Aron Estrada — OGILVIE

Aron Estrada2B Chesapeake Baysox

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +8%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2032

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .293 / .353

PA320

HR6

SB8

K%21

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40↗49

PWR

40↗46

SPD

55→55

FLD

45↗50

EYE

41↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.2	$21M	+$17M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.0	$20M	+$13M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+1.8	$18M	+$9M
Totals		$23M		$112M	+$89M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	174	149	47	13	3	4	16	35	5	4	3	.315	.400	.523	.923	.208	.377	20	9	.384	152	+10	-0	+0	+1	+5	1.6
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	81	70	12	3	2	1	8	17	3	5	0	.171	.284	.314	.598	.143	.212	21	10	.243	44	-5	+1	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2024	19	A	2 teams	486	448	110	11	4	9	25	104	9	39	13	.246	.299	.348	.647	.103	.298	21	5	.283	75	-14	+3	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2025	20	A+	2 teams	443	406	101	13	7	7	27	96	6	34	6	.249	.305	.367	.672	.118	.306	22	6	.295	84	-8	+4	+0	+2	+13	1.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	66	61	11	2	0	1	3	18	1	0	1	.180	.231	.262	.493	.082	.233	27	5	.221	27	-5	-0	+0	+0	+2	-0.4
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	254	233	54	8	2	5	16	57	3	8	3	.232	.290	.348	.637	.116	.279	22	6	.282	74	-7	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.1
TOT	21	MLB	BAL	320	294	65	10	2	6	19	75	4	8	4	.221	.278	.330	.608	.109	.274	23	6	.269	64	-13	+0	-0	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 12%	BAL	516	468	112	16	5	12	37	94	6	17	5	.239	.303	.372	.675	.132	.272	18	7	.300	88	-7	+1	-1	+2	+15	1.0
2028	23	MLB 29%	BAL	559	504	122	18	5	14	43	101	7	17	5	.242	.310	.381	.691	.139	.274	18	8	.308	94	-4	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.5
2029	24	MLB 46%	BAL	588	529	129	20	5	15	47	105	7	17	5	.244	.314	.386	.700	.142	.275	18	8	.313	98	-2	+1	-1	+2	+17	1.8
2030	25	MLB 61%	BAL	604	542	132	20	5	16	49	108	8	17	5	.244	.316	.387	.703	.144	.276	18	8	.316	100	+0	+1	-1	+2	+17	2.0
2031	26	MLB 78%	BAL	611	547	134	20	5	17	51	109	8	16	5	.245	.318	.393	.712	.148	.276	18	8	.318	102	+1	+1	-1	+2	+17	2.1
2032	27	MLB 93%	BAL	611	546	134	20	5	17	52	110	8	16	4	.245	.320	.394	.714	.148	.276	18	9	.318	102	+1	+2	-1	+2	+17	2.2
2033	28	MLB	BAL	606	541	133	20	5	17	52	110	8	14	4	.246	.321	.396	.717	.150	.276	18	9	.317	101	+1	+1	-2	+2	+17	2.0
2034	29	MLB	BAL	596	533	130	20	5	16	51	110	7	13	3	.244	.318	.390	.708	.146	.275	18	9	.315	99	-1	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.8
2035	30	MLB	BAL	586	523	126	19	5	15	51	110	7	12	3	.241	.317	.382	.699	.141	.274	19	9	.312	97	-2	+1	-3	+2	+17	1.5
2036	31	MLB	BAL	572	511	121	18	4	15	49	110	7	9	2	.237	.312	.376	.688	.139	.272	19	9	.308	94	-4	+1	-4	+2	+16	1.2
2037	32	MLB	BAL	553	494	115	17	4	13	47	109	7	8	1	.233	.308	.362	.671	.130	.271	20	8	.303	90	-6	+1	-4	+2	+16	0.9
2038	33	MLB	BAL	523	467	108	16	4	12	45	107	6	7	0	.231	.307	.360	.667	.128	.270	20	9	.298	86	-8	+1	-5	+2	+15	0.5
2039	34	MLB	BAL	476	428	96	14	4	10	40	101	5	6	0	.224	.298	.346	.644	.121	.268	21	8	.292	81	-10	+1	-6	+2	+13	0.1
2040	35	MLB	BAL	420	377	83	12	3	9	35	93	5	5	0	.220	.295	.340	.634	.119	.266	22	8	.284	76	-12	+1	-6	+1	+12	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9259	8316	1999	298	82	224	741	1786	122	264	67	.240	.312	.377	.689	.136	.279	19	8	.306	93	-76	+26	-37	+33	+262	21.3
/ 162G	—			650	584	141	21	6	16	52	125	9	19	5	.241	.314	.380	.694	.139	.280	19	8	.306	93	-5	+2	-3	+2	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	.368	.494	.566	1.060	.199	.412	13	17	.456	207	+21	-0	—	—	+5	2.6
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	.206	.383	.365	.748	.159	.235	14	19	.348	124	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	98	85	21	1	2	1	11	13	1	8	5	.247	.340	.341	.681	.094	.278	13	11	.310	95	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	388	348	103	18	3	8	29	65	8	31	8	.296	.364	.434	.798	.138	.342	17	7	.355	130	+13	+3	—	—	+11	2.8
