Alex Clemmey — OGILVIE

Alex Clemmey P Harrisburg Senators

Age 21 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122131vR 140

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%21.3%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4055

CTRL—40

CMD4050

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$28M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	23.3%	19.0%	4.3%	1.2%	4.58	4.17	—
2024	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	31.5%	16.1%	15.3%	1.0%	4.58	3.05	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	3.1%	3.47	5.12	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	26.8%	14.4%	12.4%	2.4%	3.47	3.98	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	AA	Harrisburg Senators	18	18	83	369	85	54	9	100%	4.6	18.7%	16.1%	2.6%	2.9%	4.32	5.17	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	13	13	65	274	58	44	8	100%	5.0	21.3%	16.0%	5.2%	3.1%	5.40	5.40	-0.6
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.3%	16.0%	5.2%	3.1%	5.40	5.40	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	148	643	143	98	17	—	—	22.3%	15.2%	7.1%	2.7%	4.79	5.27	+0.2
2026 FULL	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	21.3%	16.0%	5.2%	3.1%	5.40	5.02	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	WSH	28	28	144	606	136	82	18	100%	5.1	22.5%	13.6%	8.9%	3.0%	5.08	4.95	+0.8
2028	23	MLB	WSH	28	28	149	629	146	75	19	100%	5.3	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.67	+1.3
2029	24	MLB	WSH	27	27	153	644	153	71	19	100%	5.7	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.60	4.48	+1.6
2030	25	MLB	WSH	26	26	154	652	157	67	19	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+1.9
2031	26	MLB	WSH	26	26	154	652	158	67	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+1.9
2032	27	MLB	WSH	25	25	152	643	156	67	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+1.8
2033	28	MLB	WSH	25	25	148	623	150	66	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+1.6
2034	29	MLB	WSH	24	24	141	595	142	64	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.8%	13.1%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	+1.3
2035	30	MLB	WSH	22	22	132	559	131	62	19	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.68	4.77	+1.0
2027	22	MLB	WSH	14	14	72	304	68	41	9	100%	5.1	22.5%	13.6%	8.9%	3.0%	5.08	4.95	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	WSH	20	20	109	460	107	55	14	100%	5.5	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.67	+0.9
2029	24	MLB	WSH	23	23	127	536	127	59	16	100%	5.5	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.60	4.48	+1.4
2030	25	MLB	WSH	23	23	137	578	139	60	17	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+1.7
2031	26	MLB	WSH	24	24	141	595	144	61	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+1.7
2032	27	MLB	WSH	24	24	141	595	144	62	18	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+1.7
2033	28	MLB	WSH	23	23	138	583	140	61	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+1.5
2034	29	MLB	WSH	22	22	134	566	135	61	18	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.1%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	+1.3
2035	30	MLB	WSH	21	21	126	532	125	59	18	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.68	4.77	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			194	194	1126	4756	1130	520	145	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.56	4.15	+16.5
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	201	92	26	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.56	4.15	+2.9
Career	—			68	68	292	1268	266	217	31	100%	4.3	20.9%	17.1%	3.8%	2.4%	4.06	4.84	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			47	47	200	868	182	148	21	100%	4.3	20.9%	17.1%	3.8%	2.4%	4.06	4.84	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Clemmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	21.3%	16.0%	3.1%	—	4.70	23.1%	11.0%	445	-0.70	—	—	—
Tyler Pike L 2026 · 5.38 FIP	21	SP	5.38	15.6%	14.3%	3.2%	.290	4.57	19.4%	2.7%	301	-0.81	3.42	565	82
Jackson Ferris L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	21	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.0%	2.1%	.314	4.86	17.4%	3.4%	53	+0.60	3.48	362	82
Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	81
Doug Nikhazy L 2027 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.8%	19.9%	2.0%	.270	4.85	21.2%	7.8%	312	-0.03	4.20	458	81
Max Fried L 2027 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	19.5%	13.0%	3.3%	.301	3.79	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.56	1,397	81
Dalton Rogers L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	81
Dylan Carmouche L 2027 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	19.0%	11.6%	2.6%	.332	4.42	17.4%	9.6%	70	+0.05	4.37	192	80
Connor O'Halloran L 2026 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	17.2%	12.3%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.02	104	80
Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	79
Brandon Knarr L 2028 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	79
Xavier Rivas L 2028 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	23.2%	16.4%	3.0%	.229	5.34	28.7%	15.4%	64	+0.47	4.87	150	78
Jairo Labourt L 2026 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP	4.65	15.0%	12.7%	2.2%	.330	4.14	19.0%	2.1%	154	-0.51	3.42	270	77
Mavis Graves L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP	4.31	21.3%	15.8%	1.8%	.321	5.77	26.2%	12.7%	54	+1.46	3.05	254	77
Frank Mozzicato L 2026 · 5.41 FIP	21	SP	5.41	16.4%	16.7%	2.9%	.238	6.44	17.2%	-3.1%	141	+1.03	4.87	405	77
Kyle Carr L 2027 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.14	18.8%	7.6%	200	-0.08	4.01	304	77
John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	77
Lucas Gordon L 2027 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP	6.15	16.3%	15.7%	4.4%	.212	5.18	20.6%	9.1%	195	-0.97	4.60	308	77
Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	17.5%	13.9%	3.4%	.324	3.93	17.1%	6.8%	182	-1.32	3.47	273	76
Tyler Schweitzer L 2027 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.293	4.22	17.9%	9.5%	274	-0.44	3.87	381	76
Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	146	23.5%	11.5%	1.18	4.66
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98