Alex Cornwell — OGILVIE

Alex Cornwell P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 202 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%13.5%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	32	5	2	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	2.25	4.29	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	32	5	2	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	2.25	4.22	—
2022	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	10	70	306	78	19	5	42%	2.9	18.9%	7.3%	11.5%	2.4%	5.14	3.76	—
2022	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	10	70	306	78	19	5	42%	2.9	25.5%	6.2%	19.3%	1.6%	5.14	2.61	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	119	492	102	23	6	91%	5.4	16.2%	5.3%	10.9%	1.4%	2.87	3.16	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	119	492	102	23	6	91%	5.4	16.2%	5.3%	10.9%	1.4%	2.87	3.16	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	119	492	102	23	6	91%	5.4	20.7%	4.7%	16.1%	1.2%	2.87	2.62	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.9%	4.91	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	1.9%	4.91	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.1%	4.91	3.49	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	2.7%	5.92	4.61	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	2.7%	5.92	4.61	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	2.1%	5.92	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	STL	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	13.5%	10.7%	2.8%	2.7%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	41	31	8	0%	1.0	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.13	5.17	-0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	274	41	30	8	0%	1.0	14.8%	10.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.17	5.23	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	18	13	3	0%	1.0	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	2.8%	5.13	5.17	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	36	0	38	160	24	17	5	0%	1.1	14.8%	10.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.17	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	41	30	8	0%	1.0	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.15	4.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	122	89	24	0%	1.1	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.15	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		114	57	389	1689	282	134	35	50%	3.4	16.7%	7.9%	8.8%	2.1%	4.51	3.83	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	29	200	868	145	69	18	50%	3.4	16.7%	7.9%	8.8%	2.1%	4.51	3.83	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Cornwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	—	5.20	14.6%	3.9%	133	+0.03	—	—	—
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	83
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	81
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	80
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	75
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	75
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	74
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	73
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	73
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	72
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	70
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	70
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	68
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	14.2%	10.7%	1.09	5.16
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10