Drue Hackenberg
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.53
FIP5.53
K%17.0%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%1.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 44.8% | 20.7% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.94 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 44.8% | 20.7% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.84 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 547 | 144 | 62 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 0.7% | 3.07 | 3.29 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 547 | 144 | 62 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.3% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 0.4% | 3.07 | 2.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 74 | 358 | 67 | 54 | 9 | 100% | 3.5 | 14.0% | 17.7% | -3.7% | 3.9% | 6.81 | 6.27 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 74 | 358 | 67 | 54 | 9 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.7% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 6.81 | 5.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 11 | 10 | 44 | 187 | 52 | 22 | 3 | 91% | 4.0 | 23.7% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.53 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 109 | 461 | 98 | 65 | 10 | — | — | 21.4% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 17.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.28 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.2% | 13.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.28 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 13.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 43 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 139 | 589 | 112 | 81 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 13.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 4.76 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 116 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 13.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 59 | 253 | 1121 | 223 | 163 | 22 | 98% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 47 | 200 | 885 | 176 | 129 | 17 | 98% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drue Hackenberg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.53 | 17.0% | 15.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.13 | 19.0% | 5.3% | 203 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 86 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 86 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 82 |
| Sam Wolff R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 81 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.86 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | .252 | 4.50 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 150 | -0.36 | 4.20 | 311 | 80 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 80 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 80 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.35 | 14.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 109 | 80 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 78 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 78 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.44 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.3% | .248 | 5.06 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 84 | +0.62 | 4.44 | 326 | 78 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.94 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .280 | 5.59 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 79 | +0.65 | 3.71 | 370 | 78 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 77 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.49 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.34 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 217 | -0.15 | 3.71 | 361 | 77 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 77 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 18.5% | 14.2% | 1.07 | 5.26 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |