Nick Gordon

LF Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 31 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	MLBMIN	93	.176/.185/.319	2	0	33	-0.5
2024	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	98	.247/.302/.315	1	2	55	—	.247/.295/.329
2024	28	MLBMIA	275	.227/.261/.369	8	5	80	-0.8
2025	29	AAAKC	69	.270/.333/.333	0	3	38	—	.200/.246/.246
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBKC	12	.220/.266/.339	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBKC	31	.215/.259/.326	1	0	66	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Speed55

xwOBA49

Barrel%47

Avg EV47

Bat Spd21

CompsDavid Matranga (age 31) · Jack López (age 31) · Jason Smith (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5871vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .266 / .339

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP280

ISO138

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT40

xAVG

400.243

POWER45

Barrel%

477.8

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

2168.2

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024 · 275 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

247

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

254

276

▶R

ISO

185

137

◀◀L

BABIP

200

280

▶▶R

21.4%

24.7%

◀L

BB%

3.6%

4.0%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	256	235	69	6	4	1	11	45	5	11	7	294	337	366	703	72	352	18	4	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	535	481	133	23	7	1	39	87	6	25	8	277	337	360	697	83	332	16	7	312	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	494	461	134	23	6	3	23	87	8	19	13	291	335	386	721	95	353	18	5	323	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	91	81	28	4	2	0	8	22	2	5	4	346	418	444	862	99	475	24	9	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	578	519	140	29	8	9	53	134	4	13	7	270	342	408	750	139	347	23	9	335	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	410	382	81	13	4	2	23	82	3	13	3	212	262	283	545	71	264	20	6	248	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	181	162	54	10	3	5	11	27	4	7	2	333	390	525	915	191	366	15	6	394	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	319	292	87	29	3	4	18	65	4	14	4	298	347	459	806	161	364	20	6	351	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	216	200	48	9	1	4	12	55	3	10	1	240	293	355	648	115	310	25	6	291	83	-4	+2	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2021	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	77	71	20	0	1	3	6	12	0	7	2	282	338	437	774	155	304	16	8	344	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	443	405	110	28	4	9	19	105	10	6	4	272	320	427	747	156	340	24	4	325	105	+3	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2023	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	93	91	16	5	1	2	1	11	0	0	0	176	185	319	503	143	179	12	1	216	33	-7	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.5
2023	27	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	23	20	2	1	0	0	2	7	1	0	1	100	217	150	367	50	154	30	9	188	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	275	260	59	11	1	8	11	67	1	5	5	227	261	369	630	142	271	24	4	277	80	-6	-1	-2	-4	+6	-0.8
2024	28	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	80	72	19	1	1	1	3	16	3	2	2	264	321	347	668	83	316	20	4	297	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	18	17	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	1	176	222	176	399		231	22	6	190	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	63	17	4	0	0	6	22	0	3	2	270	333	333	667	63	415	32	9	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1027	956	233	53	7	23	43	238	14	21	10	244	286	386	672	142	298	23	4	295	86	-17	+0	-6	-7	+22	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	256	241	57	4	3	1	6	64	5	11	7	237	270	290	560	54	307	25	2	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	535	495	123	20	6	1	27	124	6	25	8	248	295	319	615	71	318	23	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	494	468	124	22	5	3	17	125	8	19	13	265	302	353	655	88	356	25	3	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	578	533	126	25	7	7	39	162	4	13	7	236	293	349	642	113	324	28	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	410	389	73	11	3	2	16	100	3	13	3	188	225	247	472	59	248	24	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	181	166	49	10	3	4	7	34	4	7	2	295	339	464	803	169	330	19	4	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	319	298	80	23	3	4	12	78	4	14	4	268	306	406	712	138	335	24	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	216	200	48	9	1	4	12	55	3	10	1	240	293	355	648	115	310	25	6	291	83	-4	+2	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	77	73	18	0	1	2	4	15	0	7	2	247	286	356	642	110	276	19	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	443	406	110	28	4	9	18	105	10	6	4	271	318	426	744	155	340	24	4	324	105	+3	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	93	91	16	5	1	2	1	11	0	0	0	176	185	319	503	143	179	12	1	216	33	-7	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.5
2023	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	23	21	2	1	0	0	1	9	1	0	1	95	174	143	317	48	121	39	4	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	275	260	61	12	1	8	11	67	1	5	5	235	268	381	649	146	271	24	4	287	80	-6	-1	-2	-4	+6	-0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	80	73	18	1	1	1	2	19	3	2	2	247	295	329	624	82	290	24	2	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	65	13	3	0	0	4	26	0	3	2	200	246	246	493	46	337	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	256	241	57	4	3	1	6	64	5	11	7	237	270	290	560	54	311	25	2	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	256	235	69	6	4	1	11	45	5	11	7	294	337	366	703	72	352	18	4	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	535	495	123	20	6	1	27	124	6	25	8	248	295	319	615	71	326	23	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	535	481	133	23	7	1	39	87	6	25	8	277	337	360	697	83	332	16	7	312	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	585	554	147	26	6	3	20	149	10	24	17	265	303	350	653	85	358	25	3	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	585	542	162	27	8	3	31	109	10	24	17	299	348	395	742	96	370	19	5	333	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	578	533	126	25	7	7	39	162	4	13	7	236	293	349	642	113	325	28	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	578	519	140	29	8	9	53	134	4	13	7	270	342	408	750	139	347	23	9	335	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	591	555	123	21	6	6	23	135	7	20	5	222	262	314	575	92	279	23	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	591	544	135	23	7	7	34	109	7	20	5	248	301	355	656	107	296	18	6	293	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	319	298	80	23	3	4	12	78	4	14	4	268	306	406	712	138	344	24	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	319	292	87	29	3	4	18	65	4	14	4	298	347	459	806	161	364	20	6	351	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	273	66	9	2	6	16	70	3	17	3	242	291	355	646	114	303	24	5	286	80	-7	+2	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	293	271	68	9	2	7	18	67	3	17	3	251	305	376	681	125	308	23	6	305	80	-7	+2	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2022	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	443	406	110	28	4	9	18	105	10	6	4	271	318	426	744	155	339	24	4	324	105	+3	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2022	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	443	405	110	28	4	9	19	105	10	6	4	272	320	427	747	156	340	24	4	325	105	+3	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	116	112	18	6	1	2	2	20	1	0	1	161	183	286	468	125	178	17	2	200	21	-11	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.9
2023	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	116	111	18	6	1	2	3	18	1	0	1	162	191	288	480	126	176	16	3	211	21	-11	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	373	350	83	14	2	10	14	91	4	7	8	237	274	374	649	137	287	24	4	282	77	-10	-2	-2	-4	+8	-1.0
2024	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	373	349	81	12	2	9	15	87	4	7	8	232	272	355	627	123	279	23	4	277	77	-10	-2	-2	-4	+8	-1.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	65	13	3	0	0	4	26	0	3	2	200	246	246	493	46	333	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	63	17	4	0	0	6	22	0	3	2	270	333	333	667	63	415	32	9	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	256	243	57	4	3	1	6	64	5	11	7	235	270	288	558	53	307	25	2	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	535	497	123	20	6	1	27	124	6	25	8	247	295	318	613	70	318	23	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	585	550	147	26	6	3	20	149	10	24	17	267	303	353	656	85	356	25	3	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	578	530	126	25	7	7	39	162	4	13	7	238	293	351	644	113	324	28	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	591	556	123	21	6	6	23	135	7	20	5	221	262	313	574	92	273	23	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	319	300	80	23	3	4	12	78	4	14	4	267	306	403	709	137	335	24	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	272	66	9	2	6	16	70	3	17	3	243	291	357	648	114	301	24	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	443	412	110	28	4	9	18	105	10	6	4	267	318	420	738	153	340	24	4	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	116	112	18	6	1	2	2	20	1	0	1	161	183	286	468	125	168	17	2	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	373	352	83	14	2	10	14	91	4	7	8	236	274	372	647	136	275	24	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	65	13	3	0	0	4	26	0	3	2	200	246	246	493	46	337	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	373	352	83	14	2	10	14	91	4	7	8	236	274	372	647	136	275	24	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	69	65	13	3	0	0	4	26	0	3	2	200	246	246	493	46	337	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	10%	200	186	43	8	1	5	10	52	2	5	1	223	269	347	615	124	282	26	5	274	71	-7	+1	+0	-2	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	KC	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	220	266	339	605	119	280	25	8	270	71	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	27%	112	105	23	4	1	2	5	30	1	2	0	217	262	333	595	116	277	27	4	265	66	-5	+0	-3	-1	+2	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	27%	31	30	6	1	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	215	259	