Spencer Giesting

Spencer Giesting P Reno Aces

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%17.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4550

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	20.8%	16.6%	4.2%	4.3%	7.04	5.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	4.4%	7.04	5.12	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	18.3%	15.6%	2.6%	2.3%	4.00	4.78	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	18.3%	15.6%	2.6%	2.3%	4.00	4.78	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	23.7%	13.6%	10.1%	1.7%	4.00	3.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.0%	3.31	2.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.3%	5.31	4.67	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.3%	5.31	4.67	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	2.9%	5.31	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	32	1	53	237	69	27	5	3%	1.6	23.0%	10.8%	12.1%	2.5%	4.27	3.88	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	32	1	53	237	69	27	5	3%	1.6	23.0%	10.8%	12.1%	2.5%	4.27	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	ARI	2	0	3	13	7	0	0	0%	1.6	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	2.70	-1.45	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	ARI	30	1	49	224	62	27	5	3%	1.6	27.7%	12.1%	15.6%	2.2%	4.38	3.51	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	59	262	73	29	6	—	—	28.0%	11.3%	16.8%	2.2%	4.34	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	161	681	129	66	21	100%	6.2	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.82	4.79	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	159	671	128	65	21	100%	6.4	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.78	4.79	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	154	651	125	63	21	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.7%	9.5%	3.2%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	147	622	118	61	21	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	138	584	109	59	21	100%	6.3	18.6%	10.2%	8.5%	3.5%	5.04	5.14	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	78	329	62	32	10	100%	6.5	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.73	4.70	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	105	443	85	43	13	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.9%	4.69	4.70	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	119	502	96	49	15	100%	6.3	19.1%	9.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.74	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	122	515	98	51	16	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.79	4.86	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	120	507	94	51	17	100%	6.3	18.6%	10.2%	8.5%	3.3%	4.93	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	544	2298	435	225	71	100%	6.3	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.44	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	160	83	26	99%	6.2	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		117	81	462	2031	394	229	53	69%	3.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	2.6%	4.31	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	35	200	879	170	99	23	69%	3.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	2.6%	4.31	4.33	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Giesting (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	17.8%	10.0%	3.1%	—	4.81	19.1%	9.4%	474	-0.11	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	78
Michael Roth L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	25	SP-	4.94	12.1%	8.3%	3.3%	.298	4.42	13.5%	6.2%	358	-0.52	3.96	483	78
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	75
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	75
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	73
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	73
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	73
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	72
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	72
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	71
Pat Peterson L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	13.5%	10.6%	1.6%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	108	70
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	70
Trey Dombroski L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	22.3%	8.4%	4.0%	.280	4.93	19.0%	8.3%	302	+0.45	3.80	421	70
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	70
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	154	18.7%	9.8%	1.24	4.87
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75