Ryan Webb — OGILVIE

Ryan Webb P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%19.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	15	14	51	238	68	30	3	93%	3.4	22.0%	15.4%	6.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.91	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	15	14	51	238	68	30	3	93%	3.4	28.6%	12.6%	16.0%	1.3%	3.91	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	19	19	87	368	87	37	6	100%	4.6	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	1.6%	3.22	3.85	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	19	19	87	368	87	37	6	100%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.6%	1.6%	3.22	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	27	25	141	588	151	52	7	93%	5.2	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	1.4%	2.80	3.28	—
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	27	25	141	588	151	52	7	93%	5.2	25.7%	8.8%	16.8%	1.2%	2.80	2.71	—
2025	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	28	21	121	521	119	61	12	75%	4.3	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	2.1%	4.15	4.13	—
2025	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	28	21	121	521	119	61	12	75%	4.3	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.3%	4.15	3.93	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AAA	Columbus Clippers	19	13	57	296	57	66	11	68%	3.0	16.9%	23.4%	-6.5%	4.1%	8.10	6.88	-1.5
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	11	11	65	274	54	33	6	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	2.4%	4.63	4.63	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	2.3%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	121	570	111	99	17	—	—	19.5%	17.4%	2.1%	3.1%	6.25	5.68	-0.4
2026 FULL	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	6	27	5	3	1	—	—	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	2.3%	4.63	4.25	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CLE	14	14	86	365	72	43	9	100%	6.2	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	2.5%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2028	29	MLB	CLE	14	14	82	348	69	41	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	2.7%	4.71	4.77	+0.2
2029	30	MLB	CLE	13	13	78	327	70	36	10	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.67	4.65	+0.2
2030	31	MLB	CLE	12	12	72	305	65	34	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.85	-0.0
2031	32	MLB	CLE	11	11	67	282	59	33	10	100%	6.1	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	3.4%	4.95	5.07	-0.3
2027	28	MLB	CLE	6	6	37	156	31	18	4	100%	6.2	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	2.5%	4.64	4.67	-0.1
2028	29	MLB	CLE	8	8	49	207	41	24	6	100%	6.1	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	2.7%	4.71	4.77	-0.1
2029	30	MLB	CLE	9	9	55	232	50	25	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.67	4.65	-0.1
2030	31	MLB	CLE	9	9	56	236	50	27	7	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.85	-0.2
2031	32	MLB	CLE	9	9	56	236	49	28	8	100%	6.2	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	3.4%	4.95	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			44	44	259	1093	226	125	32	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.43	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	175	97	25	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.43	+2.3
Career	—			108	92	457	2011	399	268	40	85%	4.2	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	2.0%	4.02	4.21	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—			47	40	200	881	175	117	18	85%	4.2	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	2.0%	4.02	4.21	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Webb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.8%	12.0%	2.4%	—	4.70	20.4%	8.9%	246	+0.07	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	15.4%	10.5%	2.6%	.323	3.78	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.78	3.75	324	83
Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP-	3.83	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	81
Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP	26	SP	4.00	16.8%	10.8%	1.7%	.343	4.52	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.52	4.00	185	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP	24	SP-	4.93	16.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	116	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP-	4.13	16.2%	9.2%	2.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	300	76
Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	18.0%	8.4%	2.2%	.304	4.45	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.58	3.39	291	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP	27	SP-	4.77	12.6%	10.7%	2.5%	.278	5.20	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.43	4.77	118	76
Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP-	4.84	17.8%	10.9%	3.4%	.275	5.64	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.80	2.96	379	75
Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP-	3.78	14.0%	7.9%	1.6%	.307	4.62	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.84	3.06	217	75
Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP	27	SP-	4.53	17.4%	8.8%	3.3%	.311	4.31	17.2%	9.9%	300	-0.22	3.88	523	75
Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	14.5%	11.5%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	125	74
James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	129	74
Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP-	4.39	17.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	310	74
John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	14.3%	8.7%	1.9%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	235	74
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP-	4.91	19.6%	13.9%	3.1%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	200	73
Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	16.8%	12.2%	1.7%	.330	3.89	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.25	3.89	154	73
Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	15.2%	11.4%	2.8%	.323	4.39	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.40	4.39	206	73
Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP-	4.98	16.2%	7.4%	4.2%	.246	6.63	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.65	4.98	179	72
Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP	27	SP	4.90	18.5%	11.3%	3.5%	.319	5.13	14.3%	7.9%	70	+0.23	4.25	227	72
Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP	26	SP	4.14	16.8%	8.2%	2.6%	.288	5.94	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.80	2.86	282	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	79	20.4%	11.6%	1.09	4.72
Junior Guerra ('21)	6	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	6	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	4	98	19.5%	10.3%	1.22	4.52
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7	67	21.3%	10.1%	1.29	4.66
Adam Conley ('19)	5	83	19.7%	9.5%	1.17	4.82