Aron Estrada — OGILVIE

Aron Estrada2B Chesapeake Baysox

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION504 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%5

BABIP287

ISO131

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$7M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.5M
Totals		$26M		$32M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	195	+20	-0	—	—	+4	2.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	121	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	85	21	1	2	1	11	13	1	8	5	247	340	341	681	94	278	13	11	310	96	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	348	103	18	3	8	29	65	8	31	8	296	364	434	798	138	342	17	7	355	126	+12	+3	—	—	+8	2.4
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	100	30	3	1	5	9	17	0	4	0	300	358	500	858	200	316	15	8	374	139	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	289	82	13	7	5	35	58	6	30	6	284	373	429	802	145	336	17	11	357	128	+11	+4	—	—	+7	2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	148	44	11	2	3	17	34	5	4	3	297	388	459	848	162	347	20	10	371	137	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	191	20	11	248	54	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	88	19	1	2	1	8	18	1	8	5	216	289	307	595	91	245	18	8	252	57	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	359	92	12	3	7	18	89	8	31	8	256	306	365	671	109	314	23	5	294	85	-7	+3	—	—	+8	0.5
2025	20	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	103	29	3	1	3	6	20	0	4	0	282	321	417	739	136	314	18	5	321	103	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	302	74	11	6	3	22	77	6	30	6	245	309	351	660	106	310	23	7	294	85	-6	+4	—	—	+7	0.5
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	148	44	11	2	3	17	34	5	4	3	297	388	459	848	162	357	20	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	192	20	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	448	110	13	4	8	25	107	9	39	13	246	299	346	645	100	303	22	5	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	486	433	124	19	5	9	40	78	9	39	13	286	359	416	775	129	329	16	8	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	404	103	14	7	6	29	96	6	34	6	255	314	369	683	114	317	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	443	389	112	16	8	10	44	75	6	34	6	288	369	447	816	159	331	17	10	361	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	150	44	11	2	3	17	34	5	4	3	293	388	453	842	160	347	20	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	191	20	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	449	110	13	4	8	25	107	9	39	13	245	299	345	644	100	300	22	5	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	405	103	14	7	6	29	96	6	34	6	254	314	368	682	114	311	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	191	20	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	449	110	13	4	8	25	107	9	39	13	245	299	345	644	100	300	22	5	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	405	103	14	7	6	29	96	6	34	6	254	314	368	682	114	311	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	BAL	—	504	474	118	19	1	19	21	113	2	7	3	249	284	414	697	165	284	22	4	295	86	-9	+0	+0	+2	+11	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA RAW	BAL	—	504	464	128	21	1	24	31	93	2	7	3	276	324	481	805	205	295	18	6	349	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	AA MLE	BAL	2%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		283	22	0	298	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	AA MLE	BAL	—	513	483	119	19	1	19	21	115	2	7	3	246	281	408	688	161	282	22	4	295	86	-9	+0	+0	+2	+11	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	544	508	125	20	3	17	28	114	3	11	3	246	289	398	687	152	283	21	5	304	92	-5	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	563	523	131	21	3	19	31	116	4	11	3	250	297	411	709	161	284	21	6	311	96	-2	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	66%	589	546	137	22	3	20	34	120	4	12	4	251	300	412	712	161	285	20	6	315	100	-0	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	69%	604	559	141	23	3	21	36	122	4	12	4	252	302	417	719	