Luke Little — OGILVIE

Luke Little P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 LHP 6'8" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.01

FIP4.03

K%27.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

SL (21%)

SI (5%)

FB-1.5 (79%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	5	4	11	50	19	5	1	80%	2.2	25.8%	12.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.91	4.02	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	5	4	11	50	19	5	1	80%	2.2	38.0%	10.0%	28.0%	2.0%	4.91	2.19	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	66	285	101	38	0	92%	2.7	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.0%	2.47	2.86	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	66	285	101	38	0	92%	2.7	35.4%	13.3%	22.1%	0.0%	2.47	1.76	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	4	70	309	117	45	1	9%	1.6	30.3%	15.8%	14.5%	0.4%	1.92	2.76	+1.5
2023	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	4	70	309	117	45	1	9%	1.6	30.3%	15.8%	14.5%	0.4%	1.92	2.76	+1.5
2023	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	4	70	309	117	45	1	9%	1.6	37.9%	14.6%	23.3%	0.3%	1.92	1.88	+2.3
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.7%	15.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.58	3.43	+0.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.7%	15.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.58	3.43	+0.4
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.2%	17.3%	7.9%	0.7%	3.58	3.56	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	24.7%	12.1%	12.6%	1.2%	2.89	3.19	+1.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	24.7%	12.1%	12.6%	1.2%	2.89	3.19	+1.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	29.6%	15.0%	14.6%	1.1%	2.89	3.12	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	1	36	159	45	27	2	2%	0.9	28.3%	17.0%	11.3%	1.3%	2.97	3.57	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	43	0	51	252	58	45	4	0%	1.2	19.0%	17.3%	1.7%	1.4%	6.57	4.44	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	43	0	51	252	58	45	4	0%	1.2	19.0%	17.3%	1.7%	1.4%	6.57	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	14	0	16	74	19	11	1	0%	1.1	25.7%	14.9%	10.8%	1.4%	4.02	3.56	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CHC	28	0	34	173	38	34	2	0%	1.2	22.0%	19.7%	2.3%	1.2%	7.68	4.37	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	12.39	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	12.39	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	6	23	6	3	0	0%	1.1	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	2.1%	4.01	4.03	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	2.1%	4.01	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	56	275	64	48	4	—	—	23.4%	17.5%	5.9%	1.6%	6.32	4.40	+0.1
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	7	28	64	48	4	—	—	233.7%	174.6%	59.0%	16.3%	54.47	14.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	66	277	75	35	6	0%	1.1	27.0%	12.8%	14.2%	2.2%	4.04	4.04	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	272	73	34	6	0%	1.1	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	2.3%	4.08	4.10	+0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	59	0	62	262	71	33	6	0%	1.1	27.0%	12.8%	14.2%	2.2%	4.04	4.04	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	69	32	6	0%	1.1	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	2.3%	4.08	4.10	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	1	165	704	191	96	14	1%	1.0	27.2%	13.7%	13.5%	2.0%	3.82	3.66	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	1	200	851	231	116	17	1%	1.0	27.2%	13.7%	13.5%	2.0%	3.82	3.66	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		194	33	293	1302	331	197	11	17%	1.5	25.5%	15.2%	10.3%	0.8%	3.35	3.31	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	23	200	890	226	135	7	17%	1.5	25.5%	15.2%	10.3%	0.8%	3.35	3.31	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	27.2%	13.2%	2.1%	—	4.07	26.8%	14.2%	130	+0.04	—	—	—
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	81
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	78
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	78
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.87	24.5%	10.1%	153	+1.78	3.09	183	78
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	77
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	77
Taylor Hearn L 2020 · 3.72 FIP	25	SU	3.72	30.3%	14.5%	2.5%	.275	4.06	22.0%	12.0%	273	+0.34	3.72	572	77
Hunter Cervenka L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	25.2%	14.7%	1.5%	.381	4.34	22.0%	10.0%	109	+0.71	3.08	194	76
James Pazos L 2016 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	30.6%	16.9%	0.9%	.316	3.90	21.5%	12.4%	155	+0.73	2.55	261	76
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	76
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	76
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	74
Ty Damron L 2019 · 3.29 FIP	25	SU	3.29	25.7%	12.7%	1.4%	.191	5.29	15.6%	7.1%	206	+2.00	3.29	346	74
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	74
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	74
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	73
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	73
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	73
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	73
Cionel Pérez L 2021 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	25.5%	13.2%	2.4%	.299	2.96	20.3%	10.3%	165	-0.95	2.67	514	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	63	26.9%	12.8%	0.86	4.04
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64