Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne RafaelaCF Boston Red Sox

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2027

wRC+†vL 7789vR 98

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .279 / .386

PA590

HR16

SB16

K%24

BB%4

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

50→50

SPD

60→60

EYE

36↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+1.8	$14M	+$12M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+2.2	$18M	+$14M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+2.2	$19M	+$13M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.0	$17M	+$10M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+1.8	$16M	+$5M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+1.5	$14M	+$0.7M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+1.2	$11M	-$5M
Totals		$60M		$110M	+$51M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 1	225	208	41	6	1	2	9	56	4	19	7	.197	.244	.264	.509	.067	.255	25	4	.226	31	-18	+1	+0	+1	+6	-1.0
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	176	158	30	1	3	5	9	40	5	9	2	.190	.256	.329	.585	.139	.219	23	5	.235	38	-12	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	432	403	88	15	9	10	16	109	7	23	3	.218	.261	.375	.635	.156	.271	25	4	.269	64	-18	+3	+0	+2	+12	-0.0
2022	21	AA	3 teams	598	562	140	28	8	21	19	163	10	33	9	.249	.286	.440	.725	.190	.310	27	3	.303	90	-7	+3	+0	+2	+17	1.6
2023	22	AA	3 teams	574	536	137	28	3	19	21	155	10	39	14	.256	.296	.425	.722	.170	.321	27	4	.308	94	-4	+2	+1	+2	+16	1.8
2024	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	571	544	132	20	6	16	15	151	7	19	10	.243	.272	.390	.662	.147	.305	26	3	.283	75	-16	-0	+1	+6	+16	0.7
2025	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	587	546	134	33	4	16	28	117	8	20	5	.245	.292	.408	.701	.163	.284	20	5	.301	89	-7	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	83	74	19	3	0	1	5	18	4	0	2	.257	.337	.338	.675	.081	.327	22	6	.309	95	-0	-1	+0	+0	+2	0.2
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	507	469	115	22	3	13	23	119	10	16	5	.245	.295	.388	.683	.143	.296	23	5	.300	88	-7	+1	+6	+2	+14	1.7
TOT	25	MLB	BOS	590	543	134	25	3	14	28	137	14	16	7	.247	.301	.381	.682	.134	.304	23	5	.301	89	-7	+0	+6	+2	+17	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB	BOS	590	545	133	25	4	15	28	117	12	18	6	.244	.296	.387	.683	.143	.281	20	5	.302	89	-7	+1	+7	+2	+17	2.0
2028	27	MLB	BOS	585	541	131	25	3	15	28	116	11	18	6	.242	.293	.383	.676	.140	.281	20	5	.302	89	-7	+1	+7	+2	+17	2.0
2029	28	MLB	BOS	577	533	129	24	3	15	28	116	11	17	5	.242	.294	.383	.676	.141	.281	20	5	.301	88	-8	+1	+6	+2	+16	1.9
2030	29	MLB	BOS	565	521	125	24	3	14	28	115	11	15	5	.240	.293	.378	.671	.138	.280	20	5	.299	87	-8	+1	+5	+2	+16	1.6
2031	30	MLB	BOS	553	510	121	23	3	13	27	115	11	14	4	.237	.290	.371	.661	.133	.279	21	5	.296	84	-10	+1	+4	+2	+16	1.4
2032	31	MLB	BOS	538	496	117	22	3	13	27	114	10	11	3	.236	.289	.371	.660	.135	.278	21	5	.292	82	-11	+1	+3	+2	+15	1.0
2033	32	MLB	BOS	519	478	112	21	3	12	26	112	10	8	2	.234	.288	.366	.654	.132	.276	22	5	.287	78	-13	+1	+2	+2	+15	0.7
2034	33	MLB	BOS	489	453	103	19	3	10	24	109	9	6	1	.227	.280	.349	.629	.121	.275	22	5	.281	74	-15	+1	+1	+2	+14	0.3
2035	34	MLB	BOS	442	410	91	17	2	9	21	102	8	4	1	.222	.273	.339	.612	.117	.273	23	5	.275	68	-16	+0	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8528	7913	1879	353	64	218	377	1926	154	289	88	.237	.285	.381	.666	.143	.285	23	4	.291	81	-183	+23	+62	+35	+242	18.1
/ 162G	—			650	603	144	27	5	17	29	147	12	22	7	.239	.287	.385	.672	.146	.287	23	4	.291	81	-14	+2	+5	+3	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 1	225	203	55	9	2	3	14	39	4	19	7	.271	.330	.379	.710	.108	.317	17	6	.315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+6	0.7
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	176	153	38	1	4	6	14	28	5	9	2	.248	.331	.425	.756	.176	.267	16	8	.330	111	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	432	394	99	20	9	10	25	79	7	23	3	.251	.308	.424	.731	.173	.288	18	6	.319	102	+1	+3	—	—	+12	1.7
2022	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	313	284	79	15	6	12	16	62	6	14	5	.278	.330	.500	.830	.222	.310	20	5	.355	130	+11	+1	—	—	+9	2.1
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	209	197	65	17	4	9	10	51	2	14	2	.330	.368	.594	.962	.264	.409	24	5	.417	177	+18	+2	—	—	+6	2.7
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	76	65	17	4	0	1	9	16	2	5	2	.262	.368	.369	.738	.108	.333	21	12	.340	118	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	89	83	20	6	0	2	4	28	1	3	1	.241	.284	.386	.670	.145	.333	31	4	.295	84	-2	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.4
2023	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	219	199	62	13	3	14	12	48	7	6	5	.312	.372	.618	.990	.307	.348	22	5	.425	184	+21	-1	—	—	+6	2.7
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	266	245	72	18	0	6	14	55	2	30	8	.294	.337	.441	.778	.147	.351	21	5	.339	118	+5	+3	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	571	544	134	23	5	15	15	151	7	19	10	.246	.276	.390	.665	.143	.312	26	3	.292	82	-12	-0	+1	+6	+16	1.2
2025	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	587	546	136	34	4	16	28	117	8	20	5	.249	.296	.414	.709	.165	.289	20	5	.312	97	-2	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1247	1173	290	63	9	33	47	296	16	42	16	.247	.286	.401	.686	.153	.302	24	4	.302	89	-16	+2	+20	+10	+35	5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ceddanne Rafaela (OGILVIE)	25	45	50	60	20	.241/.290/.381	.140	.281	15	18	20%	5%	88	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Scott Kingery 2019 · MLB	25	48→51	45→55	54→55	41	.236/.280/.363	.127	.294	12	17	24%	5%	77	+0.1	.226/.281/.375	.149	.300	15	14	29%	6%	82	+0.5	.212/.275/.369	.157	.290	15	14	31%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Luis Rivas 2005 · MLB	25	51→55	46→50	57→55	47	.251/.294/.394	.143	.275	12	19	14%	5%	92	+1.2	.234/.275/.348	.114	.263	10	14	15%	5%	71	-0.3	.223/.278/.325	.102	.251	9	11	15%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	45→51	47→50	55	43	.226/.286/.367	.140	.285	15	20	26%	6%	82	+0.5	.225/.281/.361	.136	.280	13	17	23%	6%	78	+0.2	.230/.281/.348	.118	.274	10	11	19%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Yairo Muñoz 2020 · MLB	25	52→54	46→50	49→55	43	.257/.301/.388	.132	.310	14	16	22%	6%	93	+1.3	.263/.298/.383	.120	.315	12	19	20%	4%	90	+1.0	.271/.296/.381	.110	.318	11	23	18%	3%	84	+0.4
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	49→53	47→50	53→60	49	.244/.301/.391	.147	.283	14	19	19%	7%	94	+1.3	.254/.313/.381	.127	.296	12	20	17%	8%	96	+1.5	.260/.315/.371	.111	.303	9	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	44→51	48→50	57→55	38	.223/.274/.360	.137	.299	16	23	30%	5%	75	-0.0	.235/.299/.376	.141	.317	15	23	29%	7%	90	+1.0	.235/.305/.385	.150	.317	15	24	29%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Dustin Fowler 2019 · MLB	24	49→52	47→55	56→55	39	.246/.272/.394	.147	.294	14	20	22%	3%	82	+0.5	.223/.265/.361	.138	.298	16	13	30%	5%	71	-0.3	.207/.255/.345	.139	.287	18	9	34%	5%	60	-0.7
✕Alen Hanson 2019 · MLB	26	50→51	47→50	58→60	42	.249/.285/.393	.144	.294	13	25	21%	5%	87	+0.8	.220/.264/.344	.124	.278	12	17	25%	5%	66	-0.6	.189/.235/.277	.088	.250	6	17	26%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Chris Heisey 2010 · AAA	25	50→52	47→55	56→55	46	.250/.305/.394	.143	.287	14	17	18%	6%	96	+1.5	.247/.304/.409	.162	.295	19	12	23%	6%	101	+1.8	.244/.302/.405	.161	.299	20	9	25%	6%	94	+0.7
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	49→55	48→55	59→60	43	.246/.298/.399	.154	.298	14	21	22%	6%	95	+1.4	.231/.296/.355	.124	.300	11	15	25%	7%	82	+0.5	.239/.281/.377	.139	.307	10	8	25%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Abiatal Avelino 2021 · AAA	26	47→51	45	55	39	.236/.265/.358	.122	.289	13	19	23%	4%	69	-0.4	.229/.279/.340	.111	.278	11	17	21%	6%	71	-0.3	.225/.281/.329	.104	.271	10	18	20%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→50	46→50	53→60	44	.243/.314/.376	.133	.300	13	23	23%	6%	96	+1.5	.225/.299/.335	.110	.291	9	19	25%	7%	79	+0.3	.280/.351/.382	.102	.349	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.8
✕Oscar Castaneda 2008 · AAA	25	50	43→40	55	42	.242/.298/.351	.109	.303	10	19	23%	5%	82	+0.5	.223/.283/.305	.082	.280	6	12	21%	6%	64	-0.8	.202/.270/.243	.041	.257	0	4	20%	7%	39	-0.5
✕Luis Jimenez 2013 · AAA	25	47→48	49→60	49→50	41	.238/.269/.393	.155	.265	16	14	18%	3%	81	+0.4	.226/.256/.351	.125	.264	13	14	20%	3%	64	-0.8	.221/.251/.340	.119	.260	12	13	20%	3%	58	-0.9
✕Hernán Pérez 2017 · MLB	26	51→56	43→50	57→55	41	.250/.279/.365	.115	.293	11	26	19%	4%	77	+0.1	.252/.286/.393	.141	.298	16	21	21%	5%	88	+0.9	.246/.284/.390	.144	.290	17	18	21%	5%	83	+0.4
✕Mikie Mahtook 2016 · MLB	26	47→55	45→55	53→50	39	.232/.281/.362	.130	.303	11	16	27%	5%	78	+0.2	.236/.286/.379	.143	.308	14	11	27%	5%	85	+0.7	.225/.289/.402	.177	.276	22	12	27%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Josh Rutledge 2014 · MLB	25	52→59	47→50	54→50	42	.257/.302/.402	.145	.310	14	15	22%	5%	98	+1.6	.242/.294/.356	.114	.313	9	9	25%	6%	82	+0.5	.232/.287/.324	.092	.315	6	4	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Craig Stansberry 2007 · AAA	25	43→47	49→50	54→50	46	.217/.282/.374	.157	.269	15	15	25%	7%	82	+0.5	.218/.287/.345	.127	.270	12	11	23%	8%	76	+0.1	.217/.287/.328	.112	.266	10	9	21%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	42→45	48→55	53→55	42	.211/.281/.356	.145	.286	15	18	30%	7%	77	+0.1	.214/.276/.349	.135	.289	15	21	30%	7%	73	-0.1	.220/.291/.388	.168	.274	20	25	27%	8%	88	+0.6
✕Lewis Brinson 2019 · MLB	25	42→52	50→55	51→50	40	.217/.262/.371	.153	.271	18	11	27%	5%	72	-0.2	.206/.261/.338	.132	.283	14	12	31%	5%	63	-0.8	.225/.267/.399	.174	.293	23	8	31%	5%	79	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)