Reinold Navarro

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 178 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#194ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Pirates G…	10	9	24	3.38	3.18	31.9%	18.1%	—	K 21.7% · BB 22.6% · FIP 4.92
2025	18	MIX2 levels	15	12	32	5.34	3.04	40.9%	26.8%	—	K 30.4% · BB 23.8% · FIP 3.55
2026	19	MIX2 levels	24	17	79	2.96	3.16	39.5%	20.5%	—	K 29.0% · BB 23.7% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	20	MLBPIT	—	—	0	5.01	5.01	29.9%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPIT	6	6	31	4.68	4.58	29.6%	17.4%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBPIT	9	9	47	4.43	4.28	30.1%	15.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsLiam Sullivan (age 21) · Larson Kindreich (age 23) · Brent Killam (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%29.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$50M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$32M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	21.7%	22.6%	-0.9%	1.4%	3.38	4.92	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	21.7%	22.6%	-0.9%	1.4%	3.38	4.92	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	31.9%	18.1%	13.8%	0.9%	3.38	3.18	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	30.4%	23.8%	6.6%	0.0%	5.34	3.55	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	30.4%	23.8%	6.6%	0.0%	5.34	3.55	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	40.9%	26.8%	14.1%	0.0%	5.34	3.04	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	342	135	70	5	71%	3.3	29.0%	23.7%	5.3%	1.7%	2.96	4.61	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	342	135	70	5	71%	3.3	29.0%	23.7%	5.3%	1.7%	2.96	4.61	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	79	342	135	70	5	71%	3.3	39.5%	20.5%	19.0%	1.5%	2.96	3.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.9%	20.0%	9.9%	2.8%	5.01	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	62	263	78	46	7	100%	5.7	29.6%	17.4%	12.2%	2.7%	4.79	4.69	+0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	65	273	82	42	7	100%	5.4	30.1%	15.5%	14.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.39	+0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	66	281	86	40	7	100%	5.5	30.5%	14.3%	16.2%	2.7%	4.32	4.18	+1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	67	284	88	38	8	100%	5.6	30.9%	13.5%	17.4%	2.6%	4.15	4.04	+1.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	67	283	88	37	7	100%	6.1	31.2%	13.1%	18.2%	2.6%	4.02	3.94	+1.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	68	285	90	37	7	100%	6.1	31.4%	13.0%	18.4%	2.6%	3.96	3.92	+1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	66	279	88	37	7	100%	6.0	31.4%	13.1%	18.3%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	63	266	83	35	7	100%	6.3	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	2.8%	4.01	4.04	+1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	65	273	90	35	8	100%	5.9	33.1%	12.7%	20.4%	2.9%	3.95	3.90	+1.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	58	247	81	32	8	100%	5.8	32.7%	13.0%	19.7%	3.1%	4.03	4.08	+0.9
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	52	218	71	29	7	100%	5.7	32.3%	13.3%	19.0%	3.4%	4.18	4.28	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	45	189	60	26	7	100%	6.4	31.9%	13.7%	18.1%	3.6%	4.38	4.51	+0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	31	131	39	23	3	100%	5.2	29.6%	17.4%	12.2%	2.5%	4.68	4.58	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	47	198	60	31	5	100%	5.2	30.1%	15.5%	14.6%	2.5%	4.43	4.28	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	56	236	72	34	6	100%	5.6	30.5%	14.3%	16.2%	2.5%	4.21	4.07	+0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	60	253	78	34	6	100%	5.5	30.9%	13.5%	17.4%	2.4%	4.04	3.93	+1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	61	258	80	34	6	100%	6.1	31.2%	13.1%	18.2%	2.4%	3.91	3.83	+1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	63	266	84	35	6	100%	6.3	31.4%	13.0%	18.4%	2.4%	3.85	3.81	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	63	266	84	35	7	100%	6.3	31.4%	13.1%	18.3%	2.5%	3.85	3.85	+1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	60	253	79	34	7	100%	6.0	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	2.6%	3.90	3.93	+1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	61	258	85	33	7	100%	6.1	33.1%	12.7%	20.4%	2.7%	3.83	3.78	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	56	236	77	31	7	100%	6.2	32.7%	13.0%	19.7%	2.9%	3.90	3.95	+0.9
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	49	207	67	28	6	100%	6.1	32.3%	13.3%	19.0%	3.1%	4.04	4.14	+0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	42	177	56	24	6	100%	6.0	31.9%	13.7%	18.1%	3.3%	4.23	4.36	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	650	2743	862	374	72	100%	5.7	31.4%	13.6%	17.8%	2.6%	4.03	3.62	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	265	115	22	100%	5.7	31.4%	13.6%	17.8%	2.6%	4.03	3.62	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		49	38	135	607	170	143	8	78%	2.8	27.9%	23.5%	4.4%	1.3%	3.60	4.41	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	56	200	899	251	211	11	78%	2.8	27.9%	23.5%	4.4%	1.3%	3.60	4.41	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 69 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.61 (+1.54)K% 39.1% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.740	28.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.07%	—	×1.180	23.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 10 IPFIP 3.79 → 5.36 (+1.57)K% 41.9% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.86%	—	×0.770	32.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.26%	—	×1.150	26.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Pirates · 26 IPFIP 1.73 → 3.55 (+1.81)K% 44.8% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.76%	—	×0.680	30.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.250	23.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.73 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 6 IPFIP 6.17 → 7.91 (+1.73)K% 31.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.740	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	45.45%	—	×1.180	53.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.932	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 6.17 → 7.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Pirates Gold · 24 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.92 (+1.74)K% 31.9% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.90%	—	×0.680	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.10%	—	×1.250	22.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.847	×1.400	1.43%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reinold Navarro (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.41	30.1%	14.4%	194	-0.60	—	—	—
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	81
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	73
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	70
Scott Kazmir L 2004 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	27.0%	13.8%	2.6%	.337	3.34	24.9%	14.8%	537	-0.68	3.20	1,764	70
Luke Little L 2021 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP-	4.02	25.8%	12.5%	2.8%	.200	2.91	28.0%	12.3%	155	-1.11	2.74	277	70
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	69
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	69
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	69
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	69
Fernando Sanchez L 2022 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	24.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.318	3.93	17.7%	6.9%	213	-0.24	3.09	332	69
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	68
Jackson Wolf L 2021 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	27.0%	13.6%	3.1%	.423	4.65	19.6%	9.9%	357	+0.42	4.03	620	67
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	65
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	64
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	64
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	64
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	64
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	64
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	63
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	60	31.3%	14.1%	1.10	4.22
Jake Diekman ('24)	3.0	50	28.7%	13.4%	0.79	3.91
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Armando Benítez ('08)	3.9	65	29.1%	12.4%	1.10	3.13
Eric Plunk ('86-'99, 11 WAR*)	5.8	82	27.6%*	12.1%*	1.06*	3.83*
Mark Clear ('79-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.0	80	33.4%*	15.2%*	0.78*	3.89*