Spencer Giesting
P
Reno Aces
Age 25
LHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 161 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114123vR 133
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%18.2%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP161
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 190 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 44% | 1.7 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.04 | 5.67 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 44% | 1.7 | 27.9% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 7.04 | 5.12 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 24 | 117 | 523 | 124 | 71 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.3% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 24 | 24 | 117 | 523 | 124 | 71 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 4.00 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 141 | 588 | 154 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 3.31 | 3.48 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 141 | 588 | 154 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 3.31 | 2.96 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 136 | 615 | 131 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 4.82 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 136 | 615 | 131 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 4.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 15 | 1 | 29 | 125 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 7% | 1.9 | 25.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 154 | 0 | 161 | 681 | 124 | 75 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 190 | 806 | 164 | 88 | 24 | — | — | 20.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.89 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 16 | 68 | 12 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 18.2% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 161 | 681 | 131 | 72 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 130 | 70 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 154 | 651 | 126 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.94 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 63 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 86 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 98 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 50 | 318 | 1343 | 260 | 141 | 44 | 76% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.58 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 89 | 28 | 77% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 81 | 438 | 1919 | 375 | 225 | 51 | 81% | 4.4 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.40 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 37 | 200 | 876 | 171 | 103 | 23 | 81% | 4.4 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Giesting (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.91 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 474 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 83 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 83 |
| Danny Duffy L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 82 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 81 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 78 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 77 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 77 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.67 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .298 | 4.50 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 358 | -0.17 | 4.22 | 483 | 77 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 76 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 75 |
| Chad Bell L 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.05 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.13 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.08 | 3.47 | 393 | 74 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 74 |
| Logan Boyd L 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.9% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 276 | 74 |
| Felix Doubront L 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 74 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 74 |
| Darin Gorski L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 74 |
| Roenis Elías L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 73 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 73 |
| Amir Garrett L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.35 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.64 | 30.3% | 19.5% | 137 | -1.71 | 3.06 | 712 | 73 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 6.3% | 153 | +0.16 | 4.24 | 501 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 159 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 1.22 | 4.94 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |