Ceddanne Rafaela

CF Boston Red Sox
Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 3.203 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2034
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202423MLBBOS571.246/.276/.3901519800.6
202524MLBBOS587.249/.296/.4141620923.0
202625MLBBOS576.285/.322/.44416171072.0
2027PROJ26MLBBOS511.257/.296/.4051325911.8
2028PROJ27MLBBOS510.256/.295/.4021325901.8
2029PROJ28MLBBOS495.254/.294/.3981222881.5
Last 3 seasons WAR 5.6  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service3.203First FA2034Options2
2027Ext$6M2028Ext$6M2029Ext$6M2030Ext$6M2031Ext$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed90
Barrel%44
xwOBA33
Bat Spd33
Avg EV23
Form.248/.285/.372 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .249/.287/.395
CompsHernán Pérez (age 26) · Tyler Greene (age 26) · Jake Marisnick (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9391vR 83
AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .296 / .405
PA511
HR13
SB25
K%21
BB%4
BABIP303
ISO146
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +4.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+5RUNFLD: +7.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+8FLDPOS: +1.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +11.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+11REPTotal WAR: +2.20+2.2WAR
0.01.42.72.21.81.51.20.927282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
350.239
POWER50
Barrel%
447.4
Avg EV
2387.1
Bat Spd
3369.5
EYE20
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
9029.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%21%▲19% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 21%
BB%4%·3% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 4%
ISO.124▼.000 over 29 AB (60d) · proj .146
BABIP.293·.292 over 24 BIP (60d) · proj .293
SLASH.248/.285/.372▼proj .249/.287/.395
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1251 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
338
913
—
wRC+
84
92
▶R
wOBA
293
305
▶R
ISO
169
143
◀◀L
BABIP
299
305
—
K%
28.1%
21.0%
▶▶R
BB%
3.8%
3.8%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.203 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$6M+2.2$18M+$11M
2028Ext$6M+1.8$13M+$8M
2029Ext$6M+1.5$10M+$5M
2030Ext$6M+1.2$8M+$3M
2031Ext$6M+0.9$3M-$1M
Totals $31M $52M +$26M
Options · projected decision
2032CLUB OPT$6.2M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2033CLUB OPT$16.0M / $4.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201817 ROKDSL Red Sox 1 — 225203 55923 14394 197 271330379710 108317 176 315 22 — — — — — —
201918 ROKGCL Red Sox — 176153 38146 14285 92 248331425756 176267 168 330 47 — — — — — —
202120 ASalem Red Sox — 432394 9920910 25797 233 251308424731 173288 186 319 67 — — — — — —
202221 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 313284 7915612 16626 145 278330500830 222310 205 355 97 — — — — — —
202221 A+Greenville Drive — 209197 651749 10512 142 330368594962 264409 245 417 98 — — — — — —
202221 INTLCriollos de Caguas — 7665 17401 9162 52 262368369738 108333 2112 340 116 — — — — — —
202322 MLBBoston Red Sox — 8983 20602 4281 31 241284386670 145333 314 295 79 -2 +0 +1 +2 +2 0.3
202322 AAAWorcester Red Sox — 219199 6213314 12487 65 312372618990 307348 225 425 113 — — — — — —
202322 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 266245 721806 14552 308 294337441778 147351 215 339 86 — — — — — —
202423 MLBBoston Red Sox — 571544 13423515 151517 1910 246276390665 143312 263 292 80 -14 -0 +1 +6 +12 0.6
202524 MLBBoston Red Sox — 587546 13634416 281178 205 249296414709 165289 205 312 92 -6 +2 +18 +2 +13 3.0
202625 MLBBoston Red Sox — 576541 15432316 221178 179 285322444766 159336 204 336 107 +5 -0 +0 +2 +12 2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 18231714 444951249 6941324 5925 259297414711 155313 234 313 98 -5 +2 +20 +12 +39 7.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201817 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox 1 — 225207 35511 10474 197 169222217439 48206 214 201 22 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEGCL Red Sox — 176158 30135 9405 92 190256329585 139203 235 237 47 — — — — — —
202120 A MLESalem Red Sox — 432402 881689 171107 233 219263366629 147267 254 267 67 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 313289 7412510 11766 145 256297436733 180296 244 311 97 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 209201 511238 6632 142 254282463745 209334 303 313 98 — — — — — —
202322 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 8983 19502 4281 31 229273361634 133333 314 285 79 -2 +0 +1 +2 +2 0.3
202322 AAA MLEWorcester Red Sox — 219202 518310 9567 65 252307470778 218303 264 335 113 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 266250 681405 9672 308 272303388691 116335 253 295 86 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 571545 13120615 141517 1910 240269382650 141312 262 286 80 -14 -0 +1 +6 +12 0.6
202524 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 587546 13130416 281178 205 240287397684 158289 205 304 92 -6 +2 +18 +2 +13 3.0
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 576542 14828316 211178 179 273310424734 151336 204 327 107 +5 -0 +0 +2 +12 2.0
201817 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox 1 — 225207 35511 10474 197 169222217439 48210 214 201 22 — — — — — —
201817 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox 1 — 225203 55923 14394 197 271330379710 108317 176 315 22 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEGCL Red Sox — 176158 30135 9405 92 190256329585 139219 235 237 47 — — — — — —
201918 ROK RAWGCL Red Sox — 176153 38146 14285 92 248331425756 176267 168 330 47 — — — — — —
202120 A MLESalem Red Sox — 432402 881689 171107 233 219263366629 147275 254 267 67 — — — — — —
202120 A RAWSalem Red Sox — 432394 9920910 25797 233 251308424731 173288 186 319 67 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLE3 teams — 598561 14328920 2015910 339 255293444737 189317 273 312 97 — — — — — —
202221 AA RAW3 teams — 598546 161361022 3512910 339 295349518867 223347 226 375 97 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLE3 teams — 574535 13928317 2215110 3914 260302419720 159327 264 309 95 — — — — — —
202322 AA RAW3 teams — 574527 15437322 3013110 3914 292342499841 207347 235 365 95 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 571545 13120615 141517 1910 240269382650 141304 262 286 80 -14 -0 +1 +6 +12 0.6
202423 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 571544 13423515 151517 1910 246276390665 143312 263 292 80 -14 -0 +1 +6 +12 0.6
202524 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 587546 13130416 281178 205 240287397684 158277 205 304 92 -6 +2 +18 +2 +13 3.0
202524 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 587546 13634416 281178 205 249296414709 165289 205 312 92 -6 +2 +18 +2 +13 3.0
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 576542 14828316 211178 179 273310424734 151320 204 327 107 +5 -0 +0 +2 +12 2.0
202625 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 576541 15432316 221178 179 285322444766 159336 204 336 107 +5 -0 +0 +2 +12 2.0
201817 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox 1 — 225209 35511 10474 197 167222215437 48206 214 201 22 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEGCL Red Sox — 176160 30135 9405 92 188256325581 138203 235 237 47 — — — — — —
202120 A MLESalem Red Sox — 432405 881689 171107 233 217263363626 146267 254 267 67 — — — — — —
202221 AA MLE3 teams — 598563 14328920 2015910 339 254293442735 188311 273 312 97 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLE3 teams — 574537 13928317 2215110 3914 259302417719 158323 264 309 95 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 571545 13120615 141517 1910 240269382650 141312 262 286 80 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 587546 13130416 281178 205 240287397684 158289 205 304 92 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 576542 14828316 211178 179 273310424734 151336 204 327 107 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 571545 13120615 141517 1910 240269382650 141312 262 286 80 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 587546 13130416 281178 205 240287397684 158289 205 304 92 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 576542 14828316 211178 179 273310424734 151336 204 327 107 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEBOS 100% 574538 13525415 231218 285 250290396685 146293 214 302 91 -6 +4 +9 +2 +12 2.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXBOS 100% 511479 12325313 201087 255 257296405701 148303 214 309 91 -6 +3 +8 +2 +11 1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEBOS 100% 510478 11822313 201097 255 249289393682 144293 214 301 90 -6 +3 +8 +2 +11 1.8
202928 MLB MLEBOS 100% 495466 11521313 201066 224 247287389676 142292 214 298 88 -7 +3 +7 +2 +11 1.5
203029 MLB MLEBOS 100% 481453 11020312 191056 184 245284383667 138291 224 295 86 -8 +2 +6 +2 +10 1.2
203130 MLB MLEBOS 100% 467440 10720311 181036 153 242281376657 134289 224 290 83 -10 +2 +5 +2 +10 0.9
203231 MLB MLEBOS 100% 450425 10118310 171015 102 238276366642 128286 224 284 78 -12 +1 +4 +2 +10 0.5
202827 MLB CTXBOS 100% 510478 12225313 201097 255 256295402698 147302 214 308 90 -6 +3 +8 +2 +11 1.8
202928 MLB CTXBOS 100% 495466 11824312 201066 224 254294398692 144302 214 305 88 -7 +3 +7 +2 +11 1.5
203029 MLB CTXBOS 100% 481453 11423312 191056 184 252291392683 141301 224 302 86 -8 +2 +6 +2 +10 1.2
203130 MLB CTXBOS 100% 467440 11022311 181036 153 249287385672 136299 224 297 83 -10 +2 +5 +2 +10 0.9
