Jagger Haynes
P
San Antonio Missions
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2029
ERA5.20
FIP5.20
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%6.8%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 11 | 11 | 25 | 109 | 29 | 12 | 2 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 23 | 22 | 111 | 475 | 114 | 66 | 11 | 18.5% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 25 | 103 | 443 | 101 | 62 | 12 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 2 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 88 | 58 | 14 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 110 | 465 | 94 | 62 | 15 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.29 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 108 | 61 | 16 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 123 | 62 | 18 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 130 | 64 | 19 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 133 | 65 | 19 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 133 | 65 | 19 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 142 | 597 | 129 | 64 | 19 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 124 | 63 | 19 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 118 | 61 | 19 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 112 | 60 | 18 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 105 | 58 | 18 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 98 | 56 | 17 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 91 | 54 | 17 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 83 | 51 | 16 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 60 | 246 | 1057 | 197 | 162 | 34 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 5.21 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 49 | 200 | 861 | 160 | 132 | 28 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 5.21 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jagger Haynes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.77 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 399 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 94 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 93 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 92 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 91 |
| Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.43 | 21.9% | 16.9% | 3.7% | .304 | 4.60 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 210 | -0.83 | 4.25 | 414 | 87 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 87 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.21 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .299 | 5.17 | 20.3% | 1.7% | 53 | -0.04 | 3.45 | 325 | 86 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 86 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 86 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 85 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .316 | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.22 | 2.86 | 305 | 84 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 84 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 84 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.87 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 332 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 83 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 3.3% | .412 | 4.48 | 18.3% | 4.3% | 208 | -0.36 | 3.78 | 378 | 83 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 83 |
| Mason Green L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .329 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 5.1% | 252 | +0.44 | 3.72 | 364 | 82 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $38M | +$30M | ||