Dasan Hill

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 21 LHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#72ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	62	3.19	2.78	31.1%	15.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.12
2026	20	A+TOR	21	21	61	5.28	2.48	34.1%	15.3%	—	K 26.3% · BB 17.6% · FIP 3.59
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.78	4.78	27.1%	17.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	10	10	54	4.53	4.40	27.5%	14.8%	0.6
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTOR	17	17	94	4.30	4.15	27.9%	13.1%	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$8M2033Arb-3$12M

Career WAR1.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 75%

CompsDalton Rogers (age 22) · DJ Herz (age 21) · Alex Clemmey (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%27.1%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.1	$12M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$12M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$12M	+2.1	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$28M		$58M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	1.3%	3.19	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	1.3%	3.19	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	31.1%	15.0%	16.1%	0.7%	3.19	2.78	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	0.9%	5.28	3.59	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	0.9%	5.28	3.59	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	34.1%	15.3%	18.8%	0.7%	5.28	2.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	27.1%	17.4%	9.7%	2.5%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	109	459	126	68	11	100%	5.4	27.5%	14.8%	12.8%	2.5%	4.53	4.40	+1.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	129	544	152	71	14	100%	5.6	27.9%	13.1%	14.8%	2.5%	4.30	4.15	+1.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	129	546	154	65	14	100%	5.6	28.2%	11.9%	16.2%	2.5%	4.11	3.98	+2.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	129	544	154	61	14	100%	5.9	28.4%	11.2%	17.2%	2.5%	3.97	3.87	+2.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	129	545	156	61	14	100%	5.9	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.85	+2.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	126	533	153	60	14	100%	6.0	28.6%	11.3%	17.3%	2.5%	3.89	3.89	+2.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	510	145	58	13	100%	6.0	28.5%	11.4%	17.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.97	+2.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	113	476	135	56	13	100%	5.9	28.2%	11.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.10	+1.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	103	433	121	52	13	100%	6.0	27.9%	12.0%	15.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.28	+1.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	92	387	106	48	12	100%	6.1	27.5%	12.3%	15.2%	3.2%	4.36	4.48	+1.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	81	342	92	43	12	100%	6.2	27.1%	12.7%	14.3%	3.5%	4.57	4.71	+0.7
2039	33	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	71	299	79	39	11	100%	5.9	26.6%	13.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.96	+0.4
2040	34	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	62	260	68	35	10	100%	6.2	26.0%	13.7%	12.3%	4.0%	5.06	5.23	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	54	228	63	34	6	100%	5.4	27.5%	14.8%	12.8%	2.5%	4.53	4.40	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	94	397	111	52	10	100%	5.5	27.9%	13.1%	14.8%	2.5%	4.30	4.15	+1.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	107	452	127	54	11	100%	5.6	28.2%	11.9%	16.2%	2.5%	4.11	3.98	+1.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	114	481	137	54	12	100%	6.0	28.4%	11.2%	17.2%	2.5%	3.97	3.87	+2.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	118	498	143	56	12	100%	5.9	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.85	+2.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	117	494	141	56	13	100%	5.8	28.6%	11.3%	17.3%	2.5%	3.89	3.89	+2.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	113	477	136	55	13	100%	5.9	28.5%	11.4%	17.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.97	+1.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	107	452	128	53	13	100%	5.9	28.2%	11.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.10	+1.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	114	49	12	100%	6.1	27.9%	12.0%	15.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.28	+1.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	87	367	101	45	12	100%	6.2	27.5%	12.3%	15.2%	3.2%	4.36	4.48	+0.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	88	41	11	100%	5.9	27.1%	12.7%	14.3%	3.5%	4.57	4.71	+0.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	67	283	75	37	11	100%	6.1	26.6%	13.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.96	+0.3
2040	34	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	56	236	61	32	10	100%	6.2	26.0%	13.7%	12.3%	4.0%	5.06	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	207	1208	5102	1425	617	145	100%	5.8	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	2.8%	4.20	3.83	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	236	102	24	100%	5.8	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	2.8%	4.20	3.83	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		40	40	123	554	136	97	6	100%	3.1	24.5%	17.6%	7.0%	1.1%	4.23	3.85	+19.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	898	221	158	10	100%	3.1	24.5%	17.6%	7.0%	1.1%	4.23	3.85	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 61 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.59 (+1.05)K% 34.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.770	26.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.33%	—	×1.150	17.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 52 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.12 (+1.23)K% 30.6% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.63%	—	×0.740	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×1.180	17.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷0.898	×1.300	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 10 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.20 (+0.94)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.56%	—	×1.150	17.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.962	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dasan Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.16	27.9%	14.7%	367	-0.62	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
DJ Herz L 2022 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP	4.57	26.4%	18.9%	2.4%	.246	3.70	26.2%	12.9%	222	-0.87	3.54	423	80
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	80
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	78
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	75
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	75
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	74
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	74
DL Hall L 2019 · 3.72 FIP	20	SP	3.72	25.8%	17.9%	1.0%	.289	3.68	32.5%	18.6%	122	-0.04	3.49	548	73
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	73
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	72
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	72
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	72
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	72
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	71
Maddux Bruns L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	21	SP	4.67	22.3%	18.0%	2.1%	.261	4.55	18.6%	-1.9%	93	-0.12	3.50	235	71
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	71
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	70
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	70
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	106	27.9%	12.5%	1.08	4.25
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02