Erik Sabrowski

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	44	0	61	2.79	2.09	37.0%	13.6%	1.8	K 26.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	27	MIX4 levels	42	1	38	2.35	3.73	32.7%	18.8%	0.4	K 34.7% · BB 17.4% · FIP 3.28
2026	28	MIX2 levels	61	1	49	2.57	2.55	37.7%	14.5%	1.2	K 37.4% · BB 14.3% · FIP 2.56
2027PROJ	29	MLBCLE	43	0	45	3.30	3.58	35.6%	14.6%	0.5
2028PROJ89% MLB	30	MLBCLE	39	0	41	3.66	3.86	33.7%	14.4%	0.3
2029PROJ91% MLB	31	MLBCLE	33	0	35	3.95	4.12	32.1%	14.4%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo44

Form1.04 ERA (proj 3.30) · K 33.8% (proj 35.6%) · BB 14.1% (proj 14.6%) · last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsJustin Wilson (age 29) · Ryan Buchter (age 29) · Armando Almanza (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7280vR 88

ERA3.30

FIP3.58

K%35.6%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%20.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD6565

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p8530.8%

p9037.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.251

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	3	29	114	41	12	1	38%	3.6	27.7%	12.1%	15.6%	1.0%	1.86	2.86	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	3	29	114	41	12	1	38%	3.6	36.0%	10.5%	25.4%	0.9%	1.86	1.96	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	20	0	22	92	28	18	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	21.5%	3.1%	1.4%	2.49	4.53	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	20	0	22	92	28	18	1	0%	1.1	30.4%	19.6%	10.9%	1.1%	2.49	3.61	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	26.8%	15.9%	10.9%	1.2%	2.79	3.52	+0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	26.8%	15.9%	10.9%	1.2%	2.79	3.52	+0.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	37.0%	13.6%	23.4%	0.8%	2.79	2.09	+1.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	34.7%	17.4%	17.4%	1.7%	2.35	3.28	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	34.7%	17.4%	17.4%	1.7%	2.35	3.28	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	32.7%	18.8%	13.9%	1.8%	2.35	3.73	+0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	49	207	78	30	3	2%	0.8	37.4%	14.3%	23.2%	1.5%	2.57	2.56	+1.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	49	207	78	30	3	2%	0.8	37.4%	14.3%	23.2%	1.5%	2.57	2.56	+1.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	1	49	207	78	30	3	2%	0.8	37.7%	14.5%	23.2%	1.4%	2.57	2.55	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			101	0	90	371	137	54	5	0%	0.9	36.9%	14.6%	22.4%	1.3%	1.99	2.58	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CLE	43	0	45	190	68	28	4	0%	1.0	35.6%	14.6%	20.9%	2.3%	3.30	3.58	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	44	0	46	194	65	28	5	0%	1.0	33.7%	14.4%	19.3%	2.5%	3.66	3.86	+0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	CLE	37	0	38	162	52	23	5	0%	1.0	32.1%	14.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.95	4.12	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	39	0	41	173	58	25	4	0%	1.1	33.7%	14.4%	19.3%	2.5%	3.66	3.86	+0.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	CLE	33	0	35	148	47	21	4	0%	1.1	32.1%	14.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.95	4.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		173	0	166	692	243	100	14	0%	1.0	35.1%	14.5%	20.6%	2.0%	2.82	3.05	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		208	0	200	832	292	120	17	0%	1.0	35.1%	14.5%	20.6%	2.0%	2.82	3.05	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		175	5	199	843	260	134	12	3%	1.1	30.9%	15.9%	15.0%	1.4%	2.48	3.26	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	5	200	846	261	134	12	3%	1.1	30.9%	15.9%	15.0%	1.4%	2.48	3.26	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 7 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.57 (+0.15)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.860	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×0.900	14.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.093	×1.100	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 37 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.52 (+0.17)K% 31.2% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.18%	—	×0.860	26.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.65%	—	×0.900	15.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.060	×1.100	1.22%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 12 IPFIP -0.95 → -0.02 (+0.92)K% 54.2% → 43.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.17%	—	×0.810	43.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.100	4.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.966	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP -0.95 → -0.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 22 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.53 (+0.93)K% 30.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.810	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.57%	—	×1.100	21.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.909	×1.200	1.44%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 29 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.86 (+0.99)K% 36.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.96%	—	×0.770	27.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.057	×1.250	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Sabrowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.58	35.6%	14.6%	2.3%	—	3.98	33.0%	18.6%	84	+0.40	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	29	SU	3.26	32.3%	13.7%	2.1%	.271	3.40	27.8%	15.9%	113	+0.14	2.49	554	78
Ryan Buchter L 2016 · 2.74 FIP	29	SU	2.74	31.6%	11.3%	1.6%	.219	4.30	24.8%	15.3%	150	+1.56	2.37	296	75
Armando Almanza L 2002 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	30.0%	11.6%	4.2%	.272	5.01	21.8%	12.0%	62	+0.67	2.90	211	72
Scott Sauerbeck L 2001 · 3.04 FIP	29	SU	3.04	28.1%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	3.64	23.6%	11.9%	119	+0.60	2.79	386	71
Zach Phillips L 2016 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	27.4%	11.9%	1.3%	.370	3.20	19.2%	10.6%	86	+0.19	2.33	202	69
Jesse Biddle L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	29	SU	3.35	30.2%	12.6%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	311	69
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	65
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.27	592	65
Darien Núñez L 2021 · 2.65 FIP	28	SU	2.65	35.0%	10.4%	2.1%	.268	6.09	17.4%	-4.8%	14	+3.44	2.48	122	64
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	63
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	62
Mike Dunn L 2014 · 2.82 FIP	29	SU	2.82	27.3%	8.6%	1.7%	.281	3.92	25.3%	14.8%	147	+1.10	2.82	432	62
Brian Fuentes L 2005 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	28.3%	9.3%	1.9%	.273	3.08	26.9%	18.5%	189	+0.16	2.08	602	62
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	61
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	61
Rex Brothers L 2017 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	31.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.333	4.34	29.0%	8.9%	86	+1.24	2.66	437	61
Hunter Cervenka L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.6%	13.1%	1.1%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	194	60
Andrew Chafin L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	30.2%	8.0%	2.8%	.346	2.88	25.7%	18.4%	126	-0.23	2.42	545	60
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	60
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	45	35.1%	14.7%	0.80	2.96
John Rocker ('03)	1.3	51	29.4%	14.5%	0.81	3.42
Al Alburquerque ('17)	1.2	61	27.8%	12.9%	0.62	3.16
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Rob Dibble ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	2.4	68	41.6%*	12.1%*	0.76*	3.34*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*