Jared Shuster
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.95
FIP4.69
xFIP6.11
SIERA6.12
K%17.1%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.2%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†3030
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p1014.6%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
SL+0.7 (26%)
CT (10%)
FB (47%)
SI (9%)
CH (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 18 | 17 | 73 | 303 | 90 | 20 | 15 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.44 | 6.20 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 27 | 25 | 139 | 554 | 145 | 38 | 18 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.29 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 27 | 27 | 132 | 587 | 94 | 71 | 17 | 14.7% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 42 | 7 | 86 | 376 | 65 | 36 | 13 | 17.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 38 | 2 | 51 | 250 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 7.28 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 47 | 200 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 14.7% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 24 | 17 | 5 | 14.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 13.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 12.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 5.42 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 12.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.55 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | STL | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 11.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.69 | 5.78 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 10.6% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.84 | 5.95 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 78 | 487 | 2100 | 382 | 193 | 82 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.73 | 4.86 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 32 | 200 | 862 | 157 | 79 | 34 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.73 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Shuster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.06 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 127 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.01 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.68 | 3.70 | 110 | 76 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 75 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 4.3% | .260 | 5.70 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.20 | 3.60 | 132 | 74 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.36 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .289 | 5.80 | 19.8% | 2.0% | 40 | +1.44 | 3.98 | 118 | 74 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .253 | 2.66 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.50 | 2.22 | 459 | 74 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 73 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Juan Martinez L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.80 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 273 | 73 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 72 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 72 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 72 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 72 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 72 |
| Justin Thomas L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 13.1% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 105 | 72 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .355 | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.09 | 3.77 | 188 | 71 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 71 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 71 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.53 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 106 | 71 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .330 | 3.94 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -0.72 | 3.79 | 412 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.