Cole Sturgeon
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 530 | .264/.343/.392 | 9 | 15 | 79 | — | .235/.279/.320 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 379 | .277/.337/.426 | 10 | 6 | 77 | — | .243/.291/.366 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA/AAMIN | 486 | .248/.320/.366 | 9 | 11 | 49 | — | .200/.254/.287 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 207 | 183 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 284 | 350 | 372 | 721 | 87 | 329 | 15 | 8 | 322 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 144 | 133 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 203 | 232 | 278 | 510 | 75 | 260 | 21 | 3 | 220 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 311 | 287 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 265 | 310 | 359 | 669 | 94 | 298 | 13 | 6 | 297 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 457 | 427 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 61 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 267 | 312 | 370 | 682 | 103 | 300 | 13 | 5 | 305 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 460 | 406 | 107 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 86 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 264 | 331 | 379 | 710 | 116 | 315 | 19 | 8 | 312 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 263 | 238 | 51 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 61 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 214 | 278 | 286 | 564 | 71 | 274 | 23 | 7 | 256 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 140 | 126 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 365 | 424 | 579 | 1.004 | 214 | 396 | 14 | 9 | 437 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 127 | 105 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 386 | 410 | 795 | 152 | 346 | 21 | 17 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 379 | 343 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 86 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 277 | 337 | 426 | 763 | 149 | 340 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 194 | 174 | 43 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 247 | 314 | 351 | 665 | 103 | 288 | 15 | 8 | 296 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 292 | 261 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 249 | 324 | 375 | 700 | 126 | 271 | 15 | 9 | 315 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 207 | 190 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 300 | 326 | 627 | 74 | 298 | 21 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 144 | 135 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 200 | 217 | 267 | 484 | 67 | 260 | 26 | 2 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 311 | 294 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 231 | 261 | 310 | 571 | 78 | 272 | 19 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 457 | 436 | 102 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 234 | 266 | 307 | 573 | 73 | 275 | 16 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 460 | 420 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 108 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 243 | 289 | 338 | 627 | 95 | 294 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 263 | 245 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 74 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 192 | 236 | 245 | 480 | 53 | 255 | 28 | 5 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 140 | 130 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 315 | 360 | 462 | 821 | 146 | 364 | 18 | 6 | 358 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 379 | 350 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 103 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 243 | 291 | 366 | 657 | 123 | 308 | 27 | 4 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 194 | 179 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 201 | 251 | 279 | 531 | 78 | 239 | 19 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 292 | 270 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 200 | 255 | 293 | 548 | 93 | 226 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 207 | 190 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 300 | 326 | 627 | 74 | 313 | 21 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 207 | 183 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 284 | 350 | 372 | 721 | 87 | 329 | 15 | 8 | 322 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 429 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 96 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 221 | 248 | 296 | 544 | 75 | 277 | 21 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 420 | 103 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 70 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 245 | 286 | 333 | 619 | 88 | 287 | 15 | 5 | 273 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 457 | 436 | 102 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 234 | 266 | 307 | 573 | 73 | 277 | 16 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 457 | 427 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 61 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 267 | 312 | 370 | 682 | 103 | 300 | 13 | 5 | 305 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 460 | 420 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 108 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 243 | 289 | 338 | 627 | 95 | 309 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 460 | 406 | 107 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 86 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 264 | 331 | 379 | 710 | 116 | 315 | 19 | 8 | 312 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 530 | 496 | 116 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 129 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 234 | 276 | 319 | 595 | 85 | 299 | 24 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 530 | 469 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 108 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 264 | 343 | 392 | 735 | 128 | 325 | 20 | 10 | 329 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 379 | 350 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 103 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 243 | 291 | 366 | 657 | 123 | 318 | 27 | 4 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 379 | 343 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 86 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 277 | 337 | 426 | 763 | 149 | 340 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 449 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 93 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 200 | 254 | 287 | 541 | 87 | 235 | 19 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 486 | 435 | 108 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 74 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 248 | 320 | 366 | 686 | 117 | 278 | 15 | 8 | 308 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 207 | 192 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 300 | 323 | 623 | 73 | 298 | 21 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 437 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 96 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 217 | 248 | 291 | 538 | 73 | 268 | 21 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 457 | 435 | 102 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 234 | 266 | 308 | 574 | 74 | 275 | 16 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 460 | 430 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 108 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 237 | 289 | 330 | 619 | 93 | 294 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 530 | 496 | 116 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 129 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 234 | 276 | 319 | 595 | 85 | 293 | 24 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 379 | 352 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 103 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 241 | 291 | 364 | 655 | 122 | 308 | 27 | 4 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 451 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 93 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 200 | 254 | 286 | 540 | 86 | 231 | 19 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2974 | 2770 | 638 | 102 | 16 | 36 | 133 | 647 | 26 | 66 | 32 | 230 | 272 | 318 | 590 | 87 | 286 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | -144 | +0 | +0 | +11 | +64 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 139 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 141 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 230 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 86 | 285 | 22 | 4 | 256 | 59 | -31 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 292 PAwOBA .309 → .243 (−66)K% 15.4% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.41% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.940 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.940 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.940 | 18.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.001 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×0.940 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 2.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .309 → .243; ISO .126 → .097; BABIP .271 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 194 PAwOBA .292 → .234 (−58)K% 14.9% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.95% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.73% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×0.962 | 18.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.079 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.962 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.962 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.881 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .292 → .234; ISO .103 → .079; BABIP .288 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 379 PAwOBA .330 → .282 (−48)K% 22.7% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.69% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.33% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 23.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .282; ISO .149 → .123; BABIP .340 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 263 PAwOBA .249 → .210 (−39)K% 23.2% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.19% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 22.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .249 → .210; ISO .071 → .053; BABIP .274 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 140 PAwOBA .428 → .358 (−70)K% 14.3% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.25% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 28.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .428 → .358; ISO .214 → .153; BABIP .396 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 460 PAwOBA .308 → .268 (−40)K% 18.7% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.70% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.48% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.88% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .308 → .268; ISO .116 → .094; BABIP .315 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 457 PAwOBA .296 → .252 (−44)K% 13.3% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.35% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.60% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.50% | ÷1.040 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 21.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷0.997 | ×0.860 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.371 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .296 → .252; ISO .103 → .077; BABIP .300 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 311 PAwOBA .290 → .247 (−43)K% 12.9% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.86% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.79% | ÷1.036 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 3.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 21.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.67% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.21% | ÷0.841 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .290 → .247; ISO .094 → .083; BABIP .298 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .