Miguel Flores — OGILVIE

Miguel Flores P Hill City Howlers

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%20.0%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	21.2%	16.5%	4.7%	1.6%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	21.2%	16.5%	4.7%	1.6%	2.93	4.30	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	11	11	46	189	59	25	3	100%	4.2	31.2%	13.2%	18.0%	1.6%	2.93	3.01	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%	2.3%	5.02	5.30	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%	2.3%	5.02	5.30	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	12	8	38	172	36	23	4	67%	3.1	20.9%	13.4%	7.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	18.8%	18.2%	0.6%	1.7%	4.33	4.73	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	18.8%	18.2%	0.6%	1.7%	4.33	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CLE	27	12	89	390	99	60	5	44%	3.3	25.4%	15.4%	10.0%	1.3%	4.33	3.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	388	82	51	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.07	4.95	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	95	402	88	47	11	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.81	4.67	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	98	413	93	44	12	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.8%	11.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.49	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	99	418	96	42	12	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.38	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	99	418	96	42	12	100%	6.2	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	97	411	95	42	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.39	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	94	399	92	41	12	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.48	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	90	381	87	40	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	85	358	80	39	12	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	79	334	80	35	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.71	4.72	+0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	73	309	73	33	12	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	3.8%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	45	190	40	25	5	100%	6.4	21.2%	13.2%	8.0%	2.9%	5.07	4.95	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	69	291	64	34	8	100%	6.3	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.81	4.67	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	81	342	77	37	10	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.8%	11.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.49	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	87	367	84	37	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.38	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	90	380	88	38	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	90	380	88	39	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.39	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	88	372	85	38	11	100%	6.3	23.0%	10.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.48	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	86	363	82	38	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	81	342	77	37	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	75	317	76	33	11	100%	6.2	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.71	4.72	+0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	70	296	70	32	11	100%	6.4	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	3.8%	4.84	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	863	3643	832	390	111	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.60	4.20	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	90	26	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.60	4.20	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		50	31	173	751	138	131	14	62%	3.5	18.4%	17.4%	0.9%	1.8%	4.11	4.75	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	36	200	868	159	151	16	62%	3.5	18.4%	17.4%	0.9%	1.8%	4.11	4.75	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	20.0%	15.5%	2.9%	—	4.70	21.9%	10.1%	285	-0.67	—	—	—
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.4%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	81
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	79
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	78
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	78
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	76
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	75
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	75
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	75
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Osbriel Mogollon L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SW	4.34	16.5%	16.9%	0.9%	.312	6.58	9.9%	-20.6%	33	+2.24	3.77	117	74
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	74
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	74
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	74
Juan Pablo Lopez L 2021 · 5.34 FIP	22	SP-	5.34	19.0%	14.0%	3.8%	.325	4.24	14.7%	-0.4%	28	-1.10	4.24	115	73
Sam Clay L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SW	4.18	15.9%	14.1%	1.1%	.330	3.69	17.9%	3.0%	232	-0.49	2.50	514	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	86	22.7%	10.9%	1.18	4.64
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04