Dasan Hill — OGILVIE

Dasan Hill P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 20 LHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%24.4%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	22.7%	17.5%	5.1%	1.5%	3.19	4.22	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	19	19	62	267	83	40	2	100%	3.3	31.1%	15.0%	16.1%	0.7%	3.19	2.78	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	39	190	65	35	2	100%	2.8	26.3%	21.2%	5.2%	1.3%	6.18	4.28	+0.1
ROS	20	MLB	MIN	12	12	65	274	67	41	8	100%	5.4	24.4%	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.4%	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.89	4.89	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	MIN	—	—	104	464	132	76	10	—	—	28.4%	16.4%	12.0%	2.1%	5.37	4.65	+0.9
2026 FULL	20	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	24.4%	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.89	4.51	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIN	22	22	120	507	125	67	14	100%	5.5	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.69	4.61	+1.1
2028	22	MLB	MIN	29	29	162	684	173	80	19	100%	5.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.47	4.34	+2.0
2029	23	MLB	MIN	32	32	175	739	191	80	20	100%	5.5	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.15	+2.6
2030	24	MLB	MIN	32	32	179	757	200	78	20	100%	5.6	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	2.7%	4.13	4.03	+2.9
2031	25	MLB	MIN	31	31	180	760	203	76	20	100%	5.8	26.8%	10.0%	16.8%	2.7%	4.02	3.95	+3.1
2032	26	MLB	MIN	30	30	180	760	205	75	20	100%	6.0	27.0%	9.9%	17.1%	2.7%	3.96	3.92	+3.1
2033	27	MLB	MIN	30	30	177	749	202	75	20	100%	5.9	27.0%	10.0%	17.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+3.0
2034	28	MLB	MIN	29	29	172	726	195	74	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.1%	16.7%	2.8%	4.01	4.04	+2.7
2035	29	MLB	MIN	27	27	164	694	185	72	21	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	3.0%	4.11	4.18	+2.3
2036	30	MLB	MIN	26	26	154	652	171	69	21	100%	5.9	26.3%	10.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.26	4.35	+1.9
2037	31	MLB	MIN	24	24	144	608	157	67	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.44	4.55	+1.4
2038	32	MLB	MIN	22	22	133	562	143	64	21	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.6%	4.64	4.78	+1.0
2027	21	MLB	MIN	11	11	59	249	61	33	7	100%	5.4	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIN	21	21	118	498	126	59	14	100%	5.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.48	4.35	+1.5
2029	23	MLB	MIN	27	27	148	625	162	68	17	100%	5.5	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.7%	4.29	4.16	+2.2
2030	24	MLB	MIN	29	29	160	676	178	69	18	100%	5.5	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	2.7%	4.14	4.04	+2.5
2031	25	MLB	MIN	28	28	165	697	186	69	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.0%	16.8%	2.7%	4.03	3.96	+2.8
2032	26	MLB	MIN	28	28	168	709	191	70	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	9.9%	17.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+2.9
2033	27	MLB	MIN	28	28	168	709	191	71	19	100%	6.0	27.0%	10.0%	17.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.97	+2.8
2034	28	MLB	MIN	27	27	163	688	185	70	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.1%	16.7%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+2.6
2035	29	MLB	MIN	26	26	156	659	175	68	20	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.4%	16.2%	3.0%	4.12	4.19	+2.2
2036	30	MLB	MIN	24	24	147	621	163	66	20	100%	6.1	26.3%	10.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.27	4.36	+1.8
2037	31	MLB	MIN	23	23	137	578	150	64	20	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.45	4.56	+1.3
2038	32	MLB	MIN	21	21	127	536	136	61	20	100%	6.0	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.7%	4.65	4.79	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			298	298	1717	7248	1906	768	211	100%	5.8	26.3%	10.6%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	3.82	+31.7
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	222	89	25	100%	5.8	26.3%	10.6%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	3.82	+3.7
Career	—			33	33	101	457	111	87	6	100%	3.1	24.2%	19.1%	5.1%	1.4%	4.35	4.24	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			65	65	200	902	218	172	13	100%	3.1	24.2%	19.1%	5.1%	1.4%	4.35	4.24	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dasan Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	24.4%	15.1%	2.8%	—	4.34	25.4%	13.6%	457	-0.54	—	—	—
Johnny King L 2026 · 4.22 FIP	20	SP	4.22	23.7%	15.4%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	129	85
Hagen Smith L 2027 · 5.05 FIP	21	SP	5.05	27.4%	19.3%	3.3%	.247	4.82	29.9%	13.2%	52	-0.23	4.82	128	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2028 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP	4.67	19.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.266	3.89	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.78	2.81	146	82
Mason Molina L 2028 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	80
Sebastian Gongora L 2029 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	21.8%	14.0%	1.4%	.335	3.81	18.5%	11.0%	84	+0.01	3.80	152	79
Dalton Rogers L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	79
Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	78
John Beller L 2028 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	78
Caden Grice L 2028 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	77
Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	18	SP	4.20	21.6%	14.8%	1.9%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	420	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2029 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	75
Andrew Sears L 2027 · 4.18 FIP	21	SP	4.18	19.6%	15.4%	1.4%	.248	4.30	20.7%	11.8%	142	+0.12	3.45	232	74
Luke Fox L 2028 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP	5.14	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	.284	4.07	21.5%	8.4%	118	-1.07	2.79	148	74
Jordan Woods L 2026 · 4.61 FIP	20	SP	4.61	20.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.329	4.13	20.3%	7.4%	112	-0.48	3.74	143	74
Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	73
Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	19.7%	13.0%	1.9%	.303	5.26	17.9%	3.4%	302	+1.12	4.14	328	73
Hayden Mullins L 2029 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	73
Adam Serwinowski L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP	3.80	21.5%	14.5%	1.2%	.286	4.84	22.0%	8.6%	186	+1.04	3.80	299	73
Brent Killam L 2029 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	29.1%	14.5%	3.4%	.284	7.12	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.77	4.35	121	73
Boston Bateman L 2026 · 4.10 FIP	20	SP-	4.10	23.0%	13.7%	2.2%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	153	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	156	26.2%	10.9%	1.12	4.25
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89