326	585	111	275	26	3	261	66	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1058	986	239	54	7	24	44	246	14	21	10	242	284	384	669	142	296	23	4	294	74	-18	+0	-7	-8	+23	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	147	33	4	15	27	151	9	13	6	243	285	384	670	142	296	23	4	294	74	-11	+0	-4	-5	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4394	4103	996	188	42	54	192	1086	56	145	67	243	286	349	634	106	314	25	4	278	74	-26	+1	-9	-10	+27	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	607	147	28	6	8	28	161	8	21	10	242	284	348	632	105	314	25	4	278	74	-13	+0	-5	-5	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 69 PAwOBA .298 → .224 (−74)K% 31.9% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.88%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	37.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.71%	÷1.108	×0.930	—	×0.972	25.86%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.006	×0.830	—	×0.972	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .298 → .224; ISO .063 → .048; BABIP .415 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 80 PAwOBA .297 → .263 (−34)K% 20.0% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.75%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.982	2.53%
HBP% /PA	3.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	3.46%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.027	×0.982	26.38%
Doubles /BIP	1.79%	÷0.970	×0.830	×1.027	×0.982	1.54%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷0.985	×0.970	×1.027	×0.982	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷0.925	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .297 → .263; ISO .083 → .071; BABIP .316 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 23 PAwOBA .184 → .133 (−51)K% 30.4% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.43%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	37.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.58%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	4.05%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.964	×0.930	—	×0.992	7.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.341	×0.830	—	×0.992	4.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .184 → .133; ISO .050 → .029; BABIP .154 → .121. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 77 PAwOBA .335 → .273 (−62)K% 15.6% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.58%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.79%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.35%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.005	×1.018	24.92%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.005	×1.018	0.00%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.005	×1.018	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	5.08%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.23%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .335 → .273; ISO .155 → .109; BABIP .304 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 319 PAwOBA .347 → .304 (−43)K% 20.4% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.38%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.64%	÷1.095	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.73%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.24%
Singles /BIP	22.47%	÷0.982	×0.930	×0.992	×1.048	22.13%
Doubles /BIP	12.78%	÷1.063	×0.830	×0.992	×1.048	10.37%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.992	×1.048	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	1.76%	÷0.958	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .347 → .304; ISO .161 → .135; BABIP .364 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 410 PAwOBA .242 → .212 (−30)K% 20.0% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.61%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.03%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.72%
Singles /BIP	20.67%	÷1.023	×0.930	×1.004	×1.050	19.80%
Doubles /BIP	4.33%	÷1.009	×0.830	×1.004	×1.050	3.76%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.004	×1.050	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	0.67%	÷0.879	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.67%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .242 → .212; ISO .071 → .062; BABIP .264 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 181 PAwOBA .392 → .345 (−47)K% 14.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.92%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.08%	÷1.078	×0.680	—	×1.027	3.94%
HBP% /PA	2.21%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.91%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.072	×0.920	×1.004	×1.027	23.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.979	×0.910	×1.004	×1.027	7.10%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.004	×1.027	2.24%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.975	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.12%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 114, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .392 → .345; ISO .191 → .176; BABIP .366 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 578 PAwOBA .327 → .284 (−43)K% 23.2% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.18%	÷1.008	×1.220	—	—	28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.82%	÷0.940	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.65%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.61%
