Spencer Giesting

P Reno Aces

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#500ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	141	3.31	2.96	26.2%	7.5%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.58
2025	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	136	5.31	4.31	21.3%	10.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.64
2026	25	MIX2 levels	35	1	56	4.50	3.26	29.5%	10.6%	—	K 24.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	3	3	16	4.63	4.63	20.5%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBARI	9	9	56	4.53	4.54	20.6%	9.6%	0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBARI	12	12	73	4.55	4.59	20.6%	9.6%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsBrian Burres (age 26) · Ken Waldichuk (age 25) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP161

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	20.8%	16.6%	4.2%	4.3%	7.04	5.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	4.4%	7.04	5.12	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	18.3%	15.6%	2.6%	2.3%	4.00	4.78	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	23.7%	13.6%	10.1%	1.7%	4.00	3.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.0%	3.31	2.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.64	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.64	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	2.9%	5.31	4.31	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	2.7%	4.50	3.83	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	2.7%	4.50	3.83	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	29.5%	10.6%	18.9%	2.4%	4.50	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	3	3	16	68	14	7	2	100%	5.3	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	131	554	114	53	17	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	+1.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	491	101	47	15	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.69	+0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	106	447	91	44	15	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	96	404	81	40	14	100%	6.4	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	+0.5
2032	31	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	360	71	37	13	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.16	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	56	236	49	23	7	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.54	+0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	73	308	64	30	9	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	77	325	66	32	10	100%	6.4	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	76	321	65	32	11	100%	6.3	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.85	+0.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	60	31	11	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.5%	4.93	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	354	1495	303	148	47	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.69	4.38	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	171	84	27	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.69	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		120	81	465	2048	403	229	54	68%	3.9	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.31	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	880	173	98	23	68%	3.9	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.31	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 53 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.83 (+0.33)K% 28.2% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.860	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×0.900	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 79 IPFIP 4.76 → 5.22 (+0.46)K% 19.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.860	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.06%	—	×0.900	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷0.904	×1.100	3.91%

Result: FIP 4.76 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 56 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.75 (+0.35)K% 24.4% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.38%	—	×0.810	19.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.85%	—	×1.100	8.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 81 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.15 (+0.47)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.810	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.73%	—	×1.100	9.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.229	×1.200	2.75%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 60 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.72 (+0.87)K% 28.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.76%	—	×0.770	22.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.58%	—	×1.150	6.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.875	×1.250	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 117 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.78 (+1.01)K% 23.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.71%	—	×0.770	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.58%	—	×1.150	15.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.952	×1.250	2.26%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 13 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.80 (+1.37)K% 28.1% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.740	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.04%	—	×1.180	16.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.062	×1.300	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Giesting (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.70	20.6%	10.9%	353	+0.07	—	—	—
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	79
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	78
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	76
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	72
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	71
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	70
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	70
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	70
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	69
Alex Cornwell L 2024 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	18.6%	9.9%	1.9%	.355	4.57	14.4%	4.8%	93	+0.75	3.16	381	68
Frank Garces L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.317	4.84	15.0%	7.1%	132	+0.52	4.32	306	68
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	68
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	67
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	67
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	116	20.4%	9.8%	1.25	4.73
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Brian Kingman ('79-'83, 3 WAR*)	2.8	138	18.4%*	8.6%*	1.10*	4.62*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*