Jagger Haynes — OGILVIE

Jagger Haynes P San Antonio Missions

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.72

FIP5.72

K%18.6%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	11	25	109	29	12	2	100%	2.3	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.1%	3.91	4.25	—
2023	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	11	25	109	29	12	2	100%	2.3	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.1%	3.91	4.25	—
2023	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	11	25	109	29	12	2	100%	2.3	26.6%	11.0%	15.6%	1.8%	3.91	3.26	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	3.2%	4.64	5.30	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	3.2%	4.64	5.30	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	24.0%	13.9%	10.1%	2.3%	4.64	4.12	—
2025	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	18.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.4%	4.11	5.37	—
2025	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	18.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.4%	4.11	5.37	—
2025	22	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	26	129	561	113	60	12	96%	4.8	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	2.5%	4.95	4.50	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	26	129	561	113	60	12	96%	4.8	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	2.5%	4.95	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	SD	18	18	95	401	85	41	9	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	2.2%	4.37	3.84	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	SD	9	8	34	160	28	19	3	89%	3.8	17.5%	11.9%	5.6%	1.9%	6.55	4.16	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	12	50	9	8	2	100%	5.9	18.6%	16.4%	2.2%	3.1%	5.72	5.72	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	141	611	122	68	14	—	—	20.0%	11.2%	8.9%	2.2%	5.02	4.60	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	24	24	134	566	112	81	18	100%	5.6	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.1%	5.42	5.32	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	136	573	118	74	18	100%	5.9	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.19	5.08	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	136	573	120	73	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.07	5.01	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	134	565	118	71	18	100%	6.1	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.1%	5.04	5.03	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	130	548	114	70	18	100%	5.9	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	3.2%	5.08	5.11	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	124	523	108	68	18	100%	5.9	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	3.4%	5.18	5.24	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	116	492	99	66	18	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	3.6%	5.33	5.42	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	59	249	49	36	8	100%	5.4	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.2%	5.46	5.36	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	91	384	79	50	12	100%	5.7	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.23	5.12	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	95	58	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	3.2%	5.11	5.05	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	114	481	101	61	15	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.2%	5.08	5.07	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	116	490	102	63	16	100%	6.1	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	3.3%	5.12	5.15	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	113	477	98	62	17	100%	5.9	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	3.5%	5.23	5.29	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	107	452	91	60	17	100%	5.9	20.2%	13.3%	6.9%	3.7%	5.38	5.47	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	119	708	2988	615	389	99	100%	5.9	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.21	4.83	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	110	28	100%	5.9	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.21	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		87	84	368	1588	283	220	47	97%	4.2	17.8%	13.9%	3.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.96	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	46	200	863	154	120	25	97%	4.2	17.8%	13.9%	3.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jagger Haynes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.72	18.6%	16.4%	3.1%	—	5.14	20.4%	7.1%	405	-0.58	—	—	—
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	84
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	82
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	82
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	81
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	79
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	78
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78
Eddie Campbell L 2015 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	13.5%	10.7%	3.2%	.315	6.31	13.7%	-3.8%	140	+1.26	5.05	250	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	74
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	74
Spencer Giesting L 2023 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	18.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.285	4.08	19.8%	10.4%	326	-0.70	3.58	457	74
Rylan Kaufman L 2022 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.5%	13.4%	3.0%	.319	4.01	21.9%	0.1%	17	-0.85	4.01	212	73
Luis González L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	12.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.386	3.32	24.1%	14.7%	164	-1.56	3.15	416	73
Trey Ball L 2017 · 5.19 FIP	23	SP	5.19	14.7%	11.0%	3.5%	.367	5.00	14.4%	5.3%	65	-0.19	5.00	437	73
Sam Hentges L 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	17.4%	12.0%	2.6%	.354	3.31	25.2%	16.4%	131	-1.27	2.22	609	72
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	71
Luis Lugo L 2017 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	12.8%	10.3%	3.9%	.288	4.47	18.6%	8.6%	131	-0.97	4.29	622	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
JoJo Romero L 2019 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	15.5%	9.8%	2.9%	.328	5.49	25.4%	10.5%	16	+0.89	2.64	589	71
Jesse Biddle L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	12.9%	11.4%	2.3%	.329	3.45	23.1%	13.9%	113	-1.29	3.35	311	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	130	20.3%	13.5%	1.24	5.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58