203231 MLB CTXBOS 100% 450425 10421210 171015 102 245282375657 131296 224 291 78 -12 +1 +4 +2 +10 0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 42263976 101221026107 16393754 14943 255293401694 147307 224 306 85 -48 +13 +50 +21 +92 13.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650612 15532416 251448 237 253291397689 144305 224 306 85 -7 +2 +8 +3 +14 2.0
Career— MLE — 66536237 151627955172 255152496 29482 243283388672 145293 234 294 85 -53 +16 +58 +23 +103 14.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650609 14827517 251499 298 243283388670 144293 234 294 85 -7 +2 +8 +3 +14 2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 266 PAwOBA .334 → .295 (−39)K% 20.7% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.68%÷1.000×1.220——25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.89%÷1.032×0.700—×1.0273.40%
HBP% /PA0.75%—×0.850—×1.0270.66%
Singles /BIP25.26%÷0.972×0.970×1.007×1.02726.08%
Doubles /BIP9.47%÷1.144×0.860×1.007×1.0277.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×1.007×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP3.16%÷1.048×0.780—×1.0272.41%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .334 → .295; ISO .147 → .112; BABIP .351 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 219 PAwOBA .415 → .335 (−80)K% 21.9% → 25.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.92%÷1.023×1.200——25.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.48%÷0.986×0.690—×1.0504.03%
HBP% /PA3.20%—×0.940—×1.0503.15%
Singles /BIP21.19%÷0.996×0.930×0.989×1.05020.55%
Doubles /BIP8.61%÷1.309×0.830×0.989×1.0505.67%
Triples /BIP1.99%÷0.905×0.970×0.989×1.0502.21%
Home runs /BIP9.27%÷1.008×0.700—×1.0506.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .415 → .335; ISO .307 → .224; BABIP .348 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 313 PAwOBA .352 → .311 (−41)K% 19.8% → 24.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.81%÷0.994×1.220——24.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.11%÷1.026×0.700—×1.0423.63%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.850—×1.0421.70%
Singles /BIP20.72%÷0.983×0.970×0.993×1.04221.16%
Doubles /BIP6.76%÷1.066×0.860×0.993×1.0425.64%
Triples /BIP2.70%÷1.150×0.950×0.993×1.0422.31%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷1.004×0.780—×1.0424.38%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .352 → .311; ISO .222 → .181; BABIP .310 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 209 PAwOBA .405 → .313 (−91)K% 24.4% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.40%÷1.059×1.310——30.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.78%÷1.001×0.600—×1.0122.90%
HBP% /PA0.96%—×0.770—×1.0120.75%
Singles /BIP23.97%÷1.005×0.870×0.980×1.01220.58%
Doubles /BIP11.64%÷1.000×0.780×0.980×1.0129.01%
Triples /BIP2.74%÷1.150×0.850×0.980×1.0122.01%
Home runs /BIP6.16%÷0.996×0.880—×1.0125.51%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .405 → .313; ISO .264 → .208; BABIP .409 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASalem Red Sox · 432 PAwOBA .313 → .267 (−47)K% 18.3% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.29%÷0.974×1.360——25.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.79%÷1.049×0.690—×1.0153.87%
HBP% /PA1.62%—×0.780—×1.0151.28%
Singles /BIP19.05%÷0.981×0.920×1.004×1.01518.22%
Doubles /BIP6.35%÷1.030×0.830×1.004×1.0155.21%
Triples /BIP2.86%÷0.944×0.910×1.004×1.0152.81%
Home runs /BIP3.17%÷0.858×0.800—×1.0153.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .313 → .267; ISO .173 → .151; BABIP .288 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Red Sox · 176 PAwOBA .323 → .237 (−86)K% 15.9% → 22.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.91%÷1.000×1.440——22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.95%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0084.97%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.720—×1.0082.06%
Singles /BIP21.60%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×1.00816.95%
Doubles /BIP0.80%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0080.55%
Triples /BIP3.20%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0082.21%
Home runs /BIP4.80%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0083.77%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .323 → .237; ISO .176 → .131; BABIP .267 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 DSLDSL Red Sox 1 · 225 PAwOBA .311 → .201 (−110)K% 17.3% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.33%÷1.000×1.220——21.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.22%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0084.39%
HBP% /PA1.78%—×0.700—×1.0081.25%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.680×0.981×1.00816.79%
Doubles /BIP5.49%÷1.000×0.600×0.981×1.0083.25%
Triples /BIP1.22%÷1.000×0.600×0.981×1.0080.72%
Home runs /BIP1.83%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.87%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .311 → .201; ISO .108 → .059; BABIP .317 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .