Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne RafaelaCF Boston Red Sox

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 2.203S2 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION368 act + 245 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 8491vR 107

AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .304 / .412

PA245

HR6

SB10

K%22

BB%4

BABIP311

ISO153

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

3612.5%

xwOBA

340.290

POWER50

Barrel%

457.5

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

3369.5

EYE20

Chase%

2935.8%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1251 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

338

913

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

293

305

▶R

ISO

169

143

◀◀L

BABIP

299

305

—

28.1%

21.0%

▶▶R

BB%

3.8%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.2	$10M	+$7M
2027	Ext	$6M	+3.3	$24M	+$19M
2028	Ext	$6M	+3.2	$22M	+$17M
2029	Ext	$6M	+3.0	$19M	+$15M
2030	Ext	$6M	+2.8	$17M	+$12M
2031	Ext	$6M	+2.4	$13M	+$9M
Totals		$34M		$105M	+$80M

Options · projected decision
2032	CLUB OPT	$6.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$16.0M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 1	—	225	208	41	6	1	2	9	56	4	19	7	197	244	264	509	67	255	25	4	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 1	—	225	203	55	9	2	3	14	39	4	19	7	271	330	379	710	108	317	17	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	176	158	30	1	3	5	9	40	5	9	2	190	256	329	585	139	219	23	5	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	176	153	38	1	4	6	14	28	5	9	2	248	331	425	756	176	267	16	8	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	432	403	89	15	9	11	16	113	7	23	3	221	263	385	648	164	276	26	4	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	432	394	99	20	9	10	25	79	7	23	3	251	308	424	731	173	288	18	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA	3 teams	—	598	561	140	28	8	20	20	163	10	33	9	250	288	435	723	185	312	27	3	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA	3 teams	—	598	546	161	36	10	22	35	129	10	33	9	295	349	518	867	223	347	22	6	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	3 teams	—	574	536	133	24	3	18	21	154	10	39	14	248	289	405	694	157	311	27	4	300	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	3 teams	—	574	527	154	37	3	22	30	131	10	39	14	292	342	499	841	207	347	23	5	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	571	544	130	21	6	15	15	151	7	19	10	239	269	382	651	143	302	26	3	280	72	-18	-0	+1	+6	+16	0.6
2024	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	571	544	134	23	5	15	15	151	7	19	10	246	276	390	665	143	312	26	3	292	82	-12	-0	+1	+6	+16	1.2
2025	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	587	546	131	30	5	16	28	117	8	20	5	240	287	401	688	161	277	20	5	298	86	-9	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.0
2025	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	587	546	136	34	4	16	28	117	8	20	5	249	296	414	709	165	289	20	5	312	97	-2	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	MLB	BOS	—	368	342	96	22	3	8	18	73	6	12	6	281	328	433	761	152	337	20	5	333	113	+5	+0	+0	+1	+10	1.8
YTD	25	MLB	BOS	—	368	342	96	22	3	8	18	73	6	12	6	281	328	433	761	152	337	20	5	336	115	+6	+0	+0	+1	+10	1.9
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	100%	245	228	59	13	2	6	11	53	4	10	3	258	304	412	716	153	307	22	4	313	98	-1	+1	+5	+1	+7	1.3
ROS	25	MLB	BOS	100%	245	228	61	14	2	6	11	53	4	10	3	268	313	425	738	158	315	22	4	307	93	-2	+1	+5	+1	+7	1.2
FULL	25	MLB	BOS	—	613	570	157	36	5	14	29	126	10	22	9	275	322	430	752	154	332	21	5	322	105	+3	+1	+5	+2	+17	3.0
TOT	25	MLB	BOS	—	613	570	155	35	5	14	29	126	10	22	9	272	318	424	743	153	327	21	5	325	107	+5	+1	+5	+2	+17	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	BOS	100%	601	559	141	31	4	15	28	129	9	25	8	252	299	403	701	150	302	21	5	310	96	-3	+2	+12	+2	+17	3.0
2028	27	MLB	BOS	100%	589	547	138	31	4	14	28	127	9	24	8	252	300	400	700	148	302	22	5	310	96	-3	+2	+11	+2	+17	3.0
2029	28	MLB	BOS	100%	577	535	135	30	4	14	28	125	9	23	7	252	301	402	703	150	302	22	5	310	95	-3	+2	+10	+2	+16	2.8
2030	29	MLB	BOS	100%	566	526	131	29	4	13	27	124	8	21	6	249	296	394	689	144	301	22	5	308	94	-4	+2	+10	+2	+16	2.6
2031	30	MLB	BOS	100%	554	514	128	28	4	13	27	123	8	18	6	249	297	395	692	146	300	22	5	305	92	-5	+1	+9	+2	+16	2.3
2032	31	MLB	BOS	100%	543	504	124	27	4	12	26	122	8	16	5	246	294	387	681	141	298	22	5	301	88	-7	+1	+8	+2	+15	2.0
2027	26	MLB	BOS	100%	601	559	145	33	4	15	28	129	9	25	8	259	305	413	719	154	309	21	5	305	91	-6	+2	+12	+2	+17	2.7
2028	27	MLB	BOS	100%	589	547	141	32	4	14	28	127	9	24	8	258	305	408	712	150	309	22	5	305	92	-6	+2	+11	+2	+17	2.7
2029	28	MLB	BOS	100%	577	535	139	32	4	14	28	125	9	23	7	260	308	413	721	153	309	22	5	304	91	-6	+2	+10	+2	+16	2.5
2030	29	MLB	BOS	100%	566	526	135	31	4	13	27	124	8	21	6	257	303	405	708	148	308	22	5	302	90	-7	+2	+10	+2	+16	2.3
2031	30	MLB	BOS	100%	554	514	130	30	3	13	27	123	8	18	6	253	301	399	699	146	307	22	5	300	88	-8	+1	+9	+2	+16	2.0
2032	31	MLB	BOS	100%	543	504	126	29	3	12	26	122	8	16	5	250	297	391	688	141	305	22	5	296	84	-10	+1	+8	+2	+15	1.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4922	4586	1167	264	33	120	222	1099	71	179	59	254	299	405	704	150	309	22	5	302	89	-59	+12	+84	+23	+139	20.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	154	35	4	16	29	145	9	24	8	254	298	404	702	150	308	22	4	302	89	-8	+2	+11	+3	+18	2.7
Career	—			—	6838	6369	1550	314	61	174	293	1597	106	299	93	243	288	394	682	150	296	23	4	297	85	-113	+23	+84	+29	+194	22.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	148	30	6	17	28	152	10	28	9	245	289	398	687	154	298	23	4	297	85	-11	+2	+8	+3	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 1	—	225	203	55	9	2	3	14	39	4	19	7	271	330	379	710	108	317	17	6	315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+6	0.7
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	176	153	38	1	4	6	14	28	5	9	2	248	331	425	756	176	267	16	8	330	111	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	432	394	99	20	9	10	25	79	7	23	3	251	308	424	731	173	288	18	6	319	102	+1	+3	—	—	+12	1.7
2022	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	313	284	79	15	6	12	16	62	6	14	5	278	330	500	830	222	310	20	5	355	130	+11	+1	—	—	+9	2.1
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	209	197	65	17	4	9	10	51	2	14	2	330	368	594	962	264	409	24	5	417	177	+18	+2	—	—	+6	2.7
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	76	65	17	4	0	1	9	16	2	5	2	262	368	369	738	108	333	21	12	340	118	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	89	83	20	6	0	2	4	28	1	3	1	241	284	386	670	145	333	31	4	295	84	-2	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.4
2023	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	219	199	62	13	3	14	12	48	7	6	5	312	372	618	990	307	348	22	5	425	184	+21	-1	—	—	+6	2.7
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	266	245	72	18	0	6	14	55	2	30	8	294	337	441	778	147	351	21	5	339	118	+5	+3	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	571	544	134	23	5	15	15	151	7	19	10	246	276	390	665	143	312	26	3	292	82	-12	-0	+1	+6	+16	1.2
2025	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	587	546	136	34	4	16	28	117	8	20	5	249	296	414	709	165	289	20	5	312	97	-2	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1247	1173	290	63	9	33	47	296	16	42	16	247	286	401	686	153	302	24	4	302	89	-16	+2	+20	+10	+35	5.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	13	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
	/162	664	18	34	252	313	411	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
#2B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#3Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	10	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
	/162	664	17	32	254	292	403	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,656	138	211	252	293	401	+20	+63	14.7	13.2
	/162	664	16	25	252	293	401	+2.4	+7.4	1.7	pk7: 12
#4Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ceddanne Rafaela (OGILVIE)	25	45	50	60	20	272/318/424	153	327	14	22	21%	5%	107	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	51→54	46→55	55→60	45	253/304/385	132	302	13	27	21%	6%	94	+1.3	229/291/369	140	269	14	21	20%	7%	85	+0.7	226/292/376	150	266	15	26	21%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2017 · MLB	26	52→55	45→55	58→55	41	256/285/383	127	301	12	28	20%	4%	85	+0.7	254/289/405	151	298	18	21	21%	5%	92	+1.2	248/285/401	153	290	19	18	21%	5%	87	+0.5
✕Jake Marisnick 2016 · MLB	25	47→52	45→60	56→55	39	234/278/357	123	300	12	29	26%	4%	76	+0.0	223/278/380	157	296	18	21	30%	6%	82	+0.5	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Alen Hanson 2019 · MLB	26	51	48→50	57→60	42	254/290/407	152	300	14	23	21%	4%	93	+1.3	224/268/349	125	284	12	16	25%	5%	69	-0.4	198/243/294	96	261	7	17	26%	5%	39	-0.8
●Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→53	48→50	58→55	39	226/277/363	137	302	16	24	30%	5%	77	+0.1	238/304/383	145	322	15	23	29%	7%	93	+1.3	238/308/389	151	322	15	24	29%	7%	91	+0.8
✕Josh Rutledge 2014 · MLB	25	49→58	47→50	55→50	42	245/291/385	141	294	14	15	22%	5%	89	+0.9	232/285/339	107	306	8	9	26%	6%	73	-0.1	223/279/311	88	306	6	4	27%	6%	61	-0.5
●Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→54	47→50	53→60	44	242/314/383	141	299	14	22	23%	6%	98	+1.6	225/298/334	109	291	9	19	25%	7%	79	+0.3	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	50→53	48→50	54→60	49	248/306/401	154	286	15	19	19%	8%	98	+1.6	251/311/380	129	291	12	20	17%	8%	95	+1.4	256/312/371	114	298	10	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Nick Senzel 2020 · MLB	25	50→56	48→50	52→50	44	248/302/398	150	317	15	16	26%	7%	96	+1.5	233/292/355	122	281	12	13	20%	7%	81	+0.4	215/285/349	134	257	17	9	23%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Luis Rivas 2005 · MLB	25	51→55	47→50	58→55	47	251/293/397	146	274	13	20	14%	5%	92	+1.2	232/274/343	111	262	10	14	15%	5%	69	-0.4	223/278/325	101	251	9	11	15%	6%	64	-0.4
●Scott Kingery 2019 · MLB	25	46→51	45→55	54→55	41	229/272/355	126	287	12	17	24%	5%	72	-0.2	224/280/381	157	299	16	14	29%	7%	82	+0.5	216/278/389	173	293	17	14	31%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	45→53	48→50	56→55	44	227/289/370	143	286	15	20	26%	7%	84	+0.6	231/286/374	143	286	13	16	23%	6%	83	+0.6	242/292/371	130	288	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→48	49→55	58→60	40	227/283/383	156	332	16	25	35%	7%	84	+0.6	218/290/386	168	342	19	35	39%	9%	89	+0.9	199/280/366	166	324	20	40	42%	9%	77	+0.1
●Jordany Valdespin 2013 · MLB	25	50→53	48→50	51→55	40	252/286/395	143	295	16	26	21%	4%	89	+0.9	247/301/380	133	280	14	20	17%	6%	91	+1.1	250/309/365	115	280	11	17	15%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Chris Owings 2018 · MLB	26	52→59	46→50	58→55	42	257/295/399	142	313	12	20	22%	5%	93	+1.3	225/277/357	132	297	14	16	28%	6%	76	+0.0	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Chris Heisey 2010 · AAA	25	51→52	48→55	56→55	47	252/308/399	147	288	14	18	18%	6%	99	+1.7	247/304/412	165	296	20	12	23%	6%	102	+1.8	244/303/410	166	298	20	9	25%	6%	96	+0.8
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	46→45	55→70	46	221/294/354	133	287	14	29	27%	8%	82	+0.5	225/330/346	121	289	12	41	24%	11%	96	+1.5	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	43→45	49→55	53→55	42	219/285/370	151	290	16	19	30%	7%	82	+0.5	213/277/349	136	287	15	21	30%	7%	73	-0.1	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1