Erik Sabrowski
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA3.28
FIP4.23
xFIP2.71
SIERA2.15
K%28.3%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%14.1%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL2020
CMD6565
K†7070
SL+1.3 (12%)
FB+1.1 (67%)
CU (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 8 | 3 | 29 | 114 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.0% | 1.86 | 2.86 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 20 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 24.7% | 21.5% | 1.5% | 2.49 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 44 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 98 | 36 | 2 | 27.4% | 18.5% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 42 | 1 | 38 | 165 | 54 | 31 | 3 | 34.7% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.23 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 10 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CLE | 17 | — | 17 | 72 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 30.5% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.08 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 26 | 106 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 33.9% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 2.71 | 2.65 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 25 | — | 25 | 107 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 30.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 4 | 159 | 670 | 198 | 114 | 9 | 29.6% | 17.1% | 1.4% | 2.43 | 3.53 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 5 | 200 | 841 | 249 | 143 | 11 | 29.6% | 17.1% | 1.4% | 2.43 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Sabrowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 30.5% | 14.5% | 2.4% | — | 4.00 | 30.7% | 17.1% | 25 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 81 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 79 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 76 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 75 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .220 | 4.27 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.08 | 3.19 | 137 | 75 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 74 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 74 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.08 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.04 | 3.16 | 205 | 74 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 73 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 73 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 72 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 72 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 71 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.