Colten Schmidt
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 30
LHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%22.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 135 | 578 | 128 | 24 | 10 | 96% | 5.6 | 16.5% | 4.8% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 135 | 578 | 128 | 24 | 10 | 96% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 4.2% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 3.47 | 2.70 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 5 | 33 | 155 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 36% | 2.4 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.73 | 5.14 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 5 | 33 | 155 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 36% | 2.4 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 4.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | COL | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 28 | 168 | 733 | 118 | 40 | 15 | 74% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.55 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 33 | 200 | 873 | 140 | 48 | 18 | 74% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colten Schmidt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 20 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 70 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 68 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 65 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 65 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 64 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 64 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 62 |
| Jeff Locke L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 62 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 61 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 60 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 60 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 108 | 60 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 59 |
| Darin Gorski L 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 59 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 59 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 59 |
| Misael Siverio L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 58 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.28 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .367 | 4.16 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | -0.12 | 3.97 | 280 | 58 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 58 |