Singles /BIP	24.42%	÷1.007	×0.920	×1.006	×1.042	23.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.084	×0.910	×1.006	×1.042	6.63%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.018	×0.880	×1.006	×1.042	1.88%
Home runs /BIP	2.34%	÷0.975	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 117, 3B 104, K 102, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .327 → .284; ISO .139 → .118; BABIP .347 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.6	1,070	24	22	242	282	383	-11	-8	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	15	13	-6.7	-4.8	-0.0	pk7: -0
#5Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#6Carlos Martinez'88-'95 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,586 PA	2.4	1,586	25	10	256*	291*	383*	-18	-15	-2.5	-2.5
/162	664	10	4	-7.4	-6.2	-1.0	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Gordon (OGILVIE)	31	40	45	55	25	221/266/344	123	282	3	3	26%	5%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	39	46→45	51→50	43	203/270/324	121	261	14	13	28%	7%	69	-0.9	213/288/335	122	287	13	9	29%	8%	78	-0.3	202/285/316	114	275	11	5	29%	8%	71	-0.3
✕Jack López 2024 · MLB	31	41→45	44→45	53→55	35	204/245/325	121	287	11	16	33%	4%	58	-1.7	210/251/314	104	298	11	15	32%	4%	57	-1.8	203/242/290	87	289	10	16	32%	4%	47	-1.9
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→33	48→55	53→50	39	224/268/373	149	293	16	14	29%	5%	78	-0.3	201/237/345	144	284	17	8	35%	4%	60	-1.6	173/202/300	127	246	16	7	37%	3%	35	-1.9
✕Seth Bynum 2012 · AAA	31	40→43	48→50	51→50	38	210/256/349	140	281	17	13	32%	6%	69	-0.9	200/252/318	118	290	13	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	171/223/270	99	255	10	6	36%	5%	35	-2.3
✕Kristopher Negrón 2017 · MLB	31	43→49	43→45	54→55	39	212/262/322	110	273	10	19	26%	5%	64	-1.3	218/275/340	122	302	13	15	31%	6%	74	-0.6	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Pete Orr 2010 · MLB	31	46→45	41→45	56→55	41	224/266/327	104	272	7	20	21%	4%	66	-1.1	220/263/328	108	268	8	22	21%	4%	65	-1.2	228/255/314	86	291	5	16	23%	3%	55	-1.2
✕Cole Sturgeon 2022 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	49→50	41	235/288/365	129	307	13	11	27%	6%	84	+0.1	212/264/313	101	254	10	12	20%	6%	63	-1.4	198/249/284	86	234	8	11	19%	6%	48	-2.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2024 · MLB	31	38→42	49→50	47→45	35	203/245/340	137	266	18	7	31%	4%	63	-1.4	186/247/317	131	264	17	7	35%	6%	59	-1.7	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	45→55	45→50	55	42	225/269/346	121	280	13	19	25%	6%	72	-0.7	237/286/384	147	290	17	19	24%	6%	87	+0.4	243/292/403	159	292	20	19	24%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Anton French 2006 · AAA	31	46	46→55	60	39	229/264/366	137	292	12	18	26%	4%	74	-0.5	231/284/373	142	280	14	23	22%	7%	84	+0.1	243/296/400	157	286	17	30	21%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	44→45	47→40	43	210/265/323	113	259	13	8	24%	6%	66	-1.1	215/266/326	111	284	12	7	28%	6%	67	-1.1	207/257/302	95	280	10	3	29%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2024 · AAA	30	38→48	48→50	46→45	42	198/260/344	146	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.9	216/277/347	131	281	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	227/285/352	125	285	12	9	24%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→49	44→45	53→50	41	199/253/314	114	272	13	12	31%	7%	59	-1.7	206/267/313	107	288	12	10	31%	8%	64	-1.3	187/251/272	85	261	10	8	31%	8%	46	-0.9
✕Jake Hager 2024 · MLB	31	42→52	43→50	48→50	43	207/263/322	115	273	9	9	27%	7%	65	-1.2	209/259/319	110	305	9	8	33%	6%	62	-1.4	165/202/234	69	270	5	0	40%	4%	17	-1.0
✕Val Majewski 2012 · AAA	31	46→54	46→45	50	46	231/289/361	130	284	14	11	24%	7%	83	+0.1	217/268/315	98	265	7	9	20%	6%	64	-1.3	196/241/265	68	238	1	5	17%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Corey Smith 2012 · AAA	30	42→45	44→50	48→50	39	211/251/327	116	268	12	8	26%	5%	61	-1.5	220/264/355	135	279	15	7	26%	5%	73	-0.6	217/260/370	153	264	18	4	25%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Pedro Florimón 2018 · MLB	31	46→53	43→45	50→55	39	221/274/331	110	317	10	13	32%	6%	70	-0.8	214/275/336	122	322	13	7	35%	7%	72	-0.7	184/252/294	110	287	11	8	37%	8%	53	-1.1
✕Johnny Monell 2016 · MLB	30	47→43	44→50	48→45	46	233/288/347	114	287	11	9	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/276/349	123	280	13	6	24%	6%	76	-0.4	215/264/337	122	269	13	2	25%	6%	66	-0.6
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	45→50	50→55	44	196/263/321	125	267	13	12	31%	8%	65	-1.2	199/271/320	121	287	14	11	33%	8%	68	-1.0	187/264/301	114	271	13	11	34%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Sherman Johnson 2021 · AAA	31	42→49	43→45	46→50	45	208/273/316	109	285	10	10	30%	8%	68	-1.0	200/286/307	107	285	9	9	30%	9%	71	-0.8	156/262/243	88	226	7	5	31%	11%	46	-1.2

Nick Gordon

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps