Graham Osman

P Dayton Dragons

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	4	66	4.50	3.54	23.8%	16.2%	—	K 17.8% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.36
2025	24	A+CIN	26	2	56	4.98	5.24	19.6%	15.1%	—	K 15.1% · BB 17.4% · FIP 5.87
2026	25	A+CIN	30	0	42	7.78	5.00	23.5%	13.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 15.9% · FIP 5.80
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	—	—	0	6.29	6.29	15.6%	19.1%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCIN	14	0	15	6.11	6.13	16.4%	18.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCIN	20	0	21	6.04	6.08	16.8%	17.6%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFabian Williamson (age 26) · Matt Mikulski (age 25) · Ty Madrigal (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136144vR 153

ERA6.29

FIP6.29

K%15.6%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%-3.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	10	40	15	5	0	0%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.93	1.52	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	10	40	15	5	0	0%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.93	1.55	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	17.8%	19.0%	-1.2%	0.6%	4.50	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	17.8%	19.0%	-1.2%	0.6%	4.50	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	4	66	302	72	49	2	16%	2.6	23.8%	16.2%	7.6%	0.7%	4.50	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	15.1%	17.4%	-2.2%	3.4%	4.98	5.87	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	15.1%	17.4%	-2.2%	3.4%	4.98	5.87	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	2	56	265	52	40	8	8%	2.2	19.6%	15.1%	4.5%	3.0%	4.98	5.24	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	4.0%	7.78	5.80	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	4.0%	7.78	5.80	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	30	0	42	217	51	30	7	0%	1.4	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	3.2%	7.78	5.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	19.1%	-3.4%	3.1%	6.29	6.29	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	177	29	32	6	0%	1.1	16.4%	18.2%	-1.8%	3.2%	6.11	6.13	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	33	0	35	148	25	26	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.6%	-0.9%	3.2%	6.04	6.08	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	0	15	63	10	12	2	0%	1.1	16.4%	18.2%	-1.8%	3.2%	6.11	6.13	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	20	0	21	89	15	16	3	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.6%	-0.9%	3.2%	6.04	6.08	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	152	25	27	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	17.9%	-1.2%	3.2%	6.07	5.72	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	150	28	0%	1.1	16.6%	17.9%	-1.2%	3.2%	6.07	5.72	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		87	6	173	824	148	143	20	7%	2.0	18.0%	17.3%	0.6%	2.4%	5.24	5.08	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	7	200	951	171	165	23	7%	2.0	18.0%	17.3%	0.6%	2.4%	5.24	5.08	-3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 42 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.80 (+1.16)K% 23.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.50%	—	×0.770	18.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.82%	—	×1.150	15.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 56 IPFIP 5.01 → 5.87 (+0.85)K% 19.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.62%	—	×0.770	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×1.150	17.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.124	×1.250	3.36%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 49 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.88 (+0.92)K% 25.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.740	18.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.84%	—	×1.180	18.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.078	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 17 IPFIP 4.98 → 5.65 (+0.68)K% 19.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.770	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.28%	—	×1.150	19.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷1.285	×1.250	2.40%

Result: FIP 4.98 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 9 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.92 (+1.08)K% 35.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.740	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.180	15.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.060	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Graham Osman (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.29	15.6%	19.1%	3.1%	—	6.11	16.6%	-1.4%	77	-0.18	—	—	—
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	86
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	83
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	78
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	78
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	78
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	77
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	75
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	75
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	73
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	72
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	72
Mike Matthews L 2000 · 5.76 FIP	26	SU	5.76	14.8%	14.8%	3.7%	.361	4.07	17.6%	8.5%	199	-1.69	3.64	239	72
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	72
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	314	72
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	71
Luis De Paula L 2016 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	16.4%	16.2%	2.9%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	125	71
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	70
Tommy Thorpe L 2017 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	17.6%	13.4%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	232	70
Hobbs Johnson L 2016 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	12.3%	17.6%	1.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	143	70
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	16.2%	18.4%	1.23	6.17
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*