Brandon Walter

P Houston Astros

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 201 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	11	11	58	3.59	2.22	32.2%	3.0%	—	K 28.1% · BB 1.7% · FIP 2.95
2023	26	MIX2 levels	30	18	117	4.92	3.84	20.0%	8.1%	2.2	K 17.7% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.03
2025	28	MIX2 levels	20	16	101	2.75	3.10	25.9%	2.8%	2.9	K 24.1% · BB 2.6% · FIP 3.33
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	11	11	74	3.59	3.68	21.8%	2.0%	1.5
2028PROJ87% MLB	31	MLBHOU	15	15	103	3.78	3.91	21.0%	2.9%	1.8
2029PROJ90% MLB	32	MLBHOU	13	13	88	4.03	4.18	20.3%	3.7%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.977First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs81

K%62

FB Velo12

CompsRyan Verdugo (age 30) · Matt Tomshaw (age 30) · John Bale (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 97

ERA3.59

FIP3.68

K%21.8%

BB%2.0%

K-BB%19.8%

Proj IP89

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL8080

CMD6565

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p4524.6%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$37M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	13	0	33	138	39	8	2	0%	2.6	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	2.0%	2.70	3.51	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	13	0	33	138	39	8	2	0%	2.6	28.3%	5.8%	22.5%	1.4%	2.70	2.26	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	89	364	132	20	6	56%	3.6	27.5%	6.4%	21.2%	2.3%	2.92	2.85	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	89	364	132	20	6	56%	3.6	36.3%	5.5%	30.8%	1.6%	2.92	1.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	58	233	75	7	6	100%	5.2	28.1%	1.7%	26.4%	3.7%	3.59	2.95	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	58	233	75	7	6	100%	5.2	32.2%	3.0%	29.2%	2.6%	3.59	2.22	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	519	104	42	13	60%	3.9	17.7%	7.4%	10.2%	2.7%	4.92	4.03	+1.9
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	117	519	104	42	13	60%	3.9	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	2.5%	4.92	3.84	+2.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	24.1%	2.6%	21.5%	3.5%	2.75	3.33	+2.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	24.1%	2.6%	21.5%	3.5%	2.75	3.33	+2.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	25.9%	2.8%	23.1%	3.3%	2.75	3.10	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	9	77	318	68	11	13	50%	4.3	21.4%	3.5%	17.9%	4.1%	4.23	3.96	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	11	11	74	312	68	6	10	100%	6.7	21.8%	2.0%	19.8%	3.2%	3.59	3.68	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	118	499	105	15	17	100%	7.0	21.0%	2.9%	18.1%	3.4%	3.83	3.96	+2.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	98	414	84	15	15	100%	6.5	20.3%	3.7%	16.6%	3.7%	4.09	4.24	+1.3
2030	33	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	80	337	66	15	13	100%	6.6	19.5%	4.3%	15.2%	3.9%	4.35	4.52	+0.8
2031	34	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	61	256	48	13	11	100%	6.7	18.7%	4.9%	13.8%	4.2%	4.63	4.82	+0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	103	435	92	13	15	100%	6.9	21.0%	2.9%	18.1%	3.3%	3.78	3.91	+1.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	88	372	75	14	13	100%	6.8	20.3%	3.7%	16.6%	3.6%	4.03	4.18	+1.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	73	308	60	13	12	100%	6.6	19.5%	4.3%	15.2%	3.8%	4.29	4.46	+0.7
2031	34	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	53	224	42	11	9	100%	6.6	18.7%	4.9%	13.8%	4.1%	4.57	4.76	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	56	393	1652	336	62	61	86%	6.0	20.3%	3.7%	16.6%	3.7%	4.12	3.89	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	28	200	842	171	32	31	86%	6.1	20.3%	3.7%	16.6%	3.7%	4.12	3.89	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		99	59	399	1644	378	86	47	60%	4.0	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	2.9%	3.54	3.40	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	30	200	825	190	43	24	60%	4.0	23.0%	5.2%	17.8%	2.9%	3.54	3.40	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 48 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.61 (+0.41)K% 27.5% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.53%	—	×0.860	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.93%	—	×0.900	3.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 94 IPFIP 3.70 → 3.97 (+0.27)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.31%	—	×0.860	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.008	×1.100	2.64%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 50 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.95 (+0.90)K% 34.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.69%	—	×0.810	28.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.53%	—	×1.100	1.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷1.004	×1.200	3.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 8 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.13 (+0.26)K% 18.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.880	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.050	11.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.939	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 58 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.55 (+1.38)K% 36.3% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.29%	—	×0.770	27.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.150	6.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.891	×1.250	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASalem Red Sox · 31 IPFIP 0.64 → 1.54 (+0.90)K% 36.2% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.22%	—	×0.740	26.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.72%	—	×1.180	5.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.858	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 0.64 → 1.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Red Sox · 33 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.51 (+1.27)K% 28.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.680	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.80%	—	×1.250	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Walter (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.68	21.8%	2.0%	3.2%	—	4.20	20.4%	16.8%	296	+0.52	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	74
Matt Tomshaw L 2019 · 3.09 FIP	30	SP-	3.09	21.6%	4.5%	2.3%	.297	8.67	18.4%	13.6%	53	+5.58	3.04	681	66
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	57
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	56
Dietrich Enns L 2021 · 2.96 FIP	30	SW	2.96	28.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	772	53
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	52
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	50
Nick Greenwood L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	28	SP-	3.71	11.2%	2.9%	2.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	277	50
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	49
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	48
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	48
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	47
Carlos Hernandez L 2017 · 3.07 FIP	30	SP	3.07	14.7%	4.0%	1.3%	.295	2.83	17.9%	12.4%	73	-0.24	2.83	331	47
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	47
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	21.4%	7.8%	3.9%	.294	2.82	24.5%	20.5%	332	-1.59	2.45	1,069	46
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	46
Alejandro Soto L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	14.9%	6.4%	2.4%	.367	4.15	15.9%	10.3%	97	+0.19	3.96	280	46
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	45
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	45
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	76	20.6%	3.4%	1.43	4.06
Edward Mujica ('17)	2.8	69	19.1%	3.9%	1.30	3.92
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*