Miguel Flores

P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#564ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKCLE	12	8	38	5.02	4.40	20.9%	13.4%	—	K 14.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 5.30
2026	21	ACLE	27	12	89	4.33	3.63	25.4%	15.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 18.2% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.50	5.50	19.5%	17.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	5	5	32	5.18	5.05	20.7%	14.4%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	8	8	45	4.92	4.78	21.4%	12.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsColby Langford (age 22) · Joe Kemlage (age 23) · Bryce Hubbart (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%19.5%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	21.2%	16.5%	4.7%	1.6%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	21.2%	16.5%	4.7%	1.6%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	31.2%	13.2%	18.0%	1.6%	2.93	3.01	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%	2.3%	5.02	5.30	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%	2.3%	5.02	5.30	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	20.9%	13.4%	7.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.40	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	18.8%	18.2%	0.6%	1.7%	4.33	4.73	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	18.8%	18.2%	0.6%	1.7%	4.33	4.73	—
2026	21	A RAW	Hill City Howlers	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	25.4%	15.4%	10.0%	1.3%	4.33	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	17.1%	2.5%	2.7%	5.50	5.50	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	56	39	7	100%	5.8	20.7%	14.4%	6.3%	2.7%	5.18	5.05	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	58	34	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	12.7%	8.6%	2.7%	4.92	4.78	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	58	247	54	29	7	100%	5.8	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	2.7%	4.72	4.60	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	58	246	54	28	7	100%	5.8	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.57	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	57	239	53	28	7	100%	6.3	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.61	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	228	50	27	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.69	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	230	54	26	7	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.60	4.55	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	49	208	48	24	7	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.68	4.73	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	CLE	7	7	44	185	42	22	6	100%	6.3	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	32	135	28	20	4	100%	6.4	20.7%	14.4%	6.3%	2.7%	5.18	5.05	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	45	190	41	24	5	100%	5.6	21.4%	12.7%	8.6%	2.7%	4.92	4.78	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	47	198	43	23	5	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	2.7%	4.72	4.60	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	47	25	6	100%	6.4	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.57	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	47	25	6	100%	6.4	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.61	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	50	211	46	25	6	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.69	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	51	24	6	100%	6.4	23.6%	11.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.60	4.55	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	46	194	45	22	6	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.68	4.73	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	42	177	41	21	6	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	414	1747	388	208	51	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	2.9%	4.73	4.32	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	101	25	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	2.9%	4.73	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		50	31	173	751	138	131	14	62%	3.5	18.4%	17.4%	0.9%	1.8%	4.11	4.75	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	36	200	868	159	151	16	62%	3.5	18.4%	17.4%	0.9%	1.8%	4.11	4.75	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 89 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.73 (+1.12)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.38%	—	×0.740	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.180	18.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 38 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.30 (+1.00)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.680	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.37%	—	×1.250	16.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.388	×1.400	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 178).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL CLE Goryl · 46 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.30 (+1.28)K% 31.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.22%	—	×0.680	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.23%	—	×1.250	16.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷1.366	×1.400	1.63%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	19.5%	17.1%	2.7%	—	4.82	21.3%	8.3%	187	-0.68	—	—	—
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	82
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	81
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	81
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	80
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	80
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	79
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	79
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	78
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	76
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	75
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	75
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	75
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	75
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	55	21.9%	12.5%	1.11	4.83
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*