Andrew Sears

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ADET	22	19	90	2.51	3.24	26.4%	13.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.25
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	22	111	3.49	3.15	26.3%	7.7%	—	K 20.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.26
2026	23	MIX5 levels	22	15	77	3.38	2.91	25.1%	8.6%	2.4	K 18.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.71
2027PROJ	24	MLBDET	16	16	92	4.47	4.63	19.4%	9.7%	0.8
2028PROJ81% MLB	25	MLBDET	15	15	87	4.40	4.42	20.4%	9.3%	0.9
2029PROJ88% MLB	26	MLBDET	14	14	87	4.37	4.36	20.9%	9.1%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.163First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs40

K%10

Form6.00 ERA (proj 4.47) · K 16.2% (proj 19.4%) · BB 9.5% (proj 9.7%) ▼ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 7.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCory Luebke (age 25) · John Gast (age 24) · John Koronka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.47

FIP4.63

K%19.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$20M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	26.4%	13.1%	13.4%	1.3%	2.51	3.24	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.4%	3.49	3.15	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.71	+1.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.71	+1.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	25.1%	8.6%	16.5%	1.5%	3.38	2.91	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	3	19	92	15	8	3	50%	3.2	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	3.3%	7.11	4.84	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	DET	16	16	92	388	75	38	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.63	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	107	453	92	42	13	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.49	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	99	419	88	38	12	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.43	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	94	399	84	36	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	89	377	79	35	11	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.54	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	82	347	70	33	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	74	311	61	30	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.79	4.91	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	275	52	28	10	100%	5.9	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.6%	5.00	5.14	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	87	367	75	34	10	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.7%	4.40	4.42	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	87	367	77	33	10	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.7%	4.37	4.36	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	85	359	75	33	10	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.39	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	14	14	82	346	72	32	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	2.9%	4.43	4.47	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	76	321	65	30	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.63	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	69	291	57	28	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.83	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	62	262	49	26	9	100%	6.2	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	95	568	2411	487	226	71	97%	5.8	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.20	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	849	171	80	25	97%	5.8	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		71	56	279	1181	233	132	27	79%	3.9	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	2.3%	3.13	4.12	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	847	167	94	20	79%	3.9	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	2.3%	3.13	4.12	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 35 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.42 (+0.64)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.810	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.100	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 12 IPFIP 2.02 → 2.74 (+0.72)K% 27.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.770	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×1.150	11.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 2.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 10 IPFIP 1.11 → 1.45 (+0.34)K% 41.2% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.18%	—	×0.860	35.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×0.900	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.11 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 82 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.42 (+1.29)K% 27.2% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.25%	—	×0.770	20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.41%	—	×1.150	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷0.850	×1.250	3.41%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 29 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.81 (+0.64)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.810	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.74%	—	×1.100	6.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.056	×1.200	2.79%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 90 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.25 (+1.01)K% 26.4% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.44%	—	×0.740	19.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.09%	—	×1.180	15.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷1.099	×1.300	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.46	20.7%	11.6%	301	-0.17	—	—	—
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	79
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	79
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	77
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	77
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	77
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	75
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	74
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	74
Jeff Locke L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	23.0%	7.4%	4.4%	.309	4.01	17.2%	8.4%	466	-0.50	3.79	676	73
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	73
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	73
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	72
J.A. Happ L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP-	3.90	18.8%	9.4%	2.2%	.260	4.38	18.4%	8.3%	410	+0.48	3.37	1,890	72
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	71
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	71
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	20.1%	9.4%	1.17	4.63
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Marvin Freeman ('86-'96, 5 WAR*)	3.0	74	17.7%*	9.6%*	1.19*	4.33*