165	285	20	6	318	101	+1	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	70%	612	566	143	23	3	22	37	124	4	12	4	253	303	420	724	168	285	20	6	319	102	+2	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	69%	611	564	143	23	3	22	38	124	4	12	4	254	305	422	727	168	285	20	6	319	102	+2	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	68%	606	559	141	22	3	22	38	124	4	12	4	252	304	420	725	168	285	20	6	318	101	+1	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	67%	596	549	138	22	3	21	38	123	4	11	3	251	305	417	722	166	284	21	6	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	66%	586	540	134	21	3	20	37	122	4	10	3	248	301	409	710	161	283	21	6	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	71%	572	527	128	20	2	19	36	121	4	9	3	243	296	397	693	154	280	21	6	309	95	-3	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.9
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	74%	553	509	122	19	2	18	35	119	4	7	2	240	294	391	685	151	277	22	6	303	91	-6	+1	-4	+2	+12	0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	BAL	77%	523	482	113	17	2	16	33	116	3	6	2	234	288	378	665	143	273	22	6	296	87	-8	+0	-4	+2	+11	0.1
2039	34	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	476	440	100	14	2	14	30	108	3	4	1	227	281	364	645	136	268	23	6	287	81	-11	+0	-5	+2	+10	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	239	224	56	9	1	8	12	50	1	5	1	250	291	406	697	156	287	21	5	305	92	-2	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	345	321	81	13	2	12	19	71	2	7	2	252	298	417	716	165	288	21	6	312	96	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	66%	391	362	93	15	2	14	23	80	3	8	2	257	307	425	732	169	289	20	6	316	100	-0	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	69%	415	384	98	16	2	15	25	84	3	8	3	255	306	424	730	169	290	20	6	319	101	+1	+0	+0	+1	+9	1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	70%	428	396	101	16	2	16	26	87	3	9	3	255	306	427	733	172	290	20	6	320	102	+1	+1	+0	+2	+9	1.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	69%	421	389	100	16	2	16	26	85	3	9	3	257	309	432	740	175	289	20	6	320	102	+1	+1	+0	+2	+9	1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	68%	415	383	98	16	2	15	26	85	3	8	3	256	308	426	734	170	289	20	6	319	101	+1	+0	-0	+1	+9	1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	67%	398	367	94	15	2	15	25	82	3	7	2	256	309	431	739	174	288	21	6	317	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	66%	385	355	90	14	2	14	24	80	3	7	2	254	306	423	729	169	287	21	6	314	98	-1	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	71%	405	373	93	15	2	14	26	86	3	6	2	249	303	413	716	164	285	21	6	310	95	-2	+0	-2	+1	+9	0.7
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	74%	411	379	93	14	2	14	26	89	3	6	2	245	299	404	703	158	281	22	6	304	91	-4	+0	-3	+1	+9	0.4
2038	33	MLB CTX	BAL	77%	401	371	88	13	2	13	25	89	2	5	1	237	289	388	677	151	277	22	6	297	87	-6	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	344	318	74	11	1	11	21	78	2	3	1	233	284	377	662	145	272	23	6	288	81	-8	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4998	4622	1159	183	24	177	304	1046	34	88	27	251	302	416	717	165	287	21	6	311	95	-22	+7	-14	+18	+108	9.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	151	24	3	23	40	136	4	11	4	251	302	416	718	165	288	21	6	311	95	-3	+1	-2	+2	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	8628	7950	1965	307	50	269	531	1808	72	211	62	247	300	400	700	153	286	21	6	309	95	-32	+10	-20	+27	+161	14.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	148	23	4	20	40	136	5	16	5	247	300	399	699	152	286	21	6	309	95	-3	+1	-2	+2	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	8.4	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
/162	664	26	3	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#2Eduardo Escobarlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,114 PA	7.7	5,114	164	23	253	305	430	+29	+16	21.1	21.1
/162	664	21	3	+3.7	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 21
