Jared Shuster — OGILVIE

Jared Shuster P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%15.5%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

SL+0.7 (20%)

CT (17%)

FB (42%)

SI (13%)

CH (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	73	303	90	20	15	94%	4.1	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	7.1%	4.44	5.98	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	73	303	90	20	15	94%	4.1	29.7%	6.6%	23.1%	5.0%	4.44	4.13	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	139	554	145	38	18	93%	5.2	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	3.9%	3.29	4.34	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	139	554	145	38	18	93%	5.2	26.2%	6.9%	19.3%	3.2%	3.29	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	132	587	94	71	17	100%	4.9	14.2%	11.3%	2.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.04	-0.2
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	132	587	94	71	17	100%	4.9	14.2%	11.3%	2.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.04	-0.2
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	132	587	94	71	17	100%	4.9	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.33	4.97	-0.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.80	-0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.80	-0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.81	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	14.1%	6.2%	7.9%	2.2%	7.28	3.92	+0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	14.1%	6.2%	7.9%	2.2%	7.28	3.92	+0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	16.0%	6.8%	9.2%	2.4%	7.28	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	17	151	677	102	67	17	25%	2.2	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	2.5%	5.50	4.55	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	39	3	67	316	62	30	13	8%	1.7	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	4.9%	6.55	5.32	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	39	3	67	316	62	30	13	8%	1.7	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	4.9%	6.55	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	STL	34	3	58	272	58	25	12	9%	1.7	21.3%	9.2%	12.1%	4.4%	6.17	4.89	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	STL	5	0	9	44	4	5	1	0%	1.8	9.1%	11.4%	-2.3%	2.3%	9.00	5.02	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	STL	5	0	9	44	4	5	1	0%	1.8	9.1%	11.4%	-2.3%	2.3%	9.00	5.02	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	STL	4	0	5	20	3	2	1	0%	1.2	15.5%	9.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	STL	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.5%	9.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	72	336	65	32	14	—	—	19.4%	9.5%	9.9%	4.0%	6.42	5.27	-0.5
FULL	27	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	14	58	65	32	14	—	—	113.0%	55.3%	57.8%	23.6%	33.91	13.50	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	STL	51	0	53	225	32	22	7	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.07	5.10	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	48	0	51	215	29	21	7	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.0%	3.7%	3.0%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	STL	49	0	51	215	31	21	6	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.07	5.10	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	46	0	48	203	28	20	6	0%	1.0	13.7%	10.0%	3.7%	3.0%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	17	254	1114	163	110	30	10%	1.5	14.7%	9.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.34	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		130	13	200	877	128	87	24	10%	1.5	14.7%	9.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.34	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		191	81	548	2386	428	208	95	42%	2.9	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	4.0%	4.91	4.88	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	30	200	871	156	76	35	42%	2.9	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	4.0%	4.91	4.88	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Shuster (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	—	5.18	14.0%	4.1%	104	+0.23	—	—	—
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	74
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	68
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	67
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	67
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	66
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	66
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	65
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	65
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	64
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	64
Kyle Hunter L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	11.2%	9.9%	1.9%	.295	4.50	14.0%	7.9%	72	+0.02	4.32	188	64
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	64
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	64
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	64
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	63
Nick Routt L 2017 · 4.86 FIP	26	SU	4.86	11.7%	8.5%	3.0%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	195	63
Juan Martinez L 2019 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	14.4%	9.2%	3.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	273	63
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	62
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	62
Chris Cotton L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	9.7%	6.4%	2.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	128	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	14.4%	9.7%	1.13	5.07
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43