Alex Clemmey

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#308ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	AWSH	25	25	92	4.58	3.05	31.5%	16.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.22
2025	20	MIX2 levels	25	25	117	3.47	3.98	26.8%	14.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 16.4% · FIP 5.06
2026	21	AAWSH	28	25	128	4.64	4.60	24.3%	13.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 15.1% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	22	MLBWSH	1	1	3	5.61	5.61	20.4%	16.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBWSH	14	14	74	5.29	5.16	21.6%	13.7%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBWSH	19	19	104	5.02	4.88	22.4%	12.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 74%

CompsTyler Pike (age 22) · Max Fried (age 22) · Doug Nikhazy (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123132vR 140

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%20.4%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP148

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	23.3%	19.0%	4.3%	1.2%	4.58	4.22	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	23.3%	19.0%	4.3%	1.2%	4.58	4.22	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	25	25	92	391	123	63	4	100%	3.7	31.5%	16.1%	15.3%	1.0%	4.58	3.05	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	3.0%	3.47	5.06	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	3.0%	3.47	5.06	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	117	508	136	73	12	100%	4.7	26.8%	14.4%	12.4%	2.4%	3.47	3.98	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	19.7%	15.1%	4.6%	3.8%	4.64	5.44	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	19.7%	15.1%	4.6%	3.8%	4.64	5.44	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	28	25	128	567	138	78	18	89%	4.6	24.3%	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.64	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	WSH	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	20.4%	16.0%	4.4%	3.3%	5.61	5.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	148	625	135	85	20	100%	5.3	21.6%	13.7%	8.0%	3.2%	5.29	5.16	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	148	625	140	76	20	100%	5.7	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	3.2%	5.02	4.88	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	107	453	103	51	14	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.72	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	106	449	103	50	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.68	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	104	437	100	49	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	99	417	95	47	14	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.80	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	92	388	87	45	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.5%	4.87	4.93	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	353	78	42	13	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	3.7%	5.02	5.11	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	74	312	68	43	10	100%	5.3	21.6%	13.7%	8.0%	3.2%	5.29	5.16	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	104	439	98	53	14	100%	5.5	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	3.2%	5.02	4.88	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	87	367	84	41	12	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.72	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	90	43	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.68	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	94	397	91	44	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	91	384	88	43	13	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.80	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	86	363	82	42	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.5%	4.87	4.93	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	73	39	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	3.7%	5.02	5.11	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	707	2986	673	348	98	100%	5.8	22.5%	11.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.90	4.48	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	98	28	100%	5.8	22.5%	11.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.90	4.48	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		78	75	337	1466	308	243	42	96%	4.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.98	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	870	183	144	25	96%	4.3	21.0%	16.6%	4.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.98	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 128 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.44 (+0.91)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.34%	—	×0.810	19.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.76%	—	×1.100	15.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 87 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.22 (+1.05)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.97%	—	×0.770	23.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.92%	—	×1.150	18.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 29 IPFIP 6.23 → 7.46 (+1.23)K% 17.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.56%	—	×0.810	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.100	10.92%
HR / BF /BF	6.11%	÷0.963	×1.200	7.61%

Result: FIP 6.23 → 7.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 92 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.22 (+1.17)K% 31.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.46%	—	×0.740	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.11%	—	×1.180	19.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷1.078	×1.300	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Clemmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.94	22.2%	9.8%	403	-0.67	—	—	—
Tyler Pike L 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	19.5%	14.8%	2.7%	.278	4.33	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.46	3.41	565	85
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	79
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	79
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	79
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	79
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	77
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	76
Kodi Medeiros L 2018 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP-	4.51	19.1%	12.0%	2.8%	.286	5.45	17.7%	2.3%	112	+0.94	3.13	568	75
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.19	16.8%	8.7%	321	-0.31	4.12	428	75
Frank Mozzicato L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	21	SP	5.34	16.4%	16.7%	2.8%	.238	6.33	18.8%	-2.2%	165	+0.99	5.00	428	74
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	74
Jordan Guerrero L 2016 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP	5.13	14.7%	13.5%	2.9%	.298	4.09	17.3%	8.4%	350	-1.04	3.05	635	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	73
Luis Lugo L 2016 · 4.68 FIP	22	SP	4.68	15.2%	10.5%	2.8%	.299	4.96	15.7%	5.5%	265	+0.28	4.29	622	73
Jagger Haynes L 2024 · 5.30 FIP	21	SP	5.30	18.5%	16.0%	3.2%	.278	4.83	17.3%	4.5%	238	-0.47	4.25	374	73
Spencer Giesting L 2023 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	18.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.285	4.06	20.1%	10.8%	330	-0.72	3.58	460	72
Connor Bach L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SP-	4.48	16.4%	17.0%	1.1%	.304	5.82	18.5%	-9.3%	14	+1.34	4.48	124	72
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	115	22.2%	12.4%	1.27	5.03
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Mike Norris ('75-'90, 8 WAR*)	5.6	125	21.2%*	10.4%*	1.18*	4.40*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45