Luke Little
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
LHP
6'8" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA3.86
FIP4.13
xFIP2.52
SIERA1.79
K%25.4%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%12.7%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6026.8%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
SL (21%)
SI (5%)
FB-1.5 (79%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 3.96 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 22 | 66 | 285 | 101 | 38 | 0 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 2.47 | 2.86 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 43 | 4 | 70 | 309 | 117 | 45 | 1 | 30.7% | 16.2% | 0.4% | 1.92 | 2.77 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 34 | 1 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 25.7% | 15.6% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 45 | 2 | 62 | 267 | 79 | 40 | 3 | 26.2% | 14.2% | 1.2% | 2.89 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 6 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 19 | — | 19 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 26.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 28 | 122 | 31 | 20 | 3 | 25.4% | 16.5% | 2.2% | 4.24 | 2.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 55 | 26 | 5 | 26.2% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 54 | 25 | 5 | 26.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 53 | 25 | 5 | 25.8% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 51 | 24 | 5 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 23 | 5 | 24.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 23 | 5 | 23.5% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 157 | 33 | 251 | 1092 | 299 | 170 | 8 | 27.4% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 2.76 | 3.16 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 26 | 200 | 871 | 239 | 136 | 6 | 27.4% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 2.76 | 3.16 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Little (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 26.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | — | 4.08 | 26.0% | 13.8% | 148 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 80 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.47 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.77 | 3.70 | 229 | 79 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 30.3% | 14.5% | 2.8% | .275 | 4.08 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 273 | +0.14 | 3.74 | 572 | 78 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.17 | 30.6% | 16.9% | 0.9% | .316 | 3.80 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 155 | +0.63 | 2.55 | 261 | 78 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 78 |
| Eric Torres L 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 29.5% | 13.8% | 1.6% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 134 | 77 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .339 | 3.72 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | -0.00 | 3.13 | 101 | 77 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 25.2% | 14.7% | 1.5% | .381 | 4.34 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 109 | +0.71 | 3.04 | 194 | 77 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 76 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 75 |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.91 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .398 | 1.85 | 34.1% | 23.7% | 52 | -2.06 | 1.85 | 146 | 75 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 25.7% | 12.7% | 1.3% | .191 | 5.37 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 206 | +2.09 | 3.28 | 346 | 75 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 75 |
| Manuel Chavez L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 27.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .393 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 113 | 74 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2029 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 74 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.54 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.08 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.54 | 3.43 | 152 | 74 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.79 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 0.7% | .314 | 3.82 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 214 | +1.03 | 2.79 | 325 | 74 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.0M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$0.8M | ||