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	110	100	30	3	1	5	9	17	0	4	0	.300	.358	.500	.858	.200	.316	15	8	.374	144	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	333	289	82	13	7	5	35	58	6	30	6	.284	.373	.429	.802	.145	.336	17	11	.357	131	+12	+4	—	—	+9	2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aron Estrada (OGILVIE)	21	40→49	40→46	55	40	.235/.293/.353	.118	.286	6	12	21%	6%	81	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	47→51	45→50	56→60	43	.230/.277/.366	.136	.289	10	20	24%	6%	77	+0.1	.237/.274/.363	.126	.294	10	25	22%	5%	74	-0.1	.248/.284/.386	.138	.297	12	30	20%	4%	81	+0.3
●Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	48→55	42→50	56→55	47	.233/.294/.350	.117	.285	8	25	21%	7%	80	+0.4	.232/.300/.354	.122	.285	11	15	21%	8%	84	+0.6	.267/.318/.414	.147	.301	17	16	17%	6%	105	+1.6
●CJ Abrams 2022 · AA	21	51→53	43→55	56→60	43	.247/.296/.367	.120	.312	8	21	23%	6%	85	+0.7	.247/.296/.379	.132	.295	13	29	20%	5%	89	+0.9	.248/.310/.428	.179	.287	18	35	20%	6%	104	+2.1
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	45→54	47→50	50	39	.225/.281/.362	.137	.296	14	16	28%	5%	79	+0.3	.231/.293/.358	.127	.284	12	15	22%	7%	82	+0.5	.229/.300/.349	.120	.275	10	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Nick Franklin 2012 · AA	21	45→49	47→50	52→50	42	.228/.277/.358	.130	.289	15	15	26%	6%	75	-0.0	.233/.293/.365	.132	.300	13	13	25%	8%	84	+0.6	.232/.299/.364	.132	.295	13	12	25%	8%	83	+0.5
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	46→52	45→50	55	51	.224/.304/.359	.135	.280	11	21	23%	9%	87	+0.8	.231/.318/.378	.147	.301	14	21	26%	10%	98	+1.6	.227/.321/.379	.152	.295	16	24	26%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	45→53	43→50	61→55	44	.220/.278/.344	.124	.294	9	27	28%	7%	72	-0.2	.237/.291/.371	.134	.285	13	17	21%	7%	85	+0.7	.244/.299/.375	.131	.283	14	12	19%	6%	86	+0.8
●Andrés Giménez 2020 · AA	21	48→58	41→50	53→55	40	.229/.282/.336	.106	.295	8	23	24%	4%	72	-0.2	.246/.304/.386	.140	.311	14	24	25%	5%	95	+1.4	.262/.326/.420	.159	.312	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.1
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	46→56	42→45	55→50	41	.228/.273/.331	.102	.284	10	20	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.247/.297/.349	.102	.297	9	14	19%	6%	81	+0.4	.252/.309/.345	.093	.294	7	12	16%	7%	81	+0.4
✕Roman Quinn 2014 · A	21	42→52	43→45	56→65	40	.210/.265/.316	.105	.279	11	25	28%	6%	59	-1.1	.236/.295/.337	.101	.319	9	33	27%	6%	77	+0.1	.253/.313/.351	.098	.343	7	42	26%	7%	84	+0.4
●Brett Lawrie 2011 · AA	21	49→56	45→55	55	42	.240/.285/.377	.137	.304	9	17	24%	6%	83	+0.6	.259/.312/.421	.162	.306	15	17	20%	6%	106	+2.2	.265/.324/.430	.165	.299	17	16	17%	7%	109	+2.0
✕Fernando Flores 2012 · AAA	20	49	43→40	56→40	44	.241/.291/.350	.109	.293	10	19	21%	6%	79	+0.3	.234/.263/.323	.089	.284	7	8	19%	4%	59	-1.1	.254/.283/.345	.091	.301	7	2	18%	3%	71	-0.2
✕Felix Valerio 2023 · AA	22	43→48	45	53→55	48	.215/.283/.338	.123	.254	13	22	21%	8%	73	-0.1	.205/.267/.312	.107	.264	10	16	25%	7%	59	-1.1	.191/.253/.282	.091	.256	8	13	27%	6%	42	-1.0
✕Jake Marisnick 2013 · AA	22	47→54	44→60	56→55	42	.230/.287/.354	.124	.291	10	19	24%	5%	79	+0.3	.231/.279/.353	.122	.296	12	22	25%	4%	75	-0.0	.232/.296/.435	.203	.309	26	18	33%	6%	101	+0.9
✕Johan Rojas 2022 · A	21	45→55	44→45	55→65	43	.221/.274/.341	.120	.281	11	21	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.232/.276/.342	.110	.293	9	36	23%	5%	70	-0.3	.258/.299/.360	.102	.324	7	41	22%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2014 · AA	22	49→48	44→55	55	40	.238/.279/.362	.124	.311	11	20	27%	5%	76	+0.1	.218/.260/.363	.145	.298	14	22	30%	5%	69	-0.4	.212/.259/.378	.167	.294	18	14	34%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Elliot Johnson 2006 · AA	22	46→54	44→50	59→60	39	.225/.270/.341	.117	.301	11	27	28%	5%	68	-0.5	.221/.265/.348	.127	.302	12	19	30%	5%	67	-0.5	.242/.294/.352	.111	.315	11	30	25%	6%	77	+0.1
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	53→61	44→45	51→55	42	.259/.290/.378	.118	.300	11	19	18%	4%	85	+0.7	.249/.280/.334	.085	.296	7	12	18%	4%	69	-0.4	.271/.303/.378	.106	.308	12	11	16%	4%	90	+0.7
✕Angel Martínez 2023 · AA	21	44→48	45→50	48→50	46	.219/.283/.344	.126	.277	12	11	25%	8%	75	-0.0	.225/.282/.353	.128	.282	13	10	24%	6%	76	+0.1	.224/.278/.351	.127	.277	13	10	23%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	46	.212/.280/.309	.097	.289	6	21	28%	8%	63	-0.8	.250/.309/.355	.105	.324	7	26	23%	7%	87	+0.8	.260/.318/.360	.100	.329	7	29	22%	7%	88	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)