Drey Jameson

P Reno Aces

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	20	8	69	4.33	4.10	20.5%	9.8%	0.4	K 19.4% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.23
2025	27	MIX3 levels	19	2	17	6.35	5.69	25.3%	13.8%	-0.2	K 24.8% · BB 10.9% · FIP 6.44
2026	28	MIX2 levels	41	0	51	6.71	4.24	21.0%	11.2%	0.2	K 18.9% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.38
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	135	0	142	4.68	4.77	22.6%	11.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ89% MLB	30	MLBARI	106	0	111	4.80	4.92	21.9%	11.1%	-0.5
2029PROJ91% MLB	31	MLBARI	90	0	94	4.96	5.10	21.1%	11.2%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

xwOBA vs25

K%10

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Carlos Frías (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.68

FIP4.77

K%22.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p1015.1%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	111	464	145	36	15	95%	5.3	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.7%	3.98	4.16	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	111	464	145	36	15	95%	5.3	31.2%	7.8%	23.5%	3.2%	3.98	3.22	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	157	683	156	53	23	97%	5.2	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	3.8%	5.56	4.51	+1.6
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	29	157	683	156	53	23	97%	5.2	22.8%	7.8%	15.1%	3.4%	5.56	4.03	+2.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	69	297	61	29	8	40%	3.4	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.33	4.23	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	8	69	297	61	29	8	40%	3.4	20.5%	9.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.10	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	87	22	12	4	11%	0.9	24.8%	10.9%	13.8%	7.4%	6.35	6.44	-0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	87	22	12	4	11%	0.9	24.8%	10.9%	13.8%	7.4%	6.35	6.44	-0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	2	17	87	22	12	4	11%	0.9	25.3%	13.8%	11.5%	4.6%	6.35	5.69	-0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	233	49	26	6	0%	1.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	2.8%	6.71	4.38	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	233	49	26	6	0%	1.2	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	2.8%	6.71	4.38	+0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	233	49	26	6	0%	1.2	21.0%	11.2%	9.9%	2.6%	6.71	4.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	7	87	371	74	38	9	21%	2.6	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	2.4%	3.19	4.05	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	135	0	142	600	136	67	19	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.68	4.77	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	119	0	125	529	116	59	18	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	99	0	104	437	92	49	16	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.96	5.10	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	106	0	111	469	102	52	16	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	90	0	94	397	84	44	14	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.96	5.10	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	7	293	1237	260	135	39	3%	1.3	21.0%	10.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.45	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		157	5	200	846	178	92	27	3%	1.3	21.0%	10.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		131	59	404	1764	376	158	65	45%	3.1	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	3.7%	5.10	4.45	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	29	200	873	186	78	32	45%	3.1	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	3.7%	5.10	4.45	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 32 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.62 (+0.34)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.860	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×0.900	9.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 13 IPFIP 5.53 → 6.44 (+0.91)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.79%	—	×0.860	24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×0.900	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	6.06%	÷0.904	×1.100	7.37%

Result: FIP 5.53 → 6.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 28 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.67 (+0.20)K% 19.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.860	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×0.900	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 114 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.17 (+0.58)K% 21.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.880	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.17%	—	×1.050	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	4.09%	÷0.965	×1.100	4.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 19 IPFIP 1.08 → 1.67 (+0.59)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.810	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.63%	—	×1.100	6.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.094	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.08 → 1.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 64 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.57 (+1.20)K% 28.5% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.52%	—	×0.770	21.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.972	×1.250	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 46 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.60 (+0.59)K% 35.1% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.05%	—	×0.810	28.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×1.100	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.271	×1.200	2.92%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drey Jameson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	22.6%	11.2%	3.2%	—	5.00	21.5%	10.4%	229	+0.23	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	68
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	66
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	65
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	65
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	64
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	63
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	63
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	63
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	62
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	62
Guillermo Moscoso R 2013 · 5.15 FIP	29	SU	5.15	24.2%	14.1%	4.2%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	486	62
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	61
Dinelson Lamet R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	29	SW	3.67	27.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.339	4.61	20.7%	8.6%	176	+0.94	2.11	778	61
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	61
David Lebron R 2021 · 5.56 FIP	27	SU	5.56	26.7%	14.7%	5.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	144	61
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	61
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	61
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	96	21.6%	11.0%	1.25	4.50
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*