Jared Shuster

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	42	7	86	4.60	4.81	17.3%	9.6%	-0.3	K 17.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.79
2025	26	MIX2 levels	38	2	51	7.28	4.07	16.0%	6.8%	0.3	K 14.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.90
2026	27	MIX2 levels	42	3	73	6.07	4.79	20.4%	9.0%	-0.2	K 19.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	28	MLBSTL	62	0	65	4.87	4.97	16.8%	8.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSTL	44	0	46	5.03	5.13	16.2%	8.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSTL	35	0	37	5.21	5.34	15.5%	9.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command35FB velo40

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Everett Teaford (age 28) · Randy Keisler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.87

FIP4.97

K%16.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	73	303	90	20	15	94%	4.1	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	7.1%	4.44	5.98	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	73	303	90	20	15	94%	4.1	29.7%	6.6%	23.1%	5.0%	4.44	4.13	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	139	554	145	38	18	93%	5.2	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	3.9%	3.29	4.34	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	139	554	145	38	18	93%	5.2	26.2%	6.9%	19.3%	3.2%	3.29	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	132	587	94	71	17	100%	4.9	14.5%	11.3%	3.2%	3.1%	5.33	5.01	+0.6
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	132	587	94	71	17	100%	4.9	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.33	4.97	+0.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	3.5%	4.60	4.79	-0.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	3.5%	4.60	4.79	-0.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	7	86	376	65	36	13	17%	2.0	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.81	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	14.4%	6.2%	8.2%	2.2%	7.28	3.90	+0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	14.4%	6.2%	8.2%	2.2%	7.28	3.90	+0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	51	250	40	17	6	5%	1.3	16.0%	6.8%	9.2%	2.4%	7.28	4.07	+0.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	73	334	68	30	13	7%	1.7	19.0%	7.8%	11.2%	4.6%	6.07	4.98	-0.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	73	334	68	30	13	7%	1.7	19.0%	7.8%	11.2%	4.6%	6.07	4.98	-0.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	73	334	68	30	13	7%	1.7	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	3.9%	6.07	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			67	17	151	677	102	67	17	25%	2.2	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	2.5%	5.50	4.55	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	STL	62	0	65	274	46	24	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	8.7%	8.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	46	0	48	202	33	18	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	STL	37	0	39	164	25	15	6	0%	1.0	15.5%	9.2%	6.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.34	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	44	0	46	194	32	17	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	STL	35	0	37	156	24	14	6	0%	1.1	15.5%	9.2%	6.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	17	233	1025	157	98	29	12%	1.6	15.4%	9.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.36	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		125	15	200	880	135	84	25	12%	1.6	15.4%	9.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.36	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		194	81	553	2404	438	207	95	42%	2.9	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.83	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	29	200	869	158	75	34	42%	2.9	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.83	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 64 IPFIP 4.60 → 4.98 (+0.38)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.07%	—	×0.860	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×0.900	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	4.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.60 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 35 IPFIP 4.71 → 4.66 (−0.05)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.183	×1.100	3.32%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 13 IPFIP 6.40 → 6.86 (+0.46)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.36%	—	×0.860	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×0.900	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	7.27%	÷1.016	×1.100	7.88%

Result: FIP 6.40 → 6.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 79 IPFIP 4.72 → 4.95 (+0.23)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.93%	—	×0.860	15.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.61%	—	×0.900	11.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷0.984	×1.100	3.13%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 91 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.52 (+0.93)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.03%	—	×0.810	24.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.23%	—	×1.100	6.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.927	×1.200	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 49 IPFIP 5.20 → 5.78 (+0.58)K% 19.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.40%	—	×0.880	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.96%	—	×1.050	8.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.98%	÷0.981	×1.100	5.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 5.20 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Rome Braves · 58 IPFIP 3.62 → 5.39 (+1.77)K% 31.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.06%	—	×0.770	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.150	7.34%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.864	×1.250	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 15 IPFIP 5.96 → 8.04 (+2.08)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.100	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	7.35%	÷0.861	×1.200	10.25%

Result: FIP 5.96 → 8.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Shuster (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	16.8%	8.7%	3.3%	—	5.22	15.9%	6.9%	87	+0.25	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	75
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	67
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	67
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	66
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	65
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	64
David Huff L 2013 · 4.42 FIP	28	SU	4.42	20.5%	5.3%	4.3%	.248	3.76	17.1%	11.5%	169	-0.66	3.40	540	63
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	63
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	62
Andrew Lorraine L 2000 · 4.98 FIP	27	SW	4.98	15.9%	11.6%	3.2%	.290	8.88	15.4%	6.2%	12	+3.90	4.11	163	62
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	62
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	62
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	61
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	61
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	61
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	61
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	15.7%	9.6%	1.15	5.25
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Manny Aybar ('05)	2.0	65	15.6%	9.8%	1.13	5.11
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Paul Mirabella ('78-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.5	71	17.2%*	10.7%*	0.95*	4.64*