Reinold Navarro — OGILVIE

Reinold Navarro P Bradenton Marauders

Age 19 LHP 6'0" / 178 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%27.3%

BB%22.7%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL2530

CMD3040

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$20M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	21.7%	22.6%	-0.9%	1.4%	3.38	4.92	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	21.7%	22.6%	-0.9%	1.4%	3.38	4.92	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	10	9	24	116	37	21	1	90%	2.4	31.9%	18.1%	13.8%	0.9%	3.38	3.18	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	30.4%	23.8%	6.6%	0.0%	5.34	3.55	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	30.4%	23.8%	6.6%	0.0%	5.34	3.55	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	32	149	61	40	0	80%	2.1	40.9%	26.8%	14.1%	0.0%	5.34	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	17	79	342	135	70	5	71%	3.3	29.0%	23.7%	5.3%	1.7%	2.96	4.61	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	17	79	342	135	70	5	71%	3.3	29.0%	23.7%	5.3%	1.7%	2.96	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	PIT	21	14	69	299	117	60	4	67%	3.3	39.1%	20.1%	19.1%	1.3%	2.60	3.07	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	PIT	3	3	10	43	18	10	1	100%	3.2	41.9%	23.3%	18.6%	2.3%	5.59	3.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	81	343	94	66	10	100%	5.4	27.4%	19.2%	8.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.16	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	85	361	99	60	10	100%	5.3	27.4%	16.7%	10.7%	2.8%	4.98	4.82	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	90	379	106	56	10	100%	5.6	28.0%	14.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.67	4.49	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	93	393	112	53	11	100%	5.5	28.6%	13.5%	15.1%	2.7%	4.42	4.26	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	95	403	117	51	11	100%	5.6	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.10	+0.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	97	408	120	50	11	100%	5.7	29.5%	12.2%	17.3%	2.7%	4.09	3.99	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	408	121	50	11	100%	6.0	29.7%	12.1%	17.6%	2.7%	4.02	3.97	+1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	95	402	119	49	11	100%	6.0	29.7%	12.2%	17.5%	2.7%	4.01	4.00	+1.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	92	390	115	48	11	100%	6.2	29.6%	12.4%	17.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.09	+0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	88	372	109	47	11	100%	5.9	29.4%	12.6%	16.8%	3.0%	4.15	4.22	+0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	83	350	101	45	11	100%	5.9	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	3.2%	4.30	4.40	+0.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	77	326	100	41	11	100%	5.9	30.6%	12.4%	18.2%	3.4%	4.32	4.33	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	71	301	91	39	11	100%	6.0	30.2%	12.8%	17.3%	3.6%	4.46	4.55	+0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	40	169	46	32	4	100%	5.7	27.4%	19.2%	8.2%	2.6%	5.17	5.04	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	62	262	72	44	7	100%	5.6	27.4%	16.7%	10.7%	2.6%	4.87	4.71	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	76	321	90	47	8	100%	5.4	28.0%	14.8%	13.2%	2.5%	4.56	4.38	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	84	355	101	48	9	100%	5.6	28.6%	13.5%	15.1%	2.5%	4.31	4.15	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	88	372	108	47	9	100%	5.5	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	2.5%	4.12	3.99	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	90	380	112	46	9	100%	6.0	29.5%	12.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.98	3.88	+1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	92	388	115	47	10	100%	6.1	29.7%	12.1%	17.6%	2.5%	3.91	3.86	+1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	90	380	113	46	10	100%	6.0	29.7%	12.2%	17.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.89	+1.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	88	372	110	46	10	100%	5.9	29.6%	12.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.94	3.97	+0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	84	355	104	45	10	100%	6.0	29.4%	12.6%	16.8%	2.7%	4.03	4.10	+0.7
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	97	43	10	100%	6.1	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.27	+0.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	73	308	94	38	10	100%	6.1	30.6%	12.4%	18.2%	3.1%	4.18	4.19	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	87	37	10	100%	6.2	30.2%	12.8%	17.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	179	1013	4278	1249	567	114	100%	5.7	29.2%	13.3%	15.9%	2.7%	4.20	3.78	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	247	112	23	100%	5.7	29.2%	13.3%	15.9%	2.7%	4.20	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		49	38	135	607	170	143	8	78%	2.8	27.9%	23.5%	4.4%	1.3%	3.60	4.41	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	56	200	899	251	211	11	78%	2.8	27.9%	23.5%	4.4%	1.3%	3.60	4.41	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reinold Navarro (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	27.3%	22.7%	2.9%	—	4.81	27.6%	10.8%	256	-0.82	—	—	—
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	85
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	72
Gabe Morales L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	19.3%	21.0%	1.8%	.313	4.23	22.9%	8.7%	124	-0.89	2.92	268	72
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	70
Frank Mozzicato L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	19	SP	5.00	21.5%	19.7%	2.2%	.306	5.60	18.6%	0.2%	288	+0.60	5.00	428	69
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	68
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	67
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	67
Maddux Bruns L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP	4.54	23.0%	24.6%	0.5%	.340	4.43	20.8%	2.9%	175	-0.11	3.50	235	67
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	67
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	66
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	66
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	64
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP	6.27	17.4%	30.7%	1.4%	.396	5.46	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.81	3.98	184	63
Josue Arias L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	18	SP	4.73	18.8%	18.6%	1.6%	.340	6.98	12.6%	-18.5%	50	+2.25	4.73	114	62
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	62
Noel Vela L 2018 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP-	5.10	17.0%	16.0%	2.6%	.404	4.61	20.2%	5.2%	98	-0.49	4.48	255	62
Sandro Bargallo L 2021 · 6.70 FIP	19	SP-	6.70	15.8%	26.5%	2.9%	.308	4.91	19.2%	-3.1%	82	-1.79	4.16	129	62
Jesus Gomez L 2019 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	19.3%	12.4%	3.8%	.275	4.40	24.3%	9.8%	23	-0.72	4.22	121	62
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	83	29.1%	13.7%	1.11	4.39
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18