19.9%	10.5%	2.9%	4.64	4.71	+0.9
2039	35	MLB	LAA	24	24	130	550	107	59	16	19.5%	10.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.83	+0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			82	77	364	1618	258	259	25	15.9%	16.0%	1.5%	4.64	4.62	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			45	42	200	888	142	142	14	15.9%	16.0%	1.5%	4.64	4.62	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walbert Urena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	18.2%	12.7%	2.3%	—	4.34	20.6%	10.2%	484	-0.47	—	—	—
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	92
Austin Brice R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	92
Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	92
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	90
Peyton Olejnik R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.1%	13.2%	1.6%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	90
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Will Schomberg R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	90
Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
Carlos Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	89
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	89
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	89
Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	89
Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.4%	13.3%	1.4%	.270	4.83	15.1%	2.7%	88	+0.77	4.06	191	89
Zach Fruit R 2028 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	88
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	88
Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	88
Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	88
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	87
Gabriel Encinas R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.2	$19M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+2.2	$20M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+2.2	$20M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.1	$20M	+$12M
Totals		$21M		$105M	+$85M