Aron Estrada — OGILVIE

Aron Estrada2B Chesapeake Baysox

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION316 act + 210 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .283 / .376

PA210

HR6

SB6

K%21

BB%5

BABIP280

ISO137

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$12M	+$10M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+2.2	$12M	+$8M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$25M		$68M	+$53M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	149	47	13	3	4	16	35	5	4	3	315	400	523	923	208	377	20	9	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	207	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	70	12	3	2	1	8	17	3	5	0	171	284	314	598	143	212	21	10	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	486	447	110	11	4	9	26	104	9	39	13	246	301	349	650	103	299	21	5	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	486	433	124	19	5	9	40	78	9	39	13	286	359	416	775	129	329	16	8	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	443	403	104	14	7	6	30	96	6	34	6	258	319	372	691	114	321	22	7	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	443	389	112	16	8	10	44	75	6	34	6	288	369	447	816	159	331	17	10	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	BAL	—	316	299	75	12	1	13	12	74	1	5	3	251	282	428	710	177	288	23	4	299	87	-5	-0	+0	+1	+9	0.5
YTD	21	AA	BAL	—	316	293	81	14	1	14	18	57	1	5	3	276	321	474	795	198	298	18	6	345	122	+8	-0	+0	+1	+9	1.8
ROS	21	AA	BAL	2%	210	196	47	7	1	6	11	45	1	6	2	239	283	376	659	137	285	21	5	297	85	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		289	25	0	296	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	AA	BAL	—	320	303	76	12	1	13	12	75	1	5	3	251	282	426	707	175	289	23	4	299	87	-5	-0	+0	+1	+9	0.5
TOT	21	AA	BAL	—	526	495	122	19	2	19	23	119	2	11	5	246	282	408	690	161	285	23	4	298	86	-8	+0	+0	+2	+15	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	44%	531	493	122	19	4	16	29	111	4	13	4	247	295	400	694	152	284	21	5	302	90	-6	+1	+0	+2	+15	1.2
2028	23	MLB	BAL	61%	561	519	128	20	4	17	33	116	4	14	5	247	297	399	696	152	286	21	6	310	95	-3	+1	+0	+2	+16	1.6
2029	24	MLB	BAL	66%	589	543	137	22	4	19	36	120	5	14	5	252	305	413	717	160	287	20	6	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+2	+17	1.9
2030	25	MLB	BAL	69%	604	556	140	22	4	20	38	123	5	14	5	252	306	414	719	162	287	20	6	317	101	+1	+1	+0	+2	+17	2.1
2031	26	MLB	BAL	70%	612	563	141	22	4	20	39	124	5	14	5	250	305	410	715	160	287	20	6	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+2	+17	2.2
2032	27	MLB	BAL	69%	611	562	141	22	4	20	39	124	5	14	5	251	305	411	716	160	287	20	6	318	102	+1	+1	+0	+2	+17	2.2
2033	28	MLB	BAL	68%	606	556	139	22	4	20	40	124	5	13	4	250	306	412	718	162	286	20	7	317	101	+1	+1	-1	+2	+17	2.1
2034	29	MLB	BAL	67%	596	547	136	21	4	19	39	123	5	12	4	249	305	406	710	157	285	21	7	315	99	-0	+1	-1	+2	+17	1.8
2035	30	MLB	BAL	66%	586	537	134	21	4	19	39	123	5	11	4	250	306	410	716	160	284	21	7	312	97	-2	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.6
2036	31	MLB	BAL	71%	572	525	128	20	3	18	38	122	4	10	3	244	300	396	696	152	282	21	7	308	94	-4	+1	-3	+2	+16	1.3
2037	32	MLB	BAL	74%	553	508	121	18	3	17	36	120	4	8	3	238	294	386	680	148	279	22	7	303	90	-6	+0	-4	+2	+16	0.8
2038	33	MLB	BAL	77%	523	480	112	16	3	15	34	116	4	7	2	233	290	373	662	140	275	22	7	296	84	-9	+1	-4	+2	+15	0.4
2039	34	MLB	BAL	72%	476	439	100	14	3	13	31	109	3	5	2	228	283	362	645	134	269	23	7	287	78	-12	+0	-5	+2	+13	-0.2
2040	35	MLB	BAL	68%	420	387	84	11	2	11	27	99	3	4	1	217	273	341	614	124	263	24	6	277	70	-14	+0	-6	+1	+12	-0.6
2027	22	MLB	BAL	44%	234	217	55	9	2	7	13	49	2	6	2	253	302	410	712	157	288	21	6	302	89	-3	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.5
2028	23	MLB	BAL	61%	343	317	80	13	2	11	20	71	3	8	3	252	303	410	713	158	290	21	6	309	95	-2	+0	+0	+1	+10	0.9
2029	24	MLB	BAL	66%	391	361	92	15	3	13	24	80	3	9	3	255	307	421	728	166	291	20	6	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+1	+11	1.3
2030	25	MLB	BAL	69%	415	383	98	16	3	14	26	84	3	10	3	256	308	423	731	167	291	20	6	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+1	+12	1.4
2031	26	MLB	BAL	70%	428	394	101	16	3	15	27	87	4	10	3	256	311	426	737	170	291	20	6	317	101	+0	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.5
2032	27	MLB	BAL	69%	421	388	100	16	3	15	27	86	3	10	3	258	311	430	741	173	291	20	6	317	101	+0	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.5
2033	28	MLB	BAL	68%	415	382	98	16	3	14	27	85	3	9	3	257	311	424	735	168	290	20	7	316	100	+0	+1	-0	+1	+12	1.4
2034	29	MLB	BAL	67%	398	366	92	15	2	13	26	82	3	8	3	251	306	410	716	158	290	21	7	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+1	+11	1.2
2035	30	MLB	BAL	66%	385	354	89	14	2	13	25	81	3	7	2	251	306	412	719	161	288	21	6	312	97	-1	+1	-1	+1	+11	1.0
2036	31	MLB	BAL	71%	405	372	91	14	2	13	27	86	3	7	2	245	301	398	699	153	286	21	7	307	93	-3	+1	-2	+1	+11	0.9
2037	32	MLB	BAL	74%	411	378	91	14	2	13	27	89	3	6	2	241	297	392	688	151	283	22	7	302	89	-5	+0	-3	+1	+12	0.6
2038	33	MLB	BAL	77%	401	369	87	13	2	12	26	89	3	5	2	236	291	379	671	144	279	22	6	295	84	-7	+0	-3	+1	+11	0.3
2039	34	MLB	BAL	72%	344	317	73	10	2	10	22	78	2	4	1	230	284	369	654	139	273	23	6	286	77	-9	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.1
2040	35	MLB	BAL	68%	285	263	59	8	2	8	18	67	2	3	1	224	279	361	640	137	267	24	6	276	69	-10	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5280	4865	1207	189	33	171	335	1115	40	102	33	248	302	406	708	158	287	21	6	307	93	-41	+7	-18	+19	+150	11.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	148	23	4	21	41	137	5	13	4	247	301	404	705	157	286	21	6	307	93	-5	+1	-2	+2	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	9234	8480	2083	318	67	270	589	1951	85	241	76	246	301	394	696	149	287	21	6	307	93	-71	+18	-25	+33	+262	22.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	147	22	5	19	41	137	6	17	5	246	301	395	697	149	288	21	6	307	93	-5	+1	-2	+2	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	207	+21	-0	—	—	+5	2.6
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	124	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	85	21	1	2	1	11	13	1	8	5	247	340	341	681	94	278	13	11	310	95	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	348	103	18	3	8	29	65	8	31	8	296	364	434	798	138	342	17	7	355	130	+13	+3	—	—	+11	2.8
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	100	30	3	1	5	9	17	0	4	0	300	358	500	858	200	316	15	8	374	144	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	289	82	13	7	5	35	58	6	30	6	284	373	429	802	145	336	17	11	357	131	+12	+4	—	—	+9	2.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,282	165	104	245	296	399	+19	+0	12.7	11.1
	/162	664	21	13	245	296	399	+2.4	+0.0	1.6	pk7: 10
#4Vinny Castillalast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,579 PA	7	3,579	117	11	253	299	421	-2	+14	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	22	2	253	299	421	-0.3	+2.5	2.0	pk7: 11
#5Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aron Estrada (OGILVIE)	21	48	46	55	40	246/282/408	161	285	19	11	23%	4%	86	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	46→51	44→50	56→60	43	227/276/361	134	289	9	20	24%	6%	75	-0.0	233/268/362	129	287	11	25	22%	4%	72	-0.2	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	53→59	44→45	51→55	41	260/292/379	119	303	12	19	19%	4%	86	+0.8	248/278/327	79	298	7	11	18%	4%	66	-0.6	270/301/382	112	304	12	11	15%	4%	91	+0.7
●Andrés Giménez 2020 · AA	21	47→57	42→50	53→55	40	229/283/342	113	293	8	24	24%	5%	73	-0.1	247/306/388	141	310	14	23	24%	5%	95	+1.4	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	44→54	46→45	50	39	219/275/352	134	288	13	16	28%	5%	73	-0.1	229/293/355	126	281	12	15	22%	7%	82	+0.5	229/300/349	120	276	11	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	48→57	42→45	55→50	42	234/281/335	101	294	10	21	23%	5%	71	-0.3	248/300/349	101	297	9	14	18%	6%	82	+0.5	251/308/343	93	292	7	12	16%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Nick Franklin 2012 · AA	21	44→50	46→50	53→50	41	221/269/350	128	285	15	15	28%	6%	69	-0.4	236/295/369	133	302	13	12	25%	8%	85	+0.7	237/304/370	133	299	13	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8
●Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	49→55	42→55	57→55	47	235/295/353	118	286	8	25	21%	7%	81	+0.4	233/300/361	128	284	12	14	21%	8%	85	+0.7	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
●Brett Lawrie 2011 · AA	21	50→55	44→55	56→55	42	244/288/385	142	310	9	18	24%	5%	86	+0.8	260/313/418	158	306	15	17	19%	6%	106	+2.2	263/322/423	159	298	17	16	17%	7%	108	+1.9
✕Fernando Flores 2012 · AAA	20	50	42→40	57→40	44	244/295/350	106	294	9	20	20%	6%	80	+0.4	235/264/319	84	285	6	8	19%	4%	59	-1.1	254/282/343	88	302	6	2	18%	3%	70	-0.2
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	47→54	44→50	61→55	44	226/282/354	129	300	9	28	27%	7%	76	+0.1	240/293/376	136	286	14	16	21%	7%	86	+0.8	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕José Rodríguez 2023 · AA	22	50→52	46→50	57→55	43	250/286/381	131	291	13	28	19%	5%	85	+0.7	227/260/350	123	283	14	26	25%	4%	66	-0.6	218/247/333	116	273	15	27	26%	3%	52	-0.7
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	47→53	45→50	55	52	228/311/364	135	289	10	21	23%	10%	92	+1.2	235/322/388	153	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.9	232/325/392	160	298	16	24	26%	10%	101	+1.1
●Orlando Arcia 2016 · AA	21	53→56	41→55	54→55	43	253/289/364	111	300	6	19	18%	4%	80	+0.4	242/283/356	114	297	10	16	21%	5%	76	+0.1	245/305/406	162	273	21	3	19%	8%	97	+1.0
✕Efrain Contreras 2008 · A	21	48	45	53→55	45	236/301/354	118	277	12	16	20%	6%	85	+0.7	212/270/304	92	278	8	10	25%	5%	59	-1.1	184/237/253	70	259	5	6	30%	5%	29	-1.1
✕Roman Quinn 2014 · A	21	44→53	45	56→65	41	219/275/335	116	290	13	26	29%	6%	69	-0.4	241/299/341	100	325	9	33	27%	7%	80	+0.4	244/301/381	137	331	12	48	28%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Vidal Bruján 2019 · A	21	54→58	42→45	57→65	50	261/320/376	115	304	9	27	17%	8%	97	+1.5	239/295/347	108	287	9	37	19%	7%	79	+0.3	214/288/314	100	265	7	24	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Ronny Simon 2021 · A	21	46→54	41→50	52→55	46	218/278/329	112	273	6	13	22%	7%	68	-0.5	210/261/359	149	274	18	19	29%	6%	69	-0.4	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
●Rougned Odor 2014 · AA	20	48→52	44→60	52→50	40	234/276/356	122	284	10	18	21%	4%	74	-0.1	250/292/412	162	286	17	12	19%	4%	96	+1.5	256/296/443	186	285	21	10	18%	4%	103	+2.0
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2014 · AA	22	49→48	46→60	56→55	40	241/282/374	132	316	12	21	27%	5%	81	+0.4	218/258/367	149	296	15	22	31%	5%	69	-0.4	218/266/399	181	293	20	14	32%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Leo German 2014 · AAA	21	46→56	44→45	50→55	37	225/274/344	119	304	12	16	29%	5%	70	-0.3	227/278/336	109	290	11	22	25%	4%	70	-0.3	283/316/374	92	367	8	23	24%	3%	90	+0.6