Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.28 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 131 | 534 | 106 | 53 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.0% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 3.17 | 3.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 131 | 534 | 106 | 53 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 3.17 | 3.59 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 124 | 492 | 142 | 45 | 4 | 92% | 5.2 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 2.98 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 124 | 492 | 142 | 45 | 4 | 92% | 5.2 | 28.9% | 9.1% | 19.7% | 0.8% | 2.98 | 2.32 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 18 | 81 | 337 | 76 | 40 | 8 | 82% | 3.7 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 4.24 | 4.23 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 18 | 81 | 337 | 76 | 40 | 8 | 82% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 13 | 94 | 409 | 104 | 34 | 9 | 39% | 2.9 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 3.56 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 13 | 94 | 409 | 104 | 34 | 9 | 39% | 2.9 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 4.39 | 3.22 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 71 | 296 | 70 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 71 | 296 | 70 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 57 | 0 | 58 | 264 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 5.55 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 57 | 0 | 58 | 264 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 5.55 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 10 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 5.73 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 65 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 78 | 336 | 74 | 35 | 10 | — | — | 22.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 7 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 59 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 4 | 229 | 997 | 204 | 103 | 30 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.34 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 3 | 200 | 870 | 178 | 90 | 26 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 237 | 78 | 571 | 2389 | 483 | 254 | 45 | 33% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 3.78 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 27 | 200 | 837 | 169 | 89 | 16 | 33% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 3.80 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Baumann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.04 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 121 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 72 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 68 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 68 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 68 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 68 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 67 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 66 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 65 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 65 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 64 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 64 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 64 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 64 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 64 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 64 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 1.32 | 4.83 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |