DJ Herz — OGILVIE

DJ Herz P Washington Nationals

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2028

ERA4.19

FIP4.20

xFIP3.85

SIERA3.77

K%25.6%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%14.3%

IP89

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2028

K†6060

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p8027.7%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

FB+6.2 (54%)

SL+1.4 (4%)

CH-0.8 (25%)

CT-3.3 (17%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	6	6	10	50	8	8	0	10.9%	20.0%	0.0%	2.61	4.71	+0.0
2021	20	A+	South Bend Cubs	20	20	82	324	131	44	7	30.2%	16.0%	2.9%	3.31	4.15	+0.9
2022	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	95	418	141	70	8	26.4%	18.9%	2.4%	4.25	4.58	+0.7
2023	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	22	22	94	411	133	57	5	26.2%	15.3%	1.3%	3.43	3.55	+1.8
2024	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	29	29	128	550	150	68	14	26.3%	12.7%	2.3%	4.08	3.77	+2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	WSH	27	—	27	112	28	13	3	25.1%	11.3%	2.8%	4.10	4.35	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	WSH	17	17	96	404	101	44	11	24.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.22	4.32	+1.0
2028	27	MLB	WSH	18	18	99	418	103	45	12	24.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.32	+1.1
2029	28	MLB	WSH	18	18	100	420	103	44	12	24.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.34	+1.1
2030	29	MLB	WSH	18	18	97	411	99	44	12	24.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2031	30	MLB	WSH	17	17	94	399	94	43	12	23.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.51	+0.8
2032	31	MLB	WSH	17	17	91	385	88	42	12	22.9%	10.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.61	+0.6
2033	32	MLB	WSH	16	16	88	369	82	40	12	22.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.5
2034	33	MLB	WSH	15	15	84	353	76	39	11	21.6%	11.1%	3.3%	4.78	4.85	+0.3
2035	34	MLB	WSH	14	14	79	335	77	35	11	22.9%	10.5%	3.4%	4.75	4.72	+0.4
2036	35	MLB	WSH	14	14	75	316	70	34	11	22.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.82	4.87	+0.2
2037	36	MLB	WSH	13	13	70	295	63	32	11	21.4%	11.0%	3.6%	4.95	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			103	103	410	1753	466	273	38	26.6%	15.6%	2.1%	3.78	4.01	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—			50	50	200	856	228	133	19	26.6%	15.6%	2.1%	3.78	4.01	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
DJ Herz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	25.1%	11.3%	2.8%	—	4.33	24.8%	14.0%	294	-0.02	—	—	—
Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	27.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.300	4.62	24.4%	14.8%	149	+0.99	3.63	206	86
Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP	26	SU	3.49	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.65	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.16	3.47	160	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP	25	SU	4.47	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	4.16	19.5%	9.2%	53	-0.31	4.16	101	83
Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.47	23.3%	11.4%	113	+0.77	3.70	229	82
Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP	25	SU	3.22	26.4%	11.0%	1.7%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.63	2.48	122	81
Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP	25	SU	3.29	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.39	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.10	3.29	142	81
Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	23.6%	11.8%	2.7%	.341	8.17	20.1%	1.1%	25	+4.12	3.97	158	81
Ryan O'Rourke L 2028 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	27.4%	12.9%	2.6%	.284	3.09	23.4%	16.7%	53	-0.75	3.09	145	81
Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	21.0%	9.8%	2.9%	.308	5.20	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.04	2.45	120	80
Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	24.8%	14.2%	2.3%	.382	3.83	21.7%	10.6%	156	-0.22	2.44	171	80
Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.72 FIP	25	SU	3.72	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.72	28.6%	11.9%	76	-0.00	3.13	101	79
Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP	26	SW	3.62	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.93	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.31	1.66	186	79
Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP	25	SU	3.29	21.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.331	3.71	18.1%	10.1%	167	+0.42	3.12	310	78
Jake Miednik L 2026 · 4.93 FIP	25	SU	4.93	23.7%	11.7%	4.3%	.308	6.03	10.5%	-4.1%	32	+1.10	1.55	126	78
Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	24.6%	11.0%	3.9%	.296	2.82	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.75	2.58	160	78
Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP	25	SU	3.21	21.0%	8.8%	1.4%	.276	4.94	23.0%	2.4%	14	+1.73	2.63	160	77
Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	25.2%	14.7%	1.5%	.381	4.34	22.0%	10.0%	109	+0.71	3.04	194	77
Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.08	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.54	3.43	152	77
Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	21.2%	11.7%	3.5%	.338	3.49	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.22	1.78	560	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2028 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	22.8%	12.2%	0.8%	.292	3.73	20.2%	11.3%	127	+0.57	2.70	175	77

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.605 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$32M	+$21M