Aron Estrada — OGILVIE

Aron Estrada2B Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .297 / .399

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%5

BABIP289

ISO141

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$7M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.6M
Totals		$22M		$31M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	85	21	1	2	1	11	13	1	8	5	247	340	341	681	94	278	13	11	310	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	348	103	18	3	8	29	65	8	31	8	296	364	434	798	138	342	17	7	355	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	100	30	3	1	5	9	17	0	4	0	300	358	500	858	200	316	15	8	374	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	289	82	13	7	5	35	58	6	30	6	284	373	429	802	145	336	17	11	357	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	22	20	7	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	350	409	500	909	150	333	5	9	405	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	508	468	130	21	1	24	31	94	2	7	3	278	325	481	806	203	298	19	6	350	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	146	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	267	371	404	775	137	292	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	195	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	89	19	1	2	1	7	17	1	8	5	213	278	303	582	90	242	17	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	357	95	13	3	7	20	85	8	31	8	266	319	378	698	112	323	22	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	102	30	3	1	3	7	20	0	4	0	294	339	431	771	137	339	18	6	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	303	75	11	6	4	21	75	6	30	6	248	309	363	672	116	305	23	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	22	21	7	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	333	364	476	840	143	321	5	5	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	508	476	126	19	1	19	23	115	2	7	3	265	301	429	730	164	302	23	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	146	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	267	371	404	775	137	311	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	192	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	445	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	364	677	108	314	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	486	433	124	19	5	9	40	78	9	39	13	286	359	416	775	129	329	16	8	346	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	405	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	380	697	121	319	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	443	389	112	16	8	10	44	75	6	34	6	288	369	447	816	159	331	17	10	361	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	530	497	133	19	1	20	24	116	2	8	3	268	304	431	735	163	308	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	530	488	137	21	1	25	33	95	2	8	3	281	329	482	810	201	299	18	6	352	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	148	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	264	371	399	769	135	292	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	195	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	446	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	363	677	108	307	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	406	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	379	696	121	313	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	530	499	133	19	1	20	24	116	2	8	3	267	304	429	733	162	303	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	446	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	363	677	108	307	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	406	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	379	696	121	313	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	530	499	133	19	1	20	24	116	2	8	3	267	304	429	733	162	303	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	2%	639	595	147	22	4	18	34	129	5	17	4	248	293	390	683	142	285	20	5	302	91	-7	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	252	297	399	696	147	289	17	0	307	91	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	570	529	132	20	4	17	32	114	4	15	4	249	297	396	693	147	285	20	6	306	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	597	552	138	21	4	18	35	119	5	15	4	251	301	402	703	151	286	20	6	311	97	-2	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	73%	615	567	143	22	4	19	38	123	5	16	4	251	303	405	708	153	287	20	6	313	98	-2	+2	+0	+2	+13	1.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	76%	627	578	145	22	4	20	39	126	5	15	4	251	304	404	708	154	287	20	6	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+2	+14	1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	76%	629	580	144	22	4	19	39	127	5	15	4	250	303	402	704	152	286	20	6	312	97	-2	+1	+0	+2	+14	1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	76%	626	577	143	22	4	19	39	128	5	13	4	248	301	397	698	149	285	20	6	309	95	-4	+1	-1	+2	+14	1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	74%	617	570	139	21	3	18	38	128	4	10	3	245	298	391	689	145	284	21	6	305	93	-5	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	73%	607	561	136	21	3	17	37	128	4	8	3	242	294	383	677	141	282	21	6	300	89	-8	+0	-2	+2	+13	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	73%	594	549	131	20	3	16	36	127	4	4	3	238	289	373	662	135	279	21	6	294	85	-10	-0	-3	+2	+13	0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	576	534	124	18	3	15	34	126	3	1	4	233	283	361	643	128	275	22	6	286	80	-14	-1	-4	+2	+12	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	280	260	66	10	2	9	16	56	2	7	2	253	301	405	707	152	289	20	6	312	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	389	360	91	14	2	12	23	78	3	10	3	255	305	412	717	157	291	20	6	316	97	-2	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	73%	447	413	106	16	3	15	27	89	4	11	3	255	307	415	722	159	291	20	6	319	98	-1	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	76%	478	441	112	17	3	16	30	96	4	12	3	255	308	414	722	159	291	20	6	319	98	-1	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	76%	479	442	111	17	3	15	30	97	4	11	3	254	307	412	718	158	290	20	6	317	97	-2	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	76%	476	439	111	17	3	15	30	97	4	10	3	252	305	407	711	155	289	20	6	314	95	-3	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	74%	458	424	106	16	3	14	28	95	3	8	2	249	302	400	702	151	288	21	6	310	93	-4	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	73%	445	412	100	15	2	13	27	94	3	6	2	246	298	392	690	146	286	21	6	306	89	-6	+0	-2	+2	+10	0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	73%	432	400	97	15	2	12	26	93	3	3	2	242	293	382	675	140	283	22	6	299	85	-8	-0	-2	+2	+9	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	417	387	91	13	2	11	25	91	2	1	3	237	286	369	655	133	279	22	6	291	80	-10	-1	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4301	3978	991	150	25	132	262	886	32	79	26	249	301	399	700	150	288	21	6	311	93	-38	+5	-8	+15	+93	7.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	150	23	4	20	40	134	5	12	4	250	302	401	703	151	289	21	6	311	93	-6	+1	-1	+2	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8092	7457	1851	279	55	225	492	1670	71	210	64	248	301	391	692	143	290	21	6	305	93	-57	+8	-10	+23	+138	10.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	148	22	4	18	40	134	6	17	5	247	301	387	689	140	288	21	6	305	93	-6	+1	-1	+2	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#2Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.5	4,307	127	78	247	295	393	+15	+0	10.1	9.5
/162	664	20	12	+2.4	+0.0	1.6	pk7: 9
#4Yangervis Solartelast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,645 PA	4.0	2,645	75	6	258	315	408	+9	+3	9.4	9.4
/162	664	19	2	+2.4	+0.7	2.4	pk7: 9
#5Brett Lawrielast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,417 PA	3.6	2,417	71	41	261	315	419	+9	+1	9.4	9.4
/162	664	20	11	+2.4	+0.3	2.6	pk7: 9
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aron Estrada (OGILVIE)	22	48	46	55	40	245/291/386	141	285	9	8	20%	5%	91	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Franklin 2013 · AAA	22	49→51	46→50	53→50	43	240/291/376	135	309	12	13	26%	6%	87	+0.4	236/303/375	139	301	14	12	25%	9%	92	+0.7	229/301/370	142	288	16	11	25%	9%	90	+0.5
✕Brayan Rocchio 2023 · AAA	22	47→56	47→45	46→50	44	233/294/368	135	288	14	13	24%	6%	87	+0.4	234/302/353	119	283	9	16	20%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2023 · MLB	21	50→49	49→55	54→50	42	253/296/401	148	300	16	18	22%	5%	95	+1.0	244/280/395	151	314	16	10	27%	4%	88	+0.4	240/274/388	149	310	15	8	27%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Ramon Santiago 2003 · MLB	23	49→52	45	52→50	46	238/304/366	128	281	12	16	20%	6%	91	+0.6	223/288/310	87	254	7	13	15%	6%	72	-0.7	256/332/354	98	297	10	3	16%	8%	98	+0.6
✕Alen Hanson 2015 · AA	22	51→53	45→50	56→60	42	247/287/386	138	305	11	20	23%	5%	88	+0.4	244/280/363	119	300	9	29	21%	5%	79	-0.2	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Angel Martínez 2024 · AAA	22	47→50	45→50	49→50	45	230/291/357	127	290	12	10	25%	7%	83	+0.1	235/287/374	139	287	14	11	23%	6%	86	+0.3	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Matt Shaw 2024 · AA	22	52→48	49→55	59→55	41	261/297/413	152	307	16	22	21%	4%	98	+1.2	244/315/408	164	287	19	23	21%	8%	104	+1.6	237/316/404	167	275	19	23	21%	9%	102	+1.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	47→55	50→55	58→55	37	238/275/402	164	298	17	19	26%	4%	88	+0.4	245/282/399	154	307	17	23	25%	4%	90	+0.6	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
●Jemile Weeks 2010 · AA	23	50→60	44→45	52→55	49	243/308/363	119	293	12	12	21%	8%	91	+0.6	251/310/358	107	297	6	19	17%	7%	90	+0.6	255/325/347	92	308	3	20	17%	8%	91	+0.7
✕Noelvi Marte 2024 · MLB	22	50→55	48→50	52→55	47	247/311/388	140	308	15	19	24%	8%	98	+1.2	242/287/373	131	305	14	18	25%	5%	85	+0.2	241/280/371	130	301	15	19	24%	4%	81	-0.0
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2012 · AA	22	55→63	44→45	51→55	42	268/300/390	122	311	12	19	18%	4%	94	+0.9	257/289/340	83	307	7	11	18%	4%	77	-0.3	273/306/372	99	313	10	11	16%	4%	91	+0.4
✕Orlando Arcia 2018 · MLB	23	51→59	45→50	51→55	43	253/291/377	124	298	12	17	20%	5%	87	+0.4	243/288/359	116	293	12	11	21%	6%	82	+0.0	243/304/399	156	273	20	3	19%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Felipe Lopez 2002 · MLB	22	49→59	49→55	50→55	46	248/298/401	154	288	17	12	21%	7%	95	+1.0	232/298/375	143	304	14	11	26%	8%	90	+0.6	270/343/418	149	319	15	22	19%	10%	117	+2.4
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Luis Juarez 2012 · AAA	22	49→57	47→45	46→40	45	247/288/380	133	275	15	9	17%	5%	87	+0.4	247/290/365	118	285	11	7	17%	5%	84	+0.2	261/309/379	118	281	13	3	12%	6%	93	+0.5
✕Reid Brignac 2008 · AA	22	47→54	49→55	49→50	43	240/288/392	151	290	17	10	24%	6%	90	+0.6	239/280/373	134	296	13	8	23%	5%	82	+0.0	242/280/370	128	301	12	6	23%	4%	81	-0.1
✕Brendan Rodgers 2019 · AAA	22	48→55	47→50	47→45	39	242/287/381	139	299	15	8	24%	4%	87	+0.4	247/294/387	140	307	15	6	24%	5%	91	+0.7	260/314/400	140	308	15	0	20%	6%	102	+1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps