Luke Little
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 25
LHP
6'8" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94103vR 113
ERA4.03
FIP4.10
K%28.0%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6026.8%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
SL (21%)
SI (5%)
FB-1.5 (79%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 80% | 2.2 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.00 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 80% | 2.2 | 38.0% | 10.0% | 28.0% | 2.0% | 4.91 | 2.19 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 66 | 285 | 101 | 38 | 0 | 92% | 2.7 | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 2.47 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 66 | 285 | 101 | 38 | 0 | 92% | 2.7 | 35.4% | 13.3% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 2.47 | 1.76 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 4 | 70 | 309 | 117 | 45 | 1 | 9% | 1.6 | 30.7% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 0.4% | 1.92 | 2.76 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 4 | 70 | 309 | 117 | 45 | 1 | 9% | 1.6 | 37.9% | 14.6% | 23.3% | 0.3% | 1.92 | 1.88 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 3.40 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 17.3% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 3.58 | 3.56 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 2 | 62 | 267 | 79 | 40 | 3 | 4% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 2.89 | 3.26 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 2 | 62 | 267 | 79 | 40 | 3 | 4% | 1.4 | 29.6% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 2.89 | 3.12 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 27 | 0 | 35 | 165 | 40 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.1% | 21.0% | -1.9% | 1.0% | 4.93 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 51 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 51 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 78 | 347 | 91 | 55 | 6 | — | — | 26.2% | 15.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 4.43 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 44 | 186 | 91 | 55 | 6 | — | — | 48.9% | 29.7% | 19.2% | 3.1% | 7.82 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 77 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 75 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 73 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 71 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 199 | 1 | 203 | 862 | 240 | 125 | 18 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 850 | 237 | 123 | 18 | 1% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 33 | 277 | 1215 | 320 | 195 | 8 | 19% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 16.1% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.96 | 3.27 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 24 | 200 | 878 | 232 | 141 | 6 | 19% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 16.1% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.96 | 3.27 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Little (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 28.0% | 14.4% | 2.1% | — | 4.12 | 27.6% | 13.9% | 130 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 78 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.17 | 30.6% | 16.9% | 0.9% | .316 | 3.86 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 155 | +0.69 | 2.55 | 261 | 78 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 78 |
| C.J. Widger L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 26.0% | 16.0% | 2.6% | .258 | 5.84 | 18.1% | -0.7% | 57 | +1.47 | 3.71 | 105 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 77 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.79 | 30.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .275 | 4.15 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 273 | +0.36 | 3.66 | 572 | 77 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 25.2% | 14.7% | 1.4% | .381 | 4.46 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 109 | +0.84 | 3.20 | 194 | 76 |
| Eric Torres L 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.28 | 29.5% | 13.8% | 1.7% | .267 | 5.68 | 21.6% | 1.7% | 21 | +2.40 | 2.73 | 155 | 75 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.48 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 150 | +0.81 | 2.95 | 266 | 75 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.07 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.50 | 3.33 | 152 | 75 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 74 |
| Justin King L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 29.7% | 19.7% | 0.8% | .361 | 4.08 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 81 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 111 | 74 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 74 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .339 | 3.78 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.30 | 101 | 73 |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .398 | 2.82 | 30.1% | 16.1% | 86 | -1.16 | 1.86 | 180 | 73 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 25.7% | 12.7% | 1.2% | .191 | 5.90 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 206 | +2.68 | 3.22 | 346 | 73 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 73 |
| Clayton Andrews L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .269 | 5.30 | 22.8% | 2.4% | 25 | +1.58 | 3.13 | 168 | 72 |
| Jake Diekman L 2029 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 72 |
| Cionel Pérez L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 25.5% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.94 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 165 | -0.98 | 2.63 | 524 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 27.7% | 13.9% | 0.86 | 4.09 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |