Alex Cornwell
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 202 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121130vR 139
ERA5.35
FIP5.35
K%14.1%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%2.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 2.25 | 4.29 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 2.25 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 10 | 70 | 306 | 78 | 19 | 5 | 42% | 2.9 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 10 | 70 | 306 | 78 | 19 | 5 | 42% | 2.9 | 25.5% | 6.2% | 19.3% | 1.6% | 5.14 | 2.61 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 119 | 492 | 102 | 23 | 6 | 91% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 5.3% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 2.87 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 119 | 492 | 102 | 23 | 6 | 91% | 5.4 | 20.7% | 4.7% | 16.1% | 1.2% | 2.87 | 2.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 99 | 435 | 99 | 40 | 9 | 60% | 4.0 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 4.91 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 15 | 99 | 435 | 99 | 40 | 9 | 60% | 4.0 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 3.49 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 35 | 12 | 93 | 424 | 71 | 45 | 9 | 34% | 2.6 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.92 | 5.01 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 35 | 12 | 93 | 424 | 71 | 45 | 9 | 34% | 2.6 | 16.7% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 5.92 | 4.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 42 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 11.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 43 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 42 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.38 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 43 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.98 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 128 | 98 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 57 | 389 | 1689 | 286 | 141 | 36 | 50% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 3.90 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 29 | 200 | 868 | 147 | 73 | 19 | 50% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Cornwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 14.1% | 11.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.35 | 15.1% | 3.3% | 133 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 80 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 79 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 78 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 78 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 74 |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 74 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 74 |
| Matt Walker L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 73 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .295 | 7.18 | 11.4% | -3.7% | 38 | +2.94 | 3.39 | 261 | 72 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 72 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 72 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 72 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 72 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 71 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 70 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 70 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 69 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 69 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.06 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 145 | 68 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.30 | 11.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .381 | 3.63 | 17.1% | 11.8% | 49 | -1.67 | 3.63 | 322 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 1.14 | 5.32 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |