Jared Shuster
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%15.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.7 (20%)
CT (17%)
FB (42%)
SI (13%)
CH (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 73 | 303 | 90 | 20 | 15 | 94% | 4.1 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 8.4% | 4.44 | 6.71 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 73 | 303 | 90 | 20 | 15 | 94% | 4.1 | 29.7% | 6.6% | 23.1% | 5.0% | 4.44 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 139 | 554 | 145 | 38 | 18 | 93% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 3.29 | 4.45 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 139 | 554 | 145 | 38 | 18 | 93% | 5.2 | 26.2% | 6.9% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 132 | 587 | 94 | 71 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.7% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 132 | 587 | 94 | 71 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.33 | 4.97 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 7 | 86 | 376 | 65 | 36 | 13 | 17% | 2.0 | 17.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 7 | 86 | 376 | 65 | 36 | 13 | 17% | 2.0 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 51 | 250 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 5% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 7.28 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 51 | 250 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 5% | 1.3 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 7.28 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 23 | 1 | 37 | 188 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 4% | 1.6 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.84 | 6.04 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 83 | 382 | 59 | 38 | 14 | — | — | 15.4% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.53 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 55 | 232 | 59 | 38 | 14 | — | — | 25.4% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 9.81 | 6.30 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 33 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 27 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 31 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 28 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 248 | 17 | 341 | 1480 | 216 | 150 | 41 | 7% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 4.67 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 10 | 200 | 868 | 127 | 88 | 24 | 7% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 175 | 79 | 517 | 2258 | 406 | 210 | 94 | 45% | 3.0 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 5.05 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 31 | 200 | 873 | 157 | 81 | 36 | 45% | 3.0 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Shuster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.27 | 13.9% | 3.4% | 152 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 73 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 67 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 65 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.30 | 11.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .381 | 3.63 | 17.1% | 11.8% | 49 | -1.67 | 3.63 | 322 | 65 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 64 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 64 |
| Colten Schmidt L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 163 | 64 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 64 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 64 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .295 | 7.18 | 11.4% | -3.7% | 38 | +2.94 | 3.39 | 261 | 63 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.49 | 11.2% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .295 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 72 | -0.02 | 4.44 | 188 | 63 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.02 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 5.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 371 | 63 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 63 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.06 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 145 | 63 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .418 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 153 | 63 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 63 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 62 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.16 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 522 | 62 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 14.3% | 10.3% | 1.14 | 5.13 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |