Fernando Sanchez

P San Antonio Missions

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	24	11	76	3.42	2.24	25.8%	8.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.09
2025	24	MIX2 levels	36	0	74	2.80	2.91	22.6%	10.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.84
2026	25	MIX2 levels	20	15	66	5.45	4.28	23.2%	15.5%	—	K 19.0% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	26	MLBSD	1	0	1	5.54	5.54	16.4%	15.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSD	18	0	19	5.44	5.46	17.0%	15.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSD	24	0	25	5.42	5.46	17.4%	14.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Irwin Delgado (age 26) · Dan Meyer (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%16.4%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%0.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	13	1	33	143	41	22	0	8%	2.5	19.5%	19.2%	0.3%	0.0%	4.64	3.89	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	13	1	33	143	41	22	0	8%	2.5	28.7%	15.4%	13.3%	0.0%	4.64	2.62	—
2021	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	1	3	12	2	4	0	100%	2.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	0.0%	6.75	5.91	—
2021	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	1	3	12	2	4	0	100%	2.7	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	0.0%	6.75	6.10	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	10	32	144	46	20	2	67%	2.2	24.8%	11.8%	13.0%	3.0%	4.73	4.17	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	10	32	144	46	20	2	67%	2.2	31.9%	13.9%	18.1%	1.4%	4.73	2.91	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	25	6	76	356	82	33	10	24%	3.0	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	3.3%	6.54	4.83	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	25	6	76	356	82	33	10	24%	3.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.8%	2.8%	6.54	3.96	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	11	76	341	88	28	2	46%	3.2	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	0.8%	3.42	3.09	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	11	76	341	88	28	2	46%	3.2	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	0.8%	3.42	3.09	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	11	76	341	88	28	2	46%	3.2	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	0.6%	3.42	2.24	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	74	301	68	32	2	0%	2.1	15.8%	11.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.80	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	74	301	68	32	2	0%	2.1	15.8%	11.8%	4.0%	1.1%	2.80	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	74	301	68	32	2	0%	2.1	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	0.7%	2.80	2.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	66	297	69	46	6	75%	3.3	19.0%	16.2%	2.8%	2.4%	5.45	4.84	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	66	297	69	46	6	75%	3.3	19.0%	16.2%	2.8%	2.4%	5.45	4.84	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	66	297	69	46	6	75%	3.3	23.2%	15.5%	7.7%	2.0%	5.45	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SD	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.4%	15.7%	0.7%	2.7%	5.54	5.54	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	49	209	36	32	6	0%	1.1	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	2.7%	5.44	5.46	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	39	0	41	174	30	26	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.8%	2.5%	2.9%	5.42	5.46	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	SD	35	0	37	156	27	23	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.8%	2.7%	3.0%	5.47	5.53	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	18	0	19	80	14	12	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	15.1%	1.9%	2.7%	5.44	5.46	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	24	0	25	106	18	16	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.5%	2.9%	5.42	5.46	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	19	16	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.7%	3.0%	5.47	5.53	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	292	51	44	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.11	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	127	23	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.9%	2.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		134	44	360	1594	299	204	29	33%	2.7	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	1.8%	4.58	4.14	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	24	200	886	166	113	16	33%	2.7	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	1.8%	4.58	4.14	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 49 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.61 (+0.80)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.78%	—	×0.810	20.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.11%	—	×1.100	16.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 17 IPFIP 5.45 → 5.57 (+0.12)K% 15.3% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.28%	—	×0.860	13.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.45 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 63 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.84 (+0.74)K% 20.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.770	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.150	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷0.941	×1.250	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 11 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.56 (+0.69)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 48 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.21 (+0.76)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.150	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.45%	÷0.916	×1.250	0.62%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 27 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.87 (+0.95)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.740	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.14%	—	×1.180	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷0.953	×1.300	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 76 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.83 (+0.96)K% 23.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.03%	—	×0.740	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.27%	—	×1.180	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.121	×1.300	3.26%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Padres · 20 IPFIP 2.50 → 4.17 (+1.67)K% 36.5% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.47%	—	×0.680	24.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.250	11.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.081	×1.400	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	16.4%	15.7%	2.7%	—	5.48	17.3%	2.3%	128	-0.06	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	80
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	76
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	75
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	75
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	75
Graham Osman L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	23	SU	4.36	17.8%	19.0%	0.6%	.307	5.84	16.4%	-0.4%	98	+1.48	4.36	164	73
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	73
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	72
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	72
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	72
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	71
Matthew Spann L 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SW	5.15	15.1%	16.9%	2.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	173	70
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	68
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	68
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	67
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	67
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	67
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	67
Andrew Lorraine L 2000 · 4.98 FIP	27	SW	4.98	15.9%	11.6%	3.2%	.290	8.88	15.4%	6.2%	12	+3.90	4.11	163	67
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	16.9%	15.2%	1.08	5.48
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*