Ryan Webb — OGILVIE

Ryan Webb P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%18.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	51	238	68	30	3	93%	3.4	22.0%	15.4%	6.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	51	238	68	30	3	93%	3.4	28.6%	12.6%	16.0%	1.3%	3.91	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	87	368	87	37	6	100%	4.6	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	1.7%	3.22	3.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	87	368	87	37	6	100%	4.6	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	1.7%	3.22	3.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	87	368	87	37	6	100%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.6%	1.6%	3.22	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	588	151	52	7	93%	5.2	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	1.4%	2.80	3.26	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	141	588	151	52	7	93%	5.2	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	1.4%	2.80	3.26	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	141	588	151	52	7	93%	5.2	25.7%	8.8%	16.8%	1.2%	2.80	2.71	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	21	121	521	119	61	12	75%	4.3	19.0%	10.5%	8.4%	2.3%	4.15	4.11	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	21	121	521	119	61	12	75%	4.3	19.0%	10.5%	8.4%	2.3%	4.15	4.11	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	28	21	121	521	119	61	12	75%	4.3	22.8%	11.7%	11.1%	2.3%	4.15	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	26	13	62	329	65	77	11	50%	2.4	16.4%	21.1%	-4.7%	3.7%	8.66	6.40	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	26	13	62	329	65	77	11	50%	2.4	16.4%	21.1%	-4.7%	3.7%	8.66	6.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CLE	26	13	62	329	65	77	11	50%	2.4	19.8%	23.4%	-3.6%	3.3%	8.66	6.23	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	7	31	6	3	1	100%	7.3	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	2.4%	4.59	4.59	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	70	360	71	80	12	—	—	19.7%	22.3%	-2.6%	3.3%	8.24	6.21	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	86	365	70	39	9	100%	6.2	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.64	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	82	348	66	37	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.74	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	78	327	68	33	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.62	+0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	72	305	63	32	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	37	156	30	17	4	100%	6.2	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.64	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	49	207	39	22	6	100%	6.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.74	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	55	232	48	23	7	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.62	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	56	236	48	24	8	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	197	833	166	86	24	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.32	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	87	24	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.32	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		115	92	462	2044	395	257	42	80%	4.0	19.3%	12.6%	6.8%	2.0%	4.15	4.18	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	884	171	111	18	80%	4.0	19.3%	12.6%	6.8%	2.0%	4.15	4.18	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Webb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	18.9%	10.8%	2.4%	—	4.67	19.6%	9.2%	246	+0.08	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	87
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	80
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	80
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	79
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	76
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	76
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	76
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	76
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	74
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	74
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	72
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	71
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	81	19.6%	10.5%	1.07	4.64
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93