#3Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#4Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#5Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.5	5,005	170	87	248	296	407	+18	+0	13.6	11.7
/162	664	23	12	+2.4	+0.0	1.8	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aron Estrada (OGILVIE)	21	48	46	55	40	242/283/388	146	283	10	7	21%	5%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	45→53	46→45	50	39	223/279/354	131	293	13	16	28%	5%	78	-0.3	228/292/347	119	279	11	15	21%	7%	81	-0.1	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	48→52	44→50	56→60	43	233/281/368	135	296	9	20	24%	6%	81	-0.1	235/271/353	118	291	9	25	22%	5%	74	-0.6	246/282/378	132	296	11	30	20%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Nick Franklin 2012 · AA	21	45→49	46→50	53→50	42	226/275/354	128	291	14	15	27%	6%	76	-0.4	233/294/362	129	300	12	12	25%	8%	85	+0.2	231/299/358	127	295	12	12	25%	8%	84	+0.2
✕Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	53→61	44→45	51→55	42	261/292/378	118	303	11	19	18%	4%	88	+0.4	248/279/326	78	296	6	11	18%	4%	70	-0.8	269/301/365	97	307	10	11	16%	4%	87	+0.3
✕José Rodríguez 2022 · A	21	48→52	47→50	53→55	39	244/272/377	133	290	14	18	22%	4%	80	-0.1	236/270/360	124	285	13	27	22%	4%	76	-0.4	230/266/352	122	275	13	33	22%	4%	69	-0.6
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2023 · MLB	21	48→49	48→55	54→50	41	243/285/387	143	288	16	18	22%	5%	88	+0.4	241/276/389	148	310	15	10	27%	4%	85	+0.2	237/272/384	147	306	15	8	27%	4%	81	-0.1
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→53	50→55	53→50	44	238/298/398	160	301	17	13	26%	7%	95	+1.0	240/306/401	161	301	18	7	25%	8%	99	+1.3	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Efrain Contreras 2008 · A	21	48	45	53→55	45	236/301/354	118	277	12	16	20%	6%	87	+0.4	212/271/305	93	277	8	10	25%	5%	63	-1.3	184/239/256	71	258	6	6	29%	5%	38	-1.1
●Brett Lawrie 2011 · AA	21	50→56	44→55	56→55	42	242/287/376	134	306	8	18	23%	5%	85	+0.2	261/315/422	161	306	15	17	19%	6%	107	+1.8	266/325/431	165	300	17	16	17%	7%	110	+1.7
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	48→53	45→50	55	52	231/313/367	136	291	10	21	23%	10%	94	+0.9	235/321/380	145	305	14	21	26%	10%	100	+1.3	231/323/380	149	298	15	24	26%	10%	97	+0.7
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	46→55	49→55	58→55	37	233/270/393	160	293	16	19	27%	4%	84	+0.1	242/279/395	153	304	16	23	25%	4%	88	+0.4	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	47→57	42→45	55→50	42	230/277/333	103	288	10	21	24%	5%	72	-0.7	249/301/350	101	298	8	14	18%	6%	84	+0.2	253/310/346	93	295	7	12	16%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2014 · AA	22	49	44→55	56→55	41	240/282/364	125	312	11	21	26%	5%	81	-0.1	217/259/360	143	297	14	22	30%	5%	72	-0.7	212/259/369	157	293	16	14	32%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Angel Martínez 2023 · AA	21	44→47	45→50	48→50	47	218/285/345	126	278	11	11	25%	8%	78	-0.3	223/280/346	123	279	12	10	24%	6%	76	-0.4	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	49→56	42→55	57→55	48	237/298/354	118	288	8	25	20%	7%	84	+0.2	233/300/356	123	286	11	14	21%	8%	86	+0.3	271/321/427	157	304	18	16	17%	6%	109	+1.5
✕Fernando Flores 2012 · AAA	20	50	42→40	57→40	46	244/300/350	106	297	9	20	21%	6%	84	+0.2	233/263/317	84	284	6	8	19%	4%	62	-1.4	252/281/338	86	300	6	2	18%	3%	72	-0.4
✕Jake Marisnick 2012 · A	21	49→54	45→60	56→55	41	239/293/364	125	307	11	21	25%	5%	86	+0.3	229/280/349	120	292	10	20	25%	5%	77	-0.3	231/295/439	208	305	27	18	33%	6%	102	+0.7
●Rougned Odor 2014 · AA	20	49→53	43→60	52→50	40	239/281/360	121	289	10	18	21%	4%	80	-0.2	251/293/411	160	287	16	12	19%	4%	97	+1.1	256/296/440	184	284	21	10	18%	4%	101	+1.4
●Andrés Giménez 2020 · AA	21	47→57	41→50	53→55	40	228/280/334	106	292	7	24	24%	4%	74	-0.6	244/303/380	136	307	13	23	24%	5%	93	+0.8	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	51→52	49→55	51→50	45	254/303/403	149	298	16	16	21%	6%	98	+1.2	245/329/409	164	289	18	14	21%	10%	109	+2.0	235/343/409	174	277	18	13	21%	13%	112	+1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps