Graham Osman — OGILVIE

Graham Osman P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138147vR 155

ERA6.40

FIP6.40

K%14.6%

BB%20.2%

K-BB%-5.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	10	40	15	5	0	0%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.93	1.52	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	10	40	15	5	0	0%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.93	1.52	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	10	40	15	5	0	0%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.93	1.55	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	17.8%	19.0%	-1.2%	0.6%	4.50	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	17.8%	19.0%	-1.2%	0.6%	4.50	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	23.8%	16.2%	7.6%	0.7%	4.50	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	15.1%	17.4%	-2.2%	3.4%	4.98	5.87	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	15.1%	17.4%	-2.2%	3.4%	4.98	5.87	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	19.6%	15.1%	4.5%	3.0%	4.98	5.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	4.0%	7.78	5.80	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	4.0%	7.78	5.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CIN	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	3.2%	7.78	4.64	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	4	5	1	0%	1.1	14.6%	20.2%	-5.6%	2.9%	6.40	6.40	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	48	244	55	35	8	—	—	22.5%	14.5%	8.0%	3.2%	7.60	5.88	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	67	0	70	296	48	56	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	19.0%	-2.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.13	-1.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	48	54	9	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.4%	-1.7%	3.0%	6.02	6.03	-1.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	48	51	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.1%	-1.2%	3.1%	5.99	6.03	-1.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	45	49	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.1%	-1.3%	3.2%	6.05	6.12	-1.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	20	24	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	19.0%	-2.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.13	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	30	33	5	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.4%	-1.7%	3.0%	6.02	6.03	-0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	48	0	50	211	36	38	6	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.1%	-1.2%	3.1%	5.99	6.03	-0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	52	220	37	40	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.1%	-1.3%	3.2%	6.05	6.12	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	743	124	136	23	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	3.1%	6.04	5.69	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	155	26	0%	1.1	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	3.1%	6.04	5.69	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		87	6	173	824	148	143	20	7%	2.0	18.0%	17.3%	0.6%	2.4%	5.24	5.08	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	7	200	951	171	165	23	7%	2.0	18.0%	17.3%	0.6%	2.4%	5.24	5.08	-3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Graham Osman (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.40	14.6%	20.2%	2.9%	—	6.06	16.5%	-2.0%	206	-0.34	—	—	—
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	84
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	83
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	81
Sean Keselica L 2018 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	15.9%	18.5%	2.2%	.226	4.47	18.0%	3.5%	52	-0.86	2.79	235	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	79
R.C. Orlan L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	25	SU	5.25	14.8%	20.2%	1.5%	.243	4.48	18.2%	9.9%	81	-0.77	1.71	206	78
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	77
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	77
Josh D. Smith L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	11.5%	17.1%	1.8%	.258	3.94	19.9%	8.2%	222	-1.34	3.17	335	77
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	76
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	76
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	74
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.1%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	73
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	73
Levi Prater L 2022 · 6.76 FIP	23	SU	6.76	15.8%	23.5%	3.6%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	6.76	110	72
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	72
Luis De Paula L 2016 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	16.4%	16.2%	2.9%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	125	71
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	71
Frank Garces L 2015 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	16.7%	13.3%	4.2%	.267	4.32	16.9%	8.9%	114	-1.33	4.32	306	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	16.2%	18.8%	1.17	6.12
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91