Alex Clemmey — OGILVIE

Alex Clemmey P Harrisburg Senators

Age 21 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION128 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%21.3%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4055

CTRL—40

CMD4050

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	23.3%	19.0%	4.3%	1.2%	4.58	4.22	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	23.3%	19.0%	4.3%	1.2%	4.58	4.22	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	31.5%	16.1%	15.3%	1.0%	4.58	3.05	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	3.0%	3.47	5.06	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	3.0%	3.47	5.06	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	26.8%	14.4%	12.4%	2.4%	3.47	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	19.7%	15.1%	4.6%	3.8%	4.64	5.44	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	19.7%	15.1%	4.6%	3.8%	4.64	5.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	AA RAW	WSH	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	24.3%	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.64	4.53	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	11	45	10	8	1	100%	5.3	21.3%	17.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.53	5.53	-0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	139	612	148	86	19	—	—	24.1%	14.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.71	5.45	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	144	606	136	88	18	100%	5.1	22.5%	14.4%	8.0%	3.0%	5.18	5.04	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	149	629	146	80	18	100%	5.3	23.2%	12.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.73	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	153	644	153	74	19	100%	5.7	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.53	+0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	154	652	157	70	19	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.40	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	154	652	158	70	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	152	643	156	69	19	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.41	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	148	623	150	68	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.50	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	141	595	142	66	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.57	4.63	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	132	559	131	64	19	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.4%	4.71	4.81	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	522	120	62	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	114	483	109	59	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.9%	5.10	5.23	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	72	304	68	44	9	100%	5.1	22.5%	14.4%	8.0%	3.0%	5.18	5.04	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	109	460	107	58	13	100%	5.5	23.2%	12.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.73	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	127	536	127	62	16	100%	5.5	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.53	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	139	62	17	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.40	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	141	595	144	64	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	141	595	144	64	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.41	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	138	583	140	64	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.50	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	134	566	135	63	18	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.57	4.63	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	126	532	125	61	18	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.4%	4.71	4.81	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	117	494	114	58	18	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	104	56	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.9%	5.10	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	232	1351	5705	1347	656	179	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.28	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	97	26	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		78	75	337	1466	308	243	42	96%	4.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.98	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	870	183	144	25	96%	4.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.98	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Clemmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	21.3%	17.2%	3.0%	—	4.76	23.1%	10.3%	445	-0.77	—	—	—
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.78	20.6%	8.1%	312	-0.21	4.16	461	83
Tyler Pike L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	21	SP	5.50	15.6%	14.3%	3.5%	.290	4.52	19.4%	2.7%	301	-0.98	3.41	565	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	79
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	79
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	76
Jairo Labourt L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SP	4.63	15.0%	12.7%	2.1%	.330	4.22	19.0%	2.1%	154	-0.41	3.53	270	75
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	75
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	75
Génesis Cabrera L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP	4.38	20.2%	13.3%	2.4%	.284	4.29	24.0%	13.0%	212	-0.09	2.44	872	74
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	74
Connor Bach L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SP-	4.48	16.4%	17.0%	1.1%	.304	5.82	18.5%	-9.3%	14	+1.34	4.48	124	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
DJ Herz L 2022 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP	4.57	26.4%	18.9%	2.4%	.246	3.71	26.0%	12.7%	222	-0.86	3.54	423	71
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	71
Maddux Bruns L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	21	SP	4.67	22.3%	18.0%	2.1%	.261	4.55	18.6%	-1.9%	93	-0.12	3.50	235	71
Helcris Olivárez L 2021 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	19.0%	17.3%	2.3%	.300	5.49	21.9%	-8.9%	38	+0.56	2.92	298	71
Brendon Little L 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SP	4.70	14.7%	11.2%	2.6%	.313	3.83	21.0%	8.9%	90	-0.87	2.63	503	71
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	142	23.4%	12.1%	1.20	4.76
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68