Erik Sabrowski — OGILVIE

Erik Sabrowski P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7078vR 86

ERA3.23

FIP3.33

K%34.8%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%19.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p9037.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.256

SL+1.3 (15%)

FB+1.1 (66%)

CU (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	3	29	114	41	12	1	38%	3.6	27.7%	12.1%	15.6%	1.0%	1.86	2.86	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	8	3	29	114	41	12	1	38%	3.6	36.0%	10.5%	25.4%	0.9%	1.86	1.96	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	20	0	22	92	28	18	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	21.5%	3.1%	1.4%	2.49	4.53	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	20	0	22	92	28	18	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	21.5%	3.1%	1.4%	2.49	4.53	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	20	0	22	92	28	18	1	0%	1.1	30.4%	19.6%	10.9%	1.1%	2.49	3.61	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	25.9%	15.9%	10.0%	1.2%	2.79	3.60	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	25.9%	15.9%	10.0%	1.2%	2.79	3.60	+0.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	61	265	98	36	2	0%	1.4	37.0%	13.6%	23.4%	0.8%	2.79	2.09	+1.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	34.7%	17.4%	17.4%	1.7%	2.35	3.28	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	34.7%	17.4%	17.4%	1.7%	2.35	3.28	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	42	1	38	165	54	31	3	2%	0.9	32.7%	18.8%	13.9%	1.8%	2.35	3.73	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			95	0	85	349	128	49	5	0%	0.9	36.7%	14.0%	22.6%	1.4%	2.12	2.58	+2.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	55	1	44	185	69	25	3	2%	0.8	37.0%	13.3%	23.8%	1.7%	2.89	2.57	+1.0
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	55	1	44	185	69	25	3	2%	0.8	37.0%	13.3%	23.8%	1.7%	2.89	2.57	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CLE	1	1	1	4	2	1	0	100%	0.7	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CLE	54	0	43	181	67	24	3	0%	0.8	37.0%	13.3%	23.8%	1.7%	2.93	2.56	+1.0
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CLE	54	0	43	181	67	24	3	0%	0.8	37.0%	13.3%	23.8%	1.7%	2.93	2.56	+1.0
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CLE	4	0	5	19	7	3	0	0%	1.2	34.8%	15.1%	19.7%	2.3%	3.23	3.33	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CLE	5	0	5	21	7	3	0	0%	1.0	34.8%	15.1%	19.7%	2.3%	3.23	3.33	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	48	204	76	28	3	—	—	37.1%	13.7%	23.4%	1.7%	2.92	2.64	+1.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	48	201	76	28	3	—	—	37.7%	13.9%	23.8%	1.7%	2.96	2.62	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CLE	50	0	52	220	72	32	5	0%	1.0	32.7%	14.8%	17.9%	2.4%	3.80	3.90	+0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	47	0	49	207	65	30	5	0%	1.0	31.3%	14.6%	16.6%	2.6%	4.02	4.14	+0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	68	31	5	0%	1.0	32.7%	14.8%	17.9%	2.4%	3.80	3.90	+0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	62	29	5	0%	1.0	31.3%	14.6%	16.6%	2.6%	4.02	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	186	774	264	112	16	0%	1.0	34.2%	14.4%	19.8%	2.0%	3.07	3.15	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	834	284	121	17	0%	1.0	34.2%	14.4%	19.8%	2.0%	3.07	3.15	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		169	5	194	821	249	129	12	3%	1.1	30.3%	15.7%	14.6%	1.4%	2.55	3.30	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	5	200	846	256	133	12	3%	1.1	30.3%	15.7%	14.6%	1.4%	2.55	3.30	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Sabrowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	32.7%	16.1%	2.3%	—	4.02	32.0%	17.3%	101	-0.01	—	—	—
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	71
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	70
Justin King L 2023 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	29.7%	19.7%	0.9%	.361	3.83	24.7%	8.9%	100	+0.27	3.26	130	69
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	67
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	67
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	65
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	64
Rex Brothers L 2015 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	27.2%	23.5%	0.5%	.286	4.05	26.4%	9.1%	64	+0.00	3.10	205	63
Jeff Beliveau L 2016 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.2%	13.5%	1.1%	.220	4.25	24.7%	12.5%	92	+1.06	3.19	137	63
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	63
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	62
Will Smith L 2016 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	28.7%	10.2%	1.9%	.283	2.55	35.8%	29.4%	118	-0.48	1.76	464	61
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	61
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	61
Jace Fry L 2021 · 2.93 FIP	28	SU	2.93	31.8%	12.7%	1.7%	.229	3.58	26.5%	15.4%	30	+0.65	2.53	294	61
Miguel Del Pozo L 2021 · 4.10 FIP	28	SU	4.10	30.5%	10.8%	4.0%	.200	3.28	26.2%	19.0%	73	-0.82	2.54	270	61
Jacob Latz L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	27.1%	9.8%	2.0%	.366	3.36	24.6%	14.7%	209	+0.21	2.26	473	60
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	60
Daniel Stumpf L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	28	SU	3.56	25.2%	8.8%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	1.84	238	59
Ben Bowden L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	26.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.4%	118	-0.35	2.83	391	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	32.3%	15.2%	0.95	3.91
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84