Fernando Sanchez
P
San Antonio Missions
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%10.4%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 13 | 1 | 33 | 143 | 41 | 22 | 0 | 19.5% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 4.64 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 15 | 10 | 32 | 144 | 46 | 20 | 2 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 25 | 6 | 76 | 356 | 82 | 33 | 10 | 17.0% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 6.54 | 4.86 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 24 | 11 | 76 | 341 | 88 | 28 | 2 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 0.8% | 3.42 | 3.08 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 36 | 0 | 74 | 301 | 68 | 32 | 2 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 2.80 | 3.84 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 4 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 13 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 54 | 34 | 7 | 18.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 74 | 320 | 67 | 41 | 7 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 5.07 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 55 | 33 | 7 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 56 | 32 | 7 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 56 | 32 | 7 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 44 | 28 | 7 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 41 | 27 | 7 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 5.20 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 35 | 25 | 7 | 17.6% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 29 | 301 | 1331 | 255 | 163 | 21 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 3.92 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 19 | 200 | 885 | 170 | 108 | 14 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 3.92 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fernando Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 18.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.69 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 201 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 90 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 88 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 88 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 87 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 186 | 86 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 86 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 85 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 85 |
| Russell Smith L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.98 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.3% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 175 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 16.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 104 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.68 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | .352 | 4.78 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | +0.10 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.70 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.22 | 4.70 | 137 | 84 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .228 | 4.11 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 105 | +0.13 | 3.66 | 330 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 84 |
| Jeff Kinley L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.95 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .300 | 4.05 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 104 | +0.10 | 3.64 | 232 | 84 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 84 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.32 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 128 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.