Brandon Walter — OGILVIE

Brandon Walter P Houston Astros

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 201 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8290vR 98

ERA3.78

FIP3.79

K%20.8%

BB%2.0%

K-BB%18.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL8080

CMD6565

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p4524.6%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

FB+3.6 (32%)

CT+1.4 (27%)

CH (18%)

SI (13%)

SL-1.4 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$15M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	13	0	33	138	39	8	2	0%	2.6	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	2.0%	2.70	3.51	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	13	0	33	138	39	8	2	0%	2.6	28.3%	5.8%	22.5%	1.4%	2.70	2.26	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	89	364	132	20	6	56%	3.6	27.5%	6.4%	21.2%	2.3%	2.92	2.85	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	89	364	132	20	6	56%	3.6	36.3%	5.5%	30.8%	1.6%	2.92	1.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	58	233	75	7	6	100%	5.2	28.1%	1.7%	26.4%	3.7%	3.59	2.95	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	58	233	75	7	6	100%	5.2	32.2%	3.0%	29.2%	2.6%	3.59	2.22	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	519	104	42	13	60%	3.9	17.2%	7.4%	9.7%	2.7%	4.92	4.07	+1.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	519	104	42	13	60%	3.9	17.2%	7.4%	9.7%	2.7%	4.92	4.07	+1.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	117	519	104	42	13	60%	3.9	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	2.5%	4.92	3.84	+1.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	23.8%	2.6%	21.1%	3.5%	2.75	3.36	+1.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	23.8%	2.6%	21.1%	3.5%	2.75	3.36	+1.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	101	390	101	11	13	80%	5.1	25.9%	2.8%	23.1%	3.3%	2.75	3.10	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	9	77	318	68	11	13	50%	4.3	21.4%	3.5%	17.9%	4.1%	4.23	3.96	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	HOU	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	20.8%	2.0%	18.8%	3.3%	3.78	3.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	138	584	118	17	20	100%	6.6	20.2%	2.9%	17.3%	3.5%	3.96	4.04	+1.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	129	544	107	19	20	100%	6.8	19.6%	3.6%	16.0%	3.7%	4.17	4.29	+0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	119	503	95	21	20	100%	6.6	18.9%	4.2%	14.7%	3.9%	4.39	4.54	+0.5
2030	33	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	109	462	84	22	19	100%	6.8	18.1%	4.7%	13.4%	4.1%	4.64	4.82	+0.1
2031	34	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	100	421	72	22	19	100%	6.6	17.2%	5.2%	12.0%	4.4%	4.93	5.12	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	20	20	131	553	112	16	19	100%	6.5	20.2%	2.9%	17.3%	3.4%	3.91	3.99	+1.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	122	515	101	18	18	100%	6.8	19.6%	3.6%	16.0%	3.6%	4.11	4.23	+0.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	113	477	90	20	18	100%	6.6	18.9%	4.2%	14.7%	3.8%	4.33	4.48	+0.5
2030	33	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	104	439	80	21	18	100%	6.5	18.1%	4.7%	13.4%	4.0%	4.58	4.76	+0.1
2031	34	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	90	380	65	20	16	100%	6.9	17.2%	5.2%	12.0%	4.3%	4.86	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	93	638	2687	517	106	102	91%	6.3	19.2%	3.9%	15.3%	3.8%	4.31	4.06	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	29	200	843	162	33	32	91%	6.3	19.2%	3.9%	15.3%	3.8%	4.31	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		99	59	399	1644	374	86	47	60%	4.0	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	2.9%	3.54	3.43	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	30	200	825	188	43	24	60%	4.0	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	2.9%	3.54	3.43	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Walter (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	20.8%	2.0%	3.3%	—	4.28	19.6%	16.1%	386	+0.49	—	—	—
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2016 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	15.2%	1.6%	3.5%	.241	3.33	23.2%	18.4%	392	-0.62	2.79	725	62
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	60
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	59
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	59
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	55
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	55
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	54
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	53
Tommy Milone L 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP-	4.40	17.1%	4.6%	3.9%	.289	4.56	19.7%	14.9%	365	+0.16	3.51	875	53
Wade LeBlanc L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	31	SP-	3.65	20.3%	5.3%	2.9%	.289	4.62	18.7%	13.0%	351	+0.97	3.65	609	53
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	52
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	52
Nick Greenwood L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	28	SP-	3.71	11.2%	2.9%	2.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	241	51
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	51
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	49
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.67	15.9%	6.1%	243	+1.49	3.18	817	48
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	48
Carlos Hernandez L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SP-	3.47	13.4%	3.6%	1.9%	.386	2.97	16.1%	11.4%	171	-0.50	2.83	331	48
Greg Smith L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP-	3.37	11.8%	5.3%	1.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	120	47
Mike Montgomery L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP-	3.64	16.1%	6.6%	1.9%	.300	5.22	17.4%	8.6%	108	+1.58	3.43	764	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	122	19.3%	3.7%	1.46	4.27
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
John Means ('24)	1.9	78	20.6%	4.9%	1.64	3.60
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27