Aron Estrada

2B Chesapeake Baysox
Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP40OGV rank#203ETA2028MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419A+/A2 orgs486.286/.359/.41693985—.255/.311/.363
202520AA/A+2 orgs443.288/.369/.447103492—.259/.317/.380
202621AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs582.291/.339/.4892610108—.268/.304/.431
2027PROJMLE22MLBBAL4.250/.296/.39700900.0
2028PROJ44% MLB23MLBBAL222.253/.301/.40776940.4
2029PROJ58% MLB24MLBBAL313.255/.305/.413108960.6
Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
K%82
ISO76
Z-Con%71
Whiff%69
wOBA60
wRC+55
Career WAR0.6 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 56%
CompsAgustín Ramírez (age 22) · Nick Franklin (age 22) · Angel Martínez (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†90
AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .296 / .397
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%5
BABIP287
ISO138
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.40.60.91.00.90.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.8M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$1M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$3M+$2M
2031Arb-1$4M+1.0$6M+$4M
2032Arb-2$6M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$7M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $6M $17M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 174136 501233 29235 43 3684945661.060 199412 1317 456 113 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 8163 13321 15113 50 206383365748 159235 1419 348 57 — — — — — —
202419 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 9885 21121 11131 85 247340341681 94278 1311 310 57 — — — — — —
202419 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 388348 1031838 29658 318 296364434798 138342 177 355 92 — — — — — —
202520 AAChesapeake Baysox — 110100 30315 9170 40 300358500858 200316 158 374 118 — — — — — —
202520 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 333289 821375 35586 306 284373429802 145336 1711 357 84 — — — — — —
202621 AAANorfolk Tides — 2220 7001 210 10 350409500909 150333 59 405 124 — — — — — —
202621 AAChesapeake Baysox — 508468 13021124 31942 73 278325481806 203298 196 350 99 — — — — — —
202621 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 5248 19501 440 21 3964425621.005 167419 88 443 186 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Black — 174146 391022 19295 43 267371404775 137292 1711 335 113 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 8169 11221 9163 50 159284290574 130195 2011 253 57 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 9889 19121 7171 85 213278303582 90242 177 252 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 388357 951337 20858 318 266319378698 112323 225 304 92 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 110102 30313 7200 40 294339431771 137339 186 342 118 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 333303 751164 21756 306 248309363672 116305 236 292 84 — — — — — —
202621 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 2221 7001 110 10 333364476840 143321 55 352 124 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 508476 12619119 231152 73 265301429730 164302 235 315 99 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Black — 174146 391022 19295 43 267371404775 137311 1711 335 113 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL BAL Black — 174136 501233 29235 43 3684945661.060 199412 1317 456 113 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 8169 11221 9163 50 159284290574 130192 2011 253 57 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 8163 13321 15113 50 206383365748 159235 1419 348 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 486445 1141458 281039 3913 256313364677 108314 216 294 85 — — — — — —
202419 A RAW2 teams — 486433 1241959 40789 3913 286359416775 129329 168 346 85 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 443405 1051477 28956 346 259317380697 121319 216 304 92 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAW2 teams — 443389 11216810 44756 346 288369447816 159331 1710 361 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 582546 14621122 271272 104 267304430735 163308 225 317 100 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAW3 teams — 582536 15626126 37992 104 291339489828 198312 176 360 100 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Black — 174148 391022 19295 43 264371399769 135292 1711 335 113 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 8169 11221 9163 50 159284290574 130195 2011 253 57 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 486446 1141458 281039 3913 256313363677 108307 216 294 85 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 443406 1051477 28956 346 259317379696 121313 216 304 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 582548 14621122 271272 104 266304429733 162303 225 317 100 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLE2 teams — 486446 1141458 281039 3913 256313363677 108307 216 294 85 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 443406 1051477 28956 346 259317379696 121313 216 304 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 582548 14621122 271272 104 266304429733 162303 225 317 100 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEBAL 2% 639595 14621418 341295 174 246292388680 142283 205 301 90 -8 +2 -5 +2 +14 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXBAL 2% 44 1000 010 00 250296397693 147287 250 306 90 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEBAL 44% 504467 11617315 281004 133 249297397694 148284 206 307 94 -4 +1 -3 +2 +11 0.8
202924 MLB MLEBAL 58% 537497 12519317 311064 144 251301403704 152285 206 311 96 -2 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
203025 MLB MLEBAL 65% 560517 13120418 341114 144 251303405708 154286 206 313 98 -1 +1 -1 +2 +12 1.3
203126 MLB MLEBAL 68% 578533 13320418 361154 144 251304405709 154286 206 313 98 -1 +1 -1 +2 +13 1.4
203227 MLB MLEBAL 68% 582536 13421418 371174 134 250304403706 153285 206 312 98 -2 +1 -1 +2 +13 1.3
203328 MLB MLEBAL 68% 576530 13120318 371184 113 248301398699 150285 206 310 96 -3 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
203429 MLB MLEBAL 66% 562518 12719317 351164 93 245299392690 146283 216 306 93 -5 +1 -2 +2 +12 0.8
203530 MLB MLEBAL 71% 550507 12419316 341164 72 242295384679 142281 216 301 90 -7 +1 -3 +2 +12 0.5
203631 MLB MLEBAL 75% 533492 11818315 331143 32 238290374664 136278 216 295 86 -9 -0 -4 +2 +12 0.0
203732 MLB MLEBAL 77% 511472 10916213 311123 13 233284361645 129275 226 287 80 -12 -1 -4 +2 +11 -0.5
202823 MLB CTXBAL 44% 222206 52817 12442 61 253301407708 153288 205 312 94 -2 +1 -1 +1 +5 0.4
202924 MLB CTXBAL 58% 313290 7411210 18622 82 255305413717 157289 206 316 96 -1 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.6
203025 MLB CTXBAL 65% 364336 8613212 22723 92 256307415722 160290 206 318 98 -1 +1 -1 +1 +8 0.9
203126 MLB CTXBAL 68% 394363 9214213 25793 102 255308415723 160290 206 319 98 -1 +1 -1 +1 +9 1.0
203227 MLB CTXBAL 68% 396365 9214213 25803 92 254308413720 159290 206 318 98 -1 +1 -1 +1 +9 0.9
203328 MLB CTXBAL 68% 392361 9114213 25803 82 252305408713 156289 206 315 96 -2 +1 -1 +1 +8 0.8
203429 MLB CTXBAL 66% 373343 8613212 24773 62 249302401704 152287 216 311 93 -3 +0 -2 +1 +8 0.5
203530 MLB CTXBAL 71% 392362 9014212 24823 52 246299393692 147285 216 306 90 -5 +0 -2 +1 +8 0.3
203631 MLB CTXBAL 75% 398368 8914211 24853 32 242294383677 141282 216 300 86 -7 -0 -3 +1 +9 0.0
203732 MLB CTXBAL 77% 393364 8713211 24862 12 236287370657 134278 226 292 80 -9 -1 -3 +1 +9 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 36373358 83912819114 22374727 6519 250302401703 151288 216 311 93 -32 +5 -16 +13 +79 5.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 14923320 401345 123 248301397697 148287 216 311 93 -6 +1 -3 +2 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 74696875 171125750211 458153765 19659 249302393695 144290 216 306 93 -48 +8 -26 +20 +124 7.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650598 14822418 401346 175 247301388689 140289 216 306 93 -5 +1 -3 +2 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 508 PAwOBA .344 → .315 (−29)K% 18.5% → 22.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.50%÷1.000×1.220——22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.10%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0504.49%
HBP% /PA0.39%—×0.850—×1.0500.35%
Singles /BIP22.46%÷1.000×0.970×1.031×1.05023.58%
Doubles /BIP5.61%÷1.000×0.860×1.031×1.0505.23%
Triples /BIP0.27%÷1.000×0.950×1.031×1.0500.27%
Home runs /BIP6.42%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0505.26%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .344 → .315; ISO .203 → .170; BABIP .298 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 22 PAwOBA .394 → .352 (−41)K% 4.5% → 5.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA4.55%÷1.000×1.200——5.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.09%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0506.59%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP31.58%÷1.000×0.930—×1.05030.84%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0503.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .394 → .352; ISO .150 → .112; BABIP .333 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 333 PAwOBA .348 → .292 (−55)K% 17.4% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.42%÷1.013×1.310——22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.61%÷0.944×0.600—×1.0426.37%
HBP% /PA1.80%—×0.770—×1.0421.45%
Singles /BIP24.68%÷0.990×0.870×1.028×1.04223.21%
Doubles /BIP5.63%÷1.010×0.780×1.028×1.0424.65%
Triples /BIP3.03%÷1.091×0.850×1.028×1.0422.53%
Home runs /BIP2.16%÷1.229×0.880—×1.0421.62%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .348 → .292; ISO .145 → .117; BABIP .336 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 110 PAwOBA .367 → .342 (−25)K% 15.5% → 18.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.45%÷1.044×1.220——18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.18%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0506.09%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP25.30%÷0.957×0.970×1.043×1.05028.07%
Doubles /BIP3.61%÷0.970×0.860×1.043×1.0503.51%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷0.900×0.950×1.043×1.0501.39%
Home runs /BIP6.02%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0503.95%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .367 → .342; ISO .200 → .151; BABIP .316 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 388 PAwOBA .347 → .304 (−44)K% 16.8% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.75%÷1.035×1.360——22.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.22%÷0.997×0.690—×1.0455.22%
HBP% /PA2.06%—×0.780—×1.0451.68%
Singles /BIP26.15%÷0.988×0.920×1.027×1.04526.13%
Doubles /BIP6.36%÷1.216×0.830×1.027×1.0454.66%
Triples /BIP1.06%÷0.943×0.910×1.027×1.0451.10%
Home runs /BIP2.83%÷0.952×0.800—×1.0452.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .347 → .304; ISO .138 → .113; BABIP .342 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 98 PAwOBA .306 → .252 (−54)K% 13.3% → 17.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.27%÷0.993×1.310——17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.22%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0507.46%
HBP% /PA1.02%—×0.770—×1.0500.82%
Singles /BIP23.61%÷1.048×0.870×1.016×1.05020.90%
Doubles /BIP1.39%÷0.980×0.780×1.016×1.0501.18%
Triples /BIP2.78%÷1.150×0.850×1.016×1.0502.19%
Home runs /BIP1.39%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0501.25%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .306 → .252; ISO .094 → .080; BABIP .278 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 81 PAwOBA .340 → .253 (−87)K% 13.6% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.58%÷0.972×1.440——20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.52%÷1.056×0.620—×1.02211.11%
HBP% /PA3.70%—×0.720—×1.0222.73%
Singles /BIP13.46%÷1.025×0.820×1.050×1.02211.56%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷0.960×0.720×1.050×1.0224.65%
Triples /BIP3.85%÷0.989×0.720×1.050×1.0223.01%
Home runs /BIP1.92%÷1.027×0.780—×1.0221.49%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .340 → .253; ISO .159 → .129; BABIP .235 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL BAL Black · 174 PAwOBA .454 → .335 (−119)K% 13.2% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.22%÷0.968×1.220——16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.09%÷1.032×0.700—×1.02211.16%
HBP% /PA2.87%—×0.700—×1.0222.06%
Singles /BIP28.32%÷1.030×0.680×1.050×1.02220.08%
Doubles /BIP10.62%÷0.867×0.600×1.050×1.0227.89%
Triples /BIP2.65%÷0.966×0.600×1.050×1.0221.77%
Home runs /BIP2.65%÷0.834×0.470—×1.0221.53%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 106, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .454 → .335; ISO .199 → .144; BABIP .412 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .