DJ Herz
P
FCL Nationals
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 197 lbs
ROK
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.3 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 107
ERA4.11
FIP4.38
K%26.1%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p7629.3%
K%
p8027.7%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
FB+6.2 (54%)
SL+1.4 (4%)
CH-0.8 (25%)
CT-3.3 (17%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 10.9% | 20.0% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 2.61 | 4.71 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 16.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.61 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 82 | 324 | 131 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 30.2% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 3.31 | 4.21 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 82 | 324 | 131 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 40.4% | 13.6% | 26.9% | 2.2% | 3.31 | 2.62 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 95 | 418 | 141 | 70 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 26.4% | 18.9% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.60 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 95 | 418 | 141 | 70 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33.7% | 16.7% | 17.0% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 22 | 22 | 94 | 411 | 133 | 57 | 5 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.2% | 15.3% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 3.47 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 22 | 22 | 94 | 411 | 133 | 57 | 5 | 100% | 4.3 | 32.4% | 13.9% | 18.5% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 2.78 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 128 | 550 | 150 | 68 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 26.3% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.92 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 128 | 550 | 150 | 68 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.3% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 3.77 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 3 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 60 | 252 | 66 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 67 | 280 | 77 | 30 | 7 | — | — | 27.4% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.00 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 110 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 103 | 436 | 111 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 103 | 436 | 110 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 102 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 49 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 83 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 84 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 64 | 360 | 1526 | 395 | 165 | 46 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 3.94 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 849 | 220 | 92 | 26 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 106 | 417 | 1781 | 477 | 273 | 39 | 100% | 3.9 | 26.8% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 3.73 | 3.98 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 51 | 200 | 854 | 229 | 131 | 19 | 100% | 3.9 | 26.8% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 3.73 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| DJ Herz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 25.6% | 14.3% | 307 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.21 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.81 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.60 | 3.21 | 372 | 77 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .295 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 66 | +0.79 | 3.28 | 297 | 77 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.65 | 24.2% | 14.0% | 401 | -0.81 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 75 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 73 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 72 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.71 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .289 | 5.15 | 19.3% | 3.3% | 122 | +0.44 | 4.53 | 315 | 72 |
| Quinn Mathews L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.07 | 26.2% | 15.5% | 4.0% | .207 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 316 | 71 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 71 |
| Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 70 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.62 | 27.5% | 15.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 239 | 70 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.84 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .319 | 5.33 | 17.2% | -8.1% | 22 | +1.49 | 3.84 | 129 | 69 |
| Mason Molina L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.56 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 165 | 68 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.49 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.58 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.09 | 2.43 | 453 | 68 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.64 | 27.4% | 14.7% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.52 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 328 | +0.88 | 3.14 | 473 | 67 |
| Tyler Switalski L 2024 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.33 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 171 | 67 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.49 | 24.7% | 13.3% | 1.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 198 | 67 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 197 | 67 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 66 |
| Mike Minor L 2029 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 66 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.36 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .203 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 284 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 93 | 25.4% | 11.3% | 1.18 | 4.34 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Dinelson Lamet ('23) | 6 | 61 | 30.0% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Caleb Smith ('22) | 4 | 104 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 1.67 | 4.47 |