Drue Hackenberg — OGILVIE

Drue Hackenberg P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%16.9%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL4050

CMD3540

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	29	13	6	0	100%	2.1	44.8%	20.7%	24.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.94	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	29	13	6	0	100%	2.1	44.8%	20.7%	24.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.94	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	6	29	13	6	0	100%	2.1	44.8%	20.7%	24.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	0.5%	3.07	3.18	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	0.5%	3.07	3.18	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	129	547	144	62	2	100%	5.2	26.3%	11.3%	15.0%	0.4%	3.07	2.51	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.81	6.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.81	6.12	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	74	358	67	54	9	100%	3.5	18.7%	15.1%	3.6%	2.5%	6.81	5.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	20	16	88	383	92	43	4	80%	4.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.1%	1.3%	4.30	3.46	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	20	16	88	383	92	43	4	80%	4.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.1%	1.3%	4.30	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	ATL	3	3	8	35	12	6	0	100%	2.7	34.3%	17.1%	17.1%	0.0%	4.50	2.38	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ATL	5	5	28	106	26	5	1	100%	5.6	24.5%	4.7%	19.8%	0.9%	0.96	2.14	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ATL	12	8	52	242	54	32	3	67%	4.3	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.2%	6.06	3.57	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	6	24	4	4	1	100%	5.7	16.9%	15.4%	1.4%	2.6%	5.46	5.46	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	94	407	96	47	5	—	—	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	1.1%	4.37	3.58	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	497	90	68	13	100%	5.9	18.2%	13.7%	4.5%	2.7%	5.22	5.14	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	497	94	65	13	100%	5.9	18.9%	13.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.08	5.03	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	116	489	93	63	13	100%	6.1	19.1%	13.0%	6.1%	2.8%	5.03	5.02	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	112	474	90	62	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.9%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	107	453	85	60	14	100%	6.0	18.8%	13.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.16	5.22	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	101	426	79	58	14	100%	5.9	18.4%	13.5%	4.9%	3.2%	5.30	5.40	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	44	33	6	100%	5.7	18.2%	13.7%	4.5%	2.7%	5.22	5.14	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	81	342	65	45	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	13.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.08	5.03	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	92	388	74	50	11	100%	6.1	19.1%	13.0%	6.1%	2.8%	5.03	5.02	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	96	405	77	53	12	100%	6.0	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.9%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	95	401	75	53	12	100%	5.9	18.8%	13.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.16	5.22	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	71	52	12	100%	6.1	18.4%	13.5%	4.9%	3.2%	5.30	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	512	2161	406	286	62	100%	6.0	18.8%	13.2%	5.6%	2.9%	5.14	4.77	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	112	24	100%	6.0	18.8%	13.2%	5.6%	2.9%	5.14	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		69	65	297	1317	250	174	21	94%	4.3	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	1.6%	4.33	4.03	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	886	168	117	14	94%	4.3	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	1.6%	4.33	4.03	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drue Hackenberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	16.9%	15.4%	2.6%	—	5.06	18.7%	5.5%	351	-0.40	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	90
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	87
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	86
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	84
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	83
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	81
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	80
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	80
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	80
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	80
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	80
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	18.6%	13.5%	1.10	5.17
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39