Trent Baker

P St. Paul Saints

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 243 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AASTL	22	14	81	4.89	4.30	22.7%	12.0%	—	K 18.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.56
2025	26	MIX2 levels	35	15	96	3.86	3.66	24.0%	7.7%	—	K 20.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.86
2026	27	AAAMIN	40	12	76	4.95	4.10	23.9%	7.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIN	1	1	7	4.52	4.52	19.7%	7.0%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBMIN	4	4	23	4.58	4.63	19.8%	7.5%	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBMIN	5	5	31	4.69	4.78	19.8%	7.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Ramon Delgado (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%19.7%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	34	10	2	2	0%	1.0	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	5.9%	5.87	4.59	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	34	10	2	2	0%	1.0	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	5.9%	5.87	4.67	—
2022	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	25	25	123	530	138	48	8	100%	4.9	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	2.2%	3.14	4.05	—
2022	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	25	25	123	530	138	48	8	100%	4.9	26.0%	9.1%	17.0%	1.5%	3.14	2.87	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	22	120	497	105	26	11	96%	5.2	16.3%	6.0%	10.3%	2.5%	3.69	3.88	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	23	22	120	497	105	26	11	96%	5.2	21.1%	5.2%	15.9%	2.2%	3.69	3.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	22	14	81	357	81	43	10	64%	3.7	18.4%	13.2%	5.1%	2.4%	4.89	4.56	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	22	14	81	357	81	43	10	64%	3.7	18.4%	13.2%	5.1%	2.4%	4.89	4.56	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	22	14	81	357	81	43	10	64%	3.7	22.7%	12.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.30	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	96	413	99	32	12	43%	2.7	20.0%	7.6%	12.4%	2.7%	3.86	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	96	413	99	32	12	43%	2.7	20.0%	7.6%	12.4%	2.7%	3.86	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	15	96	413	99	32	12	43%	2.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.2%	2.9%	3.86	3.66	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	40	12	76	330	79	26	12	30%	1.9	20.6%	7.1%	13.5%	4.0%	4.95	4.46	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	40	12	76	330	79	26	12	30%	1.9	20.6%	7.1%	13.5%	4.0%	4.95	4.46	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	40	12	76	330	79	26	12	30%	1.9	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	3.6%	4.95	4.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIN	1	1	7	30	6	2	1	100%	7.0	19.7%	7.0%	12.7%	3.3%	4.52	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	269	53	20	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.63	+0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	57	241	48	19	9	100%	5.7	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.6%	4.69	4.78	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	19	7	3	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.63	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	31	131	26	10	5	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	3.6%	4.69	4.78	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	55	232	46	18	8	100%	6.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.5%	4.64	4.34	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	66	29	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.5%	4.64	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		153	88	504	2161	409	190	59	58%	3.3	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.00	4.13	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	35	200	858	162	76	24	58%	3.3	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.00	4.13	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 76 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.46 (+0.38)K% 23.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.860	20.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.88%	—	×0.900	7.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 45 IPFIP 5.01 → 4.84 (−0.17)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×0.900	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.81%	÷1.253	×1.100	4.22%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 50 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.87 (+0.59)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.88%	—	×0.810	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.85%	—	×1.100	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷0.986	×1.200	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 81 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.56 (+0.31)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.69%	—	×0.810	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.04%	—	×1.100	13.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.386	×1.200	2.43%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 120 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.88 (+0.68)K% 21.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.770	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.23%	—	×1.150	6.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.093	×1.250	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 123 IPFIP 2.88 → 4.05 (+1.17)K% 26.0% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.740	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×1.180	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷0.880	×1.300	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 8 IPFIP 4.59 → 6.86 (+2.27)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.680	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.000	×1.400	8.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 6.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	19.7%	7.0%	3.3%	—	4.70	19.8%	12.1%	121	+0.18	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	74
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	73
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	73
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	72
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	71
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	71
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	71
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	71
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	71
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	71
Noah Gotsis R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	15.9%	7.3%	2.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	19.8%	7.4%	1.33	4.59
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*