Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 52 | 216 | 83 | 32 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 30.2% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 52 | 216 | 83 | 32 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 38.4% | 14.8% | 23.6% | 1.4% | 3.61 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 64 | 289 | 65 | 58 | 4 | 94% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 23.3% | -5.9% | 1.7% | 3.64 | 5.53 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 64 | 289 | 65 | 58 | 4 | 94% | 4.0 | 22.5% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.64 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 30 | 2 | 40 | 180 | 35 | 40 | 6 | 7% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 25.6% | -10.6% | 3.0% | 7.26 | 6.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 30 | 2 | 40 | 180 | 35 | 40 | 6 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 22.2% | -2.8% | 3.3% | 7.26 | 6.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 26 | 111 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 26 | 111 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.41 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 106 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 32 | 156 | 685 | 142 | 145 | 15 | 52% | 2.6 | 20.8% | 21.2% | -0.4% | 2.2% | 4.55 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 41 | 200 | 876 | 182 | 186 | 20 | 52% | 2.6 | 20.8% | 21.2% | -0.4% | 2.2% | 4.55 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steve Hajjar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.79 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 26 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 81 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 74 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 73 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 73 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 72 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 72 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 71 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 70 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.22 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.47 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 271 | +1.25 | 3.71 | 484 | 69 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.94 | 24.8% | 16.0% | 3.5% | .450 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 256 | 68 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 68 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 68 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 68 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 68 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 67 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 67 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 66 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 66 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 313 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 1.15 | 4.83 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |