Erik Sabrowski
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8190vR 99
ERA3.35
FIP3.47
K%35.9%
BB%16.6%
K-BB%19.3%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p9032.6%
K%
p9040.7%
xwOBA vs
p830.280
SL+1.3 (12%)
FB+1.1 (69%)
CU (19%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 8 | 3 | 29 | 114 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 38% | 3.6 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 1.0% | 1.86 | 2.84 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 8 | 3 | 29 | 114 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 38% | 3.6 | 36.0% | 10.5% | 25.4% | 0.9% | 1.86 | 1.96 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 20 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 21.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 4.62 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 20 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 19.6% | 10.9% | 1.1% | 2.49 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 98 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 98 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 37.0% | 13.6% | 23.4% | 0.8% | 2.79 | 2.09 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 42 | 1 | 38 | 165 | 54 | 31 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 34.7% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 1.7% | 2.35 | 3.28 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 42 | 1 | 38 | 165 | 54 | 31 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 32.7% | 18.8% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 2.35 | 3.73 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 36 | 1 | 28 | 122 | 50 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 0.8 | 40.7% | 16.1% | 24.6% | 2.5% | 3.54 | 3.10 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.47 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.47 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 55 | 237 | 91 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 38.5% | 16.5% | 22.0% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.28 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 55 | 231 | 91 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 39.6% | 17.0% | 22.6% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 74 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.5% | 16.1% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 66 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 15.9% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 69 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.5% | 16.1% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 64 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 15.9% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 0 | 193 | 807 | 284 | 128 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 15.9% | 19.3% | 2.3% | 3.31 | 3.41 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 837 | 295 | 133 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 15.9% | 19.3% | 2.3% | 3.31 | 3.41 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 5 | 178 | 758 | 234 | 131 | 11 | 3% | 1.2 | 30.9% | 17.3% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 3.52 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 6 | 200 | 850 | 262 | 147 | 13 | 3% | 1.2 | 30.9% | 17.3% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Sabrowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 33.2% | 16.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.21 | 32.8% | 16.8% | 101 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 69 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 68 |
| Alex Vesia L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.30 | 33.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .187 | 2.95 | 33.8% | 23.9% | 91 | -0.35 | 1.96 | 382 | 66 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 63 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.09 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.07 | 3.10 | 205 | 63 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 63 |
| Ben Bowden L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 28.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .325 | 4.39 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 101 | -0.06 | 2.89 | 374 | 62 |
| Erik Tolman L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 28.7% | 18.3% | 2.4% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 135 | 62 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 0.9% | .220 | 4.33 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.23 | 3.10 | 137 | 62 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 61 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 61 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.95 | 30.5% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 266 | 61 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 61 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 61 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.91 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .311 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 141 | -0.67 | 3.94 | 470 | 60 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 60 |
| Miguel Del Pozo L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 30.5% | 10.8% | 3.8% | .200 | 3.34 | 26.5% | 19.1% | 73 | -0.66 | 2.54 | 270 | 59 |
| Will Smith L 2025 · 3.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.03 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 2.56 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 59 |
| Nate Lavender L 2024 · 3.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.05 | 36.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 58 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.18 | 29.5% | 14.2% | 5.0% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 33.0% | 16.3% | 0.99 | 4.05 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |