Luke Little

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 LHP 6'8" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	34	1	33	3.58	3.56	25.2%	17.3%	0.4	K 25.7% · BB 15.6% · FIP 3.43
2025	24	MIX2 levels	45	2	62	2.89	3.12	29.6%	15.0%	1.1	K 25.6% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.12
2026	25	MIX3 levels	45	0	52	7.32	4.42	23.5%	17.7%	0.1	K 19.9% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	47	0	49	4.33	4.53	24.5%	15.2%	0.0
2028PROJ82% MLB	27	MLBCHC	40	0	42	4.45	4.55	24.4%	14.7%	0.0
2029PROJ87% MLB	28	MLBCHC	36	0	38	4.54	4.61	24.2%	14.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%69

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs66

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsHector Mercado (age 26) · Nick Hagadone (age 26) · C.J. Widger (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.33

FIP4.53

K%24.5%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	5	4	11	50	19	5	1	80%	2.2	25.8%	12.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.91	4.02	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	5	4	11	50	19	5	1	80%	2.2	38.0%	10.0%	28.0%	2.0%	4.91	2.19	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	66	285	101	38	0	92%	2.7	26.4%	15.7%	10.7%	0.0%	2.47	2.86	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	66	285	101	38	0	92%	2.7	35.4%	13.3%	22.1%	0.0%	2.47	1.76	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	4	70	309	117	45	1	9%	1.6	30.6%	15.8%	14.8%	0.4%	1.92	2.74	+1.5
2023	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	4	70	309	117	45	1	9%	1.6	37.9%	14.6%	23.3%	0.3%	1.92	1.88	+2.3
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.7%	15.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.58	3.43	+0.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.7%	15.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.58	3.43	+0.4
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	33	139	35	24	1	3%	1.0	25.2%	17.3%	7.9%	0.7%	3.58	3.56	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	1.2%	2.89	3.12	+1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	1.2%	2.89	3.12	+1.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	62	267	79	40	3	4%	1.4	29.6%	15.0%	14.6%	1.1%	2.89	3.12	+1.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	52	260	61	46	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	17.1%	2.8%	1.3%	7.32	4.32	+0.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	52	260	61	46	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	17.1%	2.8%	1.3%	7.32	4.32	+0.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	52	260	61	46	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	17.7%	5.8%	1.5%	7.32	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	1	36	159	45	27	2	2%	0.9	28.3%	17.0%	11.3%	1.3%	2.97	3.57	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	47	0	49	207	51	31	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	15.2%	9.3%	2.2%	4.33	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	48	0	51	214	52	31	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	2.3%	4.45	4.55	0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	42	0	44	186	45	27	5	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.4%	9.8%	2.5%	4.54	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	40	0	42	177	43	26	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.7%	9.7%	2.3%	4.45	4.55	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	36	0	38	160	39	23	4	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.4%	9.8%	2.5%	4.54	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	1	116	497	127	76	10	1%	1.0	25.6%	15.3%	10.3%	2.0%	4.02	3.99	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	2	200	854	218	131	17	1%	1.0	25.6%	15.3%	10.3%	2.0%	4.02	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		196	33	294	1310	338	198	11	17%	1.5	25.8%	15.1%	10.7%	0.8%	3.49	3.28	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	22	200	892	230	135	7	17%	1.5	25.8%	15.1%	10.7%	0.8%	3.49	3.28	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 35 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.33 (+0.08)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.65%	—	×0.860	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.34%	—	×0.900	17.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 16 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.31 (+0.75)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.68%	—	×0.810	20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×1.100	16.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 60 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.12 (+0.17)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.76%	—	×0.860	25.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.49%	—	×0.900	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.125	×1.100	1.16%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 7 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.07 (−0.02)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.860	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.33%	—	×0.900	21.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.079	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 35 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.14 (+0.92)K% 40.9% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.810	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.53%	—	×1.100	19.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.082	×1.200	0.72%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 17 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.63 (+0.73)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.770	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.150	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.197	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 139).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 12 IPFIP 1.36 → 1.67 (+0.31)K% 41.2% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.18%	—	×0.860	35.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.73%	—	×0.900	12.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.965	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.36 → 1.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 53 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.90 (+1.10)K% 35.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.74%	—	×0.740	26.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.62%	—	×1.180	16.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	24.5%	15.2%	2.2%	—	4.58	24.3%	9.8%	95	+0.05	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	80
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	78
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	78
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	77
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	76
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.87	19.0%	4.3%	103	+0.46	3.16	199	75
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	74
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	74
Tristan Garnett L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	26	SU	3.75	24.4%	15.9%	1.3%	.278	4.27	21.5%	8.7%	63	+0.52	2.50	193	74
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	74
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	74
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	74
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	74
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	73
Justin Kelly L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	26	SU	3.56	23.9%	16.0%	0.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	73
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	72
Erik Sabrowski L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	26.8%	15.9%	1.2%	.365	2.83	36.4%	20.9%	78	-0.69	2.56	165	72
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	72
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	72
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	25.1%	15.3%	0.82	4.16
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Scott Sauerbeck ('06)	1.9	55	22.7%	14.2%	0.72	3.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Charlie Kerfeld ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.0	50	22.3%*	12.7%*	0.72*	4.84*