Alex Clemmey
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.3
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.4 · 2030
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%8.3%
IP117
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 25 | 25 | 92 | 391 | 123 | 63 | 4 | 23.3% | 19.0% | 1.2% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 25 | 25 | 117 | 508 | 136 | 73 | 12 | 20.8% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 3 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 107 | 67 | 15 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 126 | 535 | 120 | 76 | 16 | 22.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 139 | 72 | 18 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 168 | 76 | 21 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 35 | 190 | 803 | 192 | 79 | 23 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.31 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 35 | 192 | 813 | 197 | 77 | 24 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 35 | 192 | 813 | 198 | 77 | 24 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 35 | 35 | 191 | 807 | 197 | 76 | 23 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 34 | 188 | 795 | 194 | 75 | 23 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +2.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 33 | 33 | 184 | 777 | 188 | 74 | 23 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +2.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 32 | 32 | 178 | 754 | 181 | 73 | 23 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +1.9 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 31 | 172 | 727 | 173 | 71 | 23 | 23.8% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.7 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 165 | 698 | 164 | 69 | 22 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 158 | 667 | 155 | 68 | 22 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 145 | 65 | 21 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 53 | 218 | 941 | 210 | 167 | 21 | 22.3% | 17.7% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.69 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 49 | 200 | 863 | 193 | 153 | 19 | 22.3% | 17.7% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Clemmey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 504 | -0.55 | — | — | — |
| Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 91 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 90 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 88 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 87 |
| Max Fried L 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 87 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 87 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.38 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.01 | 4.37 | 192 | 87 |
| Jackson Ferris L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 309 | 86 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 86 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 85 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 85 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 85 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 85 |
| Sam Garcia L 2028 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 85 |
| John Beller L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 85 |
| Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.06 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 2.8% | 193 | +0.55 | 4.02 | 301 | 85 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.28 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | .327 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 6.3% | 188 | -0.50 | 3.48 | 284 | 84 |
| Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 84 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2028 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 84 |
| Luis Rico L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.2% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.99 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 105 | +0.48 | 4.26 | 199 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.4 | $23M | +$18M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.3 | $23M | +$15M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.1 | $21M | +$10M |
| Totals | $26M | $129M | +$103M | ||