Brandon Walter
P
Houston Astros
+0.5
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 201 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.12
FIP3.98
xFIP3.14
SIERA3.21
K%23.3%
BB%5.0%
K-BB%18.3%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p810.282
FB+3.6 (32%)
CT+1.4 (27%)
CH (18%)
SI (13%)
SL-1.4 (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 3.51 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 25 | 14 | 89 | 364 | 132 | 20 | 6 | 27.5% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 2.92 | 2.89 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 11 | 11 | 58 | 233 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 28.1% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.59 | 2.95 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 18 | 117 | 519 | 104 | 42 | 13 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 20 | 16 | 101 | 390 | 101 | 11 | 13 | 24.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.75 | 3.35 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 20.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 95 | 403 | 82 | 22 | 13 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.26 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 78 | 22 | 13 | 20.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 73 | 22 | 13 | 19.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.48 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 67 | 22 | 13 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 62 | 21 | 12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 62 | 18 | 12 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 56 | 18 | 12 | 18.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 49 | 17 | 11 | 17.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.86 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 59 | 399 | 1644 | 381 | 92 | 48 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.46 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 30 | 200 | 825 | 191 | 46 | 24 | 23.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.54 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Walter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 20.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.37 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 276 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | .241 | 3.36 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 392 | -0.59 | 2.77 | 725 | 77 |
| Manny Parra L 2029 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.33 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.43 | 2.43 | 114 | 74 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 74 |
| Josh Outman L 2028 · 4.54 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.54 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.68 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.14 | 4.54 | 106 | 70 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.40 | 20.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | .318 | 4.33 | 20.6% | 14.4% | 167 | -0.07 | 4.10 | 424 | 68 |
| Matt Dermody L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 19.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | .347 | 4.22 | 17.9% | 12.4% | 79 | +0.04 | 2.38 | 348 | 68 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.16 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.82 | 17.0% | 12.1% | 47 | +1.66 | 2.68 | 289 | 68 |
| Dean Kiekhefer L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.03 | 17.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 219 | 67 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.53 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 367 | 66 |
| Joe Mantiply L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.68 | 18.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | .283 | 2.68 | 23.7% | 19.0% | 100 | -1.00 | 2.06 | 460 | 66 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | .281 | 4.91 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 147 | +1.18 | 3.00 | 368 | 66 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.09 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.08 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +0.99 | 3.09 | 145 | 66 |
| Bryan King L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.55 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 183 | 64 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.68 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 2.5% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 322 | 64 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 64 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 64 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 64 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.65 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.56 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.91 | 3.65 | 189 | 64 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 63 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 0.977 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $22M | +$12M | ||