DJ Herz — OGILVIE

DJ Herz P Rochester Red Wings

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 197 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.7 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 88 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 106

ERA4.09

FIP4.33

K%25.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP89

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p8027.7%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

FB+6.2 (54%)

SL+1.4 (4%)

CH-0.8 (25%)

CT-3.3 (17%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.605 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$8M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	6	6	10	50	8	8	0	100%	1.7	10.9%	20.0%	-9.1%	0.0%	2.61	4.71	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	6	6	10	50	8	8	0	100%	1.7	16.0%	16.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.61	3.87	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	82	324	131	44	7	100%	4.1	30.2%	16.0%	14.2%	2.9%	3.31	4.16	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	82	324	131	44	7	100%	4.1	40.4%	13.6%	26.9%	2.2%	3.31	2.62	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	95	418	141	70	8	100%	3.7	26.4%	18.9%	7.5%	2.4%	4.25	4.57	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	95	418	141	70	8	100%	3.7	33.7%	16.7%	17.0%	1.9%	4.25	3.44	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	22	22	94	411	133	57	5	100%	4.3	26.2%	15.3%	11.0%	1.3%	3.43	3.54	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	22	22	94	411	133	57	5	100%	4.3	26.2%	15.3%	11.0%	1.3%	3.43	3.54	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	22	22	94	411	133	57	5	100%	4.3	32.4%	13.9%	18.5%	1.2%	3.43	2.78	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	128	550	150	68	14	100%	4.4	25.9%	11.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.08	3.84	+1.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	128	550	150	68	14	100%	4.4	25.9%	11.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.08	3.84	+1.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	128	550	150	68	14	100%	4.4	27.3%	12.4%	14.9%	2.5%	4.08	3.77	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	19	89	382	106	36	11	100%	4.7	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	2.9%	4.16	3.54	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	10	10	26	103	30	7	4	100%	2.6	18.4%	6.7%	11.8%	8.1%	3.16	6.86	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	10	10	26	103	30	7	4	100%	2.6	18.4%	6.7%	11.8%	8.1%	3.16	6.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	WSH	2	2	5	16	8	0	0	100%	2.5	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	25	A RAW	WSH	2	2	4	18	6	1	0	100%	1.9	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	2.45	0.99	—
2026	25	AA RAW	WSH	2	2	4	15	4	2	0	100%	2.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.54	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	WSH	4	4	13	54	12	4	4	100%	3.2	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	7.4%	5.54	6.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	127	537	138	59	16	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.30	+0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	546	139	59	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	546	137	59	17	100%	5.9	25.1%	10.7%	14.4%	3.1%	4.36	4.41	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	521	127	57	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	116	490	116	55	17	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	457	105	53	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.4%	3.7%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	86	363	93	40	11	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.30	+0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	101	426	108	46	13	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	116	49	14	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.7%	14.4%	3.1%	4.36	4.41	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	108	456	111	50	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	105	443	105	50	15	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.78	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	99	418	96	48	15	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.5%	11.4%	3.7%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	120	697	2950	736	318	94	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.44	4.11	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	847	211	91	27	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.44	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		113	113	435	1856	483	275	47	100%	3.9	26.0%	14.8%	11.2%	2.6%	3.74	4.18	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	853	222	126	22	100%	3.9	26.0%	14.8%	11.2%	2.6%	3.74	4.18	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
DJ Herz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	25.9%	11.3%	2.9%	—	4.35	25.4%	14.6%	386	+0.02	—	—	—
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	77
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	77
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	76
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.1%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,061	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	75
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	73
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	72
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	71
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	71
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	71
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	71
Adam Scott L 2021 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	22.8%	11.7%	3.4%	.289	5.05	19.0%	4.1%	122	+0.52	4.17	315	70
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.67	19.4%	7.6%	142	+0.41	4.26	250	70
Jacob Latz L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	23.6%	11.4%	3.7%	.299	4.50	23.5%	11.8%	160	-0.07	2.26	473	69
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	68
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	68
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	68
Hogan Harris L 2022 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP	3.71	27.4%	14.7%	1.9%	.274	4.49	20.6%	9.4%	328	+0.78	3.11	495	68
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	67
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	116	24.7%	11.0%	1.23	4.43
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58