Andrew Sears
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.3 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106116vR 125
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%20.8%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.48 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 7.10 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 22 | 19 | 90 | 382 | 101 | 50 | 5 | 86% | 4.1 | 19.6% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.51 | 4.18 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 22 | 19 | 90 | 382 | 101 | 50 | 5 | 86% | 4.1 | 26.4% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 1.3% | 2.51 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 111 | 467 | 123 | 36 | 11 | 85% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 3.49 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 111 | 467 | 123 | 36 | 11 | 85% | 4.3 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 3.49 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 10 | 10 | 33 | 139 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 2.73 | 3.45 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 98 | 413 | 97 | 38 | 10 | — | — | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.26 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 123 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 127 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 128 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 126 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 121 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 114 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 117 | 493 | 106 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 109 | 459 | 97 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 88 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 59 | 249 | 54 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 91 | 384 | 85 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.35 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 101 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 107 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 108 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 104 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 98 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 90 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 82 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 152 | 152 | 906 | 3824 | 830 | 361 | 122 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.21 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 51 | 235 | 993 | 202 | 115 | 25 | 86% | 4.0 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 2.99 | 4.26 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 43 | 200 | 846 | 172 | 98 | 22 | 86% | 4.0 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 2.99 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Sears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.44 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 406 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 85 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 85 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 85 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 84 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 325 | -0.33 | 3.66 | 437 | 83 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 83 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.54 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .318 | 3.35 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.19 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 82 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 82 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 82 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 81 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.16 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.74 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.42 | 3.21 | 332 | 81 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.47 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.03 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 264 | +0.56 | 2.44 | 496 | 80 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.15 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .258 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 92 | +0.11 | 4.15 | 200 | 80 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 80 |
| Everett Catlett L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.82 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .325 | 5.22 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 78 | +1.40 | 3.82 | 211 | 79 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 79 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 79 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 2.2% | .337 | 3.33 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 254 | -0.67 | 3.11 | 524 | 79 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 125 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 1.26 | 4.61 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |