Dasan Hill — OGILVIE

Dasan Hill P Vancouver Canadians

Age 20 LHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%24.7%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$10M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+1.9	$10M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$15M	+1.9	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$35M		$48M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	1.3%	3.19	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	1.3%	3.19	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	31.1%	15.0%	16.1%	0.7%	3.19	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	0.9%	5.28	3.59	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	26.3%	17.6%	8.7%	0.9%	5.28	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	TOR	21	21	61	287	98	44	2	100%	2.9	34.1%	15.3%	18.8%	0.7%	5.28	2.54	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	7	29	7	5	1	100%	6.9	24.7%	16.7%	8.0%	2.8%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	68	316	105	49	3	—	—	33.3%	15.5%	17.8%	0.9%	5.26	3.74	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	120	507	127	73	14	100%	5.5	25.0%	14.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.71	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	162	684	176	86	19	100%	5.6	25.8%	12.6%	13.1%	2.7%	4.56	4.40	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	32	32	175	739	194	85	20	100%	5.5	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.19	+1.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	32	32	179	757	203	81	20	100%	5.6	26.8%	10.7%	16.1%	2.7%	4.16	4.04	+1.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	31	31	180	760	207	78	20	100%	5.8	27.2%	10.3%	16.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.95	+2.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	30	30	180	760	208	78	20	100%	6.0	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+2.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	30	30	177	749	205	77	20	100%	5.9	27.4%	10.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.96	+2.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	172	726	198	76	20	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.5%	16.8%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+1.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	27	27	164	694	187	74	21	100%	6.1	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.18	+1.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	154	652	174	72	21	100%	5.9	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.26	4.36	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	144	608	160	69	21	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.56	+0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	133	562	145	66	20	100%	6.1	25.8%	11.8%	14.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.78	+0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	122	516	131	63	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.2%	13.1%	3.9%	4.88	5.03	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	59	249	62	36	7	100%	5.4	25.0%	14.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.71	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	118	498	128	63	14	100%	5.6	25.8%	12.6%	13.1%	2.7%	4.56	4.40	+0.7
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	27	27	148	625	164	72	17	100%	5.5	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.19	+1.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	29	29	160	676	181	73	18	100%	5.5	26.8%	10.7%	16.1%	2.7%	4.16	4.04	+1.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	28	28	165	697	189	72	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	10.3%	16.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.95	+1.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	28	28	168	709	194	73	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+1.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	28	28	168	709	194	73	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	10.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.96	+1.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	27	27	163	688	188	72	19	100%	6.0	27.3%	10.5%	16.8%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+1.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	156	659	178	71	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.18	+1.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	147	621	166	68	20	100%	6.1	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.26	4.36	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	137	578	152	66	20	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.56	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	127	536	138	63	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	11.8%	14.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.78	+0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	116	490	124	60	19	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.2%	13.1%	3.9%	4.88	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		317	317	1832	7737	2060	861	229	100%	5.8	26.6%	11.1%	15.5%	3.0%	4.27	3.88	+22.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	225	94	25	100%	5.8	26.6%	11.1%	15.5%	3.0%	4.27	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		40	40	123	554	136	97	6	100%	3.1	24.5%	17.6%	7.0%	1.1%	4.23	3.85	+15.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	898	221	158	10	100%	3.1	24.5%	17.6%	7.0%	1.1%	4.23	3.85	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dasan Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	24.7%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.40	25.8%	13.1%	457	-0.65	—	—	—
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	80
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	77
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	77
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	76
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	75
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	75
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.78	20.6%	8.1%	312	-0.21	4.16	461	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	72
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	72
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	71
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	71
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	71
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	71
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	71
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	71
Kris Bubic L 2018 · 3.97 FIP	20	SP	3.97	21.0%	13.8%	1.6%	.367	3.99	22.5%	13.0%	329	+0.02	2.16	750	70
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.7	153	26.5%	11.5%	1.14	4.31
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98