Jagger Haynes

P San Antonio Missions

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#780ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+SD	23	22	111	4.64	4.12	24.0%	13.9%	—	K 18.5% · BB 16.0% · FIP 5.30
2025	22	AASD	26	25	103	4.11	4.46	22.8%	14.0%	—	K 18.5% · BB 15.4% · FIP 5.37
2026	23	MIX2 levels	28	27	135	4.80	3.89	19.9%	10.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	1	1	3	5.30	5.30	16.8%	13.5%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSD	9	9	52	5.13	5.06	18.4%	12.3%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSD	12	12	71	4.99	4.94	19.3%	11.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Arb-2$0.4M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsDylan Carmouche (age 22) · Darin Gorski (age 27) · Cameron Bishop (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%16.8%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	11	25	109	29	12	2	100%	2.3	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.1%	3.91	4.25	—
2023	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	11	11	25	109	29	12	2	100%	2.3	26.6%	11.0%	15.6%	1.8%	3.91	3.26	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	3.2%	4.64	5.30	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	3.2%	4.64	5.30	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	23	22	111	475	114	66	11	96%	4.8	24.0%	13.9%	10.1%	2.3%	4.64	4.12	—
2025	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	18.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.4%	4.11	5.37	—
2025	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	18.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.4%	4.11	5.37	—
2025	22	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	26	25	103	443	101	62	12	96%	4.0	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	135	583	116	61	12	96%	4.8	16.4%	10.8%	5.6%	2.4%	4.80	4.42	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	135	583	116	61	12	96%	4.8	16.4%	10.8%	5.6%	2.4%	4.80	4.42	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	135	583	116	61	12	96%	4.8	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.1%	4.80	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	16.8%	13.5%	3.4%	2.8%	5.30	5.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	118	500	92	61	14	100%	5.9	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	2.8%	5.09	5.02	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	450	87	53	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.90	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	100	423	82	50	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.8%	7.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.91	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	95	399	77	47	12	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	88	371	71	45	12	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	80	338	63	42	11	100%	6.2	18.8%	12.3%	6.4%	3.3%	5.19	5.28	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	40	27	6	100%	5.8	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	2.9%	5.13	5.06	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	71	300	58	36	9	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.94	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	78	329	64	39	10	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.8%	7.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.95	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	80	338	65	40	10	100%	6.2	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.1%	4.98	5.02	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	62	39	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.2%	5.08	5.15	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	72	304	57	37	10	100%	6.0	18.8%	12.3%	6.4%	3.4%	5.24	5.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	430	1814	346	217	56	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	5.06	4.69	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	101	26	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	5.06	4.69	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		88	85	374	1610	287	221	47	97%	4.2	17.8%	13.7%	4.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.93	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	45	200	861	153	118	25	97%	4.2	17.8%	13.7%	4.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.93	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 95 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.55 (+0.72)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.810	17.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.22%	—	×1.100	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 40 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.11 (+0.15)K% 17.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.03%	—	×0.860	14.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×0.900	9.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 103 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.37 (+0.93)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.80%	—	×0.810	18.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.100	15.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷0.950	×1.200	3.42%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 111 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.30 (+1.19)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.150	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷0.916	×1.250	3.16%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 25 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.25 (+1.00)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.61%	—	×0.740	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.180	12.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.121	×1.300	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jagger Haynes (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.95	19.0%	7.0%	325	-0.35	—	—	—
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	81
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	80
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	80
Jared Shuster L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP	5.01	14.5%	11.3%	3.1%	.306	4.63	17.0%	8.9%	200	-0.38	3.90	544	80
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	79
Cody Dickson L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP	4.85	13.9%	16.4%	1.5%	.292	5.48	15.9%	1.3%	72	+0.63	3.88	354	79
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	79
Damian Moss L 2002 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	14.9%	11.3%	2.7%	.227	5.40	10.4%	-1.0%	166	+0.65	4.75	345	78
Kyle Carr L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.47	18.6%	7.1%	223	+0.23	4.19	327	78
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	78
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	77
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	76
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	76
Brandon Williamson L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	24	SP	4.36	18.6%	15.0%	1.7%	.304	4.76	18.7%	10.0%	165	+0.40	3.62	454	75
Matt Chico L 2007 · 5.15 FIP	24	SP	5.15	12.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.282	5.34	14.2%	6.9%	48	+0.19	5.15	215	75
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	75
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	75
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	75
Jesse Biddle L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	12.9%	11.4%	2.3%	.329	3.45	23.1%	13.9%	113	-1.29	3.35	311	75
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	18.6%	12.3%	1.13	5.08
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Rich Gale ('78-'84, 3 WAR*)	4.9	139	18.9%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.94*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*