Andrew Sears — OGILVIE

Andrew Sears P Erie SeaWolves

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 115

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%20.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—55

CMD3545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p2017.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	26.4%	13.1%	13.4%	1.3%	2.51	3.24	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.4%	3.49	3.15	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	2	17	73	13	4	2	50%	4.2	17.8%	5.5%	12.3%	2.7%	5.40	3.82	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	20	14	75	308	80	24	4	70%	3.8	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	1.7%	2.88	3.41	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	20	14	75	308	80	24	4	70%	3.8	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	1.7%	2.88	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	DET	1	1	2	6	4	0	0	100%	2.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	DET	4	4	12	51	14	5	0	100%	2.9	27.5%	9.8%	17.6%	0.0%	3.09	2.02	—
2026	23	AA RAW	DET	9	7	35	144	35	11	2	78%	3.9	24.3%	7.6%	16.7%	1.4%	2.57	2.78	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	DET	2	0	10	34	14	4	0	0%	4.8	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.11	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	DET	4	2	17	73	13	4	2	50%	4.2	17.8%	5.5%	12.3%	2.7%	5.40	3.79	+0.2
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	DET	4	2	17	73	13	4	2	50%	4.2	17.8%	5.5%	12.3%	2.7%	5.40	3.79	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	12	50	10	5	1	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.28	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	12	51	10	5	1	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	87	358	90	29	5	—	—	25.2%	8.1%	17.0%	1.5%	3.07	3.53	+1.3
FULL	23	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	29	121	90	29	5	—	—	74.9%	24.2%	50.7%	4.5%	9.32	2.30	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	134	567	120	53	16	100%	5.6	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.47	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	136	574	125	52	17	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	136	574	126	51	17	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	134	566	124	51	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.39	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	130	549	120	50	17	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	124	524	113	49	17	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.53	4.60	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	117	493	104	47	17	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.78	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	109	459	96	46	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.6%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	101	425	86	44	16	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.4%	10.0%	3.9%	5.07	5.21	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	128	540	114	50	15	100%	5.6	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.45	4.40	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	129	545	118	49	15	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.31	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	129	545	119	49	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.8%	4.31	4.28	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	127	536	117	48	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.8%	4.31	4.32	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	124	524	114	48	15	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	118	498	107	46	15	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.46	4.53	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	111	469	99	45	15	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.60	4.70	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	103	435	90	43	15	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.5%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	96	405	82	42	15	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.4%	10.0%	3.7%	4.98	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	184	1093	4618	986	429	140	99%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.14	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	180	78	26	99%	5.9	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		69	55	277	1162	232	127	26	80%	4.0	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	2.3%	2.99	4.04	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	840	167	92	19	80%	4.0	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	2.3%	2.99	4.04	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.8%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.40	21.6%	12.5%	406	-0.31	—	—	—
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	86
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	86
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	85
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	84
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	84
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Matthew Crownover L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP-	4.35	15.2%	8.6%	2.6%	.300	4.58	12.4%	4.3%	248	+0.23	4.35	377	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	79
Trey McGough L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	15.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.278	3.37	21.4%	13.3%	99	-0.35	2.83	227	79
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	79
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	79
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	79
Trey Dombroski L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	22.3%	8.4%	4.0%	.280	4.93	19.0%	8.3%	302	+0.45	3.80	421	79
Adam Seminaris L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	17.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.337	3.33	17.5%	9.4%	254	-0.54	3.00	577	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	125	21.4%	9.5%	1.22	4.58
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01