Alex Cornwell

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 202 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	22	20	119	2.87	2.62	20.7%	4.7%	—	K 16.2% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.16
2024	25	MIX2 levels	25	15	99	4.91	3.49	22.8%	9.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.82
2025	26	AAASTL	35	12	93	5.92	4.29	16.7%	10.6%	—	K 14.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.57
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBSTL	1	1	7	5.30	5.30	13.8%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBSTL	3	3	19	5.28	5.33	14.5%	11.2%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBSTL	4	4	24	5.34	5.43	14.8%	11.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

CompsEnrique Lechuga (age 29) · John Anderson (age 27) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%13.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	32	5	2	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	2.25	4.29	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	0	8	32	5	2	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	2.25	4.22	—
2022	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	10	70	306	78	19	5	42%	2.9	18.9%	7.3%	11.5%	2.4%	5.14	3.76	—
2022	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	10	70	306	78	19	5	42%	2.9	25.5%	6.2%	19.3%	1.6%	5.14	2.61	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	119	492	102	23	6	91%	5.4	16.2%	5.3%	10.9%	1.4%	2.87	3.16	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	119	492	102	23	6	91%	5.4	20.7%	4.7%	16.1%	1.2%	2.87	2.62	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	1.9%	4.91	3.82	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	1.9%	4.91	3.82	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	99	435	99	40	9	60%	4.0	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.1%	4.91	3.49	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	14.4%	9.6%	4.8%	2.7%	5.92	4.57	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	14.4%	9.6%	4.8%	2.7%	5.92	4.57	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	35	12	93	424	71	45	9	34%	2.6	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	2.1%	5.92	4.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	STL	1	1	7	30	4	3	1	100%	7.0	13.8%	11.2%	2.6%	2.8%	5.30	5.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	52	219	32	25	7	100%	6.5	14.5%	11.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.28	5.33	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	43	183	27	21	6	100%	7.2	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	3.2%	5.34	5.43	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	19	80	12	9	2	100%	6.3	14.5%	11.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.28	5.33	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	24	101	15	12	3	100%	6.0	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	3.2%	5.34	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	43	181	27	20	6	100%	7.2	14.7%	11.3%	3.4%	3.1%	5.31	5.01	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	126	93	28	100%	6.8	14.7%	11.3%	3.4%	3.1%	5.31	5.01	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		114	57	389	1689	284	134	35	50%	3.4	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	2.1%	4.51	3.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	29	200	868	146	69	18	50%	3.4	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	2.1%	4.51	3.81	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 93 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.57 (+0.37)K% 16.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.75%	—	×0.860	14.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×0.900	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.869	×1.100	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 84 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.71 (+0.36)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.51%	—	×0.810	19.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.100	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.386	×1.200	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.46 (+0.25)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.46%	—	×0.860	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.020	×1.100	3.32%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 83 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.12 (+0.58)K% 20.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.64%	—	×0.770	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.36%	—	×1.150	5.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.093	×1.250	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 37 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.24 (+0.49)K% 20.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.95%	—	×0.810	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.100	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.080	×1.200	1.50%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 70 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.76 (+1.13)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.740	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.21%	—	×1.180	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.880	×1.300	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 8 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.59 (+1.31)K% 15.6% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.680	10.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Cornwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	13.8%	11.2%	2.8%	—	5.38	14.6%	3.3%	95	+0.08	—	—	—
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	81
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	74
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	73
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	73
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	73
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	73
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	72
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	71
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	70
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	70
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	70
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	69
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	68
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	67
Steven Moyers L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	28	SW	5.24	14.7%	8.1%	4.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	464	66
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	66
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	66
Brian Burres L 2008 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP-	4.79	10.6%	8.1%	2.9%	.316	4.87	13.0%	5.0%	93	+0.08	4.50	344	65
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	65
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	14.3%	11.2%	1.16	5.30
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*