Alex Cornwell
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 202 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%7.6%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 10 | 70 | 306 | 78 | 19 | 5 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 5.14 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 22 | 20 | 119 | 492 | 102 | 23 | 6 | 16.2% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 2.87 | 3.15 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 25 | 15 | 99 | 435 | 99 | 40 | 9 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 4.91 | 3.84 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 35 | 12 | 93 | 424 | 71 | 45 | 9 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 5.92 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 65 | 48 | 11 | 15.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 68 | 46 | 11 | 16.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 68 | 45 | 11 | 16.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 66 | 43 | 11 | 16.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 63 | 42 | 11 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 60 | 41 | 11 | 16.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 56 | 39 | 11 | 16.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 5.22 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 58 | 35 | 11 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 54 | 34 | 10 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 49 | 33 | 10 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 57 | 389 | 1689 | 286 | 141 | 36 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 3.89 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 29 | 200 | 868 | 147 | 72 | 19 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Cornwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 15.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 5.03 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 286 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 93 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 85 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 85 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 84 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 83 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 83 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 83 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 83 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 83 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 82 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2029 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 82 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 82 |
| Blair Walters L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 262 | 81 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 81 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 81 |
| Kyle Hald L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 81 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 223 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 80 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.