Trey Ebel — OGILVIE

Trey EbelSS Wilson Warbirds

Age 18 R/R A HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .317 / .324

PA75

HR1

K%27

BB%12

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$4M	+$1M
2037	Arb-3	$11M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$30M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	A	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	42	8	1	0	1	16	13	1	2	1	190	424	286	709	95	250	22	27	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	46	8	1	0	1	12	18	1	2	1	174	356	261	617	87	237	31	20	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	46	8	1	0	1	12	18	1	2	1	174	356	261	617	87	259	31	20	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	A RAW	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	42	8	1	0	1	16	13	1	2	1	190	424	286	709	95	250	22	27	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	46	8	1	0	1	12	18	1	2	1	174	356	261	617	87	237	31	20	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	—	59	46	8	1	0	1	12	18	1	2	1	174	356	261	617	87	237	31	20	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	MIL	0%	169	145	32	5	1	3	20	46	2	3	1	220	320	327	647	108	295	27	12	297	87	-3	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	MIL	34%	190	164	37	6	1	4	22	51	2	3	1	223	324	336	660	113	297	27	12	302	90	-2	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	MIL	48%	329	284	65	10	2	7	38	86	4	6	2	226	326	344	671	118	298	26	12	306	93	-3	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.7
2030	21	MLB MLE	MIL	54%	435	377	86	14	2	9	49	113	6	8	3	229	328	351	679	122	298	26	11	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+5	+9	1.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	509	440	102	17	3	11	57	130	7	9	3	231	329	357	686	126	299	26	11	312	97	-2	+1	-1	+5	+11	1.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	MIL	58%	560	485	114	19	3	13	62	142	8	10	4	233	330	362	692	129	299	25	11	314	98	-1	+0	-1	+6	+12	1.7
2033	24	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	592	513	121	20	3	14	66	150	8	11	4	234	331	363	694	130	300	25	11	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.0
2034	25	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	611	530	123	20	3	14	68	155	8	11	4	234	331	364	694	130	300	25	11	315	99	-1	+1	+0	+7	+13	2.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	621	539	126	21	3	14	69	157	8	11	4	234	330	363	694	130	300	25	11	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+7	+13	2.1
2036	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	622	539	126	21	3	14	70	158	8	11	4	233	330	361	690	128	299	25	11	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+7	+13	2.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	618	536	124	20	3	14	69	159	8	10	4	231	328	356	684	125	299	26	11	311	96	-3	+0	-1	+7	+13	1.8
2038	29	MLB MLE	MIL	53%	608	527	121	20	3	13	68	158	8	9	5	228	325	350	675	122	298	26	11	307	94	-4	-0	-1	+7	+13	1.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	MIL	53%	598	520	117	19	3	12	66	157	7	8	5	226	322	342	664	117	296	26	11	303	91	-6	-0	-2	+6	+13	1.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	584	508	113	18	3	11	64	156	7	7	7	222	317	333	650	111	293	27	11	297	87	-9	-1	-3	+6	+13	0.6
2041	32	MLB MLE	MIL	59%	566	493	107	17	2	10	61	153	7	6	13	217	311	321	632	104	290	27	11	290	82	-12	-4	-3	+6	+12	-0.1
2028	19	MLB CTX	MIL	34%	65	56	12	2	0	1	8	17	1	1	0	221	322	335	657	114	293	26	12	300	90	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	MIL	48%	159	138	31	5	1	3	18	42	2	3	1	224	325	343	667	119	294	26	11	305	93	-1	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	MIL	54%	236	204	46	7	1	5	27	61	3	4	2	227	326	350	676	123	294	26	11	308	95	-1	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	288	250	58	9	2	7	32	74	4	5	2	229	327	356	683	127	295	26	11	310	97	-1	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.8
2032	23	MLB CTX	MIL	58%	322	279	65	10	2	8	36	82	4	6	2	231	328	361	689	130	295	25	11	312	98	-1	+0	-0	+3	+7	1.0
2033	24	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	337	291	67	10	2	8	38	85	5	6	2	232	329	362	691	131	296	25	11	313	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.1
2034	25	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	347	300	70	11	2	8	39	88	5	6	2	232	329	363	692	131	296	25	11	314	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2035	26	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	351	304	70	11	2	8	39	89	5	6	2	231	329	363	691	131	295	25	11	313	99	-0	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2036	27	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	345	298	69	11	2	8	39	88	5	6	2	230	328	360	688	129	295	26	11	312	98	-1	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.1
2037	28	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	339	294	67	10	2	8	38	87	4	5	2	229	326	355	681	126	294	26	11	309	96	-1	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.0
2038	29	MLB CTX	MIL	53%	325	282	64	10	2	7	36	84	4	5	2	226	323	349	672	123	293	26	11	306	94	-2	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.8
2039	30	MLB CTX	MIL	53%	315	273	61	9	1	7	35	83	4	4	3	223	320	341	661	118	292	26	11	301	91	-3	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.6
2040	31	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	330	287	63	10	1	7	36	88	4	4	4	220	315	331	647	112	289	27	11	296	87	-5	-1	-1	+4	+7	0.3
2041	32	MLB CTX	MIL	59%	335	292	62	9	1	6	36	91	4	4	8	215	310	319	629	105	286	27	11	289	82	-7	-2	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4094	3548	805	124	21	91	457	1059	54	65	34	227	324	351	675	124	295	26	11	307	94	-26	-1	-8	+44	+89	10.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	127	20	3	14	73	168	9	10	5	226	325	346	671	121	294	26	11	307	94	-4	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7577	6566	1503	245	37	162	850	1963	98	123	64	229	326	352	678	123	299	26	11	308	94	-49	-1	-16	+81	+163	18.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	129	21	3	14	73	168	8	11	5	229	326	352	677	123	299	26	11	308	94	-4	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.3	4,171	89	67	230	323	353	+45	+0	13.3	11.1
/162	664	14	11	+7.1	+0.0	2.1	pk7: 9
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trey Ebel (OGILVIE)	18	25→55	25→42	50→47	60	218/317/324	107	295	1	1	27%	12%	87	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Harry Ford 2022 · A	19	45→53	47→45	52→55	43	223/289/361	138	311	13	9	31%	8%	84	+0.1	221/332/349	128	309	12	16	29%	12%	98	+1.2	226/338/346	120	294	12	19	24%	12%	96	+0.9
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
●Daniel Robertson 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→45	52→40	49	227/301/367	141	268	12	6	20%	8%	90	+0.6	245/312/360	115	307	10	3	22%	7%	92	+0.7	256/329/366	110	321	8	2	21%	8%	96	+0.9
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	43→51	42→50	50→55	51	209/299/315	106	278	8	12	26%	10%	77	-0.3	225/289/347	122	328	11	16	32%	7%	80	-0.1	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Alexander Albertus 2024 · A	19	49	41→45	47→45	61	232/339/328	96	275	9	11	18%	13%	95	+1.0	228/315/321	93	292	7	9	22%	10%	84	+0.2	225/311/319	93	294	7	6	24%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
●Cheslor Cuthbert 2012 · A	19	46→56	44→50	49→45	42	228/282/343	116	302	12	4	28%	6%	76	-0.4	222/267/325	103	278	10	6	23%	6%	66	-1.1	255/309/403	148	298	17	1	20%	7%	101	+0.7
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	43→53	38→50	50→40	55	201/288/280	79	244	5	8	19%	10%	65	-1.2	227/293/354	127	281	14	4	23%	8%	84	+0.1	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps