Drue Hackenberg

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#880ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	25	25	129	3.07	2.51	26.3%	11.3%	—	K 21.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.17
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	21	74	6.81	5.06	18.7%	15.1%	—	K 14.0% · BB 17.7% · FIP 6.12
2026	24	MIX3 levels	21	17	93	4.84	3.27	23.7%	10.7%	—	K 19.1% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.65
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	1	1	7	4.93	4.93	17.9%	12.4%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBATL	5	5	32	4.83	4.81	18.8%	11.9%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBATL	6	6	39	4.80	4.81	19.1%	11.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · David Griffin (age 25) · Chris Kachmar (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%17.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	29	13	6	0	100%	2.1	44.8%	20.7%	24.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.94	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	6	29	13	6	0	100%	2.1	44.8%	20.7%	24.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	0.5%	3.07	3.17	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	0.5%	3.07	3.17	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	26.3%	11.3%	15.0%	0.4%	3.07	2.51	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.81	6.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.81	6.12	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	18.7%	15.1%	3.6%	2.5%	6.81	5.06	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	17	93	410	97	44	6	81%	4.4	19.1%	9.4%	9.8%	1.8%	4.84	3.65	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	17	93	410	97	44	6	81%	4.4	19.1%	9.4%	9.8%	1.8%	4.84	3.65	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	17	93	410	97	44	6	81%	4.4	23.7%	10.7%	12.9%	1.5%	4.84	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	1	1	7	30	5	4	1	100%	7.0	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	2.5%	4.93	4.93	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	66	281	53	33	7	100%	6.0	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	2.6%	4.83	4.81	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	59	250	48	29	7	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	2.7%	4.80	4.81	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	254	54	28	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.60	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	55	233	49	26	7	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.72	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	50	210	43	24	7	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.90	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	32	135	25	16	3	100%	6.4	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	2.6%	4.83	4.81	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	39	165	31	19	4	100%	6.5	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	2.7%	4.80	4.81	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	46	194	41	21	5	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.60	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	46	194	41	21	6	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.72	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	43	182	37	21	6	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.90	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	207	872	176	99	25	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.75	4.38	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	96	24	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.75	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		70	66	302	1344	257	174	23	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.0%	6.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.08	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	889	170	115	15	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.0%	6.1%	1.7%	4.50	4.08	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 57 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.03 (+0.21)K% 21.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.93%	—	×0.860	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×0.900	11.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 28 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.70 (+0.56)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.53%	—	×0.810	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.72%	—	×1.100	5.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 8 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.85 (+1.47)K% 34.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.680	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.14%	—	×1.250	21.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 66 IPFIP 5.20 → 6.12 (+0.92)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.34%	—	×0.810	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.10%	—	×1.100	17.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.934	×1.200	3.58%

Result: FIP 5.20 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Braves · 8 IPFIP 1.17 → 2.20 (+1.03)K% 31.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.680	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.250	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.856	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.17 → 2.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 59 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.76 (+0.89)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.03%	—	×0.770	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.150	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.831	×1.250	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 46 IPFIP 1.55 → 2.21 (+0.65)K% 33.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.810	26.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.79%	—	×1.100	10.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.906	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.55 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 24 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.52 (+0.02)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.95%	—	×0.860	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.968	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drue Hackenberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.74	19.6%	8.1%	186	-0.19	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	90
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	88
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	87
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	84
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	84
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	83
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	83
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	82
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	81
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	81
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	19.6%	11.6%	1.06	4.79
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*