Spencer Giesting
P
Reno Aces
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%8.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 9 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.1% | 7.04 | 5.70 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 24 | 117 | 523 | 124 | 71 | 9 | 18.3% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 141 | 588 | 154 | 44 | 12 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.56 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 27 | 27 | 136 | 615 | 131 | 64 | 18 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 99 | 54 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 123 | 518 | 101 | 54 | 16 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 108 | 55 | 16 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 112 | 56 | 17 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 112 | 55 | 17 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 109 | 54 | 17 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 105 | 53 | 17 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 100 | 52 | 16 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 95 | 51 | 16 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 89 | 49 | 16 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 83 | 48 | 15 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 77 | 46 | 15 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 70 | 44 | 14 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 80 | 412 | 1805 | 345 | 210 | 48 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 876 | 167 | 102 | 23 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Giesting (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.72 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 387 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 89 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 88 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 88 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 86 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 86 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 85 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 85 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 85 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 85 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 84 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 84 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 84 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 83 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 83 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 83 |
| Jackson Kent L 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 83 |
| Felix Doubront L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 83 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 82 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $8M | $19M | +$12M | ||