Brandon Walter
P
Houston Astros
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 201 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.9 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7888vR 97
ERA3.70
FIP3.71
K%21.2%
BB%2.0%
K-BB%19.2%
ROS IP108
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p810.282
FB+3.6 (32%)
CT+1.4 (27%)
CH (18%)
SI (13%)
SL-1.4 (22%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 2.6 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 3.51 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 2.6 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 22.5% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 2.26 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 89 | 364 | 132 | 20 | 6 | 56% | 3.6 | 27.5% | 6.4% | 21.2% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 3.03 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 89 | 364 | 132 | 20 | 6 | 56% | 3.6 | 36.3% | 5.5% | 30.8% | 1.6% | 2.92 | 1.69 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 58 | 233 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 28.1% | 1.7% | 26.4% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 2.94 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 58 | 233 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 32.2% | 3.0% | 29.2% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 2.22 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 117 | 519 | 104 | 42 | 13 | 60% | 3.9 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 117 | 519 | 104 | 42 | 13 | 60% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 3.84 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 101 | 390 | 101 | 11 | 13 | 80% | 5.1 | 24.4% | 2.9% | 21.5% | 3.3% | 2.75 | 3.24 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 101 | 390 | 101 | 11 | 13 | 80% | 5.1 | 25.9% | 2.8% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 2.75 | 3.10 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 99 | 417 | 88 | 8 | 13 | 100% | 6.6 | 21.2% | 2.0% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 3.71 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 138 | 584 | 120 | 17 | 20 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.6% | 2.9% | 17.7% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 3.97 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 129 | 544 | 108 | 19 | 20 | 100% | 6.8 | 19.9% | 3.6% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.09 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 119 | 503 | 97 | 21 | 19 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.2% | 4.2% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.32 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 109 | 462 | 85 | 22 | 19 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 4.58 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 100 | 421 | 74 | 22 | 18 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.5% | 5.2% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 4.87 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 89 | 377 | 63 | 22 | 18 | 100% | 6.9 | 16.6% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 5.18 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 131 | 553 | 114 | 16 | 19 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.6% | 2.9% | 17.7% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.03 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 122 | 515 | 103 | 18 | 19 | 100% | 6.8 | 19.9% | 3.6% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 4.15 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 113 | 477 | 92 | 20 | 19 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.2% | 4.2% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 104 | 439 | 81 | 21 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 4.2% | 4.65 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 90 | 380 | 67 | 20 | 17 | 100% | 6.9 | 17.5% | 5.2% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 4.94 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 77 | 325 | 54 | 19 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.6% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 5.26 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 113 | 104 | 715 | 3012 | 578 | 125 | 121 | 92% | 6.3 | 19.2% | 4.1% | 15.1% | 4.0% | 4.45 | 4.22 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 29 | 200 | 843 | 162 | 35 | 34 | 92% | 6.3 | 19.2% | 4.1% | 15.1% | 4.0% | 4.45 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 59 | 399 | 1644 | 381 | 92 | 48 | 60% | 4.0 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.45 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 30 | 200 | 825 | 191 | 46 | 24 | 60% | 4.0 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Walter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.71 | 21.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.21 | 19.9% | 16.4% | 386 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.94 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | .241 | 3.49 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 392 | -0.45 | 2.87 | 725 | 62 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.42 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.88 | 3.54 | 189 | 59 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 59 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 56 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 55 |
| John Lamb L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 54 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 54 |
| Joey Lucchesi L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.19 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .297 | 4.74 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 243 | +1.55 | 3.19 | 817 | 53 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 53 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +1.11 | 3.53 | 609 | 53 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.17 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 764 | 53 |
| Tommy Milone L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.42 | 17.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | .289 | 4.47 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 365 | +0.05 | 3.37 | 875 | 52 |
| Nick Greenwood L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.66 | 11.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 241 | 50 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 50 |
| Cole Irvin L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.26 | 17.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .282 | 4.31 | 13.5% | 5.9% | 198 | +0.05 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 50 |
| Yohan Flande L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 49 |
| Andrew Heaney L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.63 | 25.1% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .297 | 4.14 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 350 | +0.51 | 3.23 | 1,197 | 48 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 48 |
| Brendan McKay L 2025 · 2.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.65 | 20.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | .208 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.55 | 213 | 48 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.39 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | .386 | 3.01 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 171 | -0.38 | 2.82 | 331 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 112 | 19.2% | 4.0% | 1.48 | 4.33 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| José Urquidy ('23) | 5 | 81 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 1.49 | 3.98 |
| Masahiro Tanaka ('20) | 6 | 153 | 22.6% | 5.0% | 1.41 | 3.88 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |