Trent Baker
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 243 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%19.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 5.9% | 5.87 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 5.9% | 5.87 | 4.67 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 123 | 530 | 138 | 48 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.14 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 123 | 530 | 138 | 48 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 2.87 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 23 | 22 | 120 | 497 | 105 | 26 | 11 | 96% | 5.2 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 3.69 | 3.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 23 | 22 | 120 | 497 | 105 | 26 | 11 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.1% | 5.2% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 22 | 14 | 81 | 357 | 81 | 43 | 10 | 64% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 22 | 14 | 81 | 357 | 81 | 43 | 10 | 64% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 15 | 96 | 413 | 99 | 32 | 12 | 43% | 2.7 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 15 | 96 | 413 | 99 | 32 | 12 | 43% | 2.7 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 28 | 4 | 39 | 175 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 14% | 1.4 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 6.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 109 | 471 | 89 | 41 | 13 | — | — | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 74 | 313 | 61 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.20 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 80 | 467 | 2006 | 371 | 187 | 49 | 57% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 860 | 159 | 80 | 21 | 57% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trent Baker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.58 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 133 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 84 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 81 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 81 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 81 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 79 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 79 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 78 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 78 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 77 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 77 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 76 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 76 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 76 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 76 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 1.10 | 